Stuck in Neutral

Hey, did I miss anything?

I’ve been missing from the blog-o-sphere lately, as I had to meet some major deadlines so I could graduate on time. I’ve been fairly perplexed by the Tribe’s 14-17 start, although it’s nice to see Detroit (14-18) has been keeping us company in the basement. The first sign that it’s too early to panic is that Minnesota is currently in first place. Yeah…good luck with that. Today, I’ll sort through the Tribe’s first month and try to figure out why the offense has fallen flat so far. First,

What’s Up With Detroit?

The Tiger’s were struggling early on, but the offense seems to have gathered itself of late. Detroit’s offense has gone on a tear in its last ten games, averaging 6 runs per game compared to 4.38 in their first 21 contests. Considering their offseason additions and the fact Detroit averaged 5.47 runs per game in 2007, it’s not unreasonable to think the Tigers could sustain their current offensive production, albeit unlikely. I’ve said before that several of Detroit’s players had career years in 2007 and are due for some regression (Ordonez and Polanco come to mind), which would dull the impact Cabrera and Renteria might make on the lineup. Not to discount the addition of these two players, but I just don’t buy into the hype that Detroit garnered in the offseason. Their offense will still be very good, but I’d be surprised if they finish the season with more runs scored than they had last year.

The real reason Detroit has failed to capitalize on Cleveland’s slow start is their pitching. The Tiger’s starters have posted a pedestrian 5.39 ERA in 31 games, while their relief corps has just a 4.32 ERA. For a team with such a powerful offense, having a run differential of -15 points to some serious pitching issues. Verlander has gotten off to an improbably rough start (6.28 ERA, 1.44 WHIP), but like Sabathia nobody sees this as a long term trend. Fatigue shouldn’t be an issue considering the 25 year old Verlander averaged 193.8 innings the last two seasons with no ill effects. It seems the Tiger’s ace is just in a rough stretch right now. As bad as Detroit’s pitching has been, there’s no way it will continue to be this bad. Six starts is still too soon to panic and Robertson and Rogers have been so bad they are bound to bounce back. Willis had only 5 innings logged before hyper-extending his knee and has had a more than adequate replacement in Armando Galarraga.

It’s unclear just how far Robertson and Rogers may fall before recovering and Willis has yet to prove himself in the AL. Detroit’s pitching will recover, but they won’t be particularly scary this season. A slew of health issues in the bullpen only compounds the struggles of the starters. Unfortunately for the Tribe, the Tiger’s pitching can get away with being mediocre as the team’s offense should pick up the slack more often than not.

I think it’s important to remember that Detroit has played just as poorly as Cleveland so far, but is still an extremely dangerous team. Detroit’s struggles can be good or bad, depending on your point of view. Cleveland certainly caught a break with Detroit’s pitching slump, as they could easily be down by five or eight games right now. Then again, so could Detroit. It’s almost as if Detroit and Cleveland are trying to recreate their stalemate from late last season where neither team could win a game, even with the division on the line. It’s far too early to make a prediction, but the team that shifts out of neutral first could create a buffer that ends up deciding the division later on.

On the Offense

The biggest factor behind Cleveland’s current rut is its inconsistent offense. Sound familiar? For whatever reason, this particular group of players goes through the occasional team-wide slump, leading to some streaky offensive production. As of Monday, Cleveland ranks 13^th in BA (.242), 9^th in OBP (.325), 12^th in SLG (.362), and 10^th in runs scored (132) in the American League. This is the same core of players that finished 6^th (811) and 2^nd (870) in runs scored the last two seasons. The Tribe is currently averaging 4.25 runs per game, nearly an entire run off their pace last season.

Is this trend any different from last April though? I expected to see much better offensive numbers for April of 2007, but this was not the case. Below is a comparison of Cleveland’s last two Aprils:

Month	W	L	RS	RA	Run Diff.	WP	Team BA	Team OPS	Team ERA
April 2007	14	8	115	104	11	.636	.246	.752	4.21
March/April 2008	13	15	127	120	7	.464	.250	.708	4.06

The biggest difference between this April and last is the win percentage. Granted, the team OPS is down some this season, but the pitching staff is also giving up fewer runs. Otherwise, the overall offensive numbers are just as bad as they were this time last season. The deciding factor is how those runs were spread out. Last April, the Tribe scored three runs or less only five times in their first 22 games (22%). This April, they have scored three runs or less in 16 of their 31 games (51%) and are 3-13 in those games. In fact, 41% of Cleveland’s total runs scored have come from just five games.

So what’s causing the offense to be so erratic?

Outside of some serious slumps by Peralta, Blake, and Cabrera the first thing that caught my attention was the second spot in the lineup. At first glance the two-hole appears to be a crucial one, providing a bat to drive the leadoff man home and providing RBI opportunities for the cleanup hitters in the third and fourth spots. Tribe fans are familiar with the merry-go-round that Wedge likes to deploy for the second spot. So far this season, Wedge has used six different starters here with mixed results.

My theory is that if Wedge could find a reliable bat to plug into this spot it would go a long way to solidifying the offense and making it more consistent. This is easier said than done, as the team seems to be missing that extra bat right now to balance out the offense. Below is the collection of players Wedge has used behind Sizemore so far:

Player	GS	PA	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	OPS
A. Cabrera	10	46	0	5	4	3	7	.541
J. Carroll	7	34	0	3	6	4	2	.574
D. Dellucci*	8	31	3	8	3	1	4	1.044
J. Michaels^	3	17	0	0	1	1	5	.059
F. Gutierrez	2	8	0	0	0	0	0	.000
C. Blake	1	5	0	0	0	0	4	.600

*Platoons against RHP
^Platoons against LHP

I realize Michaels, Gutz, and Blake have not had a true opportunity in the two-hole, but I wanted to reinforce just how much it has varied between games. Carroll should not be batting that high in the lineup period, although I realize he was subbing for Cabrera on many occasions. AstroCab has played himself out of the top half of the lineup for the foreseeable future. It’s unfortunate that the Tribe’s second baseman has had a sophomore slump for two years in a row, but there really aren’t any alternatives this time. The bottom of the order is fine for Cabrera to take some of the immediate pressure off, although it’s far too early to even think about a demotion (Barfield’s .256 BA in Buffalo isn’t really promotion material anyway).

