Suck It, Steinbrenner: Santana Goes to Queens

It appears Johan Santana will be pitching in the National League for the foreseeable future. Minnesota will trade their ace to the New York Mets for minor league outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey. The Mets have until Friday at 5pm to complete a contract extension with Santana or the trade is void.

I'm not sure who benefits the most here: the Mets or the teams involved in an arms race with the Yanks and the Sox. Cleveland is just one of many AL contenders who no longer have to worry about Santana standing in their way in the playoffs for the next six years. Was anyone else sweating the idea of the best pitcher in baseball getting run support from New York or Boston instead of the anemic Twins?

The dangerous part is that Santana's AL East suitors are built to win now and probably would have guaranteed themselves another championship in acquiring the crown jewel of Minnesota. I may be overestimating the robustness of New York and Boston's farm systems, since each team must have hit their talent threshold for this deal not to go down earlier. I'm fairly confident both teams could have taken a substantial loss in prospects and still be playoff-ready for the next several years anyway.

The funny part is few media outlets were even discussing the Mets as a major player. Minaya was able to swoop in after everyone else had given up and vault his team to the top of the heap in the National League. Keith Law points out that besides giving the Mets a legit ace again (Pedro's health is still unclear), it takes the pressure off John Maine and Oliver Perez and allows them to move down to a more appropriate spot in the rotation. Law breaks down the prospects the Mets shipped out and doesn't come away too impressed. At first glance, I'd agree that the Mets had the lesser trade package in terms of the amount of "raw" talent and lack of major league-ready prospects involved.

Judging by the way the deal went down, I'd guess Minnesota may have ended up with a lesser package than originally advertised if they stuck with the Yanks or the Sox (maybe negotiations went south after their initial snub) and decided to cut their losses by sending Santana to Queens. Tribe fans owe Omar Minaya for removing one less obstacle for Cleveland next season, both in the Central and the playoff field.

In regards to a potential Sabathia trade, the lack of blockbuster prospects in the Santana trade is troubling. I honestly thought the Twins would walk away with a Phil Hughes-Ian Kennedy type deal, but ended up with AA baller Carlos Gomez and company. Judging by Shapiro's recent comments though, a Sabathia trade seems to be a remote possibility now:

I don't see us ever closing the door, there's no reason to do it. Even if he files for free agency, I still think we'll be an active player.

I had been an early advocate of trading Sabathia if the Front Office was certain a deal couldn't get done, but I suppose Shap's stance is somewhat encouraging. Either the contract negotiations are making positive strides or that's Shapiro Speak for "we need C.C. to win in 2008, so stop asking."

The fun part comes when Santana's new contract leaks out. Hopefully Sabathia doesn't get any ideas from his fellow lefty or that negotiating table is going to get a lot longer overnight.

Finally...

I kinda dropped the ball on the Betancourt extension, but I think it may end up as the Tribe's most significant move of the offseason. Raffy signed a two year extension with a club option for 2010. According to the Indians' website, "Betancourt will make $5.4 million over the two guaranteed years in the deal, and the option is worth another $5 million. Without revealing the details, Shapiro said the contract includes bonuses, should Betancourt ever take over as the Indians' closer."

Not that Betancourt was going anywhere soon, but he has as much potential to be the team's closer as anyone once Borowski's contract runs out after this season. Bullpen performance is hard to project (see 2006), but Cleveland has the depth to handle the late innings in a pinch, with Betancourt, Kobayashi, Lewis, and Perez under team control until 2010.

With all the crazy contracts being thrown at mediocre relievers these days, locking up Betancourt for $5 mil a year is the definition of a bargain. The three-year option setup also leaves the club with minimum risk, given the volatile nature of relief pitching (/knocks on wood). Overall an excellent contract for the Tribe.

Memphis Blues

The annual GM meetings have come and gone, but not before altering the balance of power in the AL Central. Detroit sold the farm (literally) to acquire two guaranteed years each of Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Renteria and Dontrelle Willis. This deal has been analyzed to death by now, but I guess I should throw my hat in the ring for you, the esteemed reader.

First of all, this is a pretty obvious "win now" approach by Detroit. In one offseason, Detroit shipped out Jair Jurrjens, Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin and a mess of other lesser prospects. I'm not sure what the Tiger's front office thought of Jurrjens, but I know Atlanta must have thought pretty highly of him to trade Renteria with two years left on his contract. Tribe fans may remember Jurrjens from his 2-1 win against Carmona in late August; a game where I came away very frustrated (read, impressed) with the rookie. Miller and Maybin were the undisputed crown jewels of Detroit's farm system for the immediate future. The Tigers sacrificed long-term organizational depth for short-term dividends.

