Does Sabathia Deserve the Cy Young Hype?

If you had asked me at the beginning of August who I thought should win the NL Cy Young, I probably would have said Webb, Lincecum, or Santana depending on how they fared down the stretch. Sure, C.C. Sabathia had been shredding National League bats into dust for over a month at that point, but I didn't consider him a serious CY candidate.

First, the fact that Sabathia had split his time between two different leagues made him seem like a tough sell for an award traditionally given to NL-exclusive pitchers. Second, it seemed like Sabathia's credentials for the NL CY were being hyped up because he happened to get traded to Milwaukee in the middle of a playoff race. I was rooting for the Brew Crew to make the playoffs, but there was no way Sabathia would be able to keep up such a torrid pace, right? It almost seemed like a slight to the other candidates, several of whom were fighting for their own playoff berth, to discuss awarding the recently arrived Sabathia the title of the NL's Best Pitcher.

The trouble is, Sabathia hit the ground running in Milwaukee and never slowed down. Sabathia made 17 starts from July 8 to September 28, posting a 1.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 128 K over 130.7 IP. Milwaukee made no effort to temper C.C.'s competitive nature either, unleashing him in the midst of the wild card race with little concern for a pitch count. To get an idea of how far Sabathia pushed himself in the second half of the season, remember that the Major League leader in complete games was Roy Halladay with nine. Sabathia collected seven CG in about half that time (he had three in the first half with Cleveland, marking his second consecutive year with 10 CG).

Sabathia went on to pitch a complete game shutout on the final day of the season to punch the Brewer's first ticket to the postseason in 26 years. The must-win season finale was Sabathia's third consecutive start on just three days rest (he's in line to make a fourth straight start on short rest against Philly in Game 2 of the NLDS). Besides dragging a struggling Brewers club over the finish line, Sabathia's season is a testament to his durability, athleticism, focus, and outstanding skill as a pitcher. In fact, Sabathia has far surpassed his 2007 Cy Young winning campaign (19-7, 241 IP, 3.21 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 209 K) in every category except win percentage and total wins, making 2008 the best overall season of his career.

Would his stats be so impressive if Milwaukee hadn't given the 27 year old Sabathia free reign over his pitch counts though? As effective as Sabathia has been, there is a potential downside to letting him go like it's 1950 again (but not for Milwaukee). Milwaukee's desperation combined with Sabathia's confidence and competitive nature may have valuted C.C. beyond his peers in terms of performance this season, but I just hope 2008 doesn't come back to haunt him down the road. Interestingly enough, Tim Lincecum is ahead of Sabathia in Baseball Prospectus' Pitcher Abuse Points metric by 62,699 points. Sabathia is still well ahead of the field though with a 33,826 point buffer.

The risks associated with logging so many pitches per outing would grind down most pitchers, but who's to say Johan Santana wouldn't have dominated in the same way as Sabathia if the Mets didn't have millions of dollars still invested in their ace's arm. Santana could have easily reached the 20 win level without the Mets' bullpen holding him back, likely pushing him to the front of the pack in CY consideration. In that sense, it could be argued that Sabathia had an unfair advantage over more restricted (and sane) pitchers.

A similar argument of circumstance can be made on behalf of Tim Lincecum and the fact that he plays for a basement dweller like the Giants. Many voters feel that whether a player's team makes the playoffs is an important part of the awards equation, but I personally disagree with this notion. The player doesn't get to choose the environment he pitches in, all he can do is give his best effort and suck it up when the offense gets shut out or the bullpen implodes. Interestingly, Lincecum, Sabathia, and Santana are all within two wins of each other overall, partly negating the disparate teams issue. All three pitchers have had to deal with either a poor offense (Lincecum, C.C. with Cleveland) or leaky bullpen (especially Santana) on multiple occasions this season.

Even with the pitchers' decisions removed from consideration, Sabathia is arguably at a disadvantage compared to the rest of the NL CY field. The NL features much softer lineups compared to the AL, but Sabathia has had to deal with both leagues over a roughly equal number of starts (18 AL starts, 17 NL starts). Meanwhile, Lincecum and Santana have had twice as many starts logged against NL lineups and appear to have an edge against Sabathia if his entire season were to be taken into consideration.

This brings us to the biggest sticking point in advocating Sabathia for the NL CY. Should C.C.'s entire season be considered in the voting process?

