Gloves Off

Indians! What is your profession? HA-OOH!
-Travis Hafner, after Cleveland clinched the 2007 AL Central crown

This isn't over. Not even close. If those overpaid, pompous, mercenaries over in New York think they're going to take this series back they're wrong.

Cleveland's pitching holds the key and they are primed to let loose in Game 4 (and 5 if need be). Some may argue New York has stolen all the momentum and have Cleveland exactly where they want them. Because it's just that easy isn't it? This isn't the same Tribe that fell apart under the bright lights of their 2005 playoff run. In fact, they've thrived up to this point in the playoffs.

These Cleveland players aren't just going to roll over for the Yankees; they've worked too hard and overcome too much to have it taken from them so easily. All Game 3 accomplished was allow Cleveland's bullpen to recover and give New York a smug false confidence. We have them on the run now, no one can beat the mighty Yankees! Yeah, I don't think so.

The Cobra

Byrd owns a 3.46 career ERA in four regular season starts at Yankee Stadium, so he has had at least some semblance of success pitching in New York. Byrd also has a 3.44 career road ERA compared to a 4.84 home ERA. Westbrook's history against New York was fairly shaky by comparison with a 5.29 career ERA against New York. Hopefully, Byrd can translate his past experience in these situations into something the Tribe can work with in Game 4.

It's also of note that Byrd was the only member of the Angels' pitching staff to beat the red-hot White Sox in the 2005 ALCS. Byrd pitched two games, giving up just 4 ER over 10.2 IP. That's essentially what Cleveland will need out of him in Game 4. The 2005 Sox fielded a very tough offense, so it's reassuring to know Byrd is capable of shutting down a premier offense when it counts.

Byrd's glaring weakness is his vulnerability to the longball. If Byrd can keep his walk rate low, he will go a long way in protecting himself against potential homerun damage. New York's lineup is patient, but if Byrd can locate his pitches, that 1.31 BB/9 rate should at least make a dent in the Yank's OBP.

Byrd only needs to throw 5 or 6 quality innings to put the Tribe in a position to win Game 4. The fully rested bullpen can take it from there.

The Wang

I'm not sure whether or not Joe Torre planned on using Wang on three days rest for Game 4, but he's stuck with him now that Hughes was used to rescue Clemens in Game 3. Since I cited them for Byrd above, it's only fair that I point out Wang's 3.02 home and 4.62 away ERA. I'm not sure how much his ERA splits will help him in this case though, as he was hardly fooling anyone in the Cleveland lineup during Game 1.

Wang went 4.2 innings and gave up 8 ER. The Tribe effectively neutralized his greatest strength, the groundball. Wang has also never pitched on three days rest in his career. That's a lot of question marks surrounding a pitcher who is supposed to be the ace of the staff. Wang's performance is really the key to Game 4, as no one seems to know what it will be. If the Tribe was able to solve Wang once, they should be able to do it again after some counter-adjustments to their original approach.

The Raffys

Wedge may have made some questionable moves in Game 3 (like leaving Westbrook in too long and using Fultz for the 6th inning instead of Lewis), but he was right to save Betancourt and Perez following Damon's game-changing shot off Westbrook. Perez has pitched 4 brilliant innings over Games 1 and 2 and could have used a break. Betancourt only threw an inning in Game 1, but will be fresh for Game 4.

If the game is close and late, look for one of these guys to enter the game in lieu of Borowski, who pitched the final inning tonight. I know Borowski is the official closer, but I think Wedge was doing more than just giving him work in Game 3. I think either Perez or Betancourt will be the go-to guys in a tight situation for the remainder of the series. There's just too much at stake and Perez has proven he won't fold under the pressure of a playoff game.

Jensen Lewis tossed an inning of relief today, but has just two innings in all three games. Lewis should be available for the 5th and 6th, if necessary. He's given up nothing, while striking out 4 in those two innings. Add that to his .69 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 13 September innings and I can confidently say Lewis should (and will) be the first option for middle relief.

If Byrd can go at least five innings and keep the runs at a minimum, the Tribe will have a very strong trio to cover the last four innings. Just as Wang is the key for New York, Byrd getting the game intact to the relief corps is Cleveland's.

Fausto is the Projected Game 5 Starter

Illustration by CarnegieAndOntario at LGT

Need I say more?

ALDS Impressions: Games 1 & 2

Cleveland utilized its entire arsenal to take the first two ALDS games from the Yankees this weekend. Game 1 featured an explosion from the offense, while Game 2 was all about Fausto and Raffy the Lefty. For Cleveland, winning both games before heading to the Bronx Zoo is huge, as it removes the chance of New York clinching at home and shifts some of the pressure away from the Tribe. Hopefully, winning the pivotal second game will allow the offense to loosen up against the lesser pitchers in New York's rotation. Game 3 pits Jake Westbrook against The Firecracker at New York on Sunday. Until then, here are my thoughts on the first two ALDS games:

Game 1: Sabathia vs. Wang

This was kind of a bizarre game, as neither ace performed anywhere near their usual standards. I'm not sure what to make of Sabathia's start. C.C. only gave up 4 hits and three earned runs, but really struggled with his control. Sabathia went just 5 innings on 114 pitches, walking 6 and striking out 5. During the regular season, C.C. had a ridiculous strikeout to walk ratio of 5.64. In Game 1, that ratio was 1.2 K/BB; more than just a regression to the mean against a tough lineup.