Many fans have been quick to point out Detroit's aging roster as motivation to make the blockbuster trade now and I agree with this point. Miguel Cabrera (24) and Curtis Granderson (26) are the only starters on Detroit's roster below the age of 30. In that regard, I at least understand where Detroit is coming from, although I don't entirely agree with the move from a philosophical standpoint. Such a sweeping trade is better suited to an aging team like Detroit than a youthful contender like Cleveland, so maybe that's where my bias lies. Some of their key players, like Rodriguez and Sheffield, have already shown a decline in performance or an increasing risk of injury. They may stink in a few years, but the Tigers are going for the throat the next few seasons.

The interesting thing is that even if Detroit suddenly emerges as this Divisional monster and blocks Cleveland from the playoffs (/knocks on wood), they'll still have to contend with Boston (who may have Santana in a year) and New York (who may just purchase the Dominican Republic at some point), in addition to the Tribe. Not exactly a guaranteed Series appearance, is it ESPN? Meanwhile, Cleveland has a much younger team with their core players under contract longer than Cabrera, Renteria, or those other geezers will be (productive) in the Motor City. That's all too far down the road to predict, but it's something to think about in terms of Detroit's much ballyhooed "win now" approach.

Second, just how much will Cabrera and Renteria actually help Detroit next season? Let's take a look at the production from the positions they will be replacing (stats cited from Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus):

Player	Position	EQA	OPS+	WARP2
C. Guillen	SS (old)	.282	123	7.0
E. Renteria	SS (new)	.298	125	7.4
B. Inge	3B (old)	.238	80	6.0
M. Cabrera	3B (new)	.319	150	11.2
S. Casey	1B (old)	.254	96	2.4
C. Guillen	1B (new)	.282	123	7.0

With Guillen moving from SS to 1B in 2008, Detroit essentially traded for Renteria to upgrade 1B. In that sense, the Tigers made a significant upgrade, but only at one position. Guillen and Renteria were similar players in 2007. Renteria may be overrated going into next season though, since he has posted an OPS+ over 115 only one other time in his career (2003). I don't think it's realistic to expect him to do nearly as well as he did in '07, given the disparity between the NL West and AL Central.

Now before you start stressing out about how ridiculous Cabrera's numbers are, put them in context. Several key members of the Tigers' offense will not be as hot as they were last season. I would be shocked if Ordonez is able to duplicate his MVP caliber season next year. Sheffield has health and age issues, while Renteria's been discussed above. Even Placido Polanco had a career year in 2007, so fat chance of him repeating a performance he's done only once before in his career (notice the trend yet?). Granted, it's not a stretch for several of these guys to perform at a high level in 2008, but it's not as bad as it sounds for the rest of the Central (except for the White Sox because they are going to be horrible. Don't choke Ozzie!).

I think the problem is people are acting like Cabrera will be plugged into Detroit's lineup circa 2007, which just isn't true. Baseball rarely works in a linear fashion like that; player and team performance evolves annually. Granted, offensive production is not as volatile as bullpen pitching for example, but I still don't feel too far off the mark given the makeup of the Tiger's lineup. Cabrera will bring some heavy-duty offense to Detroit, but at the same time, many aspects of Detroit's lineup should regress back to their normal numbers.

Now, as far as Dontrelle Willis goes, Tribe fans have nothing to worry about. Show me that beautiful table:

Year	GS	IP	ERA	SLGA	HR/9	WHIP	K/BB
2005	34	236.3	2.63	.352	.42	1.13	3.09
2006	34	223.3	3.87	.397	.85	1.42	1.92
2007	35	205.3	5.17	.477	1.27	1.60	1.67

Willis has been in free fall the past two seasons. Not only has his strikeout to walk ratio crashed, but he's been getting hit hard. Poor control and an opposition slugging .477 against is a dangerous combination. Willis' decline wasn't particularly gradual either; a 22 win ace in 2005 and a 5.17 ERA two years later?

Part of the D-Train's decline can be attributed to his change in mechanics over the years; the reasons behind these changes are less clear. Carlos Gomez breaks down Willis' mechanics in a great article at THT here. Whatever the problem, Detroit is going to have to fix it if Willis is going to survive pitching in the American League. I'm guessing the Tigers are confident in their ability to resuscitate Willis' past performance as an ace because right now he doesn't appear to be much of an upgrade over the potential stud they gave up in Andrew Miller, or even the promising Jurrjens.

I may be in the minority on this, but I just don't see Detroit surpassing Cleveland in overall talent with this trade. They certainly pulled a lot closer, but I can't believe people are calling the division already, give me a break.