Rick Sutcliffe is the only player to be traded mid-season and end up winning the Cy Young for the league he was traded to. Sutcliffe was dealt from Cleveland to the Cubs on June 13 in 1984. Given Sutcliffe's less than stellar performance while with Cleveland (4-5, 94.3 IP, 5.15 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 58 K) and his near perfect run in Chicago, it's seems the voters didn't give his time in Cleveland much thought. Sutcliffe also faced a seemingly better pitcher in the voting that year. It may have been because he was a rookie or his team finished second to Sutcliffe's Cubs, but Dwight Gooden was better than Sutcliffe over 68 more innings and didn't get a single first place vote (Sutcliffe won unanimously).

1984 NL Cy Young Award Results

Player	Team (WP)	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	1st Place Votes^
Rick Sutcliffe	CHC (.596)	16-1	150	2.69	1.08	155	24
Dwight Gooden	NYM (.556)*	17-9	218	2.60	1.07	276	0
Bruce Sutter	STL (.519)*	5-7 (45 SV)	123	1.54	1.08	77	0
Joaquin Andujar	STL (.519)*	20-14	261	3.34	1.10	147	0

*Team did not reach playoffs
^Out of 24 possible votes

The precedent set by Sutcliffe shows that voters are not necessarily swayed by total innings or even if the pitcher has spent the entire season in the same league. Sutcliffe struggled the entire time he was in the AL that season (C.C. had a bad April, but was dominant after that), but like Sabathia, dominated after being traded to the NL. If anything, Sutcliffe's poor first half should have worked against him, but instead the voters saw the impact he made during a partial season in Chicago and ran with it. I think there is a strong chance Sabathia will benefit in the voting by helping Milwaukee to the playoffs in a similar manner.

I probably wouldn't vote for Sabathia if his time in the AL was banned from consideration. Technically, the NL CY is only supposed to consider innings logged in that league and the Sutcliffe vote showed that any AL starts tend to be ignored (that 5.15 ERA in the first half really sticks out).

If C.C. is limited to his NL starts, the gap in innings (over 100), wins (7), and strikeouts (over 130) compared to Lincecum is just too great to truly justify voting for Sabathia. The seven complete games and five shutouts are impressive, but unfortunately don't deserve to carry as much weight since Sabathia appeared to gain an edge from the fact that the Brewers' didn't need to worry about his arm beyond 2008. As great as Sabathia's impact was on the Brewers' second half, his 14.2 pitching win shares trail Johan Santana by 4.1 and Lincecum by 9.6.

I figured Sabathia would have been closer in win shares considering how bad the rest of the Brewers have been lately. Milwaukee went 49-40 (.550) before the trade and just 41-33 (.554) after, so it's safe to say they would have missed the playoffs by a wide margin with a slumping offense and an injured Ben Sheets had they not made the trade (again, a matter of circumstance).

The NL leader in wins, Brandon Webb, doesn't really deserve to be grouped in with those three pitchers; he just isn't good enough this year. I opted to include Webb into the table below anyway because he is still a serious candidate for the CY in the eyes of the voter. There are a few other pitchers who have come close to or surpassed Webb's performance this season (Cole Hamels gets honorable mention here), but have not been as good as the Big Three and are too far behind Webb in wins to have a realistic shot at getting many first place votes this year, so they were excluded from the conversation.

2008 NL Cy Young Candidates

Player	Team (WP)	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	CG	SHO	Pitching WS
C.C. Sabathia	MIL (.554)	11-2	130.7	1.65	1.00^	128	7^	3^	14.2
T. Lincecum	SF (.444)	18-5	227.0	2.62	1.17	265^	2	1	23.8
J. Santana	NYM (.549)	16-7	234.3	2.53^	1.14	206	3	2	18.3
B. Webb	ARI (.506)	22^ -7	226.7	3.30	1.19	183	3	1	18.8

^Leads or ties NL

The Sutcliffe precedent may ultimately work against Sabathia because his AL starts are impressive in their own right. Here are Sabathia's total stats for 2008:

C.C. Sabathia Totals for 2008 Season

Team (WP)	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	CG	SHO	Pitching WS
TOTAL (.493)	17-10	253.0	2.70	1.11	251	10	5	22.4

After taking all of the above factors into account, I think I would stop just short of calling Sabathia the best pitcher in baseball this season. Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay are the only two pitchers who would cause me to pause in terms of who has compiled the best overall season (yes, I'm backtracking a bit and saying Halladay may be more deserving of the CY than Lee).

