Acta's Triage

Welcome to Cleveland, Manny Acta.

Only 35 games into his inaugural season as Cleveland’s manager, Acta had two of the three normally reliable players on his roster taken away. With shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera out until at least late July (8-10 weeks was the formal diagnosis, excluding minor league rehab time) and center fielder Grady Sizemore benched with a bum knee that may require surgery (he's soliciting second and third opinions from specialists this week), things are looking grim for the Tribe.

That’s not to say things were going according to plan beforehand, but few teams would be expected to fully recover after the loss of two cornerstone players (especially a team that’s already dug itself a bit of a hole in the standings).

You have to give Acta credit though, he’s maintained a positive attitude throughout, hoping it rubs off on the rest of the team as they try and find their way out of the basement (or at least to the top of the stairs).

"I choose to have a good attitude,” Acta explained, “You have to lead by example. If you come dragging in with your head down, you send the wrong message." It may sound like the usual dose of manager rhetoric (formerly referred to in this space as ‘Wedge Speak’), but the way Acta communicates and projects himself provides a stark contrast with his predecessor.

Acta’s main goal, especially with the younger players, is to hammer home the fundamentals (defense, smart base running, throwing strikes). Parts of his message have already translated to the field (fewer errors being committed), while others aren’t quite there (last in the AL in first-pitch strike percentage). However, I think the reason Acta will ultimately be successful is that the players see the enthusiasm and sincerity in how he approaches his job and it leaves them wanting to meet those expectations. They want to match Acta’s passion for the game and put forth their best effort.

I think Acta’s communication skills (in English or Español) and advanced knowledge of the game will allow him to engage and encourage his players in a way that Eric Wedge could not. Eventually, Wedge’s rigid system broke down under pressure and the team lost faith in his leadership. Acta has yet to be tested in a high stakes season (expectations for 2010 were understandably low), but it will be interesting to see how this team responds to pressure situations under his watch.

For now, Acta is tasked with installing his system and evaluating and developing personnel for the future. I’m confident Cleveland’s new manager has the team on the right track, even if recent trends have been disconcerting (to put it lightly).

The current challenge is to assemble a productive offense around Shin Soo Choo, some veteran spring training invitees, and a bunch of kids not yet accustomed to hitting in the Majors. As daunting as that may sound, I’m of the opinion that the day-to-day batting order doesn’t matter nearly as much as providing the players with a defined role and the appropriate amount of playing time.

Acta has expressed his desire to win, but understands that “we have to develop players too.” The skipper recognizes the value in the remaining three-quarters of the season to further develop a young, largely inexperienced, and not quite cohesive unit into a respectable squad for the second half of 2010 and beyond. So what can we expect as far as playing time, minor league call-ups, and roster management while Cabrera and Sizemore are sidelined?

Jason Donald will be the Tribe’s starting shortstop for the foreseeable future. Donald, acquired from Philadelphia as part of the Cliff Lee package, had zero experience at the major league level before his debut on May 18. Donald had built a strong case for a promotion in Triple-A Columbus this season, compiling a .277/.396/.423 line with 10 doubles, 2 triples, 2 homers, and 10 stolen bases in 165 PA. With Luis Valbuena’s game coming apart at the seams (54 OPS+, 5 errors on the season), Donald was already on the fast track for a promotion.

Valbuena’s performance and the sudden injury to Cabrera paved the way for Donald to be named starter, ready or not. Spring training invitee Mark Grudzielanek had already earned the everyday second baseman’s gig of his own merit, leaving Valbuena in a reduced role as utility infielder.

The veteran Grudzielanek provides a significant upgrade over Valbuena in every aspect of the game, except power (which is irrelevant, since Valbuena’s power stroke has yet to return). Grudz may be a journeyman at this point in his career, but he still has an above-average glove and had a .345 OBP in 2008 (he missed most of 2009 due to a back injury).

Acta’s initial endorsement of Valbuena as the team’s second baseman at the start of the season looks hollow in hindsight. Valbuena already had one foot out the door prior to Donald’s arrival, but the organization isn’t ready to give up on him. Valbuena will continue to see a start or two each week, likely confined to second base, to allow him to work through his funk at the plate. Even if they fall into a slump, Donald and Grudzielanek’s defense will keep them in the lineup.

Andy Marte is due to come off the DL next week, but a lack of extra middle infielders (Peralta will not be playing short, says Acta) on the 25-man roster may see the recently recalled Shelley Duncan (currently occupying Sizemore’s roster spot) get sent down instead of Valbuena. Remember, Marte is out of minor league options.

Trevor Crowe was actually called up to spell Marte, but his fate is now tied to that of Sizemore’s knee. Crowe had been on the coaching staff’s radar after a memorable effort in spring training, only to lose the fourth outfielder gig to Michael Brantley (who appeared in a grand total of 9 games).

Some fans may be wondering why Trevor Crowe got called up instead of Brantley. Crowe’s promotion was initially in response to Andy Marte’s injury, meaning the team wasn’t planning on keeping him up for more than a couple weeks. The organization wanted Brantley (and Donald for that matter) to continue seeing everyday at-bats in Triple-A, so they were passed over. When Crowe caught fire in Cleveland, he gave little reason for the club to demote him even after the prognosis on Sizemore’s knee got worse. Why mess with a good thing?

Personally, I’m glad the team stuck with Crowe. There are too many first-round picks wasting away in Triple-A in this organization. If Crowe has something to offer, the team couldn’t have been handed a better opportunity to find out. Crowe is 26 years old, already has 202 major league PA under his belt, and center field is wide open. Sure he may not be as talented as Brantley, that’s not the point. There are only so many at-bats to go around and a line of young players in need of an extended look. Crowe deserves this opportunity more than Brantley, in my opinion.

Under normal circumstances, Acta views the switch-hitting Crowe as an ideal fourth outfielder, able to provide excellent defense and speed off the bench. Instead, he’s been anointed the leadoff hitter and everyday center fielder. Crowe has responded to the organization’s vote of confidence in a big way, with a slash line of .324/.390/.432 with 12 H, 4 BB, and 3 SB in his first 9 games (41 PA) entering Monday’s series against Chicago. The 26-year-old Crowe is currently outperforming his career line of .276/.354/.407 at Triple-A. Combined with a .355 BABIP, Crowe is probably playing over his head right now. As long as he’s hitting though, that leadoff spot is his.

It’s not like the team has any clear cut leadoff hitters anyway. Grudzielanek? Donald? Choo is far-and-away the best available hitter, but someone has to drive in the runs. Plus, it would be a waste to have Choo’s power batting leadoff. Instead, Acta has tapped Choo to continue his noble “bat Sizemore second” experiment (a brilliant move I’ll continue to defend, if only Sizemore had hit…). Choo’s response? Two taters in three games, so far.

