Cavs Look to Defense for Help

The Cavaliers may be struggling, but at least they know where their faults lie. Coach Brown’s approach last season focused on defense and turned out to be the Cavs’ calling card en-route to a second 50 win season. The Cavs’ seemed to have forgotten what made them so tough to beat though, slipping to the middle of the pack in many defensive categories. In Saturday's Plain Dealer, Brown admitted his coaching strategy had changed going into the preseason:

I came into training camp talking offense. I felt we understood defense and that we had the technical stuff down and we just needed to be more efficient offensively.

Through 31 games, Cleveland is just 14-17, sharing the 9th spot in the East with Philly. With all the discussion on the Cavs’ neglected defense, I expected their stats to be in decline. Rebounds, blocks, and steals are all about the same, but the bottom-line is how many points are surrendered. Cleveland is giving up 6.3 more points per game while teams are shooting 46% against them. Cleveland’s stats from ’07-’08 are average compared to the rest of the league. Below are Cleveland’s defensive stats from the last two seasons:

Year Games Win Pct. Opp. PPG Opp. FG% RPG BPG TO SPG '06-'07 82 .610 92.9 44.7 43.5 4.3 13.7 7.6 '07-'08 31 .452 99.2 46.0 43.5 4.4 15.1 7.3

That’s a huge difference on defense and has a lot to do with the Cavs poor season so far.

Cleveland has shown encouraging signs on defense lately. In their last five games, the Cavs have gone 3-2 (don’t nitpick, that’s above .500) and held the opposition to 90 points or less in four of those games. They’ve been turning the ball over less and played solid defense against the Mavericks and the surging Lakers. It’s a small sample size, but still counts as a step in the right direction for a team that seems to have lost its identity. Below are the Cavs’ defensive results from their last five games:

Opponent Result Opp. Pts Opp. FG% TO Differential* L.A. W 90 45 +3 Golden State L 105 52.1 +5 Miami W 82 43.1 +5 Dallas W 81 36.5 +1 New Orleans L 86 41.9 -5

*(Opp. - Cle)

Cleveland isn’t quite in a groove yet (see their ugly loss to New Orleans), but they are playing some of their best defense of the season and getting positive results. According to Coach Brown:

It's encouraging to see us win the right way. I've emphasized that end of the floor [defense] more and the guys have embraced it. I've done this with more drills in practice and showing more clips of us defending the right way and not the right way. The guys [now] understand what we have to do.

Hopefully the renewed approach will help smooth over those 2-point nights from Larry Hughes and diffuse any big runs from the other team with LeBron on the bench. The offense may have its warts, but that’s all the more reason to emphasize stout defensive play.

Another contributor to the Cavs' upswing is health. When was the last time Cleveland’s personnel were healthy and accounted for this season? Between the early holdouts, depleted bench, and LeBron’s finger, Cleveland’s projected starting five has not had a ton of opportunities to play together. The bench is still among the NBA’s worst, but fortunately for the Cavs all their key players are coming together as a team now.

On the Browns

This was a rough way to end the season. Brown’s fans essentially got burned twice as they suffered through last week’s game against the Bungles and Sunday’s debacle in Indy. The Colts had every right to blow their final game; it had no impact on them, win or lose. The worst part is that Tennessee was horrible against the Colt’s reserve corps. I bet Indy could have won handily if they had two or three more series with their starting offense in. If Dungy had put Manning back in and he got injured it would have been incredibly bad for Dungy (where else can you get this type of hard-hitting analysis?). So despite the big middle finger Tony Dungy gave Cleveland as he benched Peyton Manning early in the game, you can’t truly fault him. Cleveland missed their boat in Cincy when they coughed up a completely winnable game. Simple as that.

The Brown’s deserved to be in the playoffs, but I think they’ll have a better chance to go deep into the playoffs with the experience they picked up this season. Just as long as Pittsburgh gets destroyed by Jacksonville, it won’t feel so bad.

On the other hand, Cleveland had a great season. Edwards and Anderson emerged as stars, Jamal Lewis resurrected his career in orange and brown, no one got fired (except Frye), Chudzinski had an outstanding first year as offensive coordinator, the O-line is finally fixed, and a downtrodden franchise finally earned back some of the respect it used to command. Just to put it in perspective:

2006: 4-12

2007: 10-6

I always feel a bit awkward talking about the Browns, since I haven’t been a diehard like most of the fans, but I think the fans have plenty to be proud of this year. I’m still not used to all the positive coverage the national media outlets have been sending Cleveland’s way, so apparently they’ve been turning some heads. This season is just a building block too; these guys are only going to get better as the talent matures. When was the last time fans could truly look forward to football season without that feeling of dread in the back of their minds? Just wait ‘til next year…

Gloves Off

Indians! What is your profession? HA-OOH!
-Travis Hafner, after Cleveland clinched the 2007 AL Central crown

This isn't over. Not even close. If those overpaid, pompous, mercenaries over in New York think they're going to take this series back they're wrong.

Cleveland's pitching holds the key and they are primed to let loose in Game 4 (and 5 if need be). Some may argue New York has stolen all the momentum and have Cleveland exactly where they want them. Because it's just that easy isn't it? This isn't the same Tribe that fell apart under the bright lights of their 2005 playoff run. In fact, they've thrived up to this point in the playoffs.

These Cleveland players aren't just going to roll over for the Yankees; they've worked too hard and overcome too much to have it taken from them so easily. All Game 3 accomplished was allow Cleveland's bullpen to recover and give New York a smug false confidence. We have them on the run now, no one can beat the mighty Yankees! Yeah, I don't think so.

The Cobra

Byrd owns a 3.46 career ERA in four regular season starts at Yankee Stadium, so he has had at least some semblance of success pitching in New York. Byrd also has a 3.44 career road ERA compared to a 4.84 home ERA. Westbrook's history against New York was fairly shaky by comparison with a 5.29 career ERA against New York. Hopefully, Byrd can translate his past experience in these situations into something the Tribe can work with in Game 4.