Considering Sabathia only had a 116 ERA+ (adjusted by league, 100 indicating an average pitcher) with Cleveland and a ridiculous 262 ERA+ with Milwaukee, I think the difference in leagues has to be taken into account when comparing Halladay, Lee, and Sabathia in 2008. Lee's ERA+ of 175 and Halladay's 155 actually makes their respective campaigns even more impressive since they weren't able to feast upon National League lineups after the All Star Break.

So in conclusion, does Sabathia deserve the National League Cy Young Award?

Probably not.

Will he win it?

No, I'd put my money on Lincecum by a slight margin over Santana.

Fun Fact

The Cy Young Award was initially given to the single best pitcher in the Major Leagues from 1956 to 1966. Sandy Koufax was the last pitcher to win the unified title of best pitcher in 1966.

Isaac Out as Bullpen Coach

Longtime bullpen coach, Luis Isaac, was dismissed from the team this week. The announcement was made by Manager Eric Wedge, who apparently had the last word on the decision. Fans and the media alike seem to be surprised by the move, as there was no indication that Isaac had done anything to warrant getting fired this season. Even insiders like Tribe beatwriter Anthony Castrovince said he was "stunned" to hear the news, so the events leading up to the firing were really kept quiet.

A legitimate explanation has yet to be released and we may not find out why Isaac was let go for a while, if at all. Wedge did point out that Isaac was not being fired on account of the bullpen's poor performance this year, which led me to believe this was a personal matter. My initial guess was some sort of confrontation or rift occured between Isaac and another member of the coaching staff. Whatever it was, the team doesn't want to share the details.

The Diatriber provided a likely scenario in a post on Let's Go Tribe:

I think this is a move to clear the way for Scott Radinsky to replace Luis in the bullpen. Radinsky is ALWAYS lauded by the organization for righting players that are sent to him (Jen Lewis) or trying to put the finishing touches on young arms (I seem to remember a piece on him wanting to keep Stevens in AAA until he was “ready” for MLB) before they come to the parent club.

Who knows how the Isaac thing went down and why he wasn’t simply re-assigned, but my guess is that they decided that they wanted to get Radinsky into the Tribe bullpen and asked Luis to take another position. If he refused, he’s shown the door. Maybe more was in play, but I think it’s a matter of getting Radinsky up here with all of the young arms that he’s helped develop over the last few years.

This makes sense in terms of trying to advance the organization and Radinsky does seem like a logical replacement for Isaac. Still, I'm sad to hear that Luis is no longer with the team after 43 years. Isaac was first appointed bullpen coach in 1993 and has become sort of an institution at the Jake; one of the few constants left from that era of Indians baseball.

I wish Luis good luck at the next stop in his career, I'm sure he won't have much trouble finding an organization that values his pitching expertise.

Adíos to the Ace

I always seem to fall behind when it comes to covering major transactions. Obviously every one on the internet has commented on the Sabathia trade by now, but rather than strictly defer to some of the bigger Tribe blogs out there (who did a great job, by the way) I’ll see if I can come up with any new thoughts on the trade. Someone out there on the internets must think I know what I’m talking about, so I’ll provide a write up for you, the esteemed reader.

If you haven’t found out by now that C.C. (CC?) Sabathia has been traded to Milwaukee then you probably aren’t reading this article due to a lack of internet access. Cleveland received a total of four players in the deal, including an outfielder/first baseman, two pitchers, and a player to be named later (more on those guys later). After reading just about every scrap of analysis and opinion on the trade, I’m still convinced Shapiro made a good move here. Of course, you can’t please everyone, especially when you have the legendary Bartolo Colon trade on your resume like Shap does.

One criticism I’ve heard about the trade is that Cleveland should have waited until closer to the trade deadline in an attempt to drive up the price and woo more suitors. If Sabathia were more than just a four month rental, this might not have been a bad idea. However, Doug Melvin and Mark Shapiro moved quickly to make the exchange final, as it was mutually beneficial to do so.

First, the Brewers gain three or four extra starts from Sabathia, which would have been quite a broadside against division leader Chicago before they acquired Rich “ace bandage” Harden.

The Tribe’s benefits are not entirely obvious, but two possible nightmare scenarios were Sabathia getting injured or Milwaukee going on a massive slide before July 31. Falling from 3.5 games back to 8.5 in such a competitive division would make many GMs think twice before going all-in on a trade. Trade rumors indicate every contending team at least inquired about CC, with the Dodgers, Tampa Bay, and Boston among the supposed leaders (not confirmed, but it's irrelevant now).