One issue I noticed was C.C. had trouble hitting the outside edge of the plate consistently. Bruce Froemming called a consistent strikezone for both teams, but Sabathia's sweeping pitches that normally have hitters whiffing wide over the plate either weren't enticing enough to the disciplined Yanks or weren't falling in for a strike. Sabathia's inability to pound the strikezone (just 54% of his pitches were strikes) caused him to fall behind many hitters early and put him in some tough jams. I have to give C.C. some dap for cleaning up after himself though, as he only gave up one run at a time. His strikeout of Jorge Posada in the fifth with the bases loaded preserved the Tribe's one-run lead, giving his team a shot to win (bottom of the fifth, not withstanding).

So what was wrong with Sabathia? Well, facing the Yankees lineup and their AL best, .366 OBP was bound to inflate Sabathia's walk rate at least a little, but I think the main issue with Sabathia's control was nerves. Some may be quick to dismiss a comparison of the stoic, mature C.C. of 2007 with the young, inexperienced hurler of 2001 (coincidentally, he pitched just slightly better against Seattle as a rookie). It would be perfectly normal for Sabathia to be affected by his nerves in only his second career postseason start. Pressure affects a lot of normally strong pitchers (most recently, Jake Peavy and Tom Glavine) and I think Sabathia was just a victim of poor focus.

My prediction is that C.C. will be locked in for his next start (be it against NY or another team). He's got too much talent and determination to let pressure affect him for very long.

The real story in Game 1 was the Tribe's destruction of Chien Ming Wang. Wang was [insert inappropriate adjective here] removed after giving up 8 ER on 9 H and 4 BB in just 4.2 IP. Kenny Lofton led the attack with 3 hits, a run, and 4 RBI. Victor and Garko combined on 6 H, 5 R, and 4 RBI to round out the offense. Cleveland showed how dangerous their power-laden lineup can be by launching four taters; two off groundball specialist, Wang.

Whatever Wang was doing in Game 1 wasn't fooling the Tribe batters. Cleveland took a steady approach and didn't try and do too much with the ball. By consistently going with the pitch, Cleveland kept Wang out of his element (5 GB-5 FB outs) and was able to put up crooked numbers in the first and fifth innings, chasing New York's ace early.

Bullpen stalwarts Perez, Lewis, and Betancourt combined on 1 hit ball over the final 4 innings.

Game 2: Carmona vs. Pettitte

Intense. That's how I would sum up Game 2 in a single word. Fausto Carmona pitched the game of his life, in October, against the best offense in baseball. Brilliant. Superb. Alucinante. Whatever you want to call it, Carmona's Game 2 stands as one of the greatest games I've ever watched live and ranks among the greatest postseason starts by a Cleveland pitcher. I try not to be too much of a homer on this blog, but anyone who disputes the outright awesomeness of this game is either a Yankee fan or has no appreciation for the sport.

Here is Carmona's stat line from Game 2:

IP	H	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
9	3	1	2	5	1	1.00

Carmona never allowed more than one baserunner in an inning and scattered his three hits and 2 BB over separate innings. Carmona struck out Damon and Jeter twice each. He struck out Rodriguez thrice. Cano and Rodriguez did not advance from the batters box all night (Perez with the assist here). Despite utilizing a wide array of filthy breaking pitches, Fausto threw 67.5% of those 114 pitches for strikes. Carmona also had 18 groundball outs and 2 doubleplays on the night.

Fausto's complete game opus set up a crucial matchup for extra innings. If Carmona had only pitched seven innings, there is a good chance we would have seen Perez and Betancourt during regulation. This means the two best pitchers in the Cleveland bullpen may not have been available beyond the 10th inning. Fausto saving the bullpen gave the Tribe a significant advantage over New York once the game went to extras.

The Yankees didn't have a man in scoring position until Abreu reached on an infield single and stole secondbase in the 9th inning. Fausto Carmona versus Alex Rodriguez. Two of the best players in baseball facing off in a 9th inning, 1-1 tie:

The tempest of Lake Erie gnats was still clouding the field as Mariano Rivera warmed up in the bullpen. Abreu had just reached base on a dribbling, infield single. Carmona's attention was already diverted by the gnats, but now he has to monitor the speedy Abreu at first. Fausto directs his first pitch to the inside of the strikezone, right under Rodriguez's hands.

Rodriguez couldn't get around on Fausto's patented 94 MPH sinker, fouling off the first pitch and swinging over another. Despite a persistent Rodriguez, Fausto and Victor refuse to give in and continue to pound the inside of the plate.

Abreu piles on the drama as he steals second on a ball in the dirt. TBS flashes Rodriguez's April walk-off against the Tribe; a Yankee fan I'm watching the game with predicts a homerun by A-Rod, but I couldn't care less. Rodriguez is starting to get anxious as he chops at a ball heading towards the dirt. The count is loaded as Rodriguez fouls off his fourth pitch of the at-bat.



