It's also of note that Byrd was the only member of the Angels' pitching staff to beat the red-hot White Sox in the 2005 ALCS. Byrd pitched two games, giving up just 4 ER over 10.2 IP. That's essentially what Cleveland will need out of him in Game 4. The 2005 Sox fielded a very tough offense, so it's reassuring to know Byrd is capable of shutting down a premier offense when it counts.

Byrd's glaring weakness is his vulnerability to the longball. If Byrd can keep his walk rate low, he will go a long way in protecting himself against potential homerun damage. New York's lineup is patient, but if Byrd can locate his pitches, that 1.31 BB/9 rate should at least make a dent in the Yank's OBP.

Byrd only needs to throw 5 or 6 quality innings to put the Tribe in a position to win Game 4. The fully rested bullpen can take it from there.

The Wang

I'm not sure whether or not Joe Torre planned on using Wang on three days rest for Game 4, but he's stuck with him now that Hughes was used to rescue Clemens in Game 3. Since I cited them for Byrd above, it's only fair that I point out Wang's 3.02 home and 4.62 away ERA. I'm not sure how much his ERA splits will help him in this case though, as he was hardly fooling anyone in the Cleveland lineup during Game 1.

Wang went 4.2 innings and gave up 8 ER. The Tribe effectively neutralized his greatest strength, the groundball. Wang has also never pitched on three days rest in his career. That's a lot of question marks surrounding a pitcher who is supposed to be the ace of the staff. Wang's performance is really the key to Game 4, as no one seems to know what it will be. If the Tribe was able to solve Wang once, they should be able to do it again after some counter-adjustments to their original approach.

The Raffys

Wedge may have made some questionable moves in Game 3 (like leaving Westbrook in too long and using Fultz for the 6th inning instead of Lewis), but he was right to save Betancourt and Perez following Damon's game-changing shot off Westbrook. Perez has pitched 4 brilliant innings over Games 1 and 2 and could have used a break. Betancourt only threw an inning in Game 1, but will be fresh for Game 4.

If the game is close and late, look for one of these guys to enter the game in lieu of Borowski, who pitched the final inning tonight. I know Borowski is the official closer, but I think Wedge was doing more than just giving him work in Game 3. I think either Perez or Betancourt will be the go-to guys in a tight situation for the remainder of the series. There's just too much at stake and Perez has proven he won't fold under the pressure of a playoff game.

Jensen Lewis tossed an inning of relief today, but has just two innings in all three games. Lewis should be available for the 5th and 6th, if necessary. He's given up nothing, while striking out 4 in those two innings. Add that to his .69 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 13 September innings and I can confidently say Lewis should (and will) be the first option for middle relief.

If Byrd can go at least five innings and keep the runs at a minimum, the Tribe will have a very strong trio to cover the last four innings. Just as Wang is the key for New York, Byrd getting the game intact to the relief corps is Cleveland's.

Fausto is the Projected Game 5 Starter

Illustration by CarnegieAndOntario at LGT

Need I say more?

ALDS Impressions: Games 1 & 2

Cleveland utilized its entire arsenal to take the first two ALDS games from the Yankees this weekend. Game 1 featured an explosion from the offense, while Game 2 was all about Fausto and Raffy the Lefty. For Cleveland, winning both games before heading to the Bronx Zoo is huge, as it removes the chance of New York clinching at home and shifts some of the pressure away from the Tribe. Hopefully, winning the pivotal second game will allow the offense to loosen up against the lesser pitchers in New York's rotation. Game 3 pits Jake Westbrook against The Firecracker at New York on Sunday. Until then, here are my thoughts on the first two ALDS games:

Game 1: Sabathia vs. Wang

This was kind of a bizarre game, as neither ace performed anywhere near their usual standards. I'm not sure what to make of Sabathia's start. C.C. only gave up 4 hits and three earned runs, but really struggled with his control. Sabathia went just 5 innings on 114 pitches, walking 6 and striking out 5. During the regular season, C.C. had a ridiculous strikeout to walk ratio of 5.64. In Game 1, that ratio was 1.2 K/BB; more than just a regression to the mean against a tough lineup.

One issue I noticed was C.C. had trouble hitting the outside edge of the plate consistently. Bruce Froemming called a consistent strikezone for both teams, but Sabathia's sweeping pitches that normally have hitters whiffing wide over the plate either weren't enticing enough to the disciplined Yanks or weren't falling in for a strike. Sabathia's inability to pound the strikezone (just 54% of his pitches were strikes) caused him to fall behind many hitters early and put him in some tough jams. I have to give C.C. some dap for cleaning up after himself though, as he only gave up one run at a time. His strikeout of Jorge Posada in the fifth with the bases loaded preserved the Tribe's one-run lead, giving his team a shot to win (bottom of the fifth, not withstanding).

So what was wrong with Sabathia? Well, facing the Yankees lineup and their AL best, .366 OBP was bound to inflate Sabathia's walk rate at least a little, but I think the main issue with Sabathia's control was nerves. Some may be quick to dismiss a comparison of the stoic, mature C.C. of 2007 with the young, inexperienced hurler of 2001 (coincidentally, he pitched just slightly better against Seattle as a rookie). It would be perfectly normal for Sabathia to be affected by his nerves in only his second career postseason start. Pressure affects a lot of normally strong pitchers (most recently, Jake Peavy and Tom Glavine) and I think Sabathia was just a victim of poor focus.

My prediction is that C.C. will be locked in for his next start (be it against NY or another team). He's got too much talent and determination to let pressure affect him for very long.

