It Could Have Been Worse...eh, Not Really

This has been one ugly month for the Tribe, but what went wrong exactly? Having watched most of the July games, the problems that jump to mind are the offense (or lack thereof), Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook, and the Boston series. Since these issues are just off the top of my head, they are pretty useless in figuring out what went wrong (albeit fairly typical of what the majority of fans have on their minds right now). The best way I have of giving the Tribe's recent performance some perspective is through statistics, so lets step away from the ledge for a moment and take a look back at July.

On Pitching

Several quality pitching performances were wasted in July, but the trio of Lee, Westbrook, and Sabathia (yes, Sabathia) did little to help their record this month. Below are the July splits for the aforementioned pitchers:

Pitcher	GS	W	L	IP	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
Sabathia	5	1	4	31.2	29	5.12	1.42	.308
Lee	5	1	4	28	20	8.68	1.71	.305
Westbrook	5	0	3	31	12	5.52	1.68	.305

The biggest blemish on the pitching this month was Sabathia having his worst string of starts in the last 6 months, going back to last season. It's pretty obvious Sabathia will pitch better in August and already posted a gem against the Twins (7.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K) to finish out July. Westbrook also looked sharp against Minnesota last week (7 IP, 2 ER, 3 K); his best start since June 29.

Cliff Lee is no longer an issue after losing his job to AAA stud Aaron Laffey, who is almost guaranteed to be better than Lee given his groundball-pitcher mentality and dominance in the minors so far. Watching Lee pack his bags should be a sign to fans that the team is committed to winning no matter what. Signing a starting pitcher to a multi-million dollar contract extension only to demote him (and his 8.68 July ERA) the next season for poor performance is a bold, but necessary move for a team in a tight race like Cleveland.

Fausto Carmona has managed to carry the pitching staff on his back all month and is a key reason Cleveland hasn't been overtaken in the wild card standings yet. Carmona has been absolutely brilliant, going 5-1 with a 1.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 34 K and .216 BAA for the month of July. That's just sick.

Even though the team didn't acquire an extra arm to take some of the work load off of the Raffys, Aaron Fultz is scheduled to come off the disabled list very soon. Remember him? Fultz should be able to fill in as the player Shapiro tried to get before the deadline.

Fultz was very effective before a rib injury (right intercostal strain) put him on the DL June 24. Fultz had a 1.71 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an immaculate .153 BAA in 21 IP before his injury. He also had a BB rate of .43 per 9 IP. The scope of his contributions will obviously be contingent on Wedge using him as more than just the designated lefty out of the bullpen, but I think Fultz at least deserves a shot at an increased 7th or 8th inning role (if only to rest Betancourt and Perez on occasion).

For comparison, Octavio Dotel (one of Shap's primary trade targets) currently has a 3.91 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and .264 BAA in 23 IP in 2007. Dotel has only converted 72% of his save opportunities this year, not that he would have been closing for Cleveland anyway.

On the Offense

The Tribe's been going strong all season, although June saw a dropoff in games won compared to May and April. The most obvious reason for the dropoff was the production from the offense, scoring just 136 runs in June (.536 WP) compared to 180 in May (.633 WP). July was the team's first month with a losing record for the 2007 season and again, the offense appears to be the major culprit. While the pitching staff posted its best team ERA since April at 4.44, the team batted a season low .255 with a .745 OPS.

Is it really fair to put that much blame on the offense though? Here are some rough stats I pulled from the 26 games in July:

*The offense scored 5 runs or more in 12 games, going 9-3 in those games.

*They scored 3 runs or less in 10 games, going 3-7 in those games.

*On the flip side, the pitching staff surrendered 5 runs or more in 11 games, going 2-9 in those games.

In a nutshell, the offense just never got in sync with the pitching staff, resulting in many low scoring games and blowouts (which didn't necessarily result in a win) This skews the total runs scored somewhat, since the team seems to have failed to score enough nearly as many times as they failed to keep their opponent off the board.

The core of the offense, Sizemore, Martinez, and Hafner, all had their worst months simultaneously.

