Projecting an Injured Offense

Cleveland baseball is once again in the news as trade rumors swirl around C.C. Sabathia. The pace has picked up since Cleveland is struggling to hold its head above water. The Tribe has fallen to last place in the AL Central, 8.5 games behind Chicago. I’ll be the first to admit that I sold Chicago well short earlier in the season, but it looks like they’ll be hanging around until the end.

Chicago’s pitching staff has been carrying the team with a 3.41 team ERA, second best in the AL. The biggest difference between the Sox and the Tribe is that Chicago boasts a power laden lineup of relatively healthy veterans. Manager Ozzie Guillen snapped his offense out of an early funk and it’s paid off in the win column. Chicago ranks first in homeruns (103) and run differential (1.26), and fourth in runs scored (385) in the AL.

To make matters worse, Detroit has finally started to show signs of life offensively. Detroit’s been averaging 4.95 runs per game in June amassing a 15-8 record. Minnesota has proven to be a wild card in the Central, winning 10 in a row and trailing Chicago by just a half game. The Twins have quietly scored the third most runs in the AL (388), despite a reputation for anemic offense in recent years.

Minnesota is a complete surprise to me, but they are only playing three games over their Pythagorean record right now, so they could end up being a major spoiler. Cleveland is four games under their Pythag, which translates to a 40-39 record. The only other team playing under their Pythag is Chicago and they’re in first place.

With the Indians now chasing three contenders for the Division Crown, the rumor mill has only sped up. At what point can you stick a fork in Cleveland? It’s been well publicized that the Central is more balanced this year and even an 8 game lead is vulnerable with 82 games remaining (just ask the Twins). On the other hand, Cleveland has been severely depleted by injuries.

By trading Sabathia, the front office would be conceding the season and preparing for 2009. There have already been some excellent discussions of Sabathia’s value in a possible trade at LGT and The Diatribe, so I won’t be revisiting that topic. Instead, I’d like to get a better idea of what this lineup is capable of without Martinez and Hafner for an extended period.

Can this team realistically contend with the players they have now or is this as good as it gets offensively?

Player	Procedure	Rehab Time	Possible Return Dates
V. Martinez	Removal of bone chips in right (throwing) elbow	6 - 8 weeks	July 26 - August 9
T. Hafner	Muscle strengthening program for rotator cuff and right shoulder	4 - 6 weeks (rough estimate)	July 17 - July 31 (rough estimate)
J. Barfield	Surgery on left, middle finger ligament	6 - 8 weeks	July 29 - August 12

Victor Martinez is by far the biggest loss to the lineup and will probably be the last to return. The wait should be worth it though as Martinez will be playing pain free for the first time all season. Martinez described his limitations in a recent interview with Castrovince:

When I really wanted to put something on a swing, I wasn't able. Every time I tried to get extension, I felt a sharp pain in my elbow. Man, it was tough. It's tough to play like that.

The amazing part is that despite being hampered by severe pain and limited mobility in his throwing elbow, Martinez still threw out 39% of all base stealers and hit .278. Martinez was also nagged by a sore hamstring, which will have ample time to heal. In other words, all those concerns about Victor losing his power (0 HR this year) and suffering from wear behind the plate can be thrown out the window. I think Martinez will explode out of the gate when he finally gets back.

The tricky part is making up the difference while the teams most consistent hitter recovers from surgery. According to the Cleveland Clinic’s database:

Recovery varies from one week to several months, depending on the extent of the surgery. Most patients can return to heavy work and sports within three to six weeks of surgery if the procedure is minor. However, three to six months is often required for complete recovery.

A best case scenario has Victor starting as DH or at first base if Hafner isn’t back yet. It’s unlikely that Wedge would use Victor behind the plate until his elbow is close to 100%. Otherwise, base runners will be constantly testing his throwing arm.

I’d like to provide a similar take on Hafner, but it’s difficult to say at what point he was truly healthy this season, if at all. How far back has his shoulder bothered him to the point of being a handicap on his swing? The outlook did not sound optimistic and Hafner is currently behind in his strength training program. The latest report says Hafner “has improved the strength in his injured right shoulder 15 percent since his last assessment two weeks ago, but it still remains just 45-50 percent as strong as his left shoulder."