Proposed Cleveland Lineup

Order	Starter (sub)	GS (PA)	wOBA^	ISO	WAR
1	T. Crowe#	8 (41)	.375	.108	0.4
2	S. Choo*	42 (190)	.405	.176	2.1
3	J. Peralta	39 (167)	.323	.160	0.2
4	T. Hafner*	37 (160)	.363	.145	0.7
5	A. Kearns	29 (130)	.383	.183	1.1
6	R. Branyan*	19 (84)	.319	.219	0.3
7	M. Grudzielanek	20 (95)	.283	.000	0.2
8	L. Marson	29 (106)	.247	.042	-0.1
9	J. Donald	6 (23)	.148	.000	-0.2
	(M. LaPorta)	24 (106)	.249	.061	-0.5
	(L. Valbuena*)	25 (102)	.250	.107	-0.4
	(M. Redmond)	13 (49)	.269	.091	-0.2
DL	(A. Marte)	8 (32)	.338	.208	0.1
DL	G. Sizemore*	31 (140)	.255	.078	-0.4
DL	A. Cabrera#	33 (149)	.303	.081	-0.1

*Lefty; #Switch

^League average is roughly .335

Stats courtesy of FanGraphs, current as of 5/24/10

The rest of the lineup that’s been trotted out for the past 9 games has been fairly conventional. Speed at the top, power in the middle, light weights and scrubs at the bottom. The speedy Jason Donald is sort of the “second” leadoff man batting ninth, similar to how Brantley was deployed at the start of the season. Meanwhile, Peralta really shouldn’t be batting lower than fourth now that he’s broken out of his usual April doldrums (this opinion subject to change in 30 days).

The bottom half of the lineup is almost a throw-away with Grudzielanek setting the table for the punch-less LaPorta and Marson. The heart of the order isn’t too bad though, assuming Hafner’s bat continues to come around, Kearns doesn’t become a black hole when the inevitable regression hits (.421 BABIP!), and Branyan does….well, I guess the home runs are nice. I’m pretty comfortable with a lineup starting off with [Hot Hand of the Month], Choo, Peralta, Hafner, Kearns, and Branyan. You know, considering the circumstances. Cleveland’s lineup isn’t about to send Francisco Liriano running for the hills, but it might make Luke Hochevar break a sweat (those complete games are hard work).

Again, the lineup doesn’t really matter much in the long run. Acta might be able to eke out some extra runs by shuffling the batting order and playing the splits, but consistency and playing time are the name of the game for a young ball club trying to get its act together. Not to mention, the makeup of the offense could be in line for a dramatic overhaul once Carlos Santana comes to town. Remember what a difference it made when Victor Martinez went down with an injury in 2008? Ok, maybe you don’t because Kelly Shoppach had a career year and belted 21 homers as a catcher. Still, it’s going to be a big deal when Santana arrives in June.

Quotable Acta

When asked whether it's tough to get reliever Rafael Perez enough work in non-pressure situations:

"Life is tough. Get a helmet."

When asked about the loss of his number 1 and 2 hitters a week later:

“Life is tough, get a double-flap helmet. It provides more protection from both sides.”

Luis and the Lefties

Cleveland has had a tough time finding that “second baseman of the future” ever since they shipped out Brandon Phillips in 2006. Since then, second has been occupied by Josh Barfield and various veteran journeymen. Ronnie Belliard’s tenure, from 2004 until he was traded to St. Louis late in 2006, was the longest of the bunch. Belliard also posted two of the best offensive seasons (106, 107 OPS+) by a Cleveland second baseman since Roberto Alomar in 2001 (150 OPS+), so clearly it’s been a while since the franchise had a capable hitter manning the pivot.

This makes a player like Luis Valbuena all the more intriguing. Valbuena was acquired from Seattle (along with Joe Smith via the Mets) during the 2008 offseason in exchange for Franklin Gutierrez. Even though Cleveland essentially pulled a Brian Giles with the Gutierrez trade (stud outfielder traded so he wouldn’t be blocked by a studlier outfielder at his natural position), the expectations within the organization and amongst the fans (at least those who valued cost-controlled, elite defenders in center field) were already slightly elevated. The fact that the Barfield trade ended up as a huge disappointment also shadowed Valbuena’s arrival.

Despite a rushed development track with Seattle, the 22-year-old Valbuena more than held his own in the upper minors, splitting the 2008 season between Double and Triple-A. After posting a combined .303/.382/.431 line over 523 PA that year, Cleveland promoted him full time to Triple-A, where he continued to thrive at the plate with a .321/.436/.538 line over 95 PA. Valbuena made his debut in Cleveland in May of 2009 and proceeded to take his lumps against major league pitching for the remainder of the season. The Tribe had wanted to determine if he could be a viable starter as the team shifted into rebuilding mode and expressed optimism in the relatively raw Valbuena’s .714 OPS that season.

Valbuena received a vote of confidence from new manager Manny Acta during spring training this offseason when Acta addressed the topic no young position player wants to be associated with:

We're not in the business of developing platoon players at 24 years old. We're going to give him opportunities [against lefties].

From a developmental stand-point, this was the right approach to take with Valbuena. Common sense dictates that he’ll never figure out lefties if he doesn’t get a chance to face them on a regular basis. However, there have been rumblings that Acta may be hedging somewhat on his original promise. Below are the season splits for Valbuena and his backup, Mark Grudzielanek, through May 1:

Valbuena

Split	GS	PA	2B	HR	BB	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
Total	16	65	2	2	9	.308	.327	.635	.216
vs RHP	14	55	2	1	7	.291	.277	.568	.219
vs LHP	2	10	0	1	2	.400	.625	1.025	.200

Grudzielanek

Split	GS	PA	2B	HR	BB	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
Total	7	30	0	0	0	.233	.233	.467	.269
vs RHP	2	9	0	0	0	.222	.222	.444	.250
vs LHP	5	21	0	0	0	.238	.238	.476	.278

It may be a limited sample, but considering five of Grudzielanek’s seven starts have come against LH starting pitchers (all of which were at 2B) while only two of Valbuena’s sixteen have come against lefty starters, there appears to be a trend forming. It’s too early to draw any useful conclusions performance-wise, but it is curious that Valbuena’s 10 PA against lefties this season have been outstanding while Grudzielanek’s contributions in that department have been poor.

Acta may be trying to help Valbuena break out of his early slump by putting him in ideal situations for success and will end the platoon once Valbuena gets his overall numbers up. Acta may also be feeling the pressure of managing an under-performing offense and has opted to temporarily shelve his plan for Valbuena in an effort to get some extra production from second base.

If that’s the case, it’s not working. Grudzielanek has been a dog at the plate so far, even worse than Valbuena’s overall numbers. So why not just give the kid the at-bats he was promised? Acta has the green light to test his young players this season and has suggested he’ll take advantage of that opportunity, making any talk of platoons seem out of place right now.

Is it possible Acta is just ahead of the curve on Valbuena though? After all, the main contradiction between what Acta originally stated and the direction he may be taking now was based on a spring training sound bite, so the anti-platoon policy for second isn’t exactly iron clad. Valbuena’s career minor league splits are a bit discouraging. Below are his career totals and a sample of his time in the upper minors:

Year	Age	Level	Split	AB	HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP	LD%
2008	22	AA	vs RHP	170	8	.374	.524	.898	.326	18.50%
			vs LHP	70	1	.398	.386	.784	.339	22.20%
		AAA	vs RHP	161	2	.395	.391	.786	.348	17.70%
			vs LHP	48	0	.327	.292	.619	.325	16.70%
2009	23	AAA	vs RHP	59	3	.471	.661	1.132	.396	27.50%
			vs LHP	19	0	.304	.158	.462	.214	13.3%
Career		Minors	vs RHP	1289	37	.361	.447	.808	.306	13.9%
			vs LHP	460	5	.319	.311	.630	.290	14.60%
Career		MLB	vs RHP	418	9	.293	.463	.756	.270	20.6%
			vs LHP	58	3	.302	.390	.692	.292	19.40%

Valbuena’s second stint in Double-A in 2007 also happens to be his best overall season in the minors. Considering he put up a better OBP against lefties than righties for the first time since A+ ball accompanied by an elevated BABIP (.339 versus a career .302), this stretch is probably more of an outlier. After being promoted to Triple-A, Valbuena’s numbers against lefties dropped off considerably and haven’t shown much sign of rebounding.