The real story in Game 1 was the Tribe's destruction of Chien Ming Wang. Wang was [insert inappropriate adjective here] removed after giving up 8 ER on 9 H and 4 BB in just 4.2 IP. Kenny Lofton led the attack with 3 hits, a run, and 4 RBI. Victor and Garko combined on 6 H, 5 R, and 4 RBI to round out the offense. Cleveland showed how dangerous their power-laden lineup can be by launching four taters; two off groundball specialist, Wang.

Whatever Wang was doing in Game 1 wasn't fooling the Tribe batters. Cleveland took a steady approach and didn't try and do too much with the ball. By consistently going with the pitch, Cleveland kept Wang out of his element (5 GB-5 FB outs) and was able to put up crooked numbers in the first and fifth innings, chasing New York's ace early.

Bullpen stalwarts Perez, Lewis, and Betancourt combined on 1 hit ball over the final 4 innings.

Game 2: Carmona vs. Pettitte

Intense. That's how I would sum up Game 2 in a single word. Fausto Carmona pitched the game of his life, in October, against the best offense in baseball. Brilliant. Superb. Alucinante. Whatever you want to call it, Carmona's Game 2 stands as one of the greatest games I've ever watched live and ranks among the greatest postseason starts by a Cleveland pitcher. I try not to be too much of a homer on this blog, but anyone who disputes the outright awesomeness of this game is either a Yankee fan or has no appreciation for the sport.

Here is Carmona's stat line from Game 2:

IP	H	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
9	3	1	2	5	1	1.00

Carmona never allowed more than one baserunner in an inning and scattered his three hits and 2 BB over separate innings. Carmona struck out Damon and Jeter twice each. He struck out Rodriguez thrice. Cano and Rodriguez did not advance from the batters box all night (Perez with the assist here). Despite utilizing a wide array of filthy breaking pitches, Fausto threw 67.5% of those 114 pitches for strikes. Carmona also had 18 groundball outs and 2 doubleplays on the night.

Fausto's complete game opus set up a crucial matchup for extra innings. If Carmona had only pitched seven innings, there is a good chance we would have seen Perez and Betancourt during regulation. This means the two best pitchers in the Cleveland bullpen may not have been available beyond the 10th inning. Fausto saving the bullpen gave the Tribe a significant advantage over New York once the game went to extras.

The Yankees didn't have a man in scoring position until Abreu reached on an infield single and stole secondbase in the 9th inning. Fausto Carmona versus Alex Rodriguez. Two of the best players in baseball facing off in a 9th inning, 1-1 tie:

The tempest of Lake Erie gnats was still clouding the field as Mariano Rivera warmed up in the bullpen. Abreu had just reached base on a dribbling, infield single. Carmona's attention was already diverted by the gnats, but now he has to monitor the speedy Abreu at first. Fausto directs his first pitch to the inside of the strikezone, right under Rodriguez's hands.

Rodriguez couldn't get around on Fausto's patented 94 MPH sinker, fouling off the first pitch and swinging over another. Despite a persistent Rodriguez, Fausto and Victor refuse to give in and continue to pound the inside of the plate.

Abreu piles on the drama as he steals second on a ball in the dirt. TBS flashes Rodriguez's April walk-off against the Tribe; a Yankee fan I'm watching the game with predicts a homerun by A-Rod, but I couldn't care less. Rodriguez is starting to get anxious as he chops at a ball heading towards the dirt. The count is loaded as Rodriguez fouls off his fourth pitch of the at-bat.



















The Jacobs Field faithful have risen to their feet long ago. Victor sets up on the inside of the plate, once again. Fausto looks in, winds up and lets it fly. The ball starts over the plate, but makes a sudden break down and away; right where Rodriguez can't get it. The pitch glides into Victor's glove as Rodriguez walks toward the dugout. Beautiful.

Hafner's hit ended the game, but Carmona was really the one who won it, as the offense failed on multiple occasions tonight. It was clear early on that Carmona was going to have to be the one to carry the team tonight, as the offense suffered from a mix of bad luck and poor execution at the plate.

The Tribe's first late scoring opportunity came after Sizemore had led off the 6th inning with a triple. Rookie Asdrubal Cabrera grounded out and Hafner and Martinez struck out swinging to waste the opportunity. Other opportunities included Peralta's one-out double in the 7th and a bases loaded situation in the 8th. I really can't express how frustrating it was to watch these opportunities come and go, but I probably don't have to since a lot of Tribe fans felt the same way.

Wedge tried to compensate for the struggling offense by ordering four sacrifice bunts on the night. They were well-executed bunts, but I'm not sure I agree with the approach. Fortunately, I have more than just bitter hindsight to go on, as AstroCab's sac bunt in the 8th allowed Grady to score on a wild pitch to tie the game.

Raffy Perez pitched his fourth consecutive inning of no-hit, playoff baseball as he matched Mariano Rivera in extra innings, allowing Hafner to take advantage of the Tribe's second bases-loaded situation of the night. Hafner's hit ended the game, but Carmona was really the one who won it, as the offense failed on multiple occasions tonight.

Then of course, there were the bugs. Watching the 8th inning was like watching some kind of divine intervention play out at the Jake. It was as if Nature itself was rooting against the Yankees.

Joba's Kryptonite: Tiny Insects

Now, everyone seems to have an opinion on the bug infestation:

"According to crew chief Bruce Froemming, who spoke to a pool reporter after the game, stopping action because of the bugs never was under consideration." - MLB.com article

"I would have probably pulled us off the field." - Roger Clemens

"The Yankees were acting like there were bullets flying around their heads, not gnats. I mean… this is the big leagues." - Ryan Garko

"It was no different than playing a game in a deluge. Cleveland's pitching was fabulous, but the Yankees must live with knowing that insects helped cause their defeat." - Tom Verducci

"They looked like small Pterodactyls. I don't know. They were there for a while and then they were gone." - Casey Blake

Personally, I think Casey's quote is the best.