The most productive player in this position has been Dellucci, but he will definitely cool off at some point (he only has a .793 OPS in 83 PA overall) and is not an option to play every day. Francisco’s production will probably fall close to Dellucci’s, maybe a little better. It may be more beneficial to start the platoon squad behind Sizemore, rather than Gutz. Gutz’s struggles with righties would reduce his value at the top of the lineup and would lack the flexibility available with Francisco-Dellucci in bullpen match-ups.

The point is, there is no silver bullet for the Tribe’s lack of production in the two-hole. Each player or set of players has their share of weaknesses. I can understand, to an extent, why Wedge prefers these types of players between Sizemore and Victor. My guess is he is trying to infuse some extra speed at the top of the order before the clunkers in Victor, Hafner, and Garko come up to the plate. Top-to-bottom, this team is not built for speed. Still, wouldn’t having a guy who can get on base more often out weigh the benefit of having a speedier guy on less often? Not to confuse speedy with a base stealing threat; I was referring more to their pace around the bases.

Here’s the lineup I would propose:

Player	Bats	EQA	OBP
G. Sizemore	L	.316	.393
R. Garko	R	.277	.361
V. Martinez	S	.293	.380
D. Dellucci /	L	.294	.349
B. Francisco	R	.295	.333
T. Hafner	L	.243	.305
J. Peralta	R	.249	.279
F. Gutierrez	R	.249	.295
C. Blake	R	.237	.286
A. Cabrera	S	.204	.284

I agree with Wedge dropping Hafner down to sixth recently, so that isn’t much of a stretch. The main difference in my version of the lineup is moving Peralta down, Garko up, and dropping the platoon in the middle. With the exception of four at-bats in third, Garko has not had the opportunity to bat this high in the lineup before. One plus to moving Garko up is his OBP; his .351 OBP the last two years is consistently better than the rest of the lineup (excluding Grady, Vic, and Hafner). What Garko lacks in speed, he makes up for in plate discipline and some decent power. At the very least, Garko will reduce the number of outs generated by the two-hole and move Sizemore into scoring position more often. This opens the door for Martinez to rack up those RBI again.

It may sound like I’m putting a lot of faith in Sizemore to set the table, but he really is the crux of the offense. If Sizemore doesn’t score, Cleveland is going to struggle. Sizemore has had only four games this season where he has failed to reach base at least once. In 11 of those games where he reached base, he never crossed the plate (the team went 2-9 in those games). Therefore, Wedge needs to start bypassing what his gut tells him and start plugging his best hitters in at the top of the order. At the moment, Dellucci is one of the better hitters on the team, but I am very comfortable in saying Garko will significantly outperform him once he breaks out of his mini-slump.

To finish off the discussion on offense, I’ll examine Hafner’s slow start and the departure of Jason Michaels in my next post.

Series number two against New York opens up tomorrow, here’s hoping the bats wake up before then.

Offense Drops the Ball, but Victor Healthy Again

Jake Westbrook's perfect Spring finally ended in his first regular season start. Westbrook scattered 7 hits over 18 innings with 20 strikeouts and 5 walks during his stay in Winter Haven. So it wasn't that surprising to see his 0.00 Spring ERA translate into an excellent start against the Chi Sox on Thursday. Jake threw 7.1 strong innings, striking out 3 and walking one batter. The only real damage done by Chicago were solo homers in the 6th and 8th innings. Like Carmona the day before, Westbrook turned out a vintage performance by working efficiently (100 pitches) and inducing 12 ground-ball outs.

Unfortunately, the Tribe also picked up where they left off by leaving another quality Westbrook start out to dry. The offense couldn't solve John Danks, managing just two hits and a run in their first loss of the season. With Victor absent, a hit-less day by the first four batters in the lineup will do that (Pronk did have a BB and a R, but that was it).

Victor did make an appearance, pinch-hitting for Michaels in the 8th (he popped out). Obviously Victor's hammy is feeling much better if he was able to bat. Postgame, Wedge said the team was "very happy" with Martinez's recovery process. It may have looked bad when he was injured three days ago, but I think the cold weather was the primary culprit at the time. Just to be safe, it sounds like Victor will have at least one more day off when Shoppach catches for Byrd on Friday. I'm really not worried about Vic's injury anymore, as it was not a serious condition in the first place. Cleveland's physical trainers are among the best in baseball and certainly wouldn't put a player at risk this early in the season.

I'm working on a Westbrook projection article this weekend, so look for that later on.

Around the Central

It's too early to read much into it, but did anyone else notice Kansas City swept the Tigers this week? The flaunted Detroit offense was held to five runs over three games and shut out once. Brian Bannister and Zach Greinke combined for 14 innings of 1 run ball, while Joakim Soria picked up his first two saves. Again, waaaaay too early, but that doesn't make it any less enjoyable. It's kind of a running joke that I've predicted K.C. to be competitive the last two seasons, but I mean it this time. Watch out for K.C.'s core of youngsters this year (and yes, I genuinely like the Royals as a team. Them and the Nationals; can I pick a winning franchise or what?).

Meanwhile, Detroit showed off a potential Achilles heel in their bullpen this week. The buzz around the blogs is that Detroit's pen is pretty mediocre this season and Tribe fans are all too familiar with the dangers of a shaky bullpen. I've said it elsewhere and I'll say it again: between the bullpen, the ERA wrecking crew that is Dontrelle Willis, a lack of depth, and some serious regression on offense, Detroit is not as good as people think they are this season. We'll see if I'm still right come October.