The worst thing Cleveland could have done was to make a knee-jerk reaction to Detroit's trades. Jason Bay? Really? I was against the idea of trading for Bay. I don't see him bouncing back from such a huge decline in performance and I think he is done as an elite hitter. If Bay's reported knee issues are the root of the problem, that's just another reason not to invest a boatload of talent in him via trade. It seems someone's not telling the whole truth here because 28 year old athletes don't usually crash and burn for an entire season like that. No one seems to know the reason why he appears to have suddenly hit a wall, which is suspicious in its own right. I'm not going to go there though, since it would be pure speculation. The fact is, Cleveland avoided a foolish reactionary trade and they are better off for it.

The best thing Cleveland could do to "respond" to Detroit is to extend Sabathia this offseason. As much as I would like to see left field upgraded, Sabathia is still the Tribe's priority at the negotiating table right now.

CHAMPS!

2007 CENTRAL DIVISION CHAMPIONS

GO CELEBRATE TRIBE FANS!!!

Next Year is Now

It’s a strange feeling watching your team in a playoff race when you already know the outcome. Sure there were some frustrating stretches, but did anyone really, truly doubt Cleveland was going to miss the playoffs this season? I’ve expressed doubts in this forum before, but I always knew in the back of my mind I was watching a great baseball team. Maybe it was just a fan’s blind faith.

As the Tribe closed out a sweep of the Tigers though, I can’t say I really had any sense of shock or surprise; it was more like a contained joy or excitement. Maybe I should have been more amped up for the Detroit series (which I didn’t miss a minute of), but it’s hard to be on the edge of your seat if you already know the ending. I really couldn’t be prouder of my (i.e. your) team right now knowing where they’ve come from and where they’re going; that in itself is extremely satisfying. So what went down to put Cleveland in this position?

August 1: Cleveland was in the midst of a horrible offensive slump and had an active 4-game losing streak. Detroit was struggling to tread water as well, clinging to a one game advantage in the Central.

September 1: Cleveland’s offense caught fire, the pitching staff gobbled up wins like Pacman, and a rookie infielder from Venezuela was showing everyone why he deserves to wear the number on his back. Detroit was still stuck in neutral as the Tribe built a 5.5 game lead and churned out 8 straight wins.

September 17: Detroit has managed to right the ship just in time for the series finale against Cleveland. The Tigers are bringing a renewed confidence and a 5-game winning streak to the Jake. Cleveland’s lead has held steady at 5.5 games, but faces one last obstacle before they can put the division in a stranglehold.

September 20: Cleveland completes its sweep of Detroit, standing atop a 7.5 game lead after knocking 6 games off their magic ticket to the postseason.

According to the Baseball Prospectus postseason odds, Cleveland has a 99.95680 percent chance of winning their division. Feel free to round up to the nearest tenth, Tribe fans.

Cleveland has compiled a .667 win percentage against teams within their division; the best intra-division record in the majors (Boston comes in second with a .579 WP). The Tribe also went 12-6 against Detroit, scoring more runs (99) against them than any of Detroit’s opponents this season.

I’m not sure what the Tigers were expecting against a team that had gone 30-16 since August 1, but getting tossed to the curb in a three game sweep was probably not what they had in mind. Detroit actually led in all three games, but failed to hold a lead in any of them. To be fair, it’s difficult to hold a lead when your pitchers can’t even keep the ball in the yard. The Tribe’s offense smashed 8 homeruns in three games against the best of the Detroit pitching staff (or what’s left of it, at least). Detroit’s ERA over the series was 5.67, including spectacular failures by Guitar Hero Joel Zumaya (1 IP, 3 ER, BS) and ace-by-default Justin Verlander (5.2 IP, 7 ER).

It’s difficult to single out any one Indian in the field, as each player made a key contribution at some point in the series; it was a true team effort. While the offense and defense were top notch, the bullpen was even better.

Given the obstacles Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook ran into in Games 1 and 2, the bullpen’s dominance played a pivotal role in deciding the series. Here are the combined splits for the Tribe bullpen in the Detroit series:

IP	H	BB	K	ER
9.2	4	1	12	0

Jensen Lewis was among the bullpen stalwarts, bailing out Westbrook in Game 2 with a brilliant 3 inning, 4 strikeout performance. Lewis was pitching in AA Akron at the start of the season and is now primed to make the playoff roster for an AL powerhouse. Raffy Betancourt continued to blow batters away and Joe Bo picked up two impressive, 1-2-3 saves. Borowski now leads the AL with 42 saves. Aaron Fultz also made an appearance in relief. Cleveland’s bullpen has been performing all along, to the tune of a 3.76 season ERA.