I'm really surprised at Tom Verducci, as I normally have a lot of respect for his opinion on baseball matters. He is absolutely wrong in this case. First of all, both teams had to play in identical conditions. It's not like the gnats flew in for half an inning and left; they hung around through the bottom of the 9th, at least.

Second, a "deluge" is not the same as a swarm of gnats. A heavy rain affects the movement of the baseball, which is all that should matter short of something dangerous or physically impeding to the game. Chamberlain and Carmona pitched in the exact same conditions for the 8th. One could handle it, the other couldn't. Simple as that. The bugs weren't even capable of biting anyone, they were just a nuisance. People are acting as if the ump didn't allow time in case one flew into a player's eye (they allowed 10 minutes for bug repellent application, give me a break). Insects should not warrant a delay of game and apparently the crew chief agrees with me on this one.

Third, the idea that such an amazing game will be remembered by most fans as the bug game is absurd. Probably true, but absurd nonetheless. Am I paying way too much attention to this? Of course, but I thought it would be amusing to compare some of the various quotes on the matter. Oh, and Cleveland (not the gnats) won the game, which is also somewhat relevant.

Gark-o-Rama

Ryan Garko has a playoff blog up on the official team website. A lot of the content is typical fluff, but he does offer some interesting insight into pre-game preparation and what some of the players think about during the playoffs. Check it out here.

ALDS Preview: Offense

You may be wondering what the point of discussing New York’s offense is at this point. Trying to compare another team to the current New York offense sounds like an exercise in futility, doesn’t it? If you’re trying to build a case for Cleveland having a better offense, then you’re definitely going nowhere fast. What I would like to do is compare the tools available to each team (power, speed, OBP) and see where each team stands per category. Cleveland may be outclassed overall, but that doesn’t mean they can’t exploit the weaknesses of the opposition to gain an edge. I also looked at how each offense handles certain pitching styles to see if any surprising trends showed up. Below are the season stats for each team:

Player	EqA	SB	HR	OBP	OPS+
G. Sizemore	.290	33	24	.390	127
A. Cabrera	.265	0	3	.354	107
T. Hafner	.285	1	24	.385	123
V. Martinez	.292	0	25	.374	133
R. Garko	.279	0	21	.359	123
J. Peralta	.260	4	21	.341	105
J. Michaels	.243	3	7	.324	92
F. Gutierrez	.262	8	13	.318	108
C. Blake	.260	4	18	.339	106
K. Lofton	.244	2	0	.344	91
T. Nixon	.238	0	3	.342	82
J. Barfield	.204	14	3	.270	58
C. Gomez	.202	0	0	.278	60
K. Shoppach	.257	0	7	.310	106

Player	EqA	SB	HR	OBP	OPS+
J. Damon	.263	27	12	.351	101
D. Jeter	.284	15	12	.452	126
B. Abreu	.278	25	16	.369	119
A. Rodriguez	.339	24	54	.422	183
J. Posada	.322	2	20	.426	160
H. Matsui	.285	4	25	.367	128
J. Giambi	.269	1	14	.356	112
R. Cano	.277	4	19	.353	124
M. Cabrera	.248	13	8	.327	93
S. Duncan	.282	0	7	.329	133
D. Mientkiewicz	.266	0	5	.349	112
J. Molina	.260	0	1	.333	107
W. Betemit	.230	0	4	.278	84

Note: Click EqA and OPS+ for more info. All stats taken from BR and BP.

Yikes. To be honest, I didn’t picture the Tribe getting blown away in nearly every offensive category; that certainly makes my little speech above seem irrelevant. There it is in black and white though.

The only thing Cleveland has going for it (as far as a possible advantage) is the way their power is spread throughout the lineup. Five of their starting nine have at least 20 homeruns, with only two batters not reaching double digit taters. Cleveland’s power distribution has contributed to many of their come-from-behind victories this season and could re-emerge to steal a late playoff win. I take little comfort in this fact as I stare at three guys with a .420+ OBP and a 54 homer cleanup slot for New York.

One surprising part of New York’s offense is how much speed they have at the top. The Yanks have three players with 20+ SB and a fourth with 15. Tribe pitchers are going to have to buckle down and keep an eye on their baserunners; otherwise the speedy top of the Yanks’ lineup will be giving Victor fits all night. Cleveland’s SB totals don’t reflect a speed threat outside of Grady, but the potential for mobile havoc is there. Cabrera, Lofton, and Gutierrez all have base-stealing speed, while Michaels and Barfield offer extra speed off the bench for close and late situations.

As mentioned above, New York’s bread and butter are wearing down pitchers with long at bats and walks. New York is fourth in the AL in pitches per plate appearance (3.89) and walks (637) and first in OBP (.366). Not to be outdone, Cleveland is second in the AL in pitches per plate appearance, sixth in walks (590), and seventh in OBP (.343). With two patient offenses in the box it will be interesting to see how long of a leash starting pitchers get with their pitch counts. If the leash is short (100-110 pitches), the bullpen may end up playing an even bigger role for each team as starters grind out each at-bat. It would make sense to allow your more durable pitchers (think C.C. vs. Byrd) to go the extra mile in the playoffs though, so early bullpen appearances may not be so prevalent.

It would obviously be an uphill battle for Cleveland to out-slug New York in a shootout. With the above lineups intact, New York edges Cleveland in OPS+ 127.3 to 113.7. Just for fun, let’s remove one of the Yanks’ best player (Rodriguez) from the lineup: 120.3 OPS+ to Cleveland’s 113.7. Even without Rodriguez, New York has Cleveland smoked on offense (at least on paper).