Memphis Blues

The annual GM meetings have come and gone, but not before altering the balance of power in the AL Central. Detroit sold the farm (literally) to acquire two guaranteed years each of Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Renteria and Dontrelle Willis. This deal has been analyzed to death by now, but I guess I should throw my hat in the ring for you, the esteemed reader.

First of all, this is a pretty obvious "win now" approach by Detroit. In one offseason, Detroit shipped out Jair Jurrjens, Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin and a mess of other lesser prospects. I'm not sure what the Tiger's front office thought of Jurrjens, but I know Atlanta must have thought pretty highly of him to trade Renteria with two years left on his contract. Tribe fans may remember Jurrjens from his 2-1 win against Carmona in late August; a game where I came away very frustrated (read, impressed) with the rookie. Miller and Maybin were the undisputed crown jewels of Detroit's farm system for the immediate future. The Tigers sacrificed long-term organizational depth for short-term dividends.

Many fans have been quick to point out Detroit's aging roster as motivation to make the blockbuster trade now and I agree with this point. Miguel Cabrera (24) and Curtis Granderson (26) are the only starters on Detroit's roster below the age of 30. In that regard, I at least understand where Detroit is coming from, although I don't entirely agree with the move from a philosophical standpoint. Such a sweeping trade is better suited to an aging team like Detroit than a youthful contender like Cleveland, so maybe that's where my bias lies. Some of their key players, like Rodriguez and Sheffield, have already shown a decline in performance or an increasing risk of injury. They may stink in a few years, but the Tigers are going for the throat the next few seasons.

The interesting thing is that even if Detroit suddenly emerges as this Divisional monster and blocks Cleveland from the playoffs (/knocks on wood), they'll still have to contend with Boston (who may have Santana in a year) and New York (who may just purchase the Dominican Republic at some point), in addition to the Tribe. Not exactly a guaranteed Series appearance, is it ESPN? Meanwhile, Cleveland has a much younger team with their core players under contract longer than Cabrera, Renteria, or those other geezers will be (productive) in the Motor City. That's all too far down the road to predict, but it's something to think about in terms of Detroit's much ballyhooed "win now" approach.

Second, just how much will Cabrera and Renteria actually help Detroit next season? Let's take a look at the production from the positions they will be replacing (stats cited from Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus):

Player	Position	EQA	OPS+	WARP2
C. Guillen	SS (old)	.282	123	7.0
E. Renteria	SS (new)	.298	125	7.4
B. Inge	3B (old)	.238	80	6.0
M. Cabrera	3B (new)	.319	150	11.2
S. Casey	1B (old)	.254	96	2.4
C. Guillen	1B (new)	.282	123	7.0

With Guillen moving from SS to 1B in 2008, Detroit essentially traded for Renteria to upgrade 1B. In that sense, the Tigers made a significant upgrade, but only at one position. Guillen and Renteria were similar players in 2007. Renteria may be overrated going into next season though, since he has posted an OPS+ over 115 only one other time in his career (2003). I don't think it's realistic to expect him to do nearly as well as he did in '07, given the disparity between the NL West and AL Central.

Now before you start stressing out about how ridiculous Cabrera's numbers are, put them in context. Several key members of the Tigers' offense will not be as hot as they were last season. I would be shocked if Ordonez is able to duplicate his MVP caliber season next year. Sheffield has health and age issues, while Renteria's been discussed above. Even Placido Polanco had a career year in 2007, so fat chance of him repeating a performance he's done only once before in his career (notice the trend yet?). Granted, it's not a stretch for several of these guys to perform at a high level in 2008, but it's not as bad as it sounds for the rest of the Central (except for the White Sox because they are going to be horrible. Don't choke Ozzie!).

I think the problem is people are acting like Cabrera will be plugged into Detroit's lineup circa 2007, which just isn't true. Baseball rarely works in a linear fashion like that; player and team performance evolves annually. Granted, offensive production is not as volatile as bullpen pitching for example, but I still don't feel too far off the mark given the makeup of the Tiger's lineup. Cabrera will bring some heavy-duty offense to Detroit, but at the same time, many aspects of Detroit's lineup should regress back to their normal numbers.

Now, as far as Dontrelle Willis goes, Tribe fans have nothing to worry about. Show me that beautiful table:

Year	GS	IP	ERA	SLGA	HR/9	WHIP	K/BB
2005	34	236.3	2.63	.352	.42	1.13	3.09
2006	34	223.3	3.87	.397	.85	1.42	1.92
2007	35	205.3	5.17	.477	1.27	1.60	1.67

Willis has been in free fall the past two seasons. Not only has his strikeout to walk ratio crashed, but he's been getting hit hard. Poor control and an opposition slugging .477 against is a dangerous combination. Willis' decline wasn't particularly gradual either; a 22 win ace in 2005 and a 5.17 ERA two years later?

Part of the D-Train's decline can be attributed to his change in mechanics over the years; the reasons behind these changes are less clear. Carlos Gomez breaks down Willis' mechanics in a great article at THT here. Whatever the problem, Detroit is going to have to fix it if Willis is going to survive pitching in the American League. I'm guessing the Tigers are confident in their ability to resuscitate Willis' past performance as an ace because right now he doesn't appear to be much of an upgrade over the potential stud they gave up in Andrew Miller, or even the promising Jurrjens.

I may be in the minority on this, but I just don't see Detroit surpassing Cleveland in overall talent with this trade. They certainly pulled a lot closer, but I can't believe people are calling the division already, give me a break.