The Tribe didn’t just knock down the door to the Central Division; they blew it away with a bazooka.

I hadn’t even mentioned the captain of the pitching staff. If Sabathia doesn’t win the Cy Young this year, I will personally egg Jon Heyman’s house (I don’t actually know if he’s a voter, but I don’t really need a reason for this guy). I realize the Cy Young, like the MVP, has lost most of its credibility as a measure of performance, but I know how much these awards can mean to the players. Who wouldn’t be stoked to win the award for best pitcher in baseball? In that regard, I’d be really disappointed for Charles Carsten if he didn’t take the Cy this season; he’s earned it.

Chances are, if you’re reading this you already know the magnitude of Sabathia’s contributions to the Tribe, so I won’t spend much time explaining his leadership, maturity, toughness, and superb fashion sense. That’s a given. Just for fun though, let’s take a look at the season splits for the Crooked Cap:

IP	W-L	K	BB	ERA	WHIP	K/BB	CG
234	18-7	205	36	3.19	1.14	5.69	4

It may be a slim margin, but C.C. has been the best pitcher in the American League this season (and arguably half of last season, but I digress) according to the stats above. If wins are your thing, just imagine how many Sabathia would have with the kind of run support Josh Beckett has gotten this season. Boston has averaged 6.45 runs per game with Beckett on the mound, while Sabathia has gotten 5.10 RPG on the season. Sabathia also went through a stretch where he gave up 2 runs or less in 10 straight starts (July 24-Sept. 3), but picked up just 3 wins due to poor run support. You would hope a stat like that would weigh heavily on the minds of voters, who tend to over emphasize a candidate's win-loss record in the first place.

Sabathia also has an edge over Beckett in win shares, 22-18; implying C.C. has been more valuable to his team than Beckett (obviously a rough metric here, but it’s good for a brief look like this one). Unfortunately, I’m not much of a sabermetrician, but I’m fairly confident that a more in depth analysis of Sabathia’s value as an individual player and to his team would exceed Beckett’s in most cases.

Fun Fact: According to Stats, Inc., the only other left-hander since 1901 to post a better K/BB ratio than Sabathia's mark this season was Randy Johnson, who had a 6.59 ratio in 2004.

C.C. would probably be the first to tell you that the Cy Young doesn’t mean jack compared to a playoff run though. I’m a believer in the old adage, good pitching beats good hitting, and Cleveland’s frontline starters are no exception. Any team with a 1-2 punch as formidable as C.C. and Fausto has more than a reasonable shot at going deep into the playoffs.

I’m extremely superstitious when it comes to baseball (calling the division race just now is about as bold as it gets for me), but Tribe fans have every right to be obscenely excited about their team right now. The Brownies can wait, it’s Tribe Time now.

Random Notes

The STO crew recognized Tribe strength and conditioning coach Tim Maxey as the recipient of the Professional Baseball Strength and Conditioning Coaches Society’s Coach of the Year Award. Congrats Tim, it’s certainly well deserved.

There was an interesting article on the Hardball Times this week on soon-to-be retired ump Bruce Froemming. It featured some insightful anecdotes and a pretty amazing list of events Bruce has been linked to over his 37 year career. Check it out here.

4.5

Blogging and the first week of classes definitely don't get along very well; might have to hire a secretary or something. On to the Tribe...

Get happy Tribe fans.

Cleveland swept the Twinkies in style Wednesday by becoming the only team in the history of the universe to hand Johan Santana three losses in a season, going 3-1 in four meetings against the lefty. C.C. Sabathia was finally awarded his 15th win of the season after suffering from poor run support in his last four tries. Asdrubal Cabrera started off the Tribe's 4-run first inning with a 2-run uppercut blast over the mini-monster in left field. Victor, Gutz, and Lofton homered, doubled, and singled off Santana to score the other two runs. The Tribe's offense collected 10 hits on the night (only Hafner and Blake failed to reach base), although Santana was able to prevent any further scoring.

Cleveland dominated the Twins during the three game series, scoring 18 runs with a team ERA of 3.67. Minnesota never held a lead over the 27 innings played. Minnesota marks the Tribe's fourth straight series win, plus a two game split with Detroit.

On July 31, the team had a 60-46 record and trailed Detroit by a game, but Cleveland has quietly built a winning record in August. By going 15-11 this month (with two games remaining), the Tribe has pushed their second half record back over .500 at 23-20.

The Tribe's offense has been running on all cylinders since their 11-8 win over Detroit, averaging 5.87 runs per game. Add that to an already white hot pitching staff (3.31 ERA in August) and you're looking at a serious momentum shift in Cleveland.