I could talk about how the playoffs are a crapshoot (they kinda are) and how the Tribe’s momentum and underdog status could help them break through (arguable), but those aren’t things I would want to hang my hat on going into the playoffs. What we know for sure, is there are just too few holes and too many great hitters on New York for Cleveland to realistically expect to win with an offense-first strategy. What we also know, is that Cleveland is far from a one-dimensional team and boasts two aces to combat New York’s nine-headed monster. So there you have it: the bottom line for the ALDS is pitching versus hitting. That was probably the most mundane ALDS preview around, but it’s pretty blatant, especially after sifting through the stats for anything out of the ordinary.

On the Season Series

I wanted to wrap up my ALDS ramblings with a counter to all the fans and writers who incessantly use the Tribe’s 0-6 season record against New York as the basis for their arguments. Cleveland is a different team now than it was then, especially back in April during the first series. Two games consisted of Westbrook and Sowers getting shelled. Sowers is no longer with the team and Westbrook was possibly injured in April (he missed nearly a month from May-June). Game 3 of the April series saw Carmona surrender 2 ER over 6 IP; again, good enough to win if not for Borowski’s worst single game performance all season. All this happened in the third week of the season.

Fast forward to the September set: Travis Hafner is out of the lineup with an injury, Trot Nixon starts 2 of 3 games, and Barfield is still the starting second baseman. Which of these factors holds true today? Here’s a hint; it rhymes with De Niro. Cleveland was still mired in a horrible offensive slump with .723 OPS in August (season-low), which means they were unable to support the solid starts tossed by Carmona and Westbrook (7 IP 4 ER, each). Plus, where’s C.C. in all of this? Well, he hasn’t faced New York since 2004.

Are people really that quick to dismiss Cleveland in this series? What’s a more accurate assessment, 96 games or 6?

Pronk (.965 OPS in Sept.) is finally back to lead a resurgent offense into the playoffs in support of the Tribe’s outstanding pitching (3.27 ERA in Sept.). The team has gotten a shot in the arm from players like Jensen Lewis and Asdrubal Cabrera. Jake has also been one of the best pitchers in the AL leading up to the playoffs with a 1.90 ERA in August and a respectable 4.14 ERA in September. And again, Sabathia has not even faced New York this season.

The Tribe enters the playoffs with an enthusiasm and confidence that will be tough to overcome when fused with their enormous talent. If you want to keep shoving the season series in my face, go ahead. I’m already looking towards October.

ALDS Preview: Pitching

96 versus 0-6: that’s what most of the shallow analysis surrounding the ALDS seems to stem from. I’ve heard Cleveland referred to as the “other team” multiple times, as if they aren’t even worthy to play the mighty Yanks. Six games do not define a team. It seems like other fans and the media always focus on certain points (especially that season series) when comparing New York and Cleveland, but many are just not represented accurately.

I keep hearing about New York’s overwhelming offense, veteran pitching, playoff experience, and that old Yankee mystique. Is Cleveland really the underdog here? Hometown bias aside, I just don’t buy the Tribe being outmatched here. To try and answer this question, I’ve broken down each team and re-examined aspects of the season series.

Starting Pitching

New York’s calling card this season has been its offense, but the pitching staff should not be overlooked. Fans tend to hype up the playoff experience of New York’s starting rotation, but their true ace, Wang, has seen only three seasons. The Yanks’ trio of Clemens, Pettite, and Mussina has playoff experience to spare, but are not as nearly as dominant as they once were. A rotation with those guys would be downright horrifying…three years ago. Whether or not these guys have enough left in the tank to significantly elevate their game for the postseason (quite possible) remains to be seen, but they are certainly mortal.

I don’t believe it’s been decided yet, but I think Mike Mussina will get the nod over Phil Hughes, so he’s included in the table. I’m basing this partly on the experience of Mussina and on the logic Joe Torre may use in managing his rookie phenom. Expect Hughes to fill in for long relief if Clemens or Mussina can’t make it deep into a game.

What I wanted to know was how the style of New York’s four starters was reflected in their season stats. I pulled some fancier stats this time to try and figure out how each pitcher would be attacking the Tribe. You can get a good sense of how each pitcher operates and where they’ve had success. I’ve also included Cleveland’s rotation as a more familiar benchmark for comparison.

Pitcher	IP	Home ERA	Away ERA	WHIP	GO/FO	K/G	BB/G	HR/G	P/PA
Wang	199.3	2.75	4.91	1.29	2.36	4.9	2.8	.42	3.5
Clemens	99	3.29	5.17	1.31	1.27	6.3	2.9	.83	3.8
Pettitte	210.3	4.17	3.47	1.42	1.50	6.1	2.9	.61	3.7
Mussina	152	4.88	5.48	1.46	1.16	5.4	2.1	.82	3.7
Pitcher	IP	Home ERA	Away ERA	WHIP	GO/FO	K/G	BB/G	HR/G	P/PA
Sabathia	241	3.13	3.32	1.14	1.28	8.3	1.5	.79	3.7
Carmona	215	3.36	2.73	1.20	2.88	6	2.7	.70	3.6
Westbrook	145.7	3.94	4.83	1.40	1.92	5.5	3.4	.81	3.8
Byrd	192.3	5.68	3.51	1.38	.87	4.1	1.3	1.25	3.4

Note: GO/FO = groundout / flyout ratio; P/PA = pitches per plate appearance. All stats taken from BR and THT.

How do the rotations stack up? I was a little surprised at how similar some of these numbers turned out to be. NY tends to walk batters more (2.67/G) than Cleveland (2.25), but this is not necessarily a big advantage if you remember how Byrd’s outings tend to go. Byrd may not walk many, but the number of hits and homeruns he surrenders make his walk totals somewhat deceiving. Cleveland also has more power in their rotation, striking out 5.97 per game, while NY strikes out 5.67 per game. Again, there’s a catch; Carmona and Westbrook strikeout their share of batters, but don’t need a high K rate to be successful. Carmona and Westbrook can stifle bats with the groundball and double-play just as effectively.