The Jacobs Field faithful have risen to their feet long ago. Victor sets up on the inside of the plate, once again. Fausto looks in, winds up and lets it fly. The ball starts over the plate, but makes a sudden break down and away; right where Rodriguez can't get it. The pitch glides into Victor's glove as Rodriguez walks toward the dugout. Beautiful.

Hafner's hit ended the game, but Carmona was really the one who won it, as the offense failed on multiple occasions tonight. It was clear early on that Carmona was going to have to be the one to carry the team tonight, as the offense suffered from a mix of bad luck and poor execution at the plate.

The Tribe's first late scoring opportunity came after Sizemore had led off the 6th inning with a triple. Rookie Asdrubal Cabrera grounded out and Hafner and Martinez struck out swinging to waste the opportunity. Other opportunities included Peralta's one-out double in the 7th and a bases loaded situation in the 8th. I really can't express how frustrating it was to watch these opportunities come and go, but I probably don't have to since a lot of Tribe fans felt the same way.

Wedge tried to compensate for the struggling offense by ordering four sacrifice bunts on the night. They were well-executed bunts, but I'm not sure I agree with the approach. Fortunately, I have more than just bitter hindsight to go on, as AstroCab's sac bunt in the 8th allowed Grady to score on a wild pitch to tie the game.

Raffy Perez pitched his fourth consecutive inning of no-hit, playoff baseball as he matched Mariano Rivera in extra innings, allowing Hafner to take advantage of the Tribe's second bases-loaded situation of the night. Hafner's hit ended the game, but Carmona was really the one who won it, as the offense failed on multiple occasions tonight.

Then of course, there were the bugs. Watching the 8th inning was like watching some kind of divine intervention play out at the Jake. It was as if Nature itself was rooting against the Yankees.

Joba's Kryptonite: Tiny Insects

Now, everyone seems to have an opinion on the bug infestation:

"According to crew chief Bruce Froemming, who spoke to a pool reporter after the game, stopping action because of the bugs never was under consideration." - MLB.com article

"I would have probably pulled us off the field." - Roger Clemens

"The Yankees were acting like there were bullets flying around their heads, not gnats. I mean… this is the big leagues." - Ryan Garko

"It was no different than playing a game in a deluge. Cleveland's pitching was fabulous, but the Yankees must live with knowing that insects helped cause their defeat." - Tom Verducci

"They looked like small Pterodactyls. I don't know. They were there for a while and then they were gone." - Casey Blake

Personally, I think Casey's quote is the best.

I'm really surprised at Tom Verducci, as I normally have a lot of respect for his opinion on baseball matters. He is absolutely wrong in this case. First of all, both teams had to play in identical conditions. It's not like the gnats flew in for half an inning and left; they hung around through the bottom of the 9th, at least.

Second, a "deluge" is not the same as a swarm of gnats. A heavy rain affects the movement of the baseball, which is all that should matter short of something dangerous or physically impeding to the game. Chamberlain and Carmona pitched in the exact same conditions for the 8th. One could handle it, the other couldn't. Simple as that. The bugs weren't even capable of biting anyone, they were just a nuisance. People are acting as if the ump didn't allow time in case one flew into a player's eye (they allowed 10 minutes for bug repellent application, give me a break). Insects should not warrant a delay of game and apparently the crew chief agrees with me on this one.

Third, the idea that such an amazing game will be remembered by most fans as the bug game is absurd. Probably true, but absurd nonetheless. Am I paying way too much attention to this? Of course, but I thought it would be amusing to compare some of the various quotes on the matter. Oh, and Cleveland (not the gnats) won the game, which is also somewhat relevant.

Gark-o-Rama

Ryan Garko has a playoff blog up on the official team website. A lot of the content is typical fluff, but he does offer some interesting insight into pre-game preparation and what some of the players think about during the playoffs. Check it out here.

ALDS Preview: Offense

You may be wondering what the point of discussing New York’s offense is at this point. Trying to compare another team to the current New York offense sounds like an exercise in futility, doesn’t it? If you’re trying to build a case for Cleveland having a better offense, then you’re definitely going nowhere fast. What I would like to do is compare the tools available to each team (power, speed, OBP) and see where each team stands per category. Cleveland may be outclassed overall, but that doesn’t mean they can’t exploit the weaknesses of the opposition to gain an edge. I also looked at how each offense handles certain pitching styles to see if any surprising trends showed up. Below are the season stats for each team:

Player	EqA	SB	HR	OBP	OPS+
G. Sizemore	.290	33	24	.390	127
A. Cabrera	.265	0	3	.354	107
T. Hafner	.285	1	24	.385	123
V. Martinez	.292	0	25	.374	133
R. Garko	.279	0	21	.359	123
J. Peralta	.260	4	21	.341	105
J. Michaels	.243	3	7	.324	92
F. Gutierrez	.262	8	13	.318	108
C. Blake	.260	4	18	.339	106
K. Lofton	.244	2	0	.344	91
T. Nixon	.238	0	3	.342	82
J. Barfield	.204	14	3	.270	58
C. Gomez	.202	0	0	.278	60
K. Shoppach	.257	0	7	.310	106