I think the combination of getting demolished by the Yanks and having to go into Detroit a half game down really woke this team up. It's almost like lighting struck, but that Detroit series in the middle of the month seems to be the where the Tribe started to play with the fire and focus that had the rest of the league sweating the first two months of the season.

It might just be a coincidence, but AstroCab did make his major league debut a week before the team really took off again. Hmmm... More on #13 in my next post.

Meanwhile, Detroit has continued to free-fall and now sits 4.5 games back with only three head-to-head games remaining with Cleveland. The Tigers pitching continued to get battered this week as they lost their latest series to the dangerous Kansas City Royals. K.C. actually has a better second half record (20-22) than Detroit (19-27) and has posted a winning record the past two months.

Finally...

It's the end of an era in Cleveland. Once Kansas City finishes its overhaul of Kauffman Stadium in 2009, Cleveland will lose the title of Largest Freestanding Scoreboard in the United States. KC's trademark crest scoreboard will be remodeled as a video screen, beating out the Jake's 149 by 36 foot A/V monolith. Losing the Jake's claim to fame to a division rival just doesn't seem right. I think Dolan should take some of that free agent money Shapiro is selfishly hoarding away and blow it all on an even bigger scoreboard. That'll show KC who runs the Central. What else do Cleveland fans have to brag about? Wait, we're still in first place? Oh. Well, nevermind then.

Clash of the Mediocre Titans

We've got to get it going and we've got to get it going now.
-Jake Westbrook

The New York series wasn’t exactly the massacre that some fans (Cleveland or otherwise) may lead you to believe. Cause for concern? Yes. Painful? Absolutely. Yet, despite getting absolutely thrashed by the Evil Empire and humiliated at the hands of the local bandwagon fans (forgive them Jobu, they know not what they do) the Tribe is still, still tied for first place in the central division as I write this.

What the hell happened to the AL Central? It went from the toughest division in baseball (on paper) to the NL West circa 2005. Don’t get me wrong, I couldn’t be more grateful that Detroit has sucked as bad as us, but come on. Is anyone going to try and win this division? Should we just give the playoff berth to Philly out of pity and call it a season? Enough already.

The Baseball Gods have lined these two former juggernauts up for 5 meetings over a stretch of 10 days to decide the division. Yes, the division. The Tribe has hit rock bottom after getting kicked around by New York the upcoming Detroit series may make or break the team’s confidence. The Tribe has to snap out of this funk and break free from the back and forth garbage that constitutes a pennant race in this division.

Like I've said before, this team should not even think about winning the wild card. Unless New York goes into a highly unlikely tailspin, Cleveland has a very slim chance at taking the wild card berth. Taking the division crown at this point certainly seems like an easier proposition than battling Seattle, New York, Anaheim, and Boston for the wild card (yes, I was wrong about Seattle and New York earlier in the season, but I see them taking their respective division races down to the wire now).

New York was not a defining series for Cleveland’s regular season; important, but not definitive. Cleveland's season will live or die based on how they play against Detroit. Hopefully the team is able to endure the enormous pressure of these games and finally break through in the standings.

I’m hoping the familiarity with Detroit will make it easier on the players to get locked in and not look so listless. There’s definitely been a rivalry brewing between Cleveland and Detroit the last two years and I hope the leaders in the clubhouse exploit it for all it’s worth.

Pointing Fingers

After suffering though this slump for nearly a month and a half now, I'm having a hard time defending Wedgie or Shelton with much enthusiasm. Just how much of the blame do the manager and hitting coach deserve though? Well, unless you’re a player or an especially privileged member of the press, chances are you have no idea who’s to blame.

Wedge could’ve been berating players left and right during that pitiful New York series. Shelton might be living out of the film room and offering 24 hour, private batting cage sessions for his struggling players. You would hope something along those lines is going on in the Indian’s clubhouse, but I certainly wouldn’t expect (nor want) anybody who knows better to speak out about it. You really want to sink the ship? Have a player spout a vote of no confidence in his manager during a post-game interview.

It's been said many times before, but there really is a limited amount that a hitting coach can help his hitters. Players at this level know what they're doing and it's not like the hitting coach is going to be messing with anyone's mechanics right now. The hitting coach is basically there to remind players of what got them to the bigs and make sure they keep their approach consistent, maybe helping them tweak their approach for a particular situation or pitcher.

Now the secondary role of the hitting coach is to keep his hitters motivated and focused. I'm convinced the Tribe's offensive slump is a mental problem, but I have no evidence that the hitting coach has not been doing his job in that department.

The onus is on the players at this point, there's only so much Shelton can do for these guys. He can lecture the players all he wants, but if they don't execute in the end, none of that matters.