I realize data from a large, 162 game sample size may not translate well (if at all) into a condensed, five game series. Despite this, you can’t just ignore the ERA splits. I believe New York’s rotation will fall as Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Mussina, which would nullify the ugly splits for Pettitte and Clemens. As the ace though, Wang could end up pitching in Games 1 and 5 (if necessary), which means his 4.91 road ERA could end up working against him. With Sabathia on the mound and his 3.13 home ERA, this should make for an intriguing match-up.

The thing that really puts Cleveland’s rotation a giant step ahead of New York’s is how their top two pitchers compare. Cleveland’s two aces (Sabathia and Carmona) are significantly better than New York’s (Wang and Clemens) no matter how you split it. It’s kind of obvious, but I believe the potential of facing Sabathia and Carmona four times in a five game series is huge. Granted, Sabathia would be throwing on three days rest in a potential Game 4, but if Cleveland has their backs against the wall such a gamble could be what turns the tide in their favor.

Filling out the rotations, Pettitte and Westbrook are comparable, but Pettitte definitely gets the edge on paper. Byrd wins the stat war with Mussina, but Mussina is an interesting case. Mussina’s problem of late has been consistency; he’ll throw a quality start one week and get burned the next. Considering the Tribe would only see Mussina once, he could be a wild card in that match-up. Not to say Byrd couldn’t pull a quality start out of his hat, but we tend to know what’s coming with Byrd; he’s been consistently average.

Overall, the rotations are a closer match then anticipated, but Cleveland’s 1-2 punch is just too much to handle in a short series.

Bullpen

I wasn’t sure how deep I should go into the bullpens given my limited knowledge of how NY actually manages theirs. What I do know are the questions facing each bullpen going into the playoffs.

How will each team deal with middle relief if a starter falters?

Cleveland has one good and one dominant arm in Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez. Both are capable of going multiple innings in a pinch, with Perez splitting most of his time backing up Betancourt in the 7^th and 8^th innings. I don’t see Perez straying from the last three innings, so look for Lewis or even Fultz to take the 6^th. Lewis essentially earned his playoff roster spot after posting a .69 ERA with 15 K in (*small sample size alert*) 13 IP. Cleveland’s long relief corp rounds out with Aaron Laffey, who should see most of his time in emergency relief where the starter can’t go 6 innings.

New York’s middle relief is a bit murky, but I’d bet money that Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes win the role on the playoff roster. Both are starters by trade and provide a strong safety net for the likes of Clemens and Mussina, neither of which is guaranteed to make it through five innings. Kennedy has just three starts (against sub-.500 teams), while Hughes sports a 2.73 ERA in 5 September starts. Despite the undefined roles of many of New York’s relievers, they have plenty of viable options in middle relief.

How will the kids handle the pressure of the playoffs?

This is the keystone for each bullpen, in my opinion. Raffy Perez and Joba Chamberlain have played crucial roles for their respective teams to this point. Both have experience pitching in tough situations and throw some of the nastiest stuff in either pen. Perez’s experience in these tough games significantly outnumbers Chamberlain’s, but the playoffs are a whole other degree of pressure to some guys. I honestly can’t say how either will react to pitching in the postseason, but it could end up as a decisive pitching match-up for the series.

What will Borowski do?

Save games, of course. Moving on…

That’s all for now, but I’ll check out the offense in Part II of my ALDS preview tomorrow.

Playoff Pitching Overkill

A few days ago, I got the bright idea of writing about the Tribe’s starting rotation going into the playoffs. Then I realized everyone and Yogi Berra had already discussed/blogged/published their thoughts on the subject. So, after a bad case of writer’s block (among other things) I followed through with the pitching slant anyway. So now I present to you, the esteemed reader, yet another playoff pitching preview.

I don’t know about you, but trying to figure out who would be pitching when in either ALDS series was a bit of a hassle. I sifted through the various combos, as they pertain to the Tribe, to try and remove any lingering confusion on the subject.

ALDS Schedule A

	Game 1	Rest Day	Game 2	Rest Day	Game 3	Game 4	Rest Day	Game 5
Pitcher	Sabathia		Carmona		Westbrook	Sabathia		Carmona
Park	Home		Home		Away	Away		Home

ALDS Schedule B

	Game 1	Game 2	Rest Day	Game 3	Game 4	Rest Day	Game 5
Pitcher	Sabathia	Carmona		Westbrook	Byrd		Sabathia
Park	Away	Away		Home	Home		Away

ALDS Series A gives the teams a third days rest, with the only consecutive games scheduled for games 3 and 4. This allows Wedge to start Sabathia and Carmona twice on regular rest (four days). The third starter, Westbrook, would be scheduled to pitch in Game 3. Schedule A is obviously the ideal situation for a short series, but only the AL team with the best overall record gets to choose which ALDS schedule to play.

The difference between Series A and B is that Series B allows only two days rest, forcing Wedge to go with a four-man rotation. With a four-man staff, Sabathia would be given two starts (in Games 1 and 5), while Carmona, Westbrook, and Byrd would receive one start each. Wedge could start Sabathia in Game 4 on just 3-days rest, allowing Carmona to pitch in a potential Game 5. Starting C.C. on short rest in Game 4 is a bad idea though, especially since he’d be scheduled to pitch the finale on regular rest anyway.

Working off my limited knowledge of sports medicine and pitching mechanics, Sabathia seems like a poor candidate for pitching on short rest because of how hard he pitches. Throwing 110+ pitches with as much zip as C.C. puts on the ball probably necessitates all four days of rest for him to be at 100% for his next start and deter possible injury or fatigue down the line. Sabathia has only started on 3 days rest once in his career and has a slightly better ERA (3.89 vs. 3.66) on extended rest for his career (in 77 less starts).