Player	EqA	SB	HR	OBP	OPS+
J. Damon	.263	27	12	.351	101
D. Jeter	.284	15	12	.452	126
B. Abreu	.278	25	16	.369	119
A. Rodriguez	.339	24	54	.422	183
J. Posada	.322	2	20	.426	160
H. Matsui	.285	4	25	.367	128
J. Giambi	.269	1	14	.356	112
R. Cano	.277	4	19	.353	124
M. Cabrera	.248	13	8	.327	93
S. Duncan	.282	0	7	.329	133
D. Mientkiewicz	.266	0	5	.349	112
J. Molina	.260	0	1	.333	107
W. Betemit	.230	0	4	.278	84

Note: Click EqA and OPS+ for more info. All stats taken from BR and BP.

Yikes. To be honest, I didn’t picture the Tribe getting blown away in nearly every offensive category; that certainly makes my little speech above seem irrelevant. There it is in black and white though.

The only thing Cleveland has going for it (as far as a possible advantage) is the way their power is spread throughout the lineup. Five of their starting nine have at least 20 homeruns, with only two batters not reaching double digit taters. Cleveland’s power distribution has contributed to many of their come-from-behind victories this season and could re-emerge to steal a late playoff win. I take little comfort in this fact as I stare at three guys with a .420+ OBP and a 54 homer cleanup slot for New York.

One surprising part of New York’s offense is how much speed they have at the top. The Yanks have three players with 20+ SB and a fourth with 15. Tribe pitchers are going to have to buckle down and keep an eye on their baserunners; otherwise the speedy top of the Yanks’ lineup will be giving Victor fits all night. Cleveland’s SB totals don’t reflect a speed threat outside of Grady, but the potential for mobile havoc is there. Cabrera, Lofton, and Gutierrez all have base-stealing speed, while Michaels and Barfield offer extra speed off the bench for close and late situations.

As mentioned above, New York’s bread and butter are wearing down pitchers with long at bats and walks. New York is fourth in the AL in pitches per plate appearance (3.89) and walks (637) and first in OBP (.366). Not to be outdone, Cleveland is second in the AL in pitches per plate appearance, sixth in walks (590), and seventh in OBP (.343). With two patient offenses in the box it will be interesting to see how long of a leash starting pitchers get with their pitch counts. If the leash is short (100-110 pitches), the bullpen may end up playing an even bigger role for each team as starters grind out each at-bat. It would make sense to allow your more durable pitchers (think C.C. vs. Byrd) to go the extra mile in the playoffs though, so early bullpen appearances may not be so prevalent.

It would obviously be an uphill battle for Cleveland to out-slug New York in a shootout. With the above lineups intact, New York edges Cleveland in OPS+ 127.3 to 113.7. Just for fun, let’s remove one of the Yanks’ best player (Rodriguez) from the lineup: 120.3 OPS+ to Cleveland’s 113.7. Even without Rodriguez, New York has Cleveland smoked on offense (at least on paper).

I could talk about how the playoffs are a crapshoot (they kinda are) and how the Tribe’s momentum and underdog status could help them break through (arguable), but those aren’t things I would want to hang my hat on going into the playoffs. What we know for sure, is there are just too few holes and too many great hitters on New York for Cleveland to realistically expect to win with an offense-first strategy. What we also know, is that Cleveland is far from a one-dimensional team and boasts two aces to combat New York’s nine-headed monster. So there you have it: the bottom line for the ALDS is pitching versus hitting. That was probably the most mundane ALDS preview around, but it’s pretty blatant, especially after sifting through the stats for anything out of the ordinary.

On the Season Series

I wanted to wrap up my ALDS ramblings with a counter to all the fans and writers who incessantly use the Tribe’s 0-6 season record against New York as the basis for their arguments. Cleveland is a different team now than it was then, especially back in April during the first series. Two games consisted of Westbrook and Sowers getting shelled. Sowers is no longer with the team and Westbrook was possibly injured in April (he missed nearly a month from May-June). Game 3 of the April series saw Carmona surrender 2 ER over 6 IP; again, good enough to win if not for Borowski’s worst single game performance all season. All this happened in the third week of the season.

Fast forward to the September set: Travis Hafner is out of the lineup with an injury, Trot Nixon starts 2 of 3 games, and Barfield is still the starting second baseman. Which of these factors holds true today? Here’s a hint; it rhymes with De Niro. Cleveland was still mired in a horrible offensive slump with .723 OPS in August (season-low), which means they were unable to support the solid starts tossed by Carmona and Westbrook (7 IP 4 ER, each). Plus, where’s C.C. in all of this? Well, he hasn’t faced New York since 2004.

Are people really that quick to dismiss Cleveland in this series? What’s a more accurate assessment, 96 games or 6?