His career minor league splits reinforce this trend with a .630 OPS over 460 AB against lefties compared to a much healthier .808 OPS over 1289 AB against righties. Not only has Valbuena struggled to get on base against southpaws (.319 OBP), but his bat loses most of its pop (.311 SLG).

With that kind of track record, it’s quite possible that Valbuena never figures out how to handle lefties effectively. If he failed to do so against lesser competition throughout his minor league career, the odds don’t look good, even if he were to receive regular at-bats against them in the majors. However, the main factor working in the 24-year-old's favor at the moment is that he was rushed through the minors and is still relatively young for a major league starter, so he could still develop into a serviceable hitter against lefties down the road.

The team should maintain a patient approach with Valbuena. Regardless of what he does against lefties, it’s well established that he has the potential to be an above average hitter versus righties (which is what he’ll be facing most of the time anyway). Also, considering Valbuena’s home is second base, it’s not like he’s expected to be an integral part of the offense, nor is he blocking any superior hitters down on the farm.

A lot of players tend to have difficulty against left handed pitching during their career. For example, fellow lefty Grady Sizemore has a modest career OPS of .705 against left handed pitching, which casts Valbuena's career mark of .630 in the minors in a better light considering the disparity in talent between the two players.

Given how ineffective guys like Sizemore, Peralta, and Hafner have been early in the season, it would seem unfair to single out Valbuena’s slump. If management does decide to shake things up at second base though, Jason Donald is making quite a case for himself in Columbus with 8 doubles, 2 HR, and a .321/.424/.912 line over 84 AB so far. Donald can also play every infield position except first, meaning incumbent utility infielder Grudzielanek should start looking over his shoulder as well.

Coincidentally, Donald owns a career minor league line of .279/.391/.423 against left handed pitching, making him an ideal platoon partner for Valbuena if that’s the direction the team decides to go in. Cleveland would have to move Grudzielanek before promoting Donald, but that appears to be the best option if Grudzielanek fails to produce at the plate.

Having both Valbuena and Donald up gives Manny Acta more options as far as developing his future roster while optimizing his current one. Even if the team “is not in the business of developing 24 year old platoon players,” at least they’d be able to get a look at their two best options at second base in the same season, possibly improving the offense in the process if they end up as a pure platoon.

Hafner's Return Could Propel Offense to Elite Level

Is it possible that Cleveland is a sleeper team in 2009? The Tribe is coming off a forgettable season where the only thing they clinched in the last week of the season was a .500 record. A terrible bullpen, injuries, trades, and on and on (you know the story, I'm not going to dredge through it again). Last season, Cleveland was viewed as a serious World Series contender with every key player from the ALCS championship squad returning. This season, Cleveland has managed to stay under the radar. Even Baseball Prospectus' projections have set the bar low for 2009, awarding Cleveland and their 84-78 record the AL Central by default after handing every other team a losing record.

Many analysts have passed off Cleveland as a flawed team in a weak division, ceding the AL Pennant to one of three teams in the East. The main hang-up for most people seems to be the starting pitching. Personally, I'm liking the possibility of Lee, Carmona, Huff, Laffey, and Westbrook more and more (how long it takes that rotation to shape up is another matter). So what if we didn't re-sign Sabathia? How many Cy Youngs has the rest of the American League won the last two years? It's Carmona's turn to win the CY this year anyway.

As long as the Tribe can get solid innings out of their top three starters, I think the array of young arms will fall into place to fill out the rest of the rotation. While there may be risk in riding the bullpen too heavily, this relief corps has the potential to dominate the final three innings. The depth and strength of the bullpen could go a long way in smoothing the anticipated speed bumps in carrying so many young hurlers in the rotation. Taken as a whole, the team's pitching is shaping up to be good enough to contend. I certainly wouldn't view it as a liability, not with Lee, Carmona, and Wood leading the charge.

If Cleveland can get any kind of quality pitching this season, I feel that they are primed to do much more than just stumble into the playoffs. Cleveland has its flaws and risks, but they also have the tools to cover any potential holes effectively. In this case, the offense may be a secret weapon of sorts.

In 2007, the Tribe posted a team wOBA of .335 and finished 6th in the AL in runs scored with 811. The following year, Cleveland nearly matched this effort with a .334 wOBA and a 6th best 805 runs scored, despite missing the production of a healthy Hafner and Martinez for the entire season. I was surprised to see such a narrow gap in overall offensive production between 2007 when the offense seemed to fire on all cylinders, and 2008 when it felt like the lineup just couldn't be trusted on any given day. Amazingly, Wedge was able to squeeze some sort of production from the 110 different lineups utilized in 2008 (compared to a more stable 81 in 2007). At some point, out of the 166 at-bats given to Dellucci at DH (second only to a limited Hafner), a nasty sophomore slump from Asdrubal, a .753 OPS out of the starting first baseman, and the fact that the backup catcher had more home runs than the third baseman and two primary DH's combined, Cleveland was only six runs off the pace from a year ago.

Cleveland Team Offense: 2006-2008

Year	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	Team RS (AL Rank)	Team RA	Run Diff.
2006	.349	.457	.806	.346	870 (2nd)	782	88
2007	.343	.428	.771	.335	811 (6th)	704	107
2008	.339	.424	.763	.334	805 (6th)	761	44

Obviously nothing's for certain, but I think Cleveland has a shot at cracking the top three in runs scored again. Cleveland didn't have to sign any big names to improve their offense, all they needed was to get healthy and watch the capabilities of their in-house players continue to grow. Peralta had his best season since 2005, finishing second among AL shortstops in wOBA and first in HR (or 4th among third basemen, depending on how you view him). I'm fairly confident that 2008 was no fluke for Peralta and he will continue to be one of the team's best hitters.

A renewed Victor Martinez will anchor the middle of the order once again, relegating Garko's disappointing bat to the bench. If Sizemore is the sparkplug for the offense, Martinez represents the pistons (I'm not very good with analogies). Getting back the captain and team batting champ for three of the past four seasons will obviously provide a huge boost to the offense and give Wedge one less unknown to deal with when structuring the lineup.

This may finally be the year we see Martinez shift into more of a platoon, or even backup role in catching. Shoppach has earned the right to be an everyday starter and with Martinez at first base most of the time, Shoppach will have the opportunity to build on his AL-leading .517 slugging percentage among catchers. A healthy Martinez at first base improves the team on both offense (fewer AB's for Garko, more for Shoppach) and defense (Shoppach is above average behind the dish).

Shin-Soo Choo is a bit of a wild card in that he's never been healthy and had a starting gig at the same time. Choo played out of his mind last season, posting 28 doubles, 14 homers, and an elite .946 OPS over 370 PA. I'm being cautiously optimistic about Choo, since there's a slim chance he'll produce those types of numbers over a full season without a big dose of luck. It's difficult to determine what Choo will actually do as a starter, since his only two Major League stints with at least 150 PA had deceiving BABIP's attached to them. In 2006, Choo had an .812 OPS in 179 PA with a .394 BABIP, while his 2008 BABIP was .373. That's an awfully high occurrence of balls falling in for hits. For comparison, Manny Ramirez had a .373 BABIP to go with his 1.031 OPS last season.