Heading into 2008, Cleveland’s offense was really built around Sizemore, Martinez, and Hafner. I’m guessing the Front Office is betting (for or against, I don’t know) on Hafner making a full recovery and becoming a force on offense again. A reasonable expectation could be Hafner circa-2007 (.837 OPS, 24 HR) with a gradual return to form somewhere between his 2006 (1.097 OPS, 42 HR) and 2007 numbers. Again, it will be tough to gauge just how much Hafner’s weakened shoulder contributed to his steep decline, so it’s really anybody’s guess how he will respond in-game until he’s healthy again.

With a four year contract extension about to kick in and a healthy shoulder, Hafner will be out of excuses upon his return. It’s about time Pronk showed his face again and he may have to if the offense in its current state will ever truly get back on track.

Barfield’s turn of bad luck took him out of the lineup before he could even make an impression, so there’s not much to say on him. Barfield posted a .297 OBP and .382 SLG over 259 AB in AAA Buffalo this year, so it’s a safe bet he wouldn’t have outperformed Jamey Carroll. Cleveland never planned on having much offense come out of second base anyway, so the choice between Barfield and Carroll may have ended up as a semi-platoon. It would have been nice to test Barfield’s progress, but it would have been a bit of a luxury considering how desperate the team is for offense.

Sources and Assumptions

I made a few key assumptions in compiling and analyzing the stats below. First, I created a baseline using the 2008 CHONE projections for each player (courtesy of Sean Smith’s blog). I debated whether the more useful data here would be career stats or projected stats for 2008. I decided that career numbers for veteran players (Hafner, Dellucci) would be skewed by far removed seasons (like a career year or rookie season) as much as a projection system might make some poor assumptions for a rookie (like Francisco).

In this case, I’ll be comparing the 2008 projections with the 2008 actual stats. Then, I’ll try a few combinations of under-performing or missing players to see how it effects the overall offensive production. It’s worth noting that I was limited to traditional stats for the comparison due to the inclusion of the projections. I only included players who have seen a substantial amount of action and are still available, so that eliminates Jason Michaels (58 AB) and Barfield (injured, 6 AB). Also, I chose CHONE because I’m notoriously cheap and don’t have access to this year’s PECOTA projections, in case you were wondering.

It was difficult to compile a true team OPS, since I don’t have a big database of the entire team (complete with hits, walks, and all the stuff that goes into calculating OBP and SLG) that I can add or subtract players from (like pitchers). Since the main thing I wanted was the concrete difference between an actual and optimized lineup, I took the averages of each players OPS and measured the differences between each lineup. This provides a rougher analysis, but gets the job done.

All stats were taken from FanGraphs and are current as of June 28.

The Stats

2008 CHONE Projections

Player	AB	HR	HR/AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
T. Hafner	499	29	0.06	.279	.402	.515	.917
G. Sizemore	602	23	0.04	.287	.387	.488	.876
V. Martinez	539	20	0.04	.286	.370	.462	.832
R. Garko	505	19	0.04	.267	.347	.440	.787
J. Peralta	544	19	0.03	.270	.347	.438	.785
C. Blake	514	19	0.04	.255	.330	.428	.758
D. Dellucci	274	10	0.04	.237	.332	.409	.741
B. Francisco	467	13	0.03	.261	.318	.413	.731
A. Marte	464	16	0.03	.246	.311	.414	.725
F. Gutierrez	441	12	0.03	.259	.317	.404	.721
S. Choo	474	9	0.02	.259	.335	.382	.717
A. Cabrera	527	7	0.01	.258	.322	.370	.692
K. Shoppach	253	10	0.04	.225	.295	.395	.690
J. Carroll	373	3	0.01	.241	.326	.314	.640
Average:			0.03	.259	.337	.419	.756