Despite the plethora of trade packages available, Milwaukee’s fit Cleveland’s needs the best from the start and they seemed to express the strongest desire to deal. According to Shapiro, his staff had started shopping around three weeks before the deal went down, so I think it’s safe to say they knew exactly what was available before making a final decision. The fact that so many teams wanted Sabathia’s services probably helped drive up the price quite a bit. Even though Cleveland did not receive any current Major Leaguers, the centerpiece of the trade is about as good as it gets in terms of immediate value and potential.

The other criticism circulating is that Cleveland did not receive enough in return. I was surprised at how many people insisted on using the Colon trade as the benchmark for this deal. The circumstances for the two trades are very different and frankly, comparing any trade to the Colon trade is just unfair (you rarely see a return of value as successful as it was for Colon).

The biggest similarity is that Colon and Sabathia were both at the top of their game when dealt. Colon was 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA and 75 K, leading the AL in both innings and complete games heading into the All Star break. Like Milwaukee, the 2002 Expos were desperate for a playoff berth and were willing to empty the farm to win now. It’s important to remember that Colon was under team control through the end of the 2003 season because of a team option.

Here’s the prospect package Cleveland received back in 2002:

Brandon Phillips, SS – 20 years old

Ranked the 20^th best prospect by Baseball America in 2002, recently promoted to AAA; regarded as Montreal’s best overall prospect.

Cliff Lee, P – 23 years old

Was a decent prospect in Montreal’s system, but was in the midst of a breakout season at Class-AA.

Grady Sizemore, OF – 19 years old

Noted for his athleticism, the relatively unknown Sizemore was struggling in the low level Florida State League with a .258 BA and no HR.

So, one elite position player, a raw, high-ceiling pitcher, and a Class-A prospect with good athletic skills from a very desperate Expos GM (they were facing contraction in ’02) in exchange for a 29 year old ace with a year and a half guaranteed contract in a pre-Zito free agent market.

Why would anyone expect a similar return for Sabathia? I fail to see the logic in exercising such high expectations for the Sabathia trade when your baseline is a six year old trade in a vastly different market that is arguably one of the five greatest trades in franchise history. Moving on….

The Return

Below is a brief description of the three known prospects obtained from Milwaukee:

Matt LaPorta, OF/1B – 23 years old

Level	Age	AB	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A	22	88	10	.318	.392	.750	1.142
AA	23	302	20	.288	.402	.576	.978

LaPorta was ranked as the 23^rd best prospect by Baseball America to open the 2008 season. He primarily played 1B in college and was named the 2007 Southeastern Conference Player of the Year with Florida and was a 1^st Team All-American at DH. The Brewers drafted him with the seventh overall pick in 2007.

Despite struggling in the outfield and being a natural first baseman, Milwaukee shifted LaPorta to the outfield in the minor leagues. The move made sense for Milwaukee, since they had Prince Fielder entrenched at 1B. LaPorta became a tradable commodity for Milwaukee after the emergence of corner outfielders Ryan Braun and Corey Hart.

This does not discount LaPorta’s value though, as he is far and away the best offensive prospect in a deep Brewer’s farm system. According to Jay at LGT, “LaPorta immediately becomes the best prospect in the Indians organization, or at worst a very close second to Triple-A LHP David Huff, another first-rounder having an outstanding season.”

There’s an excellent chance LaPorta will be contributing in the Majors by 2009. Cleveland will probably evaluate him in Buffalo before promoting him, but don’t let his Class-AA tag fool you. LaPorta is the real deal and should fill in a major hole in the Tribe’s offense for years to come.

It will be interesting to see how LaPorta’s presence affects Ryan Garko’s future with Cleveland. Garko is having a terrible season where he was supposed to be a major cog in the offense. I would not be surprised if Garko is traded before the start of the 2009 season, but Cleveland would definitely be selling low at this point.

Rob Bryson, RHP - 20 years old

Level	Age	IP	ERA	WHIP	K / BB	HR / IP
Rk	19	54.0	2.67	1.13	5.83	.037
A	20	55.0	4.25	1.15	3.65	.054

Bryson is only 20 years old and has not progressed past Class-A yet. As such, it’s difficult to draw much from his one and a half seasons of low minor league ball. Fortunately, Tony Lastoria obtained a scouting report from Brian Kapellusch and was kind enough to post it. Here’s what Kapellusch had to say on the young righty:

Draft & Follow guy, with a really great strikeout rate. He's got a very plus slider, and a decent fastball. I think he projects as a reliever, possibly a closer, but I suppose he could start if he developed a third pitch. Obviously he's only in A-ball, so he's got a way to go, but the Brewers wouldn't have signed him as a DFE player if they didn't think he was worth it.