The worst thing Cleveland could have done was to make a knee-jerk reaction to Detroit's trades. Jason Bay? Really? I was against the idea of trading for Bay. I don't see him bouncing back from such a huge decline in performance and I think he is done as an elite hitter. If Bay's reported knee issues are the root of the problem, that's just another reason not to invest a boatload of talent in him via trade. It seems someone's not telling the whole truth here because 28 year old athletes don't usually crash and burn for an entire season like that. No one seems to know the reason why he appears to have suddenly hit a wall, which is suspicious in its own right. I'm not going to go there though, since it would be pure speculation. The fact is, Cleveland avoided a foolish reactionary trade and they are better off for it.

The best thing Cleveland could do to "respond" to Detroit is to extend Sabathia this offseason. As much as I would like to see left field upgraded, Sabathia is still the Tribe's priority at the negotiating table right now.

Next Year is Now

It’s a strange feeling watching your team in a playoff race when you already know the outcome. Sure there were some frustrating stretches, but did anyone really, truly doubt Cleveland was going to miss the playoffs this season? I’ve expressed doubts in this forum before, but I always knew in the back of my mind I was watching a great baseball team. Maybe it was just a fan’s blind faith.

As the Tribe closed out a sweep of the Tigers though, I can’t say I really had any sense of shock or surprise; it was more like a contained joy or excitement. Maybe I should have been more amped up for the Detroit series (which I didn’t miss a minute of), but it’s hard to be on the edge of your seat if you already know the ending. I really couldn’t be prouder of my (i.e. your) team right now knowing where they’ve come from and where they’re going; that in itself is extremely satisfying. So what went down to put Cleveland in this position?

August 1: Cleveland was in the midst of a horrible offensive slump and had an active 4-game losing streak. Detroit was struggling to tread water as well, clinging to a one game advantage in the Central.

September 1: Cleveland’s offense caught fire, the pitching staff gobbled up wins like Pacman, and a rookie infielder from Venezuela was showing everyone why he deserves to wear the number on his back. Detroit was still stuck in neutral as the Tribe built a 5.5 game lead and churned out 8 straight wins.

September 17: Detroit has managed to right the ship just in time for the series finale against Cleveland. The Tigers are bringing a renewed confidence and a 5-game winning streak to the Jake. Cleveland’s lead has held steady at 5.5 games, but faces one last obstacle before they can put the division in a stranglehold.

September 20: Cleveland completes its sweep of Detroit, standing atop a 7.5 game lead after knocking 6 games off their magic ticket to the postseason.

According to the Baseball Prospectus postseason odds, Cleveland has a 99.95680 percent chance of winning their division. Feel free to round up to the nearest tenth, Tribe fans.

Cleveland has compiled a .667 win percentage against teams within their division; the best intra-division record in the majors (Boston comes in second with a .579 WP). The Tribe also went 12-6 against Detroit, scoring more runs (99) against them than any of Detroit’s opponents this season.

I’m not sure what the Tigers were expecting against a team that had gone 30-16 since August 1, but getting tossed to the curb in a three game sweep was probably not what they had in mind. Detroit actually led in all three games, but failed to hold a lead in any of them. To be fair, it’s difficult to hold a lead when your pitchers can’t even keep the ball in the yard. The Tribe’s offense smashed 8 homeruns in three games against the best of the Detroit pitching staff (or what’s left of it, at least). Detroit’s ERA over the series was 5.67, including spectacular failures by Guitar Hero Joel Zumaya (1 IP, 3 ER, BS) and ace-by-default Justin Verlander (5.2 IP, 7 ER).

It’s difficult to single out any one Indian in the field, as each player made a key contribution at some point in the series; it was a true team effort. While the offense and defense were top notch, the bullpen was even better.

Given the obstacles Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook ran into in Games 1 and 2, the bullpen’s dominance played a pivotal role in deciding the series. Here are the combined splits for the Tribe bullpen in the Detroit series:

IP	H	BB	K	ER
9.2	4	1	12	0

Jensen Lewis was among the bullpen stalwarts, bailing out Westbrook in Game 2 with a brilliant 3 inning, 4 strikeout performance. Lewis was pitching in AA Akron at the start of the season and is now primed to make the playoff roster for an AL powerhouse. Raffy Betancourt continued to blow batters away and Joe Bo picked up two impressive, 1-2-3 saves. Borowski now leads the AL with 42 saves. Aaron Fultz also made an appearance in relief. Cleveland’s bullpen has been performing all along, to the tune of a 3.76 season ERA.

The Tribe didn’t just knock down the door to the Central Division; they blew it away with a bazooka.

I hadn’t even mentioned the captain of the pitching staff. If Sabathia doesn’t win the Cy Young this year, I will personally egg Jon Heyman’s house (I don’t actually know if he’s a voter, but I don’t really need a reason for this guy). I realize the Cy Young, like the MVP, has lost most of its credibility as a measure of performance, but I know how much these awards can mean to the players. Who wouldn’t be stoked to win the award for best pitcher in baseball? In that regard, I’d be really disappointed for Charles Carsten if he didn’t take the Cy this season; he’s earned it.

Chances are, if you’re reading this you already know the magnitude of Sabathia’s contributions to the Tribe, so I won’t spend much time explaining his leadership, maturity, toughness, and superb fashion sense. That’s a given. Just for fun though, let’s take a look at the season splits for the Crooked Cap:

IP	W-L	K	BB	ERA	WHIP	K/BB	CG
234	18-7	205	36	3.19	1.14	5.69	4

It may be a slim margin, but C.C. has been the best pitcher in the American League this season (and arguably half of last season, but I digress) according to the stats above. If wins are your thing, just imagine how many Sabathia would have with the kind of run support Josh Beckett has gotten this season. Boston has averaged 6.45 runs per game with Beckett on the mound, while Sabathia has gotten 5.10 RPG on the season. Sabathia also went through a stretch where he gave up 2 runs or less in 10 straight starts (July 24-Sept. 3), but picked up just 3 wins due to poor run support. You would hope a stat like that would weigh heavily on the minds of voters, who tend to over emphasize a candidate's win-loss record in the first place.