If C.C. were to start in Game 4 of the ALDS, his next start on regular rest would land on Game 3 of the ALCS, while Carmona wouldn’t pitch until Game 4. In the normal ALDS rotation, Byrd would pitch Game 4, leaving Carmona and Westbrook available (on regular rest) for Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS. So, not only is starting C.C. on short rest in Game 3 completely unnecessary, it also scrambles the rotation for the ALCS. The severity of a situation may override the fact that a starter hasn’t had four days off, but I think the above management ideas apply at least to the early projections going in.

Unless Wedge decides to play the splits, the ALDS rotation should be locked in as Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook, and (possibly) Byrd, in that order. Surprise!

One possible issue is matching each pitcher’s style and historical stats with the stadium they’ll be pitching in. Initially, I wanted to look at how each of the Tribe’s starters fared in the four AL playoff stadiums, but realized Carmona and Westbrook spent a good part of their careers as relievers and Sabathia and Byrd are having career years. Just looking at the starts from 2007 per stadium is impractical due to a miniscule sample size. Career stadium splits probably wouldn’t be too helpful in this case either (think Fausto at Fenway). Instead, let’s take a look at the home and away splits for each pitcher in 2007:

Park	Player	IP	ERA	Opp. OPS
Home	Sabathia	135.1	3.13	.648
Away		98.2	3.28	.729
Home	Carmona	105.2	3.32	.650
Away		102.1	2.73	.669
Home	Westbrook	82.10	3.94	.752
Away		63.1	4.83	.695
Home	Byrd	95	5.68	.869
Away		91	3.36	.713

There are a few trends that Wedge may try and take advantage of here. The most glaring stat is Byrd’s 2.32 point difference between his home (5.68) and road ERA (3.36). This surprised me, but his career splits are right in line with this season; Byrd has a 4.84 career home ERA and a 3.87 road ERA. Kinda weird.

Carmona also shares the same preference for road games, with a 2.73 road and 3.32 home ERA; a .59 point difference. Westbrook sports a .89 differential, favoring home starts, while Sabathia has been consistent no matter where he plays. If you compare the splits to the ALDS travel schedule, the park each pitcher would pitch in doesn’t favor their season splits (except C.C.). There are many combinations you could use to even-out the home vs. road starts for the four-man rotation, but to be honest I’m not sure how Wedge may approach this. It’s very likely that Wedge will ignore the splits in favor of using his top 3 starters consecutively to open the ALDS.

On Home-field

I’m all for resting the starters now that the division is wrapped up, but I think the Tribe could gain a legitimate edge from finishing with the best record in the league. The owner of the best overall record gets home-field advantage through the playoffs, in addition to choosing their own schedule for the ALDS. I just talked about how the Tribe would benefit from the extra rest day in Schedule A, but Cleveland has also shown a tendency to play better at home. Here are the team’s home and away splits for 2007:

Split	W	L	RS	RA	WP
Home	51	29	425	366	.638
Road	42	34	358	318	.553

Cleveland has a .638 win percentage at home, compared to a .553 mark on the road, as of 10/27. The curious part is that the offense has outperformed the pitching at home. Cleveland has a run differential (runs scored – runs against) of 59 at home, but a differential of 40 on the road. According to Baseball Reference, Jacobs Field has a Park Factor of 97 batting to 98 pitching. Batting and pitching are calculated separately, with a score over 100 for either case showing favor to hitters. The Park Factor stat suggests pitchers have a slight advantage over hitters at the Jake, yet the actual stats suggest the opposite.

The apparent conflict may stem from the fact that the Tribe’s starters divide their preferences between home (Sabathia, Westbrook) and away (Byrd, Carmona). Westbrook may have lopsided splits, but his best and worst split (home-away) versus Byrd’s (away-home) are better overall. Also keep in mind, Carmona and Sabathia may not be as good in one case, but that still translates into great for them; making it almost a moot point to argue their splits. Before this gets any more convoluted, here’s the bottom line: the offense tends to perform much better at home, while the pitching is just short of a draw. Advantage: Home

Random Notes

Victor Martinez suffered a knee contusion from a foul ball late in Tuesday’s game against Seattle. Victor had to leave that game in the 8^th, but was healthy enough to start behind the plate in Game 1 of Wednesday’s double-header. Said Wedge in an Anthony Castrovince interview: "We wanted to take precautions with it just to make sure, but he's all right." Hopefully, Victor can get a few days off when he’s not injured, given the extra wear and tear catchers endure over a season. Not to mention Garko and Shoppach are perfectly capable of taking over for a few games while he rests.

The Plain Dealer ran a cool article on the team’s cadre of Venezuelan’s and the Tribe’s presence in the South American country. I’m especially interested in Latin American baseball, but it’s a good read just the same. Check it out here.

CHAMPS!

2007 CENTRAL DIVISION CHAMPIONS

GO CELEBRATE TRIBE FANS!!!

Next Year is Now

It’s a strange feeling watching your team in a playoff race when you already know the outcome. Sure there were some frustrating stretches, but did anyone really, truly doubt Cleveland was going to miss the playoffs this season? I’ve expressed doubts in this forum before, but I always knew in the back of my mind I was watching a great baseball team. Maybe it was just a fan’s blind faith.

As the Tribe closed out a sweep of the Tigers though, I can’t say I really had any sense of shock or surprise; it was more like a contained joy or excitement. Maybe I should have been more amped up for the Detroit series (which I didn’t miss a minute of), but it’s hard to be on the edge of your seat if you already know the ending. I really couldn’t be prouder of my (i.e. your) team right now knowing where they’ve come from and where they’re going; that in itself is extremely satisfying. So what went down to put Cleveland in this position?

August 1: Cleveland was in the midst of a horrible offensive slump and had an active 4-game losing streak. Detroit was struggling to tread water as well, clinging to a one game advantage in the Central.