Zach Jackson, LHP - 25 years old

Level	Age	IP	ERA	WHIP	K / BB	HR / IP
MLB	23	38.1	5.40	1.62	1.57	.157
AAA	24	169.2	4.46	1.46	1.92	.076
AAA	25	57.1	7.85	1.73	1.88	.174
MLB (MIL)	25	3.2	4.91	1.91	0.5	0.00

Jackson seems like a typical throw in player and I think his stats speak for themselves. He may be used as a long reliever for the remainder of 2008, but I doubt we’ll be seeing him in Cleveland next season unless he makes some major improvements in AAA.

Player to be Named Later

The PTBNL is actually a crucial part to this deal, but major media outlets have been glossing over it for some reason. According to a report by Castrovince, "it is believed the player to be named will either be Class A third baseman Taylor Green or Double-A outfielder Michael Brantley, both of whom are considered prime prospects."

Part of the reason I waited to write about the trade was because I was waiting to find out who the second major piece of the deal was. Apparently, Cleveland has until the end of the regular season to make their decision, but I doubt they’ll linger past the July 31 trade deadline. The Front Office has been knee deep in scouting reports the past few weeks, so they probably have a good idea of who they want and are just wrapping up some loose ends.

See Ya CC

On a personal note, I’m very sad to see Sabathia leave. He was by far the most electric and accomplished pitcher to ever take the mound for Cleveland during the Jacobs Field era and will be missed. I had been bracing for his departure since Spring Training, so I guess any frustration I might have felt in this case has already eroded away.

In a way, Sabathia’s departure isn’t much different than Thome or Ramirez or any of the other Free Agency Villains Cleveland fans usually bring up. Sabathia would have certainly left for more money and to be closer to his California home (the latter I can’t blame him for), yet most fans still seem fairly warm towards CC (myself included). I guess the fact he was traded first and we actually got some value back for one our departing stars makes a big difference in how the situation is perceived. Baseball is weird like that.

I am glad Sabathia was able to experience one more playoff run in a Cleveland uniform and finally win his Cy Young award (I knew he’d win one eventually). So adíos CC and good luck in Milwaukee. Just don’t sign with New York or Boston, ok?

Raising the White Flag

It's pretty obvious. If you're looking for an announcement that we're going to start trading guys, you won't get that until we make our first trade. But I think it's fairly obvious at this point.

-Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro, 7/2/08

The white flag was officially raised by Cleveland this week with 77 games remaining in the season. The decline of this year’s squad has been one long, painful slump after another. If it wasn’t the offense, it was the bullpen. If it wasn’t the bullpen (though it usually was), it was the starting pitching. As the injuries stacked up, it became more and more apparent that this team would not have the talent needed to contend.

There was certainly some risks and elevated expectations going into the 2008 season. Even if the team was completely healthy, they would have had a tough time improving on their ALCS appearance last year. Half the analysts from Bristol to Minneapolis were picking the Indians to make the playoffs again, maybe even go all the way. How much that pressure weighed on the players and the coaching staff, nobody knows except the people in the dugout. After all the seasoning this team has gone through since 2005, I doubt few players gave the pressure of making the playoffs again a second thought. Besides, hanging a season with this many speed bumps on mental hiccups just doesn’t make any sense.

The risk I was referring to is going into a season with out making any major upgrades or additions to the team. This is about the biggest hindsight criticism one can make, but it’s true; there was a degree of risk involved. Shapiro placed a lot of faith in young players like Garko, Gutierrez, and Cabrera to take the next step and they stumbled. Veterans who were charged with carrying left field, third base, and the closer role failed miserably. Even the vaunted core of Sizemore, Martinez, Peralta, and Hafner couldn’t save the season, as the catcher and DH succumbed to injuries for a crucial stretch of the season. The starting pitching was the one bright spot this season, until two of the most consistent starters found themselves on the DL as well.

Despite the hindsight argument that Shapiro failed to bolster the offense as teams like Boston and Detroit got stronger, we’ll never know the true potential of this group of players because two of the three main offensive cogs were never healthy to begin with. There is no way anyone could have predicted such a handicap, thus there was no way to prepare for it in the offseason (how much he knew about Hafner’s shoulder is arguable, but that would be pure speculation here). An offense does not fluctuate like a bullpen; these players had a history of success offensively and Shapiro made a perfectly defensible decision to stick with them.