Actual 2008 Season Stats as of June 28

Player	AB	HR	HR/AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
G. Sizemore	301	17	0.06	.262	.368	.505	.873
S. Choo	59	2	0.03	.271	.392	.475	.867
B. Francisco	179	5	0.03	.291	.347	.458	.805
C. Blake	246	7	0.03	.268	.339	.431	.770
K. Shoppach	122	5	0.04	.246	.319	.443	.762
J. Carroll	157	0	0.00	.293	.378	.369	.747
J. Peralta	279	11	0.04	.244	.293	.427	.720
D. Dellucci	183	7	0.04	.219	.304	.388	.692
R. Garko	249	6	0.02	.249	.333	.357	.690
T. Hafner	157	4	0.03	.217	.326	.350	.676
V. Martinez	198	0	0.00	.278	.332	.333	.665
F. Gutierrez	189	3	0.02	.233	.282	.344	.626
A. Cabrera	158	1	0.01	.184	.282	.247	.529
A. Marte	51	0	0.00	.137	.185	.157	.342
Average:			0.02	.242	.319	.377	.696

It's no surprise that Sizemore is leading the way on offense, but to see Choo and Francisco sporting the second and third best OPS on the team (by a sizable margin) was unexpected. Choo has responded well to the Majors since coming back from Tommy John surgery. Choo had a .846 OPS in 146 AB in 2006, so his current production is certainly within his means. Choo is a much needed addition to right field, as Gutierrez has been a disappointment so far (.430 OPS in June).

Another unexpected savior of the offense has been Ben Francisco. CHONE projected him with a modest rookie season with 13 HR, a .318 OBP, and a .413 SLG, but Ben is having a breakout season. While he's not blowing the doors off, Ben has made a smooth transition from his MVP season in Buffalo with 5 HR and a .291, .347, .458 line.

The production from Choo, Francisco, and Carroll (.856 OPS) this month is largely negated by ongoing slumps from guys like Peralta (.637 OPS) and Garko (.660 OPS), who were supposed to be primary contributors this season.

Difference Between Actual and CHONE Averages

Player	HR/AB	BA	OPS
T. Hafner	-0.03	-0.062	-0.241
G. Sizemore	0.02	-0.025	-0.003
V. Martinez	-0.04	-0.008	-0.167
R. Garko	-0.01	-0.018	-0.097
J. Peralta	0.00	-0.026	-0.065
C. Blake	-0.01	0.013	0.012
D. Dellucci	0.00	-0.018	-0.049
B. Francisco	0.00	0.03	0.074
A. Marte	-0.03	-0.109	-0.383
F. Gutierrez	-0.01	-0.026	-0.095
S. Choo	0.01	0.012	0.150
A. Cabrera	-0.01	-0.074	-0.163
K. Shoppach	0.00	0.021	0.072
J. Carroll	-0.01	0.052	0.107
Total Difference:	-0.11	-0.238	-0.848

This table just highlights the number of players who are currently underachieving, according to their anticipated production for 2008.

The main question is, what can we realistically expect from this group of players for the long haul? There's a very real possibility that Hafner and/or Martinez will not return in time to make an impact on the season. Even if they do, they may not be fully effective at the plate for some time.

Below are a few scenarios based on the actual and projected stats:

Optimized Lineup Using Available Players

Player	AB	HR	HR/AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
G. Sizemore	602	23	0.04	.287	.387	.488	.876
S. Choo*	59	2	0.03	.271	.392	.475	.867
B. Francisco*	179	5	0.03	.291	.347	.458	.805
R. Garko	505	19	0.04	.267	.347	.440	.787
J. Peralta	544	19	0.03	.270	.347	.438	.785
C. Blake*	246	7	0.03	.268	.339	.431	.770
K. Shoppach*	122	5	0.04	.246	.319	.443	.762
J. Carroll*	157	0	0.00	.293	.378	.369	.747
D. Dellucci	274	10	0.04	.237	.332	.409	.741
A. Marte	464	16	0.03	.246	.311	.414	.725
F. Gutierrez	441	12	0.03	.259	.317	.404	.721
Average:			0.03	.266	.346	.433	.779

This table lists the current stats of players who are significantly outperforming their CHONE projections, as indicated by an asterisk. If you combine these overachievers with the expected (CHONE) numbers for the rest of the current roster (minus Martinez and Hafner) you end up with a pretty potent offense. This "optimized" lineup has a difference of .083 OPS points compared to the actual lineup listed at the top. Again, this is a fairly unrealistic lineup as long-slumping players would have to break out in the second half in addition to some hot hitting from Francisco and company.