Then again, one thing I've heard multiple times about Choo is how good he is at driving the ball to the gap. It'd be great if I was wrong, but I doubt Choo is capable of posting Manny numbers consistently. With the exception of his SLG, Choo's Major (.291/.377/.493) and Minor (.301/.388/.460) league lines match up nicely. A more reasonable expectation could be for Choo to land somewhere around an .870 OPS (CHONE only has him at .800, but this seems low). Even if he experiences a steep regression, Choo will still be wielding a very strong bat.

Combine the above with Mark DeRosa's OBP in the two-hole, an anticipated rebound from Cabrera, and LaPorta and Brantley in reserve (I'm counting down the days until we cut Dellucci and one of these guys gets the call) and the pieces for a potent offense start to fall into place. Besides Tampa Bay, does any other AL team stand to improve on offense as much as Cleveland? Boston got slightly worse after Manny left, New York added Texiera while the rest of the team continues to age (although they've compensated for this by buying a new pitching staff), and no one in the Central has made any major changes. On paper, Cleveland's offense is flat-out dangerous.

In order to reach their full potential as a truly elite offense, the Tribe will need a come-back season from Travis Hafner. Cleveland was unable to find a suitable replacement for the ailing Hafner last season, finishing with the third worst DH production in the AL. The offense was able to tread water because of unexpected contributions from the likes of Choo and Shoppach, but the lack of an effective DH will only cause more grief for Cleveland. Production from the DH spot has declined steadily right along with the health of Hafner's shoulder.

Cleveland DH Production

Year	HR	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA (Rank)	wRC (Rank)
2006	45	.409	.600	1.009	.418 (1st)	136 (2nd)
2007	25	.384	.453	.837	.359 (5th)	102 (5th)
2008	17	.325	.390	.715	.311 (12th)	72 (12th)

It's no coincidence that the team scored 870 runs (second only to New York's 930) the last time Hafner was truly healthy in 2006. Hafner had a career year in '06, slugging 42 HR with a 179 OPS+. The 2007 season saw a steep decline across the board for Hafner and while he was still effective at driving in runs from the three-hole, the apparent discomfort and lack of pop in Hafner's swing foreshadowed the elbow and shoulder injuries that would plague him throughout 2008.

Even with a sub-par 2007 season compared to his 2005-2006 run, Hafner provided quality production and was still among the top five DH's in the league. Hafner's erratic performance turned out to be more than just a slump though and the pain in his shoulder only grew more pronounced once he returned to action in April 2008. In an interview with Anthony Castrovince, Hafner admitted that "[he'd] go out to have a meal and [the] shoulder would burn just from eating, it would wear [the] shoulder out." Even a simple weight lifting routine became an epic undertaking.

After three months on the disabled list trying to strengthen his right shoulder, Hafner returned to Major League action in September only to have the pain and limited mobility return. Hafner had arthroscopic surgery as soon as the season ended to clean out the shoulder joint. To make sure the effects of the surgery stuck, Hafner took up a new training regimen this offseason. He reportedly lost 10 pounds and developed a leaner upper-body in an effort to boost his bat speed to its former level.

When dealing with an injury this severe (he must have been really hurting if he couldn't even lift a fork without pain), odds are the effects were present well before the start of the 2008 season. Only time will tell how much of Hafner's 2007 season was connected to the lingering effects of his slowly weakening shoulder, but there had to have been some serious issues that were either chalked up to a slump, annual wear and tear, or were misdiagnosed in some way. I'm encouraged by the fact that the main problem turned out to be the shoulder and not the chronic right elbow that has troubled Hafner in the past. Hopefully this is the first and last time Hafner has a problem with the shoulder now that it's been surgically repaired.

I'm not ignoring the fact that Hafner's doctor was unable to point to a specific source for the shoulder issues. However, since I wouldn't know how to interpret a more detailed medical report even if I had one, the best I can do is to trust the team's judgement here. Hafner was well into his 2007 slump before the team offered him a long-term contract extension. Why would Cleveland do that if they knew Hafner had even a hint of something that could render him ineffective down the road? It's one thing to have leverage over a slumping player, it's another to take such a significant risk purely for the sake of said leverage. Given how cautious the franchise is about committing salary and how thorough team physicals supposedly are, it doesn't make any sense for Cleveland to willingly give $57 million to a guy with a potentially chronic, debilitating injury.

I think we've heard the last of Hafner's shoulder issues. Hafner isn't the type of player content with just collecting a paycheck on the DL, he's extremely competitive and seems to take it personally when he can't contribute to the team. How often do you hear of a designated hitter committing to a new offseason conditioning program? The dedication and work ethic are there, but Cleveland had better hope they were correct about Hafner's health when they signed him to that extension. The financial repercussions from a $47 million, lame-duck DH would be severe for a small-market team like Cleveland.

Reports out of Goodyear have Hafner making steady progress with his hitting program. Hafner's surgery rehab schedule caused him to come into Spring Training a week or two behind his teammates, relegating him to the indoor batting cages until he became comfortable swinging a bat again. After passing the test with several successful outings at regular batting practice Hafner may get the green light to play in Friday's exhibition game against Milwaukee. In the meantime, he sparred with Cliff Lee in a simulated game, marking the first time Hafner has faced live pitching at camp.

Tribe skipper Eric Wedge indicated modest expectations for the lefty slugger. Unlike in the past, Hafner won't be expected to lead the offense. It's crucial that the coaching staff keeps Hafner on an even keel (to borrow another Wedgism) so that he doesn't press and start to dig himself a hole early on. Being healthy will go a long way in boosting his confidence, but the biggest obstacle to overcome in getting back on track could actually be Hafner himself if he tries to do too much right away.

If the re-acclimation process goes slowly for Hafner, Cleveland will have plenty of backup until he can adjust. A likely scenario is that Wedge starts Hafner out lower in the order and allows him to work his way up as he (hopefully) continues to get stronger. Plan B would be to have Garko platoon at DH temporarily. Look for Choo and Peralta to pick up the slack in the fourth and fifth spots behind Martinez. Actually, here's what I would expect to be the Opening Day lineup:

1.) Sizemore (L)

2.) DeRosa (R)

3.) Martinez (S)

4.) Choo (L)

5.) Peralta (R)

6.) Hafner (L)

7.) Shoppach (R)

8.) Francisco (R)

9.) Cabrera (S)

I've always been a fan of Wedge's "one through nine" approach to running the offense and I think this mantra will be more prevalent than ever. If all (or even most) goes according to plan, there will be few easy outs from top to bottom. The offense still doesn't have much speed (although Choo, Francisco, and Cabrera at least provide options for the occasional steal, hit & run, etc. beyond just Sizemore), but much of the lineup can still rake the ball. Cleveland finished second in the AL in doubles last year with 339 and has had at least seven players in double-digit homer figures the past two seasons. They could have easily had a second straight year with at least five 20-homer players if Choo and Martinez had played a full season.

The fact that the Tribe's power numbers tend to come from unorthodox positions (like catcher and center field) and are more evenly distributed throughout the lineup will help siphon more pressure away from the former team leader in homers. Doubles and walks should be the basis of Hafner's attack. If he can regain his patience at the plate and make solid contact the home runs should come naturally with that punishing left-handed swing.