Obviously this season was disappointing, but when you get down to it anything short of a Word Series win would have been a disappointment in the end. 2007 was one of the greatest seasons I’ve ever experienced as an Indians fan, yet it was all a mere stepping stone toward a long awaited goal. It’s not uncommon for a strong contender to take a step back the season after. Whether players leave, get injured, regress, age, or have the wear of a playoff run catch up to them, it’s extremely difficult to sustain.

Granted, some teams are the exception to this rule (Oakland, New York, Boston, Atlanta are the most recent….the list gets much shorter after that).

I believe Cleveland may have fallen victim to its own success in a way. Were Shapiro and Wedge overconfident because of the team’s past accomplishments?

Maybe.

Did pitchers like Carmona, Westbrook, and Betancourt over-work their arms by throwing so many strenuous innings?

Possibly.

Fluctuations like these are part of the game; you just have to hope your team can stay ahead of the curve.

In a way, it’s beneficial that Cleveland tanked this year. The team’s struggles were a quick (albeit painful) way of weeding out holes in the lineup and who should be shipped out. With any luck and a little less stubbornness from Wedge, the team will finally have a no-risk opportunity to evaluate Andy Marte in the Majors. Cleveland can also convert the value Sabathia may have offered in the playoffs into a young, cornerstone player for 2009 or 2010.

Falling out of contention may be a blessing in disguise if the return for Sabathia fills in one of those offensive holes that have plagued the team lately. There’s no way this team would trade Sabathia if it were still gunning for a playoff spot.

Below is my list of things I’d like to see happen now that Cleveland has raised the white flag and started taking entries for the C.C. Sweepstakes. I’ll go into more detail on a few of these later this week:

1.) Trade Sabathia

The trade winds blowing through Cleveland are practically a hurricane now. The two most convincing reports I’ve heard so far come out of Milwaukee and Los Angeles. Milwaukee appears to be the front runner out of the many teams supposedly scouting Sabathia this month. It sounds like the Tribe may get a stud prospect or two after all. I’m going to wait and see how the rumors play out, but look for a possible announcement from the team next week.

2.) Play Andy Marte for the rest of the season

I don’t care if it’s at DH or third base, Wedge needs to play Marte NOW. If Shapiro has to twist Wedge’s arm to make this happen, that’s just fine with me. Marte has no minor league options left and has accumulated a grand total of 164, 57, and 55 at-bats with Cleveland over the 2006-2008 seasons.

This is not a fair means of evaluation for any player, let alone a 24 year old that was considered one of the best prospects in the game not too long ago. Blake is not the future, but there’s a strong possibility Marte is. If the poor kid doesn’t get called off the bench soon, he may just go all Shawn Chacon on Wedgie.

3.) Get rid of Borowski

Borowski was designated for assignment today, since the team doesn’t have to pretend it needs him closing out games anymore. I appreciate the solid 45 save season he gave us last year, but his time with Cleveland should have ended well before now.

4.) Dump Dellucci

Please?

5.) Trade Casey Blake

Again, I appreciate the past contributions, but we’re not talking about Todd Helton or Ken Griffey here, this is the type of player that you trade when you’re out of contention. Consider Casey’s $6.1 mil expiring contract, age, and the fact that we have Andy Marte rotting on the bench and that’s reason enough to trade him in my opinion.

There are plenty of contending teams that could use a super-utility man like Blake and his value has likely peaked for this season. Blake posted an OPS of .670 and .691 for April and May, respectively. Unless you think he can sustain a .954 OPS on a .420 BAbip beyond the month of June (he can’t) I say trade him while might be of value.

6.) Hold tryouts for the 2009 closer position

I’ve said before that I think Jensen Lewis and Masahide Kobayashi are the strongest contenders for closer next year. This may be a bit tricky though, as both pitchers are having trouble adapting to their recent increase in innings and will need to be handled carefully.

Lewis pitched 81 innings between AA, AAA, and the Majors in 2007. The last time he threw that many innings in a season was 2006 when he was still a starter at Kinston. Kobayashi averaged just 48 IP over the last three years in the shortened, 144 game Pro Yakyu season. Kobayashi has already logged 41 innings for Cleveland so far.