Sabathia also has an edge over Beckett in win shares, 22-18; implying C.C. has been more valuable to his team than Beckett (obviously a rough metric here, but it’s good for a brief look like this one). Unfortunately, I’m not much of a sabermetrician, but I’m fairly confident that a more in depth analysis of Sabathia’s value as an individual player and to his team would exceed Beckett’s in most cases.

Fun Fact: According to Stats, Inc., the only other left-hander since 1901 to post a better K/BB ratio than Sabathia's mark this season was Randy Johnson, who had a 6.59 ratio in 2004.

C.C. would probably be the first to tell you that the Cy Young doesn’t mean jack compared to a playoff run though. I’m a believer in the old adage, good pitching beats good hitting, and Cleveland’s frontline starters are no exception. Any team with a 1-2 punch as formidable as C.C. and Fausto has more than a reasonable shot at going deep into the playoffs.

I’m extremely superstitious when it comes to baseball (calling the division race just now is about as bold as it gets for me), but Tribe fans have every right to be obscenely excited about their team right now. The Brownies can wait, it’s Tribe Time now.

Random Notes

The STO crew recognized Tribe strength and conditioning coach Tim Maxey as the recipient of the Professional Baseball Strength and Conditioning Coaches Society’s Coach of the Year Award. Congrats Tim, it’s certainly well deserved.

There was an interesting article on the Hardball Times this week on soon-to-be retired ump Bruce Froemming. It featured some insightful anecdotes and a pretty amazing list of events Bruce has been linked to over his 37 year career. Check it out here.

Jobu Voodoo

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: we’re gonna need more pies.

Casey Blake capped off an electrifying comeback with a signature walk-off homer into the left field bleachers Monday night. Blake crushed a 1-2 pitch from Zach Miner to the one place Magglio Ordonez couldn’t rob him of another hit: out of the park. I think it’s safe to say that the 11 inning, three and a half hour epic sits near the top of the list for greatest games of 2007.

With the win, Cleveland lowered its Magic Number to 7 games and extended its Central Division lead to 5.5 games. They also snapped Detroit’s five game winning streak, won the Nobel Peace Prize, and discovered the reason hot dog buns come in packs of eight (but hot dogs only come in packs of 6). Hey, I told you it was a great game.

Blake was not alone in his heroics, as several members of the team really stepped up their game tonight.

Asdrubal Cabrera set it off by hustling a double off the mini-monster into a triple. AstroCab kicked in the afterburners and careened into third, just ahead of the ball. He had to do a crazy Matrix-style roll away from the tag to get his hand in safely on the slide. Cabrera would come home on a passed ball to draw first blood, collecting 2 H, 1 BB, and 2 R on the night.

Victor Martinez had a quiet night, but contributed a crucial RBI in the 8^th, plating Sizemore.

Yet, as awesome as Blake’s homerun was, it wasn’t even the best performance of the night. This was:

AB	R	H	RBI	BB	HR
2	2	2	3	3	2

That’s impressive.

Simply put, Jhonny Peralta unleashed hell on the unsuspecting Tigers. Cleveland would have had a tough time keeping up with Detroit tonight if it weren’t for Peralta’s career game. Jhonny launched his second homerun of the game off Detroit’s bullpen ace, Zumaya, in the 8^th inning. The tater came with a man on and tied the game at 5 all, forcing extra innings.

It’s difficult to describe the crowd’s reaction once the ball came off Peralta’s bat, but I think sonic boom would be appropriate. I don’t think STO’s microphones could even pick up on the decibel levels because the sound just all blended together into a raucous haze after that. Chants of Lets Go, Tribe could be heard throughout the rest of the game as the modest crowd of 28, 825 cheered their team to the finish line.

Hopefully fans don’t forget about Jhonny when they reminisce about the game.

The Tribe has owned Zumaya since he returned from the DL this season, with 6 H, 3 BB, and 6 ER in his 3 appearances against Cleveland. It’s a small sample size, but still fun to read.

I really have to give some dap to Paul Byrd tonight. He may have given up 4 earned runs, but he did go 7.1 innings and left the game with the Tribe in striking distance (down by 3). Paul had stated the importance of this start coming in and pitched with a visible intensity, calling out great plays by the defense and beating the crap out of his glove when things got rocky.

Most of his pitches seemed to have an extra bite to them tonight, resulting in a variety of outs (10-11 groundball-flyball outs) from off-balance batters. A few of the hits he gave up were just over or around the infielders gloves, but he did give up a few hard hits on flat, elevated pitches. He also had to work around errors by Peralta and Michaels that gave Detroit an extra out and a couple undeserved bases in the fourth.

Despite giving up 10 hits to Detroit, the Cobra needed just 101 pitches to go 7.1 innings. Byrd didn’t fool everybody, but he gave the Tribe a shot to win, which is all you can really ask from your fourth starter.

The offense may get all the glory in the box score, but the Tribe’s defense and pitching were outstanding from the fifth inning on. Byrd, Fultz, Borowski and Betancourt combined on 7 shutout innings after a dicey fourth to give the offense a shot at redemption. The quartet allowed just three Tigers to reach base over the last 7 innings of the game.

Byrd showed off his Cobra reflexes by snagging a potential RBI hit as soon as it came off the bat of Rodriguez. The infield combined on two double plays and picked off two baserunners. Shopvac showed off his cannon of an arm all night, converting a poor bunt into a double play ball by nailing the runner advancing to third.