Again, perhaps the best news for both Hafner and Cleveland is that he doesn't have to have a monster season for it to be considered a success (yes, I know how much he's getting paid, but I think the team is more concerned with him using this season to fully re-establish himself for the remainder of his contract). Likewise, the team doesn't need to rely on him producing a .300 average with 40 taters to achieve a potent offense. Both Bill James and CHONE project Hafner a bit worse than I expect him to be, but it's possible I'm being overly optimistic in the first place. Based on my imaginary projection system I could see Hafner finishing with 29 HR, 90 BB, .288 AVG, .400 OBP, .490 SLG, and an .890 OPS. Since I basically just estimated that from his 2005 and 2007 seasons off the top of my head, I wouldn't take that prediction to your fantasy draft. Still, I don't think an .890 OPS is out of the question for 2009.

The bottom-line for Hafner this season will be how he fits into the offense as a whole. If he is able to drive in 100 runners and draw 80-100+ walks like he has in the past I would consider that a very strong season coming off a serious injury. Who knows, maybe he'll surprise everyone and this will be the year Pronk returns.

The Hole at DH

Cleveland has made great strides offensively in July, despite a 9-14 record. Over those 23 games the Tribe has posted an .816 OPS and averaged 5.47 runs per game, both season highs for a month. Veterans like Grady Sizemore (1.087 OPS, 7 HR) and Jhonny Peralta (.940 OPS, 22 RBI) are gaining momentum, Kelly Shoppach (1.065 OPS, 6 2B, 6 HR) continues to make a case to start next year, and Asdrubal Cabrera has caught fire after being promoted from Buffalo (.935 OPS in his last 7 games).

The offense finally seems to be coming together, but there has been a persistent hole in the lineup that has yet to be properly addressed.

Out of the 14 AL teams, Cleveland ranks near the bottom in production from the DH spot. A league average DH for 2008 would provide about 15 HR, .336 OBP, .425 SLG and a 101 OPS+. Cleveland’s combination of 10 players splitting time at DH have only managed a line of 8 HR (!), .297 OBP, .344 SLG, and a 71 OPS+ (well below the average major league hitter, let alone a designated hitter).

As of July 30, Sizemore, Francisco, Martinez, Peralta, Michael Aubrey, and Andy Gonzalez had appeared or started at DH in a combined 11 games with most of those appearances due to a player being injured or needing rest. For example, Grady Sizemore has received two starts at DH this month as a way of resting him without taking his bat out of the lineup. The number of at-bats represented by each of those six players is too small to consider statistically meaningful (I included Garko and Choo below only because there was such a big drop-off in PA’s after them, but they’re both very small samples too).

The large majority of starts at DH have gone to Hafner and Dellucci, with Garko and Choo contributing in a number of games as well. Here is how they’ve fared this season starting as DH:

Player	Games	PA	HR	OBP	SLG	OPS+
T. Hafner	43	187	4	.329	.387	80
D. Dellucci	28	113	4	.283	.423	86
R. Garko	9	35	1	.257	.333	57
S. Choo	7	26	0	.308	.364	79

Wow, that’s…pretty bad. Once Travis Hafner was finally shut down with a worn out shoulder after May 25 the team has clearly been struggling to fill his slot in the lineup. I’m not about to let Hafner off the hook here, but like I’ve said before, the situation surrounding how long he was playing with a bum shoulder are cloudy which makes it hard to point fingers about what drove down his performance this year. The bottom line is that even in a down year like 2007, Hafner’s 24 homers and 118 OPS+ would have trumped anything Cleveland has produced at DH without him healthy.

Obviously, compensating for the loss of Hafner and Martinez in the lineup is no easy task, but it’s almost like Manager Eric Wedge could care less who he uses for DH at this point. Since May 25 (55 games), Dellucci has made just five starts in left field with 12 more appearances as a pinch hitter. The rest of the time, Dellucci has been filling in as the team’s full-time DH. If the guy can’t hit and his defense isn’t good enough to even start him in the outfield anymore, why is he still taking up space on the roster?

We get it Wedge, you like to start Dellucci against right handed pitching. Normally this would be a defensible move since the left-handed Dellucci has a career .808 OPS against righties. This doesn’t negate the fact that Dellucci has been terrible for three months now. Dellucci’s season stats have been buoyed by his .871 April OPS, but he has posted OPS’ of .559, .671, and .612 for the past three months and has shown no sign of improvement (.469 OPS the past two weeks). You’d think Wedge would have ditched Dellucci as DH by now and given more at-bats to, well…anybody else.

I realize Dellucci is part of the team’s corps of “veteran players,” but so were Sabathia and Blake, so I don’t see how that exempts someone from a transaction. I think this team is past the point where they need to sign guys for their veteran presence (like Millwood and Nixon). The core guys should have matured enough to handle those duties by now. I’m also aware that Dellucci was injured for much of 2007, but I don’t see how that’s an excuse for his performance considering he’s been healthy for all of this season.

I know the team is out of contention, but if there is a better bat sitting on the bench each night, why not get it in the lineup? The least the team can do is continue to play hard and give the fans something to cheer about; that means putting the best available players in the lineup as much as possible. It’s OK to admit Dellucci is having a bad season by benching him Wedge; really, I won’t hold it against you.

Fortunately, some semblance of sanity has crept into the lineup with Sizemore (3), Francisco (3), Garko (1), and Choo (1) all receiving starts at DH in the past 16 games (July 11-31). That still leaves the other eight games to Dellucci, which is still too many in my opinion. I would like to see a semi-platoon featuring the day’s spare outfielder and Garko continue until Victor comes off the DL in a few weeks (I’ll break down that situation in detail in a later post).

Garko, Francisco, Choo, and Gutierrez figure to be in the team’s future plans and need more Major League experience to improve. If the team hasn’t seen enough of Dellucci in the past two seasons by now, I honestly don’t know what they’re looking for (he may have a year left on his contract, but I would rather see the team eat his salary than have to work around him in the lineup anymore). Plus, if Francisco or Choo is starting at DH it makes more sense to play Gutierrez for his superior defense over Dellucci.

Cleveland has one guarantee and three relative unknowns in the outfield right now and all three of them have a realistic shot at making a positive contribution next season (Francisco is my strongest pick to start next year). Garko and Gutierrez are essentially fighting for their jobs right now. It would benefit the team if they could continue to work with these two players while evaluating them for 2009. This approach is somewhat contradictive to what I said earlier (put the best product on the field), but getting a good grasp of each players’ value heading into the off-season is an extremely valuable commodity in itself.

Allowing struggling players like Garko and Gutz to find a way out of their slumps may also increase their value on the trade market if they catch fire late in the season (just look at what a couple of hot months did for Casey Blake’s value). Cleveland has nothing to lose at present by allowing these four guys to accumulate at-bats and will have an easier time improving the team for the future. Again, I do not expect Dellucci to be a part of this team by the time 2009 rolls around.

This is extended Spring Training, right? I say let the young guys play because that DH spot has no where to go but up.

Shoppach Joins Rare Company

Catcher Kelly Shoppach had a career night against Detroit on Wednesday, going 5-6 with a BB, 3 2B, 2 HR, 4 R, and 3 RBI over 13 innings. Shoppach’s five extra-base hits tied the major league record for most in a game, a feat accomplished just nine times since 1885. The last American League player to do it was Tribe alum Lou Boudreau in 1946.

Carmona Back in Control

The difference between Carmona’s first two starts back from the DL looked like night and day. After getting shelled for 9 ER over 2.1 innings versus Minnesota last week, Carmona had a quality outing against Detroit Thursday. Fausto went 6.1 innings with 3 K, 1 BB, 5 H and 2 ER.

Carmona looked very comfortable on the mound, stayed down in the zone for the most part, and had good movement on his pitches. The most encouraging part of Carmona’s outing was his 11 to 5 ground ball to fly ball outs ratio. Fausto even ran over to first at full speed to assist on a groundball out, showing no discomfort in his hip.