7.) Give Hafner and Martinez as much time as they need to heal

It's pretty much a lock that we won't see these two suit up again until they're 100% healthy. As I've said before, I think having Hafner sit out this season to fix his weakened shoulder and any holes in his swing will greatly benefit the team in the long run. Ditto for Martinez, whose choice to play through intense pain was admirable, but it's time to get that elbow permanently healthy.

Parting Ways

I'm not exactly known for my optimism when it comes to the Indians, but I've been forcing myself all off-season to believe Sabathia would sign a contract extension before Spring Training. The odds of that happening took a near fatal blow yesterday as Sabathia posted an announcement on his official website that contract negotiations would be called off until after the 2008 season. Here's the meat of the announcement:

There will be time after the season for the Indians and my representatives to discuss my contract status. I remain hopeful that these discussions will result in a contract extension that will keep me with the franchise for many years to come. In the meantime, in order to avoid any distractions, my representatives and I will not make any further comment about my contractual situation beyond this statement.

First off, why was this announcement made through Sabathia's website and not as an official press release on the team website? According to Anthony Castrovince, "Shortly before he posted a message on his official Web site Wednesday night, [Sabathia] told the Indians what he was about to tell the rest of the world." That alone indicates a significant breakdown in negotiations, as if Sabathia's party had left Shapiro hanging in limbo much earlier. The situation is bad enough as it is, but it seems awfully suspect when a player informs a team he's breaking off negotiations at the same time he makes a public announcement on his own. That's not in line with how the Tribe usually does business and makes this sound even worse.

I don't think the way Westbrook and Hafner's negotiations were renewed and finalized after the regular season started are a valid comparison to Sabathia's situation. According to Shapiro, "there's not a lot of common ground" between the Tribe and Sabathia right now. Westbrook and Hafner were much closer to agreeing on the contracts' terms by the time the season started, thus making it possible for a quick resolution. If Sabathia were open to negotiating during the season (he's not), it would probably drag on for most of the season, at least.

Sabathia says extending negotiations into the season would be a distraction, but lets be honest here: his presence at the bargaining table has been minimal so far. Sabathia's agents are the ones doing the negotiating, so what kind of distraction is he referring to? I'm willing to question if Sabathia has even discussed his contract with Shapiro in person at this point. If both sides were still dedicated to getting a deal done, you can bet talks would have extended until April.

Frankly, I'm tired of all the BS being thrown around. Sabathia has said all the right things and maintained a positive demeanor throughout the off-season, but it's now perfectly clear that whatever loyalty he may have had to Cleveland is gone. I'm not saying Sabathia should have blindly taken the first contract put on the table, although reports indicate it was comparable to those of Roy Oswalt, Mark Buehrle, and Jake Peavy (5 years at $17-18 mil a year, including 2008). My point is that even with all the fluffy sound bites being leaked from both parties, the drive to reach a compromise has clearly died.

From a business standpoint, Sabathia is subjecting himself to significant risk in waiting until free agency. Jay at LGT sums up the gamble Sabathia is taking in snubbing the Tribe's offer:

There is no conceivable reason why he wouldn't instruct his attorneys to strike the best deal possible right now. At this moment, his value is at its peak, and he faces significant risk of a devaluing (or even career-ending) injury in the coming year. He simply stands far more to gain by re-signing with the Indians now rather than doing so at the end of the season, and the Indians' bottom line is not going to move much in that time. The inescapable conclusion, therefore, is that he does not intend to settle for a shorter contractual commitment with the Indians, now or at any future point.

I agree, in that Sabathia's value is at its peak and he is taking a big risk on being healthy at the end of the season. Jay is also correct in stating that the team's offer is not likely to change much in the future. It would have been foolish for Shapiro to not put the best offer on the table during the team's last shot at exclusive negotiations with its ace pitcher.

The only comparable value Cleveland will take from retaining Sabathia in his final year is that it vastly improves their chances at a deep playoff run. There is no reliable option to replace Sabathia's slot in the rotation this season (I'm citing Carmona's one full season and Miller's inability to stay healthy). Given the paltry returns for Minnesota in the Santana trade, the Indians stand little chance of getting a potential ace, like Phil Hughes, in return. The loaded trade offers Boston and New York were advertising earlier are long gone. Despite his "no-trade" stance on Sabathia, Shapiro should at least be listening to offers now. Just don't expect an offer to come along that will help the team win in 2008.