The Tribe dropped an Iron Curtain behind Joe Bo tonight, making up for the defensive miscues that had nearly cost them the game earlier. Cabrera took an elbow to the face from a basestealer after receiving a perfect throw from Shoppach. Peralta followed with a heads-up play to nail the rookie Maybin trying to go 2nd to 3rd on a grounder.

Cleveland may have struggled a bit early on, but produced one of their finest games of the season before it was all over. Tonight was a great showcase of the Tribe’s skills and games like this impact more than just the loss column for an opposing team.

Fasten Your Seatbelts, Kids

Cleveland's Magic Number: 7

GO TRIBE!

4.5

Blogging and the first week of classes definitely don't get along very well; might have to hire a secretary or something. On to the Tribe...

Get happy Tribe fans.

Cleveland swept the Twinkies in style Wednesday by becoming the only team in the history of the universe to hand Johan Santana three losses in a season, going 3-1 in four meetings against the lefty. C.C. Sabathia was finally awarded his 15th win of the season after suffering from poor run support in his last four tries. Asdrubal Cabrera started off the Tribe's 4-run first inning with a 2-run uppercut blast over the mini-monster in left field. Victor, Gutz, and Lofton homered, doubled, and singled off Santana to score the other two runs. The Tribe's offense collected 10 hits on the night (only Hafner and Blake failed to reach base), although Santana was able to prevent any further scoring.

Cleveland dominated the Twins during the three game series, scoring 18 runs with a team ERA of 3.67. Minnesota never held a lead over the 27 innings played. Minnesota marks the Tribe's fourth straight series win, plus a two game split with Detroit.

On July 31, the team had a 60-46 record and trailed Detroit by a game, but Cleveland has quietly built a winning record in August. By going 15-11 this month (with two games remaining), the Tribe has pushed their second half record back over .500 at 23-20.

The Tribe's offense has been running on all cylinders since their 11-8 win over Detroit, averaging 5.87 runs per game. Add that to an already white hot pitching staff (3.31 ERA in August) and you're looking at a serious momentum shift in Cleveland.

I think the combination of getting demolished by the Yanks and having to go into Detroit a half game down really woke this team up. It's almost like lighting struck, but that Detroit series in the middle of the month seems to be the where the Tribe started to play with the fire and focus that had the rest of the league sweating the first two months of the season.

It might just be a coincidence, but AstroCab did make his major league debut a week before the team really took off again. Hmmm... More on #13 in my next post.

Meanwhile, Detroit has continued to free-fall and now sits 4.5 games back with only three head-to-head games remaining with Cleveland. The Tigers pitching continued to get battered this week as they lost their latest series to the dangerous Kansas City Royals. K.C. actually has a better second half record (20-22) than Detroit (19-27) and has posted a winning record the past two months.

Finally...

It's the end of an era in Cleveland. Once Kansas City finishes its overhaul of Kauffman Stadium in 2009, Cleveland will lose the title of Largest Freestanding Scoreboard in the United States. KC's trademark crest scoreboard will be remodeled as a video screen, beating out the Jake's 149 by 36 foot A/V monolith. Losing the Jake's claim to fame to a division rival just doesn't seem right. I think Dolan should take some of that free agent money Shapiro is selfishly hoarding away and blow it all on an even bigger scoreboard. That'll show KC who runs the Central. What else do Cleveland fans have to brag about? Wait, we're still in first place? Oh. Well, nevermind then.

Close Enough

Sorry to anyone who stopped by this week for an update; I kinda dropped the ball on the Detroit series and haven't had much time to write lately. I'll do better next week...

Speaking of Detroit, I was all ready lament my team's total lack of clutchiness following Game 1, but thought better of it. I had said earlier how important these five Detroit games could be to the team's confidence and was curious how they'd respond to getting beat down by the Tiger's pitching. Jair Jurrjens' appearance in Game 1 (2-1 loss) was only his second career start, both against Cleveland. I know the kid has exceptional stuff, but if you told me a AA pitcher would fool a lineup of experienced, professional hitters like that for the second time in a week, I would probably think you're crazy (unless you said the team was Cleveland, that I could believe).

After watching 11 Cleveland runners cross the plate in Game 2 (I applied to have Gutierrez canonized after that game), they went right back to their old habits and gave Westbrook absolutely no run support in the finale. Westbrook's opposition, Nate Robertson, came into the game with a 5.13 ERA, but managed to go 8.2 innings with 0 BB, 3 K, and 0 ER. They couldn't even muster any runners to strand against Robertson, which has been their specialty of late. Of course they tee off on Zumaya in the 10th, one of the most dominant bullpen guys in the league...yeah, that makes sense. It was an ugly way to win the series, but Detroit was just bad enough to let Cleveland steal that last game and take 2 of 3.

Support Group

I feel like I've talked the Slump to death at this point and I still haven't made much progress in figuring out why it's still happening. Then again, neither have the players, so I guess I shouldn't feel too bad.

The only people entitled to be more peeved at the offense than the fans is the pitching staff. I keep complaining about the lack of run support for our awesome starting pitching, but have yet to break down the stats. Let's see just how bad the starter's have gotten screwed lately:

Cleveland Starting Rotation: Last 8 Starts

Pitcher	Team W-L	IP	ERA	ER Against	Runs For	Avg. Run Support per Game	Avg. Opponent ERA
Sabathia	2-6	50.9	3.18	18	23	2.87	3.92
Carmona	4-4	60	1.80	12	17	2.12	4.59
Westbrook	4-4	55	2.78	17	26	3.25	4.14
Byrd	6-2	45.4	5.15	26	49	6.12	4.95

The table shows a curious trend as far as who is getting the run support. The better the pitcher, the less run support they receive in an average start. The list of pitchers from lowest ERA to highest (Carmona, Westbrook, Sabathia, Byrd) is a near match to the run support each pitcher receives.