Raising the White Flag

It's pretty obvious. If you're looking for an announcement that we're going to start trading guys, you won't get that until we make our first trade. But I think it's fairly obvious at this point.

-Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro, 7/2/08

The white flag was officially raised by Cleveland this week with 77 games remaining in the season. The decline of this year’s squad has been one long, painful slump after another. If it wasn’t the offense, it was the bullpen. If it wasn’t the bullpen (though it usually was), it was the starting pitching. As the injuries stacked up, it became more and more apparent that this team would not have the talent needed to contend.

There was certainly some risks and elevated expectations going into the 2008 season. Even if the team was completely healthy, they would have had a tough time improving on their ALCS appearance last year. Half the analysts from Bristol to Minneapolis were picking the Indians to make the playoffs again, maybe even go all the way. How much that pressure weighed on the players and the coaching staff, nobody knows except the people in the dugout. After all the seasoning this team has gone through since 2005, I doubt few players gave the pressure of making the playoffs again a second thought. Besides, hanging a season with this many speed bumps on mental hiccups just doesn’t make any sense.

The risk I was referring to is going into a season with out making any major upgrades or additions to the team. This is about the biggest hindsight criticism one can make, but it’s true; there was a degree of risk involved. Shapiro placed a lot of faith in young players like Garko, Gutierrez, and Cabrera to take the next step and they stumbled. Veterans who were charged with carrying left field, third base, and the closer role failed miserably. Even the vaunted core of Sizemore, Martinez, Peralta, and Hafner couldn’t save the season, as the catcher and DH succumbed to injuries for a crucial stretch of the season. The starting pitching was the one bright spot this season, until two of the most consistent starters found themselves on the DL as well.

Despite the hindsight argument that Shapiro failed to bolster the offense as teams like Boston and Detroit got stronger, we’ll never know the true potential of this group of players because two of the three main offensive cogs were never healthy to begin with. There is no way anyone could have predicted such a handicap, thus there was no way to prepare for it in the offseason (how much he knew about Hafner’s shoulder is arguable, but that would be pure speculation here). An offense does not fluctuate like a bullpen; these players had a history of success offensively and Shapiro made a perfectly defensible decision to stick with them.

Obviously this season was disappointing, but when you get down to it anything short of a Word Series win would have been a disappointment in the end. 2007 was one of the greatest seasons I’ve ever experienced as an Indians fan, yet it was all a mere stepping stone toward a long awaited goal. It’s not uncommon for a strong contender to take a step back the season after. Whether players leave, get injured, regress, age, or have the wear of a playoff run catch up to them, it’s extremely difficult to sustain.

Granted, some teams are the exception to this rule (Oakland, New York, Boston, Atlanta are the most recent….the list gets much shorter after that).

I believe Cleveland may have fallen victim to its own success in a way. Were Shapiro and Wedge overconfident because of the team’s past accomplishments?

Maybe.

Did pitchers like Carmona, Westbrook, and Betancourt over-work their arms by throwing so many strenuous innings?

Possibly.

Fluctuations like these are part of the game; you just have to hope your team can stay ahead of the curve.

In a way, it’s beneficial that Cleveland tanked this year. The team’s struggles were a quick (albeit painful) way of weeding out holes in the lineup and who should be shipped out. With any luck and a little less stubbornness from Wedge, the team will finally have a no-risk opportunity to evaluate Andy Marte in the Majors. Cleveland can also convert the value Sabathia may have offered in the playoffs into a young, cornerstone player for 2009 or 2010.

Falling out of contention may be a blessing in disguise if the return for Sabathia fills in one of those offensive holes that have plagued the team lately. There’s no way this team would trade Sabathia if it were still gunning for a playoff spot.

Below is my list of things I’d like to see happen now that Cleveland has raised the white flag and started taking entries for the C.C. Sweepstakes. I’ll go into more detail on a few of these later this week:

1.) Trade Sabathia

The trade winds blowing through Cleveland are practically a hurricane now. The two most convincing reports I’ve heard so far come out of Milwaukee and Los Angeles. Milwaukee appears to be the front runner out of the many teams supposedly scouting Sabathia this month. It sounds like the Tribe may get a stud prospect or two after all. I’m going to wait and see how the rumors play out, but look for a possible announcement from the team next week.

2.) Play Andy Marte for the rest of the season

I don’t care if it’s at DH or third base, Wedge needs to play Marte NOW. If Shapiro has to twist Wedge’s arm to make this happen, that’s just fine with me. Marte has no minor league options left and has accumulated a grand total of 164, 57, and 55 at-bats with Cleveland over the 2006-2008 seasons.

This is not a fair means of evaluation for any player, let alone a 24 year old that was considered one of the best prospects in the game not too long ago. Blake is not the future, but there’s a strong possibility Marte is. If the poor kid doesn’t get called off the bench soon, he may just go all Shawn Chacon on Wedgie.

3.) Get rid of Borowski

Borowski was designated for assignment today, since the team doesn’t have to pretend it needs him closing out games anymore. I appreciate the solid 45 save season he gave us last year, but his time with Cleveland should have ended well before now.

4.) Dump Dellucci

Please?

5.) Trade Casey Blake

Again, I appreciate the past contributions, but we’re not talking about Todd Helton or Ken Griffey here, this is the type of player that you trade when you’re out of contention. Consider Casey’s $6.1 mil expiring contract, age, and the fact that we have Andy Marte rotting on the bench and that’s reason enough to trade him in my opinion.

There are plenty of contending teams that could use a super-utility man like Blake and his value has likely peaked for this season. Blake posted an OPS of .670 and .691 for April and May, respectively. Unless you think he can sustain a .954 OPS on a .420 BAbip beyond the month of June (he can’t) I say trade him while might be of value.

6.) Hold tryouts for the 2009 closer position

I’ve said before that I think Jensen Lewis and Masahide Kobayashi are the strongest contenders for closer next year. This may be a bit tricky though, as both pitchers are having trouble adapting to their recent increase in innings and will need to be handled carefully.

Lewis pitched 81 innings between AA, AAA, and the Majors in 2007. The last time he threw that many innings in a season was 2006 when he was still a starter at Kinston. Kobayashi averaged just 48 IP over the last three years in the shortened, 144 game Pro Yakyu season. Kobayashi has already logged 41 innings for Cleveland so far.

7.) Give Hafner and Martinez as much time as they need to heal

It's pretty much a lock that we won't see these two suit up again until they're 100% healthy. As I've said before, I think having Hafner sit out this season to fix his weakened shoulder and any holes in his swing will greatly benefit the team in the long run. Ditto for Martinez, whose choice to play through intense pain was admirable, but it's time to get that elbow permanently healthy.

Projecting an Injured Offense

Cleveland baseball is once again in the news as trade rumors swirl around C.C. Sabathia. The pace has picked up since Cleveland is struggling to hold its head above water. The Tribe has fallen to last place in the AL Central, 8.5 games behind Chicago. I’ll be the first to admit that I sold Chicago well short earlier in the season, but it looks like they’ll be hanging around until the end.

Chicago’s pitching staff has been carrying the team with a 3.41 team ERA, second best in the AL. The biggest difference between the Sox and the Tribe is that Chicago boasts a power laden lineup of relatively healthy veterans. Manager Ozzie Guillen snapped his offense out of an early funk and it’s paid off in the win column. Chicago ranks first in homeruns (103) and run differential (1.26), and fourth in runs scored (385) in the AL.