The Tribe made a generous contract offer; one of the largest in team history, yet it was not enough to even keep negotiations alive. Has anyone heard of a counter-offer from Sabathia's agents? There's no loyalty to be had at this point, it's all about the money. I'd also like to go on the record as saying Sabathia does not care about winning. He can't possibly care about winning a championship; where is he going to sign that will give him a better chance than the elite team Cleveland is fielding right now? New York? Boston? LA? They have the money, but Cleveland has shown it can meet or exceed the talent of any team in baseball.

So why don't you stop hiding behind your agents, man up, and tell us what you really want C.C.?

Suck It, Steinbrenner: Santana Goes to Queens

It appears Johan Santana will be pitching in the National League for the foreseeable future. Minnesota will trade their ace to the New York Mets for minor league outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey. The Mets have until Friday at 5pm to complete a contract extension with Santana or the trade is void.

I'm not sure who benefits the most here: the Mets or the teams involved in an arms race with the Yanks and the Sox. Cleveland is just one of many AL contenders who no longer have to worry about Santana standing in their way in the playoffs for the next six years. Was anyone else sweating the idea of the best pitcher in baseball getting run support from New York or Boston instead of the anemic Twins?

The dangerous part is that Santana's AL East suitors are built to win now and probably would have guaranteed themselves another championship in acquiring the crown jewel of Minnesota. I may be overestimating the robustness of New York and Boston's farm systems, since each team must have hit their talent threshold for this deal not to go down earlier. I'm fairly confident both teams could have taken a substantial loss in prospects and still be playoff-ready for the next several years anyway.

The funny part is few media outlets were even discussing the Mets as a major player. Minaya was able to swoop in after everyone else had given up and vault his team to the top of the heap in the National League. Keith Law points out that besides giving the Mets a legit ace again (Pedro's health is still unclear), it takes the pressure off John Maine and Oliver Perez and allows them to move down to a more appropriate spot in the rotation. Law breaks down the prospects the Mets shipped out and doesn't come away too impressed. At first glance, I'd agree that the Mets had the lesser trade package in terms of the amount of "raw" talent and lack of major league-ready prospects involved.

Judging by the way the deal went down, I'd guess Minnesota may have ended up with a lesser package than originally advertised if they stuck with the Yanks or the Sox (maybe negotiations went south after their initial snub) and decided to cut their losses by sending Santana to Queens. Tribe fans owe Omar Minaya for removing one less obstacle for Cleveland next season, both in the Central and the playoff field.

In regards to a potential Sabathia trade, the lack of blockbuster prospects in the Santana trade is troubling. I honestly thought the Twins would walk away with a Phil Hughes-Ian Kennedy type deal, but ended up with AA baller Carlos Gomez and company. Judging by Shapiro's recent comments though, a Sabathia trade seems to be a remote possibility now:

I don't see us ever closing the door, there's no reason to do it. Even if he files for free agency, I still think we'll be an active player.

I had been an early advocate of trading Sabathia if the Front Office was certain a deal couldn't get done, but I suppose Shap's stance is somewhat encouraging. Either the contract negotiations are making positive strides or that's Shapiro Speak for "we need C.C. to win in 2008, so stop asking."

The fun part comes when Santana's new contract leaks out. Hopefully Sabathia doesn't get any ideas from his fellow lefty or that negotiating table is going to get a lot longer overnight.

Finally...

I kinda dropped the ball on the Betancourt extension, but I think it may end up as the Tribe's most significant move of the offseason. Raffy signed a two year extension with a club option for 2010. According to the Indians' website, "Betancourt will make $5.4 million over the two guaranteed years in the deal, and the option is worth another $5 million. Without revealing the details, Shapiro said the contract includes bonuses, should Betancourt ever take over as the Indians' closer."

Not that Betancourt was going anywhere soon, but he has as much potential to be the team's closer as anyone once Borowski's contract runs out after this season. Bullpen performance is hard to project (see 2006), but Cleveland has the depth to handle the late innings in a pinch, with Betancourt, Kobayashi, Lewis, and Perez under team control until 2010.

With all the crazy contracts being thrown at mediocre relievers these days, locking up Betancourt for $5 mil a year is the definition of a bargain. The three-year option setup also leaves the club with minimum risk, given the volatile nature of relief pitching (/knocks on wood). Overall an excellent contract for the Tribe.

Contract Roundup

All three Cleveland teams were busy negotiating or finalizing contract extensions for key personnel this week, so I thought it would be useful to recap this week's transactions:

The Crooked Cap

Just so there's no confusion, Sabathia did not