If Shelton is doing his job and doing everything he can in his power to try and get his players focused (there's no direct evidence whether he is or not) then he does not deserve to be fired. He can't baby sit these guys 24/7, at some point, the players have to take some accountability and do their job.

On the other end of the bench, one of Wedge’s primary duties is to keep the players focused, motivated, and ready to go each game. Like I said, nobody knows how fired up Wedge gets behind closed doors, but as far as I can tell, he has the respect of his players. Respect for a manager can be every bit as effective as aggression or intimidation as a source of motivation and focus. Wedge has maintained a similar managerial style for almost five years now, I think the guy knows how to run the team.

Wedge is far from perfect, but it’s amazing how much his ability to lead the team comes into question at times. If he really had that poor of a relationship with his players and staff, would Shapiro have extended him in the middle of this season? I doubt it.

Wedge and Shelton’s body of work suggests that they know what they’re doing. I don't think it's fair to hold them to a double standard where their body of work and history of working with these players is ignored once a bad slump hits. As a fan, there's really no definitive way of knowing how much blame should be placed on the players and how much should be placed on the coaches. For what it's worth, I'm currently leaning towards the players as the worst offenders right now.

Baseball is a cyclic game and this lineup is too talented to count it out just yet. I’m willing to give Wedge and his staff the benefit of the doubt here. Judging by Shapiro’s maneuvers this season (shipping out Lee and Rouse, bringing in Lofton), any dead weight won’t be tolerated this year. If Shelton is really the locus of this prolonged slump, I think he would have been replaced by now. Until then, I think the team should stick to its guns and go with the coaching staff that got the team this far in the first place.

Bottomline: the players need to wake up and start looking ahead at what they need to do, rather than focusing on the past. Cleveland and Detroit have reached a stalemate in the standings thus far and these five games may be the jolt the Tribe needs to start running on all cylinders again.

It Could Have Been Worse...eh, Not Really

This has been one ugly month for the Tribe, but what went wrong exactly? Having watched most of the July games, the problems that jump to mind are the offense (or lack thereof), Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook, and the Boston series. Since these issues are just off the top of my head, they are pretty useless in figuring out what went wrong (albeit fairly typical of what the majority of fans have on their minds right now). The best way I have of giving the Tribe's recent performance some perspective is through statistics, so lets step away from the ledge for a moment and take a look back at July.

On Pitching

Several quality pitching performances were wasted in July, but the trio of Lee, Westbrook, and Sabathia (yes, Sabathia) did little to help their record this month. Below are the July splits for the aforementioned pitchers:

Pitcher	GS	W	L	IP	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
Sabathia	5	1	4	31.2	29	5.12	1.42	.308
Lee	5	1	4	28	20	8.68	1.71	.305
Westbrook	5	0	3	31	12	5.52	1.68	.305

The biggest blemish on the pitching this month was Sabathia having his worst string of starts in the last 6 months, going back to last season. It's pretty obvious Sabathia will pitch better in August and already posted a gem against the Twins (7.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K) to finish out July. Westbrook also looked sharp against Minnesota last week (7 IP, 2 ER, 3 K); his best start since June 29.

Cliff Lee is no longer an issue after losing his job to AAA stud Aaron Laffey, who is almost guaranteed to be better than Lee given his groundball-pitcher mentality and dominance in the minors so far. Watching Lee pack his bags should be a sign to fans that the team is committed to winning no matter what. Signing a starting pitcher to a multi-million dollar contract extension only to demote him (and his 8.68 July ERA) the next season for poor performance is a bold, but necessary move for a team in a tight race like Cleveland.

Fausto Carmona has managed to carry the pitching staff on his back all month and is a key reason Cleveland hasn't been overtaken in the wild card standings yet. Carmona has been absolutely brilliant, going 5-1 with a 1.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 34 K and .216 BAA for the month of July. That's just sick.

Even though the team didn't acquire an extra arm to take some of the work load off of the Raffys, Aaron Fultz is scheduled to come off the disabled list very soon. Remember him? Fultz should be able to fill in as the player Shapiro tried to get before the deadline.

Fultz was very effective before a rib injury (right intercostal strain) put him on the DL June 24. Fultz had a 1.71 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an immaculate .153 BAA in 21 IP before his injury. He also had a BB rate of .43 per 9 IP. The scope of his contributions will obviously be contingent on Wedge using him as more than just the designated lefty out of the bullpen, but I think Fultz at least deserves a shot at an increased 7th or 8th inning role (if only to rest Betancourt and Perez on occasion).

For comparison, Octavio Dotel (one of Shap's primary trade targets) currently has a 3.91 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and .264 BAA in 23 IP in 2007. Dotel has only converted 72% of his save opportunities this year, not that he would have been closing for Cleveland anyway.