To make matters worse, Detroit has finally started to show signs of life offensively. Detroit’s been averaging 4.95 runs per game in June amassing a 15-8 record. Minnesota has proven to be a wild card in the Central, winning 10 in a row and trailing Chicago by just a half game. The Twins have quietly scored the third most runs in the AL (388), despite a reputation for anemic offense in recent years.

Minnesota is a complete surprise to me, but they are only playing three games over their Pythagorean record right now, so they could end up being a major spoiler. Cleveland is four games under their Pythag, which translates to a 40-39 record. The only other team playing under their Pythag is Chicago and they’re in first place.

With the Indians now chasing three contenders for the Division Crown, the rumor mill has only sped up. At what point can you stick a fork in Cleveland? It’s been well publicized that the Central is more balanced this year and even an 8 game lead is vulnerable with 82 games remaining (just ask the Twins). On the other hand, Cleveland has been severely depleted by injuries.

By trading Sabathia, the front office would be conceding the season and preparing for 2009. There have already been some excellent discussions of Sabathia’s value in a possible trade at LGT and The Diatribe, so I won’t be revisiting that topic. Instead, I’d like to get a better idea of what this lineup is capable of without Martinez and Hafner for an extended period.

Can this team realistically contend with the players they have now or is this as good as it gets offensively?

Player	Procedure	Rehab Time	Possible Return Dates
V. Martinez	Removal of bone chips in right (throwing) elbow	6 - 8 weeks	July 26 - August 9
T. Hafner	Muscle strengthening program for rotator cuff and right shoulder	4 - 6 weeks (rough estimate)	July 17 - July 31 (rough estimate)
J. Barfield	Surgery on left, middle finger ligament	6 - 8 weeks	July 29 - August 12

Victor Martinez is by far the biggest loss to the lineup and will probably be the last to return. The wait should be worth it though as Martinez will be playing pain free for the first time all season. Martinez described his limitations in a recent interview with Castrovince:

When I really wanted to put something on a swing, I wasn't able. Every time I tried to get extension, I felt a sharp pain in my elbow. Man, it was tough. It's tough to play like that.

The amazing part is that despite being hampered by severe pain and limited mobility in his throwing elbow, Martinez still threw out 39% of all base stealers and hit .278. Martinez was also nagged by a sore hamstring, which will have ample time to heal. In other words, all those concerns about Victor losing his power (0 HR this year) and suffering from wear behind the plate can be thrown out the window. I think Martinez will explode out of the gate when he finally gets back.

The tricky part is making up the difference while the teams most consistent hitter recovers from surgery. According to the Cleveland Clinic’s database:

Recovery varies from one week to several months, depending on the extent of the surgery. Most patients can return to heavy work and sports within three to six weeks of surgery if the procedure is minor. However, three to six months is often required for complete recovery.

A best case scenario has Victor starting as DH or at first base if Hafner isn’t back yet. It’s unlikely that Wedge would use Victor behind the plate until his elbow is close to 100%. Otherwise, base runners will be constantly testing his throwing arm.

I’d like to provide a similar take on Hafner, but it’s difficult to say at what point he was truly healthy this season, if at all. How far back has his shoulder bothered him to the point of being a handicap on his swing? The outlook did not sound optimistic and Hafner is currently behind in his strength training program. The latest report says Hafner “has improved the strength in his injured right shoulder 15 percent since his last assessment two weeks ago, but it still remains just 45-50 percent as strong as his left shoulder."

Heading into 2008, Cleveland’s offense was really built around Sizemore, Martinez, and Hafner. I’m guessing the Front Office is betting (for or against, I don’t know) on Hafner making a full recovery and becoming a force on offense again. A reasonable expectation could be Hafner circa-2007 (.837 OPS, 24 HR) with a gradual return to form somewhere between his 2006 (1.097 OPS, 42 HR) and 2007 numbers. Again, it will be tough to gauge just how much Hafner’s weakened shoulder contributed to his steep decline, so it’s really anybody’s guess how he will respond in-game until he’s healthy again.

With a four year contract extension about to kick in and a healthy shoulder, Hafner will be out of excuses upon his return. It’s about time Pronk showed his face again and he may have to if the offense in its current state will ever truly get back on track.

Barfield’s turn of bad luck took him out of the lineup before he could even make an impression, so there’s not much to say on him. Barfield posted a .297 OBP and .382 SLG over 259 AB in AAA Buffalo this year, so it’s a safe bet he wouldn’t have outperformed Jamey Carroll. Cleveland never planned on having much offense come out of second base anyway, so the choice between Barfield and Carroll may have ended up as a semi-platoon. It would have been nice to test Barfield’s progress, but it would have been a bit of a luxury considering how desperate the team is for offense.

Sources and Assumptions

I made a few key assumptions in compiling and analyzing the stats below. First, I created a baseline using the 2008 CHONE projections for each player (courtesy of Sean Smith’s blog). I debated whether the more useful data here would be career stats or projected stats for 2008. I decided that career numbers for veteran players (Hafner, Dellucci) would be skewed by far removed seasons (like a career year or rookie season) as much as a projection system might make some poor assumptions for a rookie (like Francisco).

In this case, I’ll be comparing the 2008 projections with the 2008 actual stats. Then, I’ll try a few combinations of under-performing or missing players to see how it effects the overall offensive production. It’s worth noting that I was limited to traditional stats for the comparison due to the inclusion of the projections. I only included players who have seen a substantial amount of action and are still available, so that eliminates Jason Michaels (58 AB) and Barfield (injured, 6 AB). Also, I chose CHONE because I’m notoriously cheap and don’t have access to this year’s PECOTA projections, in case you were wondering.

It was difficult to compile a true team OPS, since I don’t have a big database of the entire team (complete with hits, walks, and all the stuff that goes into calculating OBP and SLG) that I can add or subtract players from (like pitchers). Since the main thing I wanted was the concrete difference between an actual and optimized lineup, I took the averages of each players OPS and measured the differences between each lineup. This provides a rougher analysis, but gets the job done.

All stats were taken from FanGraphs and are current as of June 28.

The Stats

2008 CHONE Projections

Player	AB	HR	HR/AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
T. Hafner	499	29	0.06	.279	.402	.515	.917
G. Sizemore	602	23	0.04	.287	.387	.488	.876
V. Martinez	539	20	0.04	.286	.370	.462	.832
R. Garko	505	19	0.04	.267	.347	.440	.787
J. Peralta	544	19	0.03	.270	.347	.438	.785
C. Blake	514	19	0.04	.255	.330	.428	.758
D. Dellucci	274	10	0.04	.237	.332	.409	.741
B. Francisco	467	13	0.03	.261	.318	.413	.731
A. Marte	464	16	0.03	.246	.311	.414	.725
F. Gutierrez	441	12	0.03	.259	.317	.404	.721
S. Choo	474	9	0.02	.259	.335	.382	.717
A. Cabrera	527	7	0.01	.258	.322	.370	.692
K. Shoppach	253	10	0.04	.225	.295	.395	.690
J. Carroll	373	3	0.01	.241	.326	.314	.640
Average:			0.03	.259	.337	.419	.756