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sizemore	.245	.333	.453	.786
Martinez	.253	.358	.448	.806
Hafner	.250	.321	.400	.721

Does anyone else seriously expect Sizemore and Martinez to continue to struggle like this much longer? Yeah, me either. Granted Hafner has had his struggles most of the season, but a 25 point drop in OBP is unusual for a player with the second most walks in the American League. This team always seems to go hot and cold at the same time, so hopefully the next hot streak starts soon.

On the Standings

The Tribe was red-hot after coming out of a mediocre interleague showing, winning two four game series against Oakland and Tampa, followed by the dropoff discussed above. Sixteen of their 26 games were against sub-.500 teams where they finished 9-7. Cleveland did poorly against teams with a winning record though, going just 3-7.

Oddly enough, Detroit has not been able to separate itself from Cleveland this month, despite going 15-12 to the Tribe's 12-14. It may seem like Cleveland has been chasing Detroit in the standings for an eternity, but they have never trailed the Tigers by more than 2 games. The last time Cleveland was ever behind 2 games was July 23; right in the middle of their worst stretch of baseball. Detroit has been fairly consistent all season with a .575 win percentage on the season; July was their "worst" month as well with a .556 win percentage.

Therefore, it's not entirely reasonable to say Cleveland missed out on a prime opportunity to move up in the standings, since Detroit has not significantly faltered this month in the first place (it just seems like it given how close Cleveland has stayed in the standings). Detroit is at fault just as much as Cleveland for not capitalizing on the shortcomings of their competition.

If Cleveland can play up to any semblance of their true potential (see May and April) they have an excellent shot at regaining the division lead permanently.

The real issue is the wildcard standings. Unlike Detroit, New York has been tearing it up, going 19-9 in June. To put how scary that is into perspective, New York was 9 games out of the wild card on July 7th. They are currently 3 games back and show no signs of receding again. The AL wild card is shaping up as a three team race between Cleveland, Detroit, and New York, as I don't see Seattle hanging on long enough to be a factor. New York plays in a weaker division than Cleveland and with the intra-division behemoth that is August, that isn't going to do the Tribe any favors. I still think the wild card will come out of the Central, but the odds are getting longer as Detroit and Cleveland continue to flounder.

The Tribe's best hope is to try and win the season finale against New York and beat the living hell out of Detroit when they play each other. If I were Cleveland, I would act as if the wild card berth doesn't even exist, because it might as well based on the way they've been playing lately. Whether the team has become complacent atop the wild card standings or they are pressing to hang on, Wedge needs to right this ship immediately and get the Tribe going on all cylinders again. It's a long season, but not anymore.

This One's For the Pessimists

I'm back from my trip to the Motherland, aka Lyndhurst, Ohio. I was fortunate enough to go to the Cleveland-Chicago game on July 17 and see Garko slay the Sox in extra innings. Two of the three games I've been to this year (D.C., Texas @ Cle.) have ended in walk off wins; kind of a strange stroke of luck (although we lost each series in the end, hmmm). A lot's gone down while I've been away, so on to the latest from the Tribe....

Cleveland has played 97 games in the 2007 season with 65 remaining. The second half of the season is where things tend to get interesting, as the true fight for a playoff berth really takes off. Under manager Eric Wedge, Cleveland has arguably played their best baseball in the second half. Going into the All Star break with 52 wins (just a game behind Detroit) is unprecedented for a Wedgie team. Below is a breakdown of the team under Wedge’s tenure, from 2004 to 2006:

Year	Split		W	L	RS	RA	PCT
2004	1st Half		42	45	474	482	.483
	2nd Half		38	37	384	375	.507
2005	1st Half		47	41	406	364	.534
	2nd Half		46	28	384	278	.622
2006	1st Half		40	47	488	443	.460
	2nd Half		38	37	382	339	.507
2007	1st Half		52	36	471	414	.591

I excluded the 2003 season under Wedge because the team was still in full rebuilding mode and would only skew the data for the teams who had a realistic chance of contending, playoffs or otherwise.

It may be a stretch to compare these teams directly, but the basic structure and core players have been very similar from 2004 to 2007, so I think it’s fair for just a rough comparison. Despite changes around the core, this particular team of players under Wedge has a distinct pattern of performing better in the second half of the season.