Pronk (.965 OPS in Sept.) is finally back to lead a resurgent offense into the playoffs in support of the Tribe’s outstanding pitching (3.27 ERA in Sept.). The team has gotten a shot in the arm from players like Jensen Lewis and Asdrubal Cabrera. Jake has also been one of the best pitchers in the AL leading up to the playoffs with a 1.90 ERA in August and a respectable 4.14 ERA in September. And again, Sabathia has not even faced New York this season.

The Tribe enters the playoffs with an enthusiasm and confidence that will be tough to overcome when fused with their enormous talent. If you want to keep shoving the season series in my face, go ahead. I’m already looking towards October.

ALDS Preview: Pitching

96 versus 0-6: that’s what most of the shallow analysis surrounding the ALDS seems to stem from. I’ve heard Cleveland referred to as the “other team” multiple times, as if they aren’t even worthy to play the mighty Yanks. Six games do not define a team. It seems like other fans and the media always focus on certain points (especially that season series) when comparing New York and Cleveland, but many are just not represented accurately.

I keep hearing about New York’s overwhelming offense, veteran pitching, playoff experience, and that old Yankee mystique. Is Cleveland really the underdog here? Hometown bias aside, I just don’t buy the Tribe being outmatched here. To try and answer this question, I’ve broken down each team and re-examined aspects of the season series.

Starting Pitching

New York’s calling card this season has been its offense, but the pitching staff should not be overlooked. Fans tend to hype up the playoff experience of New York’s starting rotation, but their true ace, Wang, has seen only three seasons. The Yanks’ trio of Clemens, Pettite, and Mussina has playoff experience to spare, but are not as nearly as dominant as they once were. A rotation with those guys would be downright horrifying…three years ago. Whether or not these guys have enough left in the tank to significantly elevate their game for the postseason (quite possible) remains to be seen, but they are certainly mortal.

I don’t believe it’s been decided yet, but I think Mike Mussina will get the nod over Phil Hughes, so he’s included in the table. I’m basing this partly on the experience of Mussina and on the logic Joe Torre may use in managing his rookie phenom. Expect Hughes to fill in for long relief if Clemens or Mussina can’t make it deep into a game.

What I wanted to know was how the style of New York’s four starters was reflected in their season stats. I pulled some fancier stats this time to try and figure out how each pitcher would be attacking the Tribe. You can get a good sense of how each pitcher operates and where they’ve had success. I’ve also included Cleveland’s rotation as a more familiar benchmark for comparison.

Pitcher	IP	Home ERA	Away ERA	WHIP	GO/FO	K/G	BB/G	HR/G	P/PA
Wang	199.3	2.75	4.91	1.29	2.36	4.9	2.8	.42	3.5
Clemens	99	3.29	5.17	1.31	1.27	6.3	2.9	.83	3.8
Pettitte	210.3	4.17	3.47	1.42	1.50	6.1	2.9	.61	3.7
Mussina	152	4.88	5.48	1.46	1.16	5.4	2.1	.82	3.7
Pitcher	IP	Home ERA	Away ERA	WHIP	GO/FO	K/G	BB/G	HR/G	P/PA
Sabathia	241	3.13	3.32	1.14	1.28	8.3	1.5	.79	3.7
Carmona	215	3.36	2.73	1.20	2.88	6	2.7	.70	3.6
Westbrook	145.7	3.94	4.83	1.40	1.92	5.5	3.4	.81	3.8
Byrd	192.3	5.68	3.51	1.38	.87	4.1	1.3	1.25	3.4

Note: GO/FO = groundout / flyout ratio; P/PA = pitches per plate appearance. All stats taken from BR and THT.

How do the rotations stack up? I was a little surprised at how similar some of these numbers turned out to be. NY tends to walk batters more (2.67/G) than Cleveland (2.25), but this is not necessarily a big advantage if you remember how Byrd’s outings tend to go. Byrd may not walk many, but the number of hits and homeruns he surrenders make his walk totals somewhat deceiving. Cleveland also has more power in their rotation, striking out 5.97 per game, while NY strikes out 5.67 per game. Again, there’s a catch; Carmona and Westbrook strikeout their share of batters, but don’t need a high K rate to be successful. Carmona and Westbrook can stifle bats with the groundball and double-play just as effectively.

I realize data from a large, 162 game sample size may not translate well (if at all) into a condensed, five game series. Despite this, you can’t just ignore the ERA splits. I believe New York’s rotation will fall as Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Mussina, which would nullify the ugly splits for Pettitte and Clemens. As the ace though, Wang could end up pitching in Games 1 and 5 (if necessary), which means his 4.91 road ERA could end up working against him. With Sabathia on the mound and his 3.13 home ERA, this should make for an intriguing match-up.

The thing that really puts Cleveland’s rotation a giant step ahead of New York’s is how their top two pitchers compare. Cleveland’s two aces (Sabathia and Carmona) are significantly better than New York’s (Wang and Clemens) no matter how you split it. It’s kind of obvious, but I believe the potential of facing Sabathia and Carmona four times in a five game series is huge. Granted, Sabathia would be throwing on three days rest in a potential Game 4, but if Cleveland has their backs against the wall such a gamble could be what turns the tide in their favor.