One variable in this pattern is the quality of the pitching each starter must compete with. Looking at the opposing pitchers' ERA, Sabathia contends with the best starting pitchers and Byrd faces the worst; that sounds about right. The only stat that doesn't follow the expected pattern is Carmona facing the third worst pitching, but still receiving the worst run support of the four.

Obviously there are some flaws in the stats I chose here. Lumping all the pitchers into an average ERA disregards past success, defense, game location, etc., but I think it works for a crude comparison like the one above. Managers tend to set their rotations so that pitchers of comparable skill will match up with each other and that seems to stand up to the compiled stats, for the most part.

One could argue that pitching matchups share at least some of the blame for the lopsided run support, but I've seen Cleveland blow enough scoring opportunities against a variety of pitchers to know it's only a small part of a larger problem.

The fact that the starting rotation has marched out there night after night and maintained their focus in the face of those kinds of odds is amazing. You would think there'd be some tension in the clubhouse over pitchers not getting any support for their work; it's almost like a slap in the face. Judging by the feeling of dread I get whenever the other team goes up 2-0, the pitchers must really have to labor to keep their thoughts off of strangling Casey Blake after he strikes out looking.

On the other hand, Cleveland does run a pretty tight clubhouse and has never been a team to wear it's emotions on its sleeve. For the most part, the players seem to genuinely like each other, which comes in handy when there's so much frustration to be had on the field. Many fans tend to forget just how valuable (and difficult) maintaining a good clubhouse vibe over the grueling season can be to a team's long term success. There must be some pretty good communication and understanding between the players and coaches in the Tribe lockerroom to not crack under the pressure placed on the team this season. Wedge might only hint at it in his bland, cliché ridden interviews, but there is a method to his lack of madness. I've also seen enough displays of leadership from Martinez, Sabathia, and others to know these guys are too professional to start sniping at each other over individual performances.

Clash of the Mediocre Titans

We've got to get it going and we've got to get it going now.
-Jake Westbrook

The New York series wasn’t exactly the massacre that some fans (Cleveland or otherwise) may lead you to believe. Cause for concern? Yes. Painful? Absolutely. Yet, despite getting absolutely thrashed by the Evil Empire and humiliated at the hands of the local bandwagon fans (forgive them Jobu, they know not what they do) the Tribe is still, still tied for first place in the central division as I write this.

What the hell happened to the AL Central? It went from the toughest division in baseball (on paper) to the NL West circa 2005. Don’t get me wrong, I couldn’t be more grateful that Detroit has sucked as bad as us, but come on. Is anyone going to try and win this division? Should we just give the playoff berth to Philly out of pity and call it a season? Enough already.

The Baseball Gods have lined these two former juggernauts up for 5 meetings over a stretch of 10 days to decide the division. Yes, the division. The Tribe has hit rock bottom after getting kicked around by New York the upcoming Detroit series may make or break the team’s confidence. The Tribe has to snap out of this funk and break free from the back and forth garbage that constitutes a pennant race in this division.

Like I've said before, this team should not even think about winning the wild card. Unless New York goes into a highly unlikely tailspin, Cleveland has a very slim chance at taking the wild card berth. Taking the division crown at this point certainly seems like an easier proposition than battling Seattle, New York, Anaheim, and Boston for the wild card (yes, I was wrong about Seattle and New York earlier in the season, but I see them taking their respective division races down to the wire now).

New York was not a defining series for Cleveland’s regular season; important, but not definitive. Cleveland's season will live or die based on how they play against Detroit. Hopefully the team is able to endure the enormous pressure of these games and finally break through in the standings.

I’m hoping the familiarity with Detroit will make it easier on the players to get locked in and not look so listless. There’s definitely been a rivalry brewing between Cleveland and Detroit the last two years and I hope the leaders in the clubhouse exploit it for all it’s worth.

Pointing Fingers

After suffering though this slump for nearly a month and a half now, I'm having a hard time defending Wedgie or Shelton with much enthusiasm. Just how much of the blame do the manager and hitting coach deserve though? Well, unless you’re a player or an especially privileged member of the press, chances are you have no idea who’s to blame.

Wedge could’ve been berating players left and right during that pitiful New York series. Shelton might be living out of the film room and offering 24 hour, private batting cage sessions for his struggling players. You would hope something along those lines is going on in the Indian’s clubhouse, but I certainly wouldn’t expect (nor want) anybody who knows better to speak out about it. You really want to sink the ship? Have a player spout a vote of no confidence in his manager during a post-game interview.

It's been said many times before, but there really is a limited amount that a hitting coach can help his hitters. Players at this level know what they're doing and it's not like the hitting coach is going to be messing with anyone's mechanics right now. The hitting coach is basically there to remind players of what got them to the bigs and make sure they keep their approach consistent, maybe helping them tweak their approach for a particular situation or pitcher.

Now the secondary role of the hitting coach is to keep his hitters motivated and focused. I'm convinced the Tribe's offensive slump is a mental problem, but I have no evidence that the hitting coach has not been doing his job in that department.

The onus is on the players at this point, there's only so much Shelton can do for these guys. He can lecture the players all he wants, but if they don't execute in the end, none of that matters.

If Shelton is doing his job and doing everything he can in his power to try and get his players focused (there's no direct evidence whether he is or not) then he does not deserve to be fired. He can't baby sit these guys 24/7, at some point, the players have to take some accountability and do their job.

On the other end of the bench, one of Wedge’s primary duties is to keep the players focused, motivated, and ready to go each game. Like I said, nobody knows how fired up Wedge gets behind closed doors, but as far as I can tell, he has the respect of his players. Respect for a manager can be every bit as effective as aggression or intimidation as a source of motivation and focus. Wedge has maintained a similar managerial style for almost five years now, I think the guy knows how to run the team.