On the Offense

The Tribe's been going strong all season, although June saw a dropoff in games won compared to May and April. The most obvious reason for the dropoff was the production from the offense, scoring just 136 runs in June (.536 WP) compared to 180 in May (.633 WP). July was the team's first month with a losing record for the 2007 season and again, the offense appears to be the major culprit. While the pitching staff posted its best team ERA since April at 4.44, the team batted a season low .255 with a .745 OPS.

Is it really fair to put that much blame on the offense though? Here are some rough stats I pulled from the 26 games in July:

*The offense scored 5 runs or more in 12 games, going 9-3 in those games.

*They scored 3 runs or less in 10 games, going 3-7 in those games.

*On the flip side, the pitching staff surrendered 5 runs or more in 11 games, going 2-9 in those games.

In a nutshell, the offense just never got in sync with the pitching staff, resulting in many low scoring games and blowouts (which didn't necessarily result in a win) This skews the total runs scored somewhat, since the team seems to have failed to score enough nearly as many times as they failed to keep their opponent off the board.

The core of the offense, Sizemore, Martinez, and Hafner, all had their worst months simultaneously.

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sizemore	.245	.333	.453	.786
Martinez	.253	.358	.448	.806
Hafner	.250	.321	.400	.721

Does anyone else seriously expect Sizemore and Martinez to continue to struggle like this much longer? Yeah, me either. Granted Hafner has had his struggles most of the season, but a 25 point drop in OBP is unusual for a player with the second most walks in the American League. This team always seems to go hot and cold at the same time, so hopefully the next hot streak starts soon.

On the Standings

The Tribe was red-hot after coming out of a mediocre interleague showing, winning two four game series against Oakland and Tampa, followed by the dropoff discussed above. Sixteen of their 26 games were against sub-.500 teams where they finished 9-7. Cleveland did poorly against teams with a winning record though, going just 3-7.

Oddly enough, Detroit has not been able to separate itself from Cleveland this month, despite going 15-12 to the Tribe's 12-14. It may seem like Cleveland has been chasing Detroit in the standings for an eternity, but they have never trailed the Tigers by more than 2 games. The last time Cleveland was ever behind 2 games was July 23; right in the middle of their worst stretch of baseball. Detroit has been fairly consistent all season with a .575 win percentage on the season; July was their "worst" month as well with a .556 win percentage.

Therefore, it's not entirely reasonable to say Cleveland missed out on a prime opportunity to move up in the standings, since Detroit has not significantly faltered this month in the first place (it just seems like it given how close Cleveland has stayed in the standings). Detroit is at fault just as much as Cleveland for not capitalizing on the shortcomings of their competition.

If Cleveland can play up to any semblance of their true potential (see May and April) they have an excellent shot at regaining the division lead permanently.

The real issue is the wildcard standings. Unlike Detroit, New York has been tearing it up, going 19-9 in June. To put how scary that is into perspective, New York was 9 games out of the wild card on July 7th. They are currently 3 games back and show no signs of receding again. The AL wild card is shaping up as a three team race between Cleveland, Detroit, and New York, as I don't see Seattle hanging on long enough to be a factor. New York plays in a weaker division than Cleveland and with the intra-division behemoth that is August, that isn't going to do the Tribe any favors. I still think the wild card will come out of the Central, but the odds are getting longer as Detroit and Cleveland continue to flounder.

The Tribe's best hope is to try and win the season finale against New York and beat the living hell out of Detroit when they play each other. If I were Cleveland, I would act as if the wild card berth doesn't even exist, because it might as well based on the way they've been playing lately. Whether the team has become complacent atop the wild card standings or they are pressing to hang on, Wedge needs to right this ship immediately and get the Tribe going on all cylinders again. It's a long season, but not anymore.

This One's For the Pessimists

I'm back from my trip to the Motherland, aka Lyndhurst, Ohio. I was fortunate enough to go to the Cleveland-Chicago game on July 17 and see Garko slay the Sox in extra innings. Two of the three games I've been to this year (D.C., Texas @ Cle.) have ended in walk off wins; kind of a strange stroke of luck (although we lost each series in the end, hmmm). A lot's gone down while I've been away, so on to the latest from the Tribe....