Filling out the rotations, Pettitte and Westbrook are comparable, but Pettitte definitely gets the edge on paper. Byrd wins the stat war with Mussina, but Mussina is an interesting case. Mussina’s problem of late has been consistency; he’ll throw a quality start one week and get burned the next. Considering the Tribe would only see Mussina once, he could be a wild card in that match-up. Not to say Byrd couldn’t pull a quality start out of his hat, but we tend to know what’s coming with Byrd; he’s been consistently average.

Overall, the rotations are a closer match then anticipated, but Cleveland’s 1-2 punch is just too much to handle in a short series.

Bullpen

I wasn’t sure how deep I should go into the bullpens given my limited knowledge of how NY actually manages theirs. What I do know are the questions facing each bullpen going into the playoffs.

How will each team deal with middle relief if a starter falters?

Cleveland has one good and one dominant arm in Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez. Both are capable of going multiple innings in a pinch, with Perez splitting most of his time backing up Betancourt in the 7^th and 8^th innings. I don’t see Perez straying from the last three innings, so look for Lewis or even Fultz to take the 6^th. Lewis essentially earned his playoff roster spot after posting a .69 ERA with 15 K in (*small sample size alert*) 13 IP. Cleveland’s long relief corp rounds out with Aaron Laffey, who should see most of his time in emergency relief where the starter can’t go 6 innings.

New York’s middle relief is a bit murky, but I’d bet money that Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes win the role on the playoff roster. Both are starters by trade and provide a strong safety net for the likes of Clemens and Mussina, neither of which is guaranteed to make it through five innings. Kennedy has just three starts (against sub-.500 teams), while Hughes sports a 2.73 ERA in 5 September starts. Despite the undefined roles of many of New York’s relievers, they have plenty of viable options in middle relief.

How will the kids handle the pressure of the playoffs?

This is the keystone for each bullpen, in my opinion. Raffy Perez and Joba Chamberlain have played crucial roles for their respective teams to this point. Both have experience pitching in tough situations and throw some of the nastiest stuff in either pen. Perez’s experience in these tough games significantly outnumbers Chamberlain’s, but the playoffs are a whole other degree of pressure to some guys. I honestly can’t say how either will react to pitching in the postseason, but it could end up as a decisive pitching match-up for the series.

What will Borowski do?

Save games, of course. Moving on…

That’s all for now, but I’ll check out the offense in Part II of my ALDS preview tomorrow.

Clash of the Mediocre Titans

We've got to get it going and we've got to get it going now.
-Jake Westbrook

The New York series wasn’t exactly the massacre that some fans (Cleveland or otherwise) may lead you to believe. Cause for concern? Yes. Painful? Absolutely. Yet, despite getting absolutely thrashed by the Evil Empire and humiliated at the hands of the local bandwagon fans (forgive them Jobu, they know not what they do) the Tribe is still, still tied for first place in the central division as I write this.

What the hell happened to the AL Central? It went from the toughest division in baseball (on paper) to the NL West circa 2005. Don’t get me wrong, I couldn’t be more grateful that Detroit has sucked as bad as us, but come on. Is anyone going to try and win this division? Should we just give the playoff berth to Philly out of pity and call it a season? Enough already.

The Baseball Gods have lined these two former juggernauts up for 5 meetings over a stretch of 10 days to decide the division. Yes, the division. The Tribe has hit rock bottom after getting kicked around by New York the upcoming Detroit series may make or break the team’s confidence. The Tribe has to snap out of this funk and break free from the back and forth garbage that constitutes a pennant race in this division.

Like I've said before, this team should not even think about winning the wild card. Unless New York goes into a highly unlikely tailspin, Cleveland has a very slim chance at taking the wild card berth. Taking the division crown at this point certainly seems like an easier proposition than battling Seattle, New York, Anaheim, and Boston for the wild card (yes, I was wrong about Seattle and New York earlier in the season, but I see them taking their respective division races down to the wire now).

New York was not a defining series for Cleveland’s regular season; important, but not definitive. Cleveland's season will live or die based on how they play against Detroit. Hopefully the team is able to endure the enormous pressure of these games and finally break through in the standings.

I’m hoping the familiarity with Detroit will make it easier on the players to get locked in and not look so listless. There’s definitely been a rivalry brewing between Cleveland and Detroit the last two years and I hope the leaders in the clubhouse exploit it for all it’s worth.

Pointing Fingers

After suffering though this slump for nearly a month and a half now, I'm having a hard time defending Wedgie or Shelton with much enthusiasm. Just how much of the blame do the manager and hitting coach deserve though? Well, unless you’re a player or an especially privileged member of the press, chances are you have no idea who’s to blame.

Wedge could’ve been berating players left and right during that pitiful New York series. Shelton might be living out of the film room and offering 24 hour, private batting cage sessions for his struggling players. You would hope something along those lines is going on in the Indian’s clubhouse, but I certainly wouldn’t expect (nor want) anybody who knows better to speak out about it. You really want to sink the ship? Have a player spout a vote of no confidence in his manager during a post-game interview.