Wedge is far from perfect, but it’s amazing how much his ability to lead the team comes into question at times. If he really had that poor of a relationship with his players and staff, would Shapiro have extended him in the middle of this season? I doubt it.

Wedge and Shelton’s body of work suggests that they know what they’re doing. I don't think it's fair to hold them to a double standard where their body of work and history of working with these players is ignored once a bad slump hits. As a fan, there's really no definitive way of knowing how much blame should be placed on the players and how much should be placed on the coaches. For what it's worth, I'm currently leaning towards the players as the worst offenders right now.

Baseball is a cyclic game and this lineup is too talented to count it out just yet. I’m willing to give Wedge and his staff the benefit of the doubt here. Judging by Shapiro’s maneuvers this season (shipping out Lee and Rouse, bringing in Lofton), any dead weight won’t be tolerated this year. If Shelton is really the locus of this prolonged slump, I think he would have been replaced by now. Until then, I think the team should stick to its guns and go with the coaching staff that got the team this far in the first place.

Bottomline: the players need to wake up and start looking ahead at what they need to do, rather than focusing on the past. Cleveland and Detroit have reached a stalemate in the standings thus far and these five games may be the jolt the Tribe needs to start running on all cylinders again.

This One's For the Pessimists

I'm back from my trip to the Motherland, aka Lyndhurst, Ohio. I was fortunate enough to go to the Cleveland-Chicago game on July 17 and see Garko slay the Sox in extra innings. Two of the three games I've been to this year (D.C., Texas @ Cle.) have ended in walk off wins; kind of a strange stroke of luck (although we lost each series in the end, hmmm). A lot's gone down while I've been away, so on to the latest from the Tribe....

Cleveland has played 97 games in the 2007 season with 65 remaining. The second half of the season is where things tend to get interesting, as the true fight for a playoff berth really takes off. Under manager Eric Wedge, Cleveland has arguably played their best baseball in the second half. Going into the All Star break with 52 wins (just a game behind Detroit) is unprecedented for a Wedgie team. Below is a breakdown of the team under Wedge’s tenure, from 2004 to 2006:

Year	Split		W	L	RS	RA	PCT
2004	1st Half		42	45	474	482	.483
	2nd Half		38	37	384	375	.507
2005	1st Half		47	41	406	364	.534
	2nd Half		46	28	384	278	.622
2006	1st Half		40	47	488	443	.460
	2nd Half		38	37	382	339	.507
2007	1st Half		52	36	471	414	.591

I excluded the 2003 season under Wedge because the team was still in full rebuilding mode and would only skew the data for the teams who had a realistic chance of contending, playoffs or otherwise.

It may be a stretch to compare these teams directly, but the basic structure and core players have been very similar from 2004 to 2007, so I think it’s fair for just a rough comparison. Despite changes around the core, this particular team of players under Wedge has a distinct pattern of performing better in the second half of the season.

Every Wedgie team has finished with a better win percentage in the second half than in the first half. A rough calculation has Cleveland finishing around 95 wins if they continue to win games at their current pace. They are already playing 3 games above their projected record, according to THT, and are only 1.5 games behind Detroit as I write this. Combine that with the 3^rd best record in the majors and Tribe fans have reason to be optimistic. Here are the AL Central standings as of July 22:

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	vs Cent.
Detroit	58	38	.604		21-17
Cleveland	57	40	.588	1.5	21-12
Minnesota	51	47	.520	8	14-20
Chicago	43	54	.443	15.5	17-16
Kansas City	43	54	.443	15.5	13-21

Cleveland also boasts one of the best intra-division records in the AL at 21-12. I posted a theory earlier in the season that the rest of the Central would beat up on each other, allowing the Tribe to move ahead of the pack. Looking at the standings, the theory seems to be holding up, although Detroit has recently closed the gap due to the Tribe’s poor play in the last Detroit and Chicago series’. A key difference so far has been how Cleveland (9-9) and Detroit (14-4) performed in interleague games this year.

Some fans may point out Detroit is only positioned to become stronger in the second half and Cleveland has yet to distance themselves from their division rival. This is true; Detroit has already gotten Kenny Rogers back and Zumaya and Rodney should be back later in the season to bolster their bullpen.

Cleveland has gotten some extra pitching help since the All Star break, though.

Westbrook is healthy again and while he hasn’t been particularly dominant, he has performed close to his career numbers. Jake has gone at least 6 innings in his five post DL starts, with an era of 4.50 and no wins. Remove his start against Detroit (career 6.59 era in 15 starts) where he gave up 5 runs over 7 IP and Jake’s era drops to 3.81 in his last five games. He’s really been a victim of poor run support in some of his better starts, but should start collecting wins as the law of averages takes over (the offense can’t go cold for every start).

Perez has pitched 29 innings this season and posted a 1.86 era, 34 Ks, and a .86 whip. The front office is currently pursuing another reliever to share the load with bullpen ace Betancourt, but Perez may be the answer they were looking for (he started the season in AAA). Perez was used primarily as a long reliever until he became a late inning regular in late June. He is currently the Tribe’s go-to pitcher for close games and is arguably the best pitcher in the bullpen right now.

Factor in a rebounding Hafner and the possible production from Gutierrez and Francisco in the outfield and the offense should be even better in the second half.

This is obviously a very simplistic evaluation of the team's performance, but it's encouraging nontheless.

In Other News

I'll be the first to admit that I've been drinking the Kansas City Kool Aid this year, proclaiming them contenders in 2 years, but they have been a team to be recokoned with lately. After taking two of three from Boston, K.C. has moved into a 3rd place tie with Chicago in the AL Central with a 43-54 record. While I hadn't printed it on this site, I had a strong feeling that the Royals would challenge Chicago for 3rd place this year. Given how much I despise Chicago, it would be great to see Buddy Bell and the Royals shove them into the basement.