Every Wedgie team has finished with a better win percentage in the second half than in the first half. A rough calculation has Cleveland finishing around 95 wins if they continue to win games at their current pace. They are already playing 3 games above their projected record, according to THT, and are only 1.5 games behind Detroit as I write this. Combine that with the 3^rd best record in the majors and Tribe fans have reason to be optimistic. Here are the AL Central standings as of July 22:

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	vs Cent.
Detroit	58	38	.604		21-17
Cleveland	57	40	.588	1.5	21-12
Minnesota	51	47	.520	8	14-20
Chicago	43	54	.443	15.5	17-16
Kansas City	43	54	.443	15.5	13-21

Cleveland also boasts one of the best intra-division records in the AL at 21-12. I posted a theory earlier in the season that the rest of the Central would beat up on each other, allowing the Tribe to move ahead of the pack. Looking at the standings, the theory seems to be holding up, although Detroit has recently closed the gap due to the Tribe’s poor play in the last Detroit and Chicago series’. A key difference so far has been how Cleveland (9-9) and Detroit (14-4) performed in interleague games this year.

Some fans may point out Detroit is only positioned to become stronger in the second half and Cleveland has yet to distance themselves from their division rival. This is true; Detroit has already gotten Kenny Rogers back and Zumaya and Rodney should be back later in the season to bolster their bullpen.

Cleveland has gotten some extra pitching help since the All Star break, though.

Westbrook is healthy again and while he hasn’t been particularly dominant, he has performed close to his career numbers. Jake has gone at least 6 innings in his five post DL starts, with an era of 4.50 and no wins. Remove his start against Detroit (career 6.59 era in 15 starts) where he gave up 5 runs over 7 IP and Jake’s era drops to 3.81 in his last five games. He’s really been a victim of poor run support in some of his better starts, but should start collecting wins as the law of averages takes over (the offense can’t go cold for every start).

Perez has pitched 29 innings this season and posted a 1.86 era, 34 Ks, and a .86 whip. The front office is currently pursuing another reliever to share the load with bullpen ace Betancourt, but Perez may be the answer they were looking for (he started the season in AAA). Perez was used primarily as a long reliever until he became a late inning regular in late June. He is currently the Tribe’s go-to pitcher for close games and is arguably the best pitcher in the bullpen right now.

Factor in a rebounding Hafner and the possible production from Gutierrez and Francisco in the outfield and the offense should be even better in the second half.

This is obviously a very simplistic evaluation of the team's performance, but it's encouraging nontheless.

In Other News

I'll be the first to admit that I've been drinking the Kansas City Kool Aid this year, proclaiming them contenders in 2 years, but they have been a team to be recokoned with lately. After taking two of three from Boston, K.C. has moved into a 3rd place tie with Chicago in the AL Central with a 43-54 record. While I hadn't printed it on this site, I had a strong feeling that the Royals would challenge Chicago for 3rd place this year. Given how much I despise Chicago, it would be great to see Buddy Bell and the Royals shove them into the basement.

Escape from D.C.

The Indians must have been feeling charitable this weekend because they just gave away two games to the pathetic Nationals. The Tribe really deserved to get swept, but Victor Martinez decided to give Chad Cordero a new reason to lose sleep after Game 2. You can't get too down on the team though; they ran into Washington's two aces (/checks boxscores), Jason Simontacchi and Matt Chico. Wait, what?

The Tribe seems to have an uncanny ability to make crappy, National League, journeyman pitchers look like perrenial All-Stars. Whatever happened to Jamie Moyer? At least I knew what to expect when we faced him, but Simontacchi? My theory is the Indians ate at RFK before each game this series because I can say from experience the food there is not pleasant.

I was at Saturday's game and I was genuinely impressed with the number of Tribe fans in attendance. We were loud, at least on the few occasions there was something to cheer about. All I can say is I'm very grateful Victor went all Chuck Norris on Chad Cordero and that Nook Logan has a short attention span (he got thrown out rounding third to end the game); that would have been quite a long walk of shame after the ruckus we made during that game. Props to the guy in front of my row making old-school Indian war whoops, well played sir.

Seriously though, the Tribe has been struggling the entire month, so the Nats series was essentially more of the same. On one hand, the pitching was great. Carmona, Byrd, and Westbrook all provided quality starts, giving up no more than 3 runs in any game. The bullpen didn't blow any of the games, (not that there was ever a lead to be blown) and got the job done. Gutierrez continued his campaign for starting right fielder, collecting 5 hits in 9 ABs and flashing the leather on defense.