It's been said many times before, but there really is a limited amount that a hitting coach can help his hitters. Players at this level know what they're doing and it's not like the hitting coach is going to be messing with anyone's mechanics right now. The hitting coach is basically there to remind players of what got them to the bigs and make sure they keep their approach consistent, maybe helping them tweak their approach for a particular situation or pitcher.

Now the secondary role of the hitting coach is to keep his hitters motivated and focused. I'm convinced the Tribe's offensive slump is a mental problem, but I have no evidence that the hitting coach has not been doing his job in that department.

The onus is on the players at this point, there's only so much Shelton can do for these guys. He can lecture the players all he wants, but if they don't execute in the end, none of that matters.

If Shelton is doing his job and doing everything he can in his power to try and get his players focused (there's no direct evidence whether he is or not) then he does not deserve to be fired. He can't baby sit these guys 24/7, at some point, the players have to take some accountability and do their job.

On the other end of the bench, one of Wedge’s primary duties is to keep the players focused, motivated, and ready to go each game. Like I said, nobody knows how fired up Wedge gets behind closed doors, but as far as I can tell, he has the respect of his players. Respect for a manager can be every bit as effective as aggression or intimidation as a source of motivation and focus. Wedge has maintained a similar managerial style for almost five years now, I think the guy knows how to run the team.

Wedge is far from perfect, but it’s amazing how much his ability to lead the team comes into question at times. If he really had that poor of a relationship with his players and staff, would Shapiro have extended him in the middle of this season? I doubt it.

Wedge and Shelton’s body of work suggests that they know what they’re doing. I don't think it's fair to hold them to a double standard where their body of work and history of working with these players is ignored once a bad slump hits. As a fan, there's really no definitive way of knowing how much blame should be placed on the players and how much should be placed on the coaches. For what it's worth, I'm currently leaning towards the players as the worst offenders right now.

Baseball is a cyclic game and this lineup is too talented to count it out just yet. I’m willing to give Wedge and his staff the benefit of the doubt here. Judging by Shapiro’s maneuvers this season (shipping out Lee and Rouse, bringing in Lofton), any dead weight won’t be tolerated this year. If Shelton is really the locus of this prolonged slump, I think he would have been replaced by now. Until then, I think the team should stick to its guns and go with the coaching staff that got the team this far in the first place.

Bottomline: the players need to wake up and start looking ahead at what they need to do, rather than focusing on the past. Cleveland and Detroit have reached a stalemate in the standings thus far and these five games may be the jolt the Tribe needs to start running on all cylinders again.

Offense Fails to Pick Up Carmona

Fausto Carmona made a valiant stand against the Yankees tonight, but his teammates failed to deliver much support. Carmona managed to avoid the knockout punch by a persistent Yankee offense, giving up 4 ER on 8 hits over 7 IP, but suffered his third straight loss.

Facing the hottest offense in baseball, Fausto managed to play to his strengths and keep the ball on the ground most of the night. He kept opposing batters tied up and off balance for much of the night, inducing 17 groundball outs and 3 double plays. Carmona's ability to keep the ball on the ground prevented a big inning from breaking out and provided him with the quick outs he needed to get out of jams and pitch deep into the game (97 pitches over 7 innings). Fausto struck out just two batters, but walked only one (Rodriguez).

Most of Carmona's eight hits were groundballs straight up the middle, with only one going for extra bases (Rodriguez's solo HR). Carmona made his job very difficult by allowing the leadoff runner to reach base five innings in a row, accounting for two of the Yankee's runs.

Jhonny Peralta didn't do Carmona any favors tonight either, stranding 3 baserunners and making two ugly plays on defense. Peralta was directly responsible for one of Fausto's runs when he botched a catch on a Jonny Damon popup in the 3rd inning; Damon eventually came around to score. Peralta also missed secondbase on a potential double play that same inning.

On Hughes

Ok, remember all those crappy, inexperienced pitchers that have been giving the Tribe fits the last two months? Well, the kid they faced tonight happens to be a really good, inexperienced pitcher. Carmona versus Phil Hughes had the potential for an epic pitchers duel and Hughes brought his best to the Jake tonight.

The Tribe's offense never threatened Hughes tonight, but I really can't blame them for trying this time. The Tribe wasn't really swinging at bad pitches or making a lot of stupid decisions at the plate tonight; Hughes' stuff was just that good.

Hughes utilized a deadly combination of high-90's fastballs and sharp curves to freeze the Tribe in their tracks. A big part of the rookie's success tonight was the ability to consistently throw his sharp curveball for a strike. Mix in some other assorted filth and you have a very flat-footed Tribe offense. Still, Fausto hung with Hughes for most of the game by working around some tough-luck singles and working efficiently. Hughes was certainly the better pitcher tonight, but not by much.

Unlucky 13

Carmona has looked like an ace in his last eight starts, but has received little run support in his last five. In three starts from July 2 to July 15, Fausto saw 24 runs in 18.1 IP. In five starts from July 20 to August 10, Fausto received just 6 runs in 37 IP. Carmona has lost his last three starts (including tonight) despite posting a 3.00 ERA over that span. He is currently sitting on a 13-7 record for the season with another tough start coming up against Detroit.