September 1: Cleveland’s offense caught fire, the pitching staff gobbled up wins like Pacman, and a rookie infielder from Venezuela was showing everyone why he deserves to wear the number on his back. Detroit was still stuck in neutral as the Tribe built a 5.5 game lead and churned out 8 straight wins.

September 17: Detroit has managed to right the ship just in time for the series finale against Cleveland. The Tigers are bringing a renewed confidence and a 5-game winning streak to the Jake. Cleveland’s lead has held steady at 5.5 games, but faces one last obstacle before they can put the division in a stranglehold.

September 20: Cleveland completes its sweep of Detroit, standing atop a 7.5 game lead after knocking 6 games off their magic ticket to the postseason.

According to the Baseball Prospectus postseason odds, Cleveland has a 99.95680 percent chance of winning their division. Feel free to round up to the nearest tenth, Tribe fans.

Cleveland has compiled a .667 win percentage against teams within their division; the best intra-division record in the majors (Boston comes in second with a .579 WP). The Tribe also went 12-6 against Detroit, scoring more runs (99) against them than any of Detroit’s opponents this season.

I’m not sure what the Tigers were expecting against a team that had gone 30-16 since August 1, but getting tossed to the curb in a three game sweep was probably not what they had in mind. Detroit actually led in all three games, but failed to hold a lead in any of them. To be fair, it’s difficult to hold a lead when your pitchers can’t even keep the ball in the yard. The Tribe’s offense smashed 8 homeruns in three games against the best of the Detroit pitching staff (or what’s left of it, at least). Detroit’s ERA over the series was 5.67, including spectacular failures by Guitar Hero Joel Zumaya (1 IP, 3 ER, BS) and ace-by-default Justin Verlander (5.2 IP, 7 ER).

It’s difficult to single out any one Indian in the field, as each player made a key contribution at some point in the series; it was a true team effort. While the offense and defense were top notch, the bullpen was even better.

Given the obstacles Paul Byrd and Jake Westbrook ran into in Games 1 and 2, the bullpen’s dominance played a pivotal role in deciding the series. Here are the combined splits for the Tribe bullpen in the Detroit series:

IP	H	BB	K	ER
9.2	4	1	12	0

Jensen Lewis was among the bullpen stalwarts, bailing out Westbrook in Game 2 with a brilliant 3 inning, 4 strikeout performance. Lewis was pitching in AA Akron at the start of the season and is now primed to make the playoff roster for an AL powerhouse. Raffy Betancourt continued to blow batters away and Joe Bo picked up two impressive, 1-2-3 saves. Borowski now leads the AL with 42 saves. Aaron Fultz also made an appearance in relief. Cleveland’s bullpen has been performing all along, to the tune of a 3.76 season ERA.

The Tribe didn’t just knock down the door to the Central Division; they blew it away with a bazooka.

I hadn’t even mentioned the captain of the pitching staff. If Sabathia doesn’t win the Cy Young this year, I will personally egg Jon Heyman’s house (I don’t actually know if he’s a voter, but I don’t really need a reason for this guy). I realize the Cy Young, like the MVP, has lost most of its credibility as a measure of performance, but I know how much these awards can mean to the players. Who wouldn’t be stoked to win the award for best pitcher in baseball? In that regard, I’d be really disappointed for Charles Carsten if he didn’t take the Cy this season; he’s earned it.

Chances are, if you’re reading this you already know the magnitude of Sabathia’s contributions to the Tribe, so I won’t spend much time explaining his leadership, maturity, toughness, and superb fashion sense. That’s a given. Just for fun though, let’s take a look at the season splits for the Crooked Cap:

IP	W-L	K	BB	ERA	WHIP	K/BB	CG
234	18-7	205	36	3.19	1.14	5.69	4

It may be a slim margin, but C.C. has been the best pitcher in the American League this season (and arguably half of last season, but I digress) according to the stats above. If wins are your thing, just imagine how many Sabathia would have with the kind of run support Josh Beckett has gotten this season. Boston has averaged 6.45 runs per game with Beckett on the mound, while Sabathia has gotten 5.10 RPG on the season. Sabathia also went through a stretch where he gave up 2 runs or less in 10 straight starts (July 24-Sept. 3), but picked up just 3 wins due to poor run support. You would hope a stat like that would weigh heavily on the minds of voters, who tend to over emphasize a candidate's win-loss record in the first place.

Sabathia also has an edge over Beckett in win shares, 22-18; implying C.C. has been more valuable to his team than Beckett (obviously a rough metric here, but it’s good for a brief look like this one). Unfortunately, I’m not much of a sabermetrician, but I’m fairly confident that a more in depth analysis of Sabathia’s value as an individual player and to his team would exceed Beckett’s in most cases.

Fun Fact: According to Stats, Inc., the only other left-hander since 1901 to post a better K/BB ratio than Sabathia's mark this season was Randy Johnson, who had a 6.59 ratio in 2004.

C.C. would probably be the first to tell you that the Cy Young doesn’t mean jack compared to a playoff run though. I’m a believer in the old adage, good pitching beats good hitting, and Cleveland’s frontline starters are no exception. Any team with a 1-2 punch as formidable as C.C. and Fausto has more than a reasonable shot at going deep into the playoffs.

I’m extremely superstitious when it comes to baseball (calling the division race just now is about as bold as it gets for me), but Tribe fans have every right to be obscenely excited about their team right now. The Brownies can wait, it’s Tribe Time now.

Random Notes

The STO crew recognized Tribe strength and conditioning coach Tim Maxey as the recipient of the Professional Baseball Strength and Conditioning Coaches Society’s Coach of the Year Award. Congrats Tim, it’s certainly well deserved.

There was an interesting article on the Hardball Times this week on soon-to-be retired ump Bruce Froemming. It featured some insightful anecdotes and a pretty amazing list of events Bruce has been linked to over his 37 year career. Check it out here.