Cleveland has played 97 games in the 2007 season with 65 remaining. The second half of the season is where things tend to get interesting, as the true fight for a playoff berth really takes off. Under manager Eric Wedge, Cleveland has arguably played their best baseball in the second half. Going into the All Star break with 52 wins (just a game behind Detroit) is unprecedented for a Wedgie team. Below is a breakdown of the team under Wedge’s tenure, from 2004 to 2006:

Year	Split		W	L	RS	RA	PCT
2004	1st Half		42	45	474	482	.483
	2nd Half		38	37	384	375	.507
2005	1st Half		47	41	406	364	.534
	2nd Half		46	28	384	278	.622
2006	1st Half		40	47	488	443	.460
	2nd Half		38	37	382	339	.507
2007	1st Half		52	36	471	414	.591

I excluded the 2003 season under Wedge because the team was still in full rebuilding mode and would only skew the data for the teams who had a realistic chance of contending, playoffs or otherwise.

It may be a stretch to compare these teams directly, but the basic structure and core players have been very similar from 2004 to 2007, so I think it’s fair for just a rough comparison. Despite changes around the core, this particular team of players under Wedge has a distinct pattern of performing better in the second half of the season.

Every Wedgie team has finished with a better win percentage in the second half than in the first half. A rough calculation has Cleveland finishing around 95 wins if they continue to win games at their current pace. They are already playing 3 games above their projected record, according to THT, and are only 1.5 games behind Detroit as I write this. Combine that with the 3^rd best record in the majors and Tribe fans have reason to be optimistic. Here are the AL Central standings as of July 22:

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	vs Cent.
Detroit	58	38	.604		21-17
Cleveland	57	40	.588	1.5	21-12
Minnesota	51	47	.520	8	14-20
Chicago	43	54	.443	15.5	17-16
Kansas City	43	54	.443	15.5	13-21

Cleveland also boasts one of the best intra-division records in the AL at 21-12. I posted a theory earlier in the season that the rest of the Central would beat up on each other, allowing the Tribe to move ahead of the pack. Looking at the standings, the theory seems to be holding up, although Detroit has recently closed the gap due to the Tribe’s poor play in the last Detroit and Chicago series’. A key difference so far has been how Cleveland (9-9) and Detroit (14-4) performed in interleague games this year.

Some fans may point out Detroit is only positioned to become stronger in the second half and Cleveland has yet to distance themselves from their division rival. This is true; Detroit has already gotten Kenny Rogers back and Zumaya and Rodney should be back later in the season to bolster their bullpen.

Cleveland has gotten some extra pitching help since the All Star break, though.

Westbrook is healthy again and while he hasn’t been particularly dominant, he has performed close to his career numbers. Jake has gone at least 6 innings in his five post DL starts, with an era of 4.50 and no wins. Remove his start against Detroit (career 6.59 era in 15 starts) where he gave up 5 runs over 7 IP and Jake’s era drops to 3.81 in his last five games. He’s really been a victim of poor run support in some of his better starts, but should start collecting wins as the law of averages takes over (the offense can’t go cold for every start).

Perez has pitched 29 innings this season and posted a 1.86 era, 34 Ks, and a .86 whip. The front office is currently pursuing another reliever to share the load with bullpen ace Betancourt, but Perez may be the answer they were looking for (he started the season in AAA). Perez was used primarily as a long reliever until he became a late inning regular in late June. He is currently the Tribe’s go-to pitcher for close games and is arguably the best pitcher in the bullpen right now.

Factor in a rebounding Hafner and the possible production from Gutierrez and Francisco in the outfield and the offense should be even better in the second half.

This is obviously a very simplistic evaluation of the team's performance, but it's encouraging nontheless.

In Other News

I'll be the first to admit that I've been drinking the Kansas City Kool Aid this year, proclaiming them contenders in 2 years, but they have been a team to be recokoned with lately. After taking two of three from Boston, K.C. has moved into a 3rd place tie with Chicago in the AL Central with a 43-54 record. While I hadn't printed it on this site, I had a strong feeling that the Royals would challenge Chicago for 3rd place this year. Given how much I despise Chicago, it would be great to see Buddy Bell and the Royals shove them into the basement.

All According to Plan...

The AL Central has played out as expected so far, with the top three teams wearing each other down. Parity seems to be the key word in the Central this year, with four of the five teams over .500 and the fourth place Tigers only 2 games out of first place. Below are the Central standings as the month of April wraps up.

	W - L	vs Central
Cleveland	13-7	6-2
Chicago	12-9	7-4
Minnesota	13-10	4-6
Detroit	12-10	6-5
Kansas City	7-15	5-8

If the intra-division records above are any indication, this is going to be a highly contested division. On that note, Cleveland's 6-2 record against Chicago and Minnesota is impressive so far. Even the Royals are showing improvement, with 5 wins against division rivals already (they had only 27 all last year). Yes it's only April, but with any luck this trend will continue, allowing Cleveland to seperate itself from the rest of the pack early on.