Actual 2008 Season Stats as of June 28

Player	AB	HR	HR/AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
G. Sizemore	301	17	0.06	.262	.368	.505	.873
S. Choo	59	2	0.03	.271	.392	.475	.867
B. Francisco	179	5	0.03	.291	.347	.458	.805
C. Blake	246	7	0.03	.268	.339	.431	.770
K. Shoppach	122	5	0.04	.246	.319	.443	.762
J. Carroll	157	0	0.00	.293	.378	.369	.747
J. Peralta	279	11	0.04	.244	.293	.427	.720
D. Dellucci	183	7	0.04	.219	.304	.388	.692
R. Garko	249	6	0.02	.249	.333	.357	.690
T. Hafner	157	4	0.03	.217	.326	.350	.676
V. Martinez	198	0	0.00	.278	.332	.333	.665
F. Gutierrez	189	3	0.02	.233	.282	.344	.626
A. Cabrera	158	1	0.01	.184	.282	.247	.529
A. Marte	51	0	0.00	.137	.185	.157	.342
Average:			0.02	.242	.319	.377	.696

It's no surprise that Sizemore is leading the way on offense, but to see Choo and Francisco sporting the second and third best OPS on the team (by a sizable margin) was unexpected. Choo has responded well to the Majors since coming back from Tommy John surgery. Choo had a .846 OPS in 146 AB in 2006, so his current production is certainly within his means. Choo is a much needed addition to right field, as Gutierrez has been a disappointment so far (.430 OPS in June).

Another unexpected savior of the offense has been Ben Francisco. CHONE projected him with a modest rookie season with 13 HR, a .318 OBP, and a .413 SLG, but Ben is having a breakout season. While he's not blowing the doors off, Ben has made a smooth transition from his MVP season in Buffalo with 5 HR and a .291, .347, .458 line.

The production from Choo, Francisco, and Carroll (.856 OPS) this month is largely negated by ongoing slumps from guys like Peralta (.637 OPS) and Garko (.660 OPS), who were supposed to be primary contributors this season.

Difference Between Actual and CHONE Averages

Player	HR/AB	BA	OPS
T. Hafner	-0.03	-0.062	-0.241
G. Sizemore	0.02	-0.025	-0.003
V. Martinez	-0.04	-0.008	-0.167
R. Garko	-0.01	-0.018	-0.097
J. Peralta	0.00	-0.026	-0.065
C. Blake	-0.01	0.013	0.012
D. Dellucci	0.00	-0.018	-0.049
B. Francisco	0.00	0.03	0.074
A. Marte	-0.03	-0.109	-0.383
F. Gutierrez	-0.01	-0.026	-0.095
S. Choo	0.01	0.012	0.150
A. Cabrera	-0.01	-0.074	-0.163
K. Shoppach	0.00	0.021	0.072
J. Carroll	-0.01	0.052	0.107
Total Difference:	-0.11	-0.238	-0.848

This table just highlights the number of players who are currently underachieving, according to their anticipated production for 2008.

The main question is, what can we realistically expect from this group of players for the long haul? There's a very real possibility that Hafner and/or Martinez will not return in time to make an impact on the season. Even if they do, they may not be fully effective at the plate for some time.

Below are a few scenarios based on the actual and projected stats:

Optimized Lineup Using Available Players

Player	AB	HR	HR/AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
G. Sizemore	602	23	0.04	.287	.387	.488	.876
S. Choo*	59	2	0.03	.271	.392	.475	.867
B. Francisco*	179	5	0.03	.291	.347	.458	.805
R. Garko	505	19	0.04	.267	.347	.440	.787
J. Peralta	544	19	0.03	.270	.347	.438	.785
C. Blake*	246	7	0.03	.268	.339	.431	.770
K. Shoppach*	122	5	0.04	.246	.319	.443	.762
J. Carroll*	157	0	0.00	.293	.378	.369	.747
D. Dellucci	274	10	0.04	.237	.332	.409	.741
A. Marte	464	16	0.03	.246	.311	.414	.725
F. Gutierrez	441	12	0.03	.259	.317	.404	.721
Average:			0.03	.266	.346	.433	.779

This table lists the current stats of players who are significantly outperforming their CHONE projections, as indicated by an asterisk. If you combine these overachievers with the expected (CHONE) numbers for the rest of the current roster (minus Martinez and Hafner) you end up with a pretty potent offense. This "optimized" lineup has a difference of .083 OPS points compared to the actual lineup listed at the top. Again, this is a fairly unrealistic lineup as long-slumping players would have to break out in the second half in addition to some hot hitting from Francisco and company.

Actual Stats Plus Hafner and Martinez CHONE Projections

Player	AB	HR	HR/AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
T. Hafner*	499	29	0.06	.279	.402	.515	.917
G. Sizemore	301	17	0.06	.262	.368	.505	.873
S. Choo	59	2	0.03	.271	.392	.475	.867
V. Martinez*	539	20	0.04	.286	.370	.462	.832
B. Francisco	179	5	0.03	.291	.347	.458	.805
C. Blake	246	7	0.03	.268	.339	.431	.770
K. Shoppach	122	5	0.04	.246	.319	.443	.762
J. Carroll	157	0	0.00	.293	.378	.369	.747
J. Peralta	279	11	0.04	.244	.293	.427	.720
D. Dellucci	183	7	0.04	.219	.304	.388	.692
R. Garko	249	6	0.02	.249	.333	.357	.690
T. Hafner	157	4	0.03	.217	.326	.350	.676
V. Martinez	198	0	0.00	.278	.332	.333	.665
F. Gutierrez	189	3	0.02	.233	.282	.344	.626
A. Marte	51	0	0.00	.137	.185	.157	.342
Average:			0.03	.242	.331	.400	.731

The second scenario takes the actual stats, but inserts the 2008 CHONE projections for Martinez and Hafner. There are two obvious issues here. First, I seriously doubt Hafner posts a .917 OPS in the second half. Martinez's numbers are more realistic and I'm confident he will hit the ground running when healthy. The second issue is just how bad the rest of the lineup is in comparison. Even with some overly optimistic numbers from the two DL players, the average OPS only increases by .035 points.

Keeping in mind that this .731 OPS is very rough due to the limitations discussed earlier, let's compare it to the other AL teams:

Team	R / G	OPS	BA / RISP
Texas	5.51	.803	.274
Boston	5.01	.803	.264
Detroit	4.83	.768	.270
Minnesota	4.83	.722	.314
Chicago	4.78	.771	.286
New York	4.69	.773	.252
Tampa	4.66	.753	.267
Oakland	4.51	.706	.281
Cleveland	4.44	.708	.268
Baltimore	4.42	.744	.270
Anaheim	4.29	.708	.279
Toronto	4.14	.725	.243

While a .731 OPS would be a significant upgrade over the current .708 OPS for Cleveland, it really doesn't guarantee much in terms of overall run production. Cleveland would move up in the offensive rankings, but would still fail to crack the top six and would likely struggle to win games without some insane pitching (like Anaheim).

Since we're dealing with an average, removing the biggest outlier (Marte's .342 OPS) should tighten up the team OPS a bit. Without Marte's stats, the average OPS shoots up to .760. Even a .760 OPS is middle of the pack for the teams listed above, but would be a massive improvement on the current .708. For comparison, the team OPS in 2007 was .771.

One trend I wasn't expecting was the loose correlation between team OPS and runs scored. I added BA/RISP to try and account for this. Cleveland has one of the worst team OPS', but have been fairly efficient in driving in the few baserunners they have.

My conclusion is that even with a healthy and productive Martinez and Hafner, the Tribe's offense would still be in trouble. A lot of things will have to fall into place for this team to even hang with the top contenders. An ineffective bullpen (4.78 season ERA) and the loss of Carmona and Westbrook make relying on the pitching staff to win games a risky proposition.