On El Jefe

Despite going 1-4 tonight against New York's emerging ace, Victor Martinez has been doing everything he can the last three games to give his teammates a much needed jolt. After struggling along with his teammates at the plate entering last week's Chicago series, Victor exploded against Mark Buehrle, going 3-4 with a BB and 2 R. In anticipation of a close play at first, Martinez dove head first into the bag to get his first hit of the night.

Think about how nuts that is for a minute. Vic wasn't thinking of anything except giving the offense an opportunity to score. Some people might say Vic sliding (more like flopping) headfirst into the bag like that was selfish and stupid; both valid arguments. However, if I'm a player on the Tribe's bench and I see the team's starting catcher and best offensive player sacrifice his body like that for a single base, it would certainly get my attention (the team lit up Buehrle that night).

I've said before that I don't like citing intangibles, but Martinez's slide is just one of many examples of his leadership this year. Martinez has shouldered the load this season with Pronk struggling. On top of being the best offensive player and dugout leader, Vic has played a significant role in guiding Carmona, Perez, and the rest of the pitching staff to success this season. When he acts, players take notice, and he's doing everything he can right now to get the offense running again.

Laffey Takes a Vacation

After two solid starts for Cleveland, Aaron Laffey was sent back to AAA Buffalo on Friday to make room for utility infielder Chris Gomez. While I was initially surprised to hear the news, it makes a lot of sense for the Tribe right now. The way their rest days are scheduled this month they won't need a fifth starter until August 25. As far as I can tell, they're going to use the extra roster spots to evaluate Gomez and Cabrera to see which one sticks as the new utility guy. Since they practically got Gomez for Monopoly money and have some temporary flexibility with the roster, it's worth a shot.

Gomez is a veteran who has put up some decent numbers as a player off the bench. Gomez should provide an offensive upgrade over Mike Rouse (also sent to Buffalo), but his biggest strength may be the ability to play every infield position. With Gomez and Cabrera coming off the bench, incumbent second baseman Josh Barfield may be second-guessing his job security right about now. Barfield's offense has been terrible this year, but he has exceeded every expectation on defense. Look for Cabrera to start a couple times a week in place of Barfield at second, with Gomez getting a few spot starts at 3rd and SS on rest days.

Finally...

The only thing more pathetic than the Tribe's play on the field tonight was the overwhelming roar coming from the Evil Empire's fans. Funny thing is, a large majority of those "die hard" New York fans are actually native to Ohio. The state has two baseball teams with great histories and extended eras of success, but people up there (excluding those who inherited the Yanks at birth, they're fine) are still converting to the Church of Jeter in droves? What gives? The only thing worse than an actual Yankee fan is having to deal with some chump posing as a Yankee fan. Bandwagon fans like that are just so vile; you're fortunate enough to miss them all year and suddenly they appear over the weekend like a Mongol horde. Their parents should be ashamed of themselves.

Shut Up, Mel

I'm hesitant to watch Sportscenter these days. Anybody who tells you there isn't an East Coast media bias is either lying or roots for the Yanks or the Sox. I’m not saying that Alex Rodriguez doesn’t deserve the coverage or the praise at the moment because he certainly does. What he’s doing is historic and basically just freaking loco. I just don’t need to see it 24/7 while there are plenty of other fine games being played by actual baseball players (there is more than one you know). My point is, showing five yankee games in six days on national television is just disgusting. Oh well, there’s always hockey…oh wait, no there isn’t. Great.

The NHL playoffs are on and all ESPN wants to talk about is count how many times they’ll be wrong about the draft this year. And no Mel Kiper, I don't care if the Houston “didn’t draft Vince Young” Texans are on the clock. No one ever calls that junk correctly, why not just watch? I’ve seen almost as much football analysis published the week before the draft as there was for the freaking Super Bowl.

On a side note, Joe Thomas is officially one of my favorite players entering the league this year. Rather than sitting around waiting for his number to get called in New York he's going fishing with his dad instead; good for him. Since when does baseball take a back seat to a sport that doesn’t even start its season for another four months? More on that another time…

I’m always curious what goes on in the locker room after an epic loss like the one Cleveland suffered in New York (yeah, that one). Do the players just shuffle back to their lockers quietly? Does Blake lock himself in the video room with a pint of Ben & Jerry’s and his Bill Emanski videos? Does Slider throw a chair through the wall? Who knows, but I bet it’d be interesting to listen in.

I don’t know what’s gotten into the Indians lately though, but it looks like the offense is finally starting to shake off the rust. Cleveland (12-7) has won five in a row and six of their last seven after getting their ass kicked in the Bronx. They are currently 6-1 in series so far and currently sit atop the toughest division in baseball. Cleveland has averaged over 6 runs a game during that stretch, including their most impressive win this season against Johan Santana, at Minnesota. The defense is still a major concern, but the pitching has looked pretty sharp as of late. I think the fact that Joe Borowski shares the league lead in saves (8), with a 9.90 ERA pretty much sums up the season so far.

It’s been ugly, but the team is still finding ways to win. It's difficult to say what this precludes at this point; hard to imagine how good this team could be once the offense, defense, and pitching start running in sync.