Actual Stats Plus Hafner and Martinez CHONE Projections

Player	AB	HR	HR/AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
T. Hafner*	499	29	0.06	.279	.402	.515	.917
G. Sizemore	301	17	0.06	.262	.368	.505	.873
S. Choo	59	2	0.03	.271	.392	.475	.867
V. Martinez*	539	20	0.04	.286	.370	.462	.832
B. Francisco	179	5	0.03	.291	.347	.458	.805
C. Blake	246	7	0.03	.268	.339	.431	.770
K. Shoppach	122	5	0.04	.246	.319	.443	.762
J. Carroll	157	0	0.00	.293	.378	.369	.747
J. Peralta	279	11	0.04	.244	.293	.427	.720
D. Dellucci	183	7	0.04	.219	.304	.388	.692
R. Garko	249	6	0.02	.249	.333	.357	.690
T. Hafner	157	4	0.03	.217	.326	.350	.676
V. Martinez	198	0	0.00	.278	.332	.333	.665
F. Gutierrez	189	3	0.02	.233	.282	.344	.626
A. Marte	51	0	0.00	.137	.185	.157	.342
Average:			0.03	.242	.331	.400	.731

The second scenario takes the actual stats, but inserts the 2008 CHONE projections for Martinez and Hafner. There are two obvious issues here. First, I seriously doubt Hafner posts a .917 OPS in the second half. Martinez's numbers are more realistic and I'm confident he will hit the ground running when healthy. The second issue is just how bad the rest of the lineup is in comparison. Even with some overly optimistic numbers from the two DL players, the average OPS only increases by .035 points.

Keeping in mind that this .731 OPS is very rough due to the limitations discussed earlier, let's compare it to the other AL teams:

Team	R / G	OPS	BA / RISP
Texas	5.51	.803	.274
Boston	5.01	.803	.264
Detroit	4.83	.768	.270
Minnesota	4.83	.722	.314
Chicago	4.78	.771	.286
New York	4.69	.773	.252
Tampa	4.66	.753	.267
Oakland	4.51	.706	.281
Cleveland	4.44	.708	.268
Baltimore	4.42	.744	.270
Anaheim	4.29	.708	.279
Toronto	4.14	.725	.243

While a .731 OPS would be a significant upgrade over the current .708 OPS for Cleveland, it really doesn't guarantee much in terms of overall run production. Cleveland would move up in the offensive rankings, but would still fail to crack the top six and would likely struggle to win games without some insane pitching (like Anaheim).

Since we're dealing with an average, removing the biggest outlier (Marte's .342 OPS) should tighten up the team OPS a bit. Without Marte's stats, the average OPS shoots up to .760. Even a .760 OPS is middle of the pack for the teams listed above, but would be a massive improvement on the current .708. For comparison, the team OPS in 2007 was .771.

One trend I wasn't expecting was the loose correlation between team OPS and runs scored. I added BA/RISP to try and account for this. Cleveland has one of the worst team OPS', but have been fairly efficient in driving in the few baserunners they have.

My conclusion is that even with a healthy and productive Martinez and Hafner, the Tribe's offense would still be in trouble. A lot of things will have to fall into place for this team to even hang with the top contenders. An ineffective bullpen (4.78 season ERA) and the loss of Carmona and Westbrook make relying on the pitching staff to win games a risky proposition.

Reluctant Optimism

It’s difficult to tell if this team has hit rock bottom yet. A seven game losing streak seems like a pretty good benchmark for how bad things will get this season, but the Tribe continues to crash and burn every chance they get. The lack of offense continues to negate an excellent pitching staff and above average defense and it looks like Eric Wedge is starting to feel the pressure. Wedge has reverted to shuffling the lineup every night in an effort to bust the team’s slump. When nearly everyone on the roster has been dragging at the plate, I’m not sure swapping one .220 batting average for another will make much difference, but you can’t blame a guy for trying.

The aspect of Wedge’s job that I’m most curious about is how he has been working with individual players to stay motivated and work through the losing streak. This aspect of managing isn’t revealed in the box score, but is still a big part of a manager’s job performance. I suppose I’m making a borderline argument for Wedge’s “intangibles” in dealing with the problem at-hand, but there’s a reason he has had success in developing and coaching this group of players over the years. Fans are quick to forget this team won 96 games last year; in-game decisions aside, how much are you willing to blame Wedge for the current trends?

Wedge and his core players have been through tough times before and I have yet to hear anything negative about the clubhouse atmosphere or Wedge’s relationship with the team. Sure 2006 was disappointing, but if you blame the coaching staff for that failure you have to also give them credit for the ALCS appearance the following year. The situation Cleveland is in right now reminds me most of the 2005 season where the team caught fire in the second half and nearly stole the division title from Chicago. One could argue that the 2005 team was playing without pressure and ended up folding in the final week when it really mattered anyway.

While the 2008 squad is under pressure to win, they also have a substantial amount of experience in handling a pennant race compared to 2005. In addition to being more experienced, the pitching staff is at least as good as it was back then (Millwood won the ERA title and Wickman had 45 saves), while half the starting lineup consisted of such luminaries as Broussard, Belliard, Boone, and Crisp. Granted, Hafner was a beast back then, but considering we had a mediocre Nixon, Barfield, and a mediocre Hafner last year, you get the idea. Neither of the recent offenses has really been stacked with All-Stars, but have produced enough to hit 90+ wins.

Who’s to say this team won’t storm out of the gates after the All-Star Break and catch Chicago (if Chicago somehow stays in first place). I think if the Tribe can manage to tread water while they work through their slump and get a few games over .500 by July, they will still be in a strong position to win the division. My point in comparing Cleveland’s 2005 season to 2008 is to try and put the team’s struggles in perspective; this is nothing new. At the break in 2005, Cleveland sat 11 games back with a 47-41 record. They went 46-28 the rest of the season and finished with 93 wins.

This season, Chicago and to a greater extent Detroit, have both shown serious flaws and would be hard-pressed to withstand a strong run by Cleveland in the second-half. Team’s come back from the dead all the time and the Tribe still has 41 games before they even reach the All-Star Break. The 121 games played after July 15 make up nearly 75% of the season. Keep that number in mind next time you think Cleveland is toast already. Any one who thinks the offense will be this miserable for much longer is jumping the gun, in my opinion. I’ll go into more detail on a future post, but it appears highly unlikely that the core players have all been vastly over performing up to this point in their careers. The offense will snap out of it eventually because there is just no way the majority of the players will post a career-worst year, that’s nuts.

They may be just 2-4 in their last six games, but the offense has shown signs of progress lately. Against a weak Texas staff and Chicago's strong pitching, Cleveland averaged 5.16 runs per game. Better yet, they reached base about 13.5 times per game during that stretch. The trick is getting more of those runners to cross the plate, but the fact they're reaching base at all is encouraging. Hang in there Tribe fans, I think the team will move on from this mess soon enough.

Hafner Hurting

Apparently, Travis Hafner has been experiencing pain in his right shoulder since Spring Training. I knew Hafner had to sit out a game early in April because of the injury, but it sounds like his shoulder has been bothering him all season. Hafner received his second cortisone shot of the season to relieve the inflammation in his shoulder joint. Head Trainer Lonnie Soloff diagnosed the issue as an “irritated joint,” but said there was no structural damage to the shoulder.

This may explain why Hafner has had trouble keeping his approach at the plate consistent this year. Hafner bats left-handed, so the right shoulder would be the one closest to the pitcher. As someone with no medical training, the first impression I get is that the injury may be causing Hafner to compensate for the limited motion or pain in other aspects of his swing. Hafner said he has been trying to correct flaws in his swing lately, but I have no idea how many of those “flaws” have been injury related. Obviously, Hafner refused to acknowledge the shoulder as the reason for his poor performance, but I think this may be one piece of the puzzle behind the disappearance of Pronk. Any injury serious enough to warrant a trip to the disabled list must be hindering a player’s performance somehow. Hafner will likely see regular off-days until his shoulder is back to 100%.

Marte Sighting

In an effort to find a lineup with some chemistry, Wedge has finally acknowledged the existence of Andy Marte. It took a catastrophic failure on offense, but it looks like Marte will finally see some playing time as a starter. Despite hitting just .216 with a .642 OPS, third baseman Casey Blake has held an iron grip on the starting job to this point. A recent Castrovince article cites the team-wide slump and Hafner’s injury as the reasons for Marte’s opportunity. I guess having a young, high-ceiling third baseman on the bench and an aging starter batting .216 isn’t reason enough, but I don’t call the shots. Marte has appeared in just 13 games this season, compared to Blake’s 46 appearances. It’s kind of sad, but Marte has received so little playing time since Opening Day that Michael Aubrey (called up on May 17) already has 8 appearances to Marte’s 13.

The ideal scenario would see Marte getting regular playing time for the next several weeks, as Blake is not getting any better here. Heck, with the way the entire lineup is going right now, I’d even be happy with Marte starting the majority of games next month. It certainly can’t hurt at this point. At best, Andy gets into a groove and provides an offensive spark akin to Ben Francisco. At worst, Cleveland displaces a crappy bat from the lineup a few times a week with another, slightly better bat who may develop into a superior, full-time starter by the end of the season. Any experimentation with the lineups (I’d say four different DHs in as many games counts as an “experiment”) should definitely include Marte for the foreseeable future.

Pitching Shuffle

Cleveland made several changes to their pitching staff in response to players coming off the disabled list. Joe Borowski returned from the DL on 5/23, causing relief pitcher Craig Breslow to be designated for assignment. Breslow had been the pen’s lefty specialist, posting a 3.24 ERA and 1.4 K/BB rate over 8.3 IP. I was surprised that Breslow was cut outright, but if the team feels it has a better option there’s no point fussing over a waiver wire pickup.

The next day saw Jensen Lewis headed to Buffalo, Carmona to the DL, and Scott Elarton and Ed Mujica called to Cleveland. The team was concerned with a sudden drop in Lewis’ velocity and sent him down to rest up and work out any tweaks in his delivery. Lewis had thrown the most innings of any reliever at 27.7, so fatigue or prevention thereof may have factored into the decision. Elarton posted a 2.45 ERA and 2.5 K/BB rate in 25.2 IP as a reliever in Buffalo this season. Elarton may fill in for Breslow’s duties as a spot and long reliever. I don’t expect Mujica to appear in many high-leverage situations, as his numbers in Buffalo (4.15 ERA, 26 IP) and past experience don’t inspire much confidence. Shapiro must have seen some improvement in Mujica to call him up though, so he’s kind of a wait-and-see player right now.

Finally, Jake Westbrook’s return to the rotation saw Jorge Julio DFA’d. With the offense needing all the help it can get, it appears Michael Aubrey’s spot is safe for now (personally, I think he could be trade bait later on). Julio was pretty much a non-factor this season, except when he was busy blowing leads. In his short stint with the Tribe he gave up 11 ER over 17.7 IP, so adiós Jorge.

Stuck in Neutral

Hey, did I miss anything?

I’ve been missing from the blog-o-sphere lately, as I had to meet some major deadlines so I could graduate on time. I’ve been fairly perplexed by the Tribe’s 14-17 start, although it’s nice to see Detroit (14-18) has been keeping us company in the basement. The first sign that it’s too early to panic is that Minnesota is currently in first place. Yeah…good luck with that. Today, I’ll sort through the Tribe’s first month and try to figure out why the offense has fallen flat so far. First,

What’s Up With Detroit?

The Tiger’s were struggling early on, but the offense seems to have gathered itself of late. Detroit’s offense has gone on a tear in its last ten games, averaging 6 runs per game compared to 4.38 in their first 21 contests. Considering their offseason additions and the fact Detroit averaged 5.47 runs per game in 2007, it’s not unreasonable to think the Tigers could sustain their current offensive production, albeit unlikely. I’ve said before that several of Detroit’s players had career years in 2007 and are due for some regression (Ordonez and Polanco come to mind), which would dull the impact Cabrera and Renteria might make on the lineup. Not to discount the addition of these two players, but I just don’t buy into the hype that Detroit garnered in the offseason. Their offense will still be very good, but I’d be surprised if they finish the season with more runs scored than they had last year.

The real reason Detroit has failed to capitalize on Cleveland’s slow start is their pitching. The Tiger’s starters have posted a pedestrian 5.39 ERA in 31 games, while their relief corps has just a 4.32 ERA. For a team with such a powerful offense, having a run differential of -15 points to some serious pitching issues. Verlander has gotten off to an improbably rough start (6.28 ERA, 1.44 WHIP), but like Sabathia nobody sees this as a long term trend. Fatigue shouldn’t be an issue considering the 25 year old Verlander averaged 193.8 innings the last two seasons with no ill effects. It seems the Tiger’s ace is just in a rough stretch right now. As bad as Detroit’s pitching has been, there’s no way it will continue to be this bad. Six starts is still too soon to panic and Robertson and Rogers have been so bad they are bound to bounce back. Willis had only 5 innings logged before hyper-extending his knee and has had a more than adequate replacement in Armando Galarraga.

It’s unclear just how far Robertson and Rogers may fall before recovering and Willis has yet to prove himself in the AL. Detroit’s pitching will recover, but they won’t be particularly scary this season. A slew of health issues in the bullpen only compounds the struggles of the starters. Unfortunately for the Tribe, the Tiger’s pitching can get away with being mediocre as the team’s offense should pick up the slack more often than not.

I think it’s important to remember that Detroit has played just as poorly as Cleveland so far, but is still an extremely dangerous team. Detroit’s struggles can be good or bad, depending on your point of view. Cleveland certainly caught a break with Detroit’s pitching slump, as they could easily be down by five or eight games right now. Then again, so could Detroit. It’s almost as if Detroit and Cleveland are trying to recreate their stalemate from late last season where neither team could win a game, even with the division on the line. It’s far too early to make a prediction, but the team that shifts out of neutral first could create a buffer that ends up deciding the division later on.

On the Offense

The biggest factor behind Cleveland’s current rut is its inconsistent offense. Sound familiar? For whatever reason, this particular group of players goes through the occasional team-wide slump, leading to some streaky offensive production. As of Monday, Cleveland ranks 13^th in BA (.242), 9^th in OBP (.325), 12^th in SLG (.362), and 10^th in runs scored (132) in the American League. This is the same core of players that finished 6^th (811) and 2^nd (870) in runs scored the last two seasons. The Tribe is currently averaging 4.25 runs per game, nearly an entire run off their pace last season.

Is this trend any different from last April though? I expected to see much better offensive numbers for April of 2007, but this was not the case. Below is a comparison of Cleveland’s last two Aprils:

Month	W	L	RS	RA	Run Diff.	WP	Team BA	Team OPS	Team ERA
April 2007	14	8	115	104	11	.636	.246	.752	4.21
March/April 2008	13	15	127	120	7	.464	.250	.708	4.06

The biggest difference between this April and last is the win percentage. Granted, the team OPS is down some this season, but the pitching staff is also giving up fewer runs. Otherwise, the overall offensive numbers are just as bad as they were this time last season. The deciding factor is how those runs were spread out. Last April, the Tribe scored three runs or less only five times in their first 22 games (22%). This April, they have scored three runs or less in 16 of their 31 games (51%) and are 3-13 in those games. In fact, 41% of Cleveland’s total runs scored have come from just five games.

So what’s causing the offense to be so erratic?

Outside of some serious slumps by Peralta, Blake, and Cabrera the first thing that caught my attention was the second spot in the lineup. At first glance the two-hole appears to be a crucial one, providing a bat to drive the leadoff man home and providing RBI opportunities for the cleanup hitters in the third and fourth spots. Tribe fans are familiar with the merry-go-round that Wedge likes to deploy for the second spot. So far this season, Wedge has used six different starters here with mixed results.

My theory is that if Wedge could find a reliable bat to plug into this spot it would go a long way to solidifying the offense and making it more consistent. This is easier said than done, as the team seems to be missing that extra bat right now to balance out the offense. Below is the collection of players Wedge has used behind Sizemore so far:

Player	GS	PA	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	OPS
A. Cabrera	10	46	0	5	4	3	7	.541
J. Carroll	7	34	0	3	6	4	2	.574
D. Dellucci*	8	31	3	8	3	1	4	1.044
J. Michaels^	3	17	0	0	1	1	5	.059
F. Gutierrez	2	8	0	0	0	0	0	.000
C. Blake	1	5	0	0	0	0	4	.600

*Platoons against RHP
^Platoons against LHP

I realize Michaels, Gutz, and Blake have not had a true opportunity in the two-hole, but I wanted to reinforce just how much it has varied between games. Carroll should not be batting that high in the lineup period, although I realize he was subbing for Cabrera on many occasions. AstroCab has played himself out of the top half of the lineup for the foreseeable future. It’s unfortunate that the Tribe’s second baseman has had a sophomore slump for two years in a row, but there really aren’t any alternatives this time. The bottom of the order is fine for Cabrera to take some of the immediate pressure off, although it’s far too early to even think about a demotion (Barfield’s .256 BA in Buffalo isn’t really promotion material anyway).

The most productive player in this position has been Dellucci, but he will definitely cool off at some point (he only has a .793 OPS in 83 PA overall) and is not an option to play every day. Francisco’s production will probably fall close to Dellucci’s, maybe a little better. It may be more beneficial to start the platoon squad behind Sizemore, rather than Gutz. Gutz’s struggles with righties would reduce his value at the top of the lineup and would lack the flexibility available with Francisco-Dellucci in bullpen match-ups.

The point is, there is no silver bullet for the Tribe’s lack of production in the two-hole. Each player or set of players has their share of weaknesses. I can understand, to an extent, why Wedge prefers these types of players between Sizemore and Victor. My guess is he is trying to infuse some extra speed at the top of the order before the clunkers in Victor, Hafner, and Garko come up to the plate. Top-to-bottom, this team is not built for speed. Still, wouldn’t having a guy who can get on base more often out weigh the benefit of having a speedier guy on less often? Not to confuse speedy with a base stealing threat; I was referring more to their pace around the bases.

Here’s the lineup I would propose:

Player	Bats	EQA	OBP
G. Sizemore	L	.316	.393
R. Garko	R	.277	.361
V. Martinez	S	.293	.380
D. Dellucci /	L	.294	.349
B. Francisco	R	.295	.333
T. Hafner	L	.243	.305
J. Peralta	R	.249	.279
F. Gutierrez	R	.249	.295
C. Blake	R	.237	.286
A. Cabrera	S	.204	.284

I agree with Wedge dropping Hafner down to sixth recently, so that isn’t much of a stretch. The main difference in my version of the lineup is moving Peralta down, Garko up, and dropping the platoon in the middle. With the exception of four at-bats in third, Garko has not had the opportunity to bat this high in the lineup before. One plus to moving Garko up is his OBP; his .351 OBP the last two years is consistently better than the rest of the lineup (excluding Grady, Vic, and Hafner). What Garko lacks in speed, he makes up for in plate discipline and some decent power. At the very least, Garko will reduce the number of outs generated by the two-hole and move Sizemore into scoring position more often. This opens the door for Martinez to rack up those RBI again.

It may sound like I’m putting a lot of faith in Sizemore to set the table, but he really is the crux of the offense. If Sizemore doesn’t score, Cleveland is going to struggle. Sizemore has had only four games this season where he has failed to reach base at least once. In 11 of those games where he reached base, he never crossed the plate (the team went 2-9 in those games). Therefore, Wedge needs to start bypassing what his gut tells him and start plugging his best hitters in at the top of the order. At the moment, Dellucci is one of the better hitters on the team, but I am very comfortable in saying Garko will significantly outperform him once he breaks out of his mini-slump.

To finish off the discussion on offense, I’ll examine Hafner’s slow start and the departure of Jason Michaels in my next post.

Series number two against New York opens up tomorrow, here’s hoping the bats wake up before then.