Cleveland has been averaging 4.6 runs per game over the 22 games played in June so far. They were held to 3 runs or less in 10 of those games. With 6 games remaining in June, the Tribe has gone 10-12 and finished 9-9 in interleague play. As of Sunday, Cleveland is sitting 2 games behind Detroit, who are currently on a 7 game winning streak. Oh, and here's a fun stat: Kansas City and Minnesota went 10-8 and 11-7 in interleague play, respectively. The White Sox still sucked (4-14), but you already knew that.

Time to panic? For the second time this season, no. Looking at Cleveland's schedule this year, they have played 25 total series, including the two Seattle make-ups, and 74 games. The Tribe has only lost three series to sub-.500 teams (KC, Cincy, and DC). I intentionally left out the Yankees series, since I don't think it would be fair to the Tribe to classify them with those other three teams. Cleveland has only been swept once so far this year, at Yankee Stadium in April. Despite Detroit's recent 7-game win streak and Cleveland's mediocre play, they are only 2 games back.

It's pretty fair to say Wedge's teams tend to catch fire in the second half, so if they can at least keep Detroit close, I'm not going to be too worried at this point. The next homestand is crucial though, as the offense needs to get back on track and play strong leading up to the All-Star break. Interleague is done and two very winnable series with Oakland and Tampa Bay start Monday, so try to get it together guys.

Welcome Back Jake

The key performance from this weekend was Westbrook's return from the DL, giving up only 3 runs over 7 IP with a 13-6 groundball-flyball ratio. Jake looked very comfortable in his first start back, consistently finding the strikezone (60-28 strike-ball ratio) and making several clean plays off the mound. Even though he was facing a very weak lineup, his technique and pitch movement looked solid and I think he will be even sharper in his next start.

Jason Stanford is still with the team, but it will be interesting to see what Shapiro does with him. He could be a nice piece in a trade package for a veteran reliever, but Shap has given no indication of any serious trade activity, as usual. There are so many trade scenarios (involving Stanford, Lee, prospects, etc.) and such a small sample size for Stanford this year, that it would be difficult to even speculate on the situation right now. I'm not sure the team needs a trade, but the bullpen could use another veteran pitcher to share the load with Betancourt. Hernandez was supposed to be that guy, but he obviously didn't have enough left in the tank to be of any use.

I think the outfield is set unless a team ends up having a firesale and Shapiro deems it appropriate to deal some spare parts from the minors. Unless Gutierrez's numbers fall off a cliff in a couple weeks, he should be here to stay. Even though Nixon doesn't deserve much playing time at this point, he can still provide a pure platoon with Michaels to keep Wedge happy.

Wedge has shown no signs of deviating from the platoon tactics either, with an especially egregious substitution in a tight game. Michaels had gone 2-2 on the night, accounting for half the team's hits so far. The Nats brought out a righty to pitch with a man on first, so of course Nixon got to face him instead of J-Mike. Nixon grounds out into a double play to end the inning. Whatever happened to going with your gut sometimes? Aren't managers allowed to go against the numbers on occasion? Apparently Wedge didn't trust Nixon's defense that day though, substituting him for AAA call-up Ben Francisco after one inning. Good grief.

Finally...

Random Trivia: The 1989 classic Major League was nominated for Best Foreign Film by the Japanese Film Academy. See, someone beside Cleveland fans like that movie.

All According to Plan...

The AL Central has played out as expected so far, with the top three teams wearing each other down. Parity seems to be the key word in the Central this year, with four of the five teams over .500 and the fourth place Tigers only 2 games out of first place. Below are the Central standings as the month of April wraps up.

	W - L	vs Central
Cleveland	13-7	6-2
Chicago	12-9	7-4
Minnesota	13-10	4-6
Detroit	12-10	6-5
Kansas City	7-15	5-8

If the intra-division records above are any indication, this is going to be a highly contested division. On that note, Cleveland's 6-2 record against Chicago and Minnesota is impressive so far. Even the Royals are showing improvement, with 5 wins against division rivals already (they had only 27 all last year). Yes it's only April, but with any luck this trend will continue, allowing Cleveland to seperate itself from the rest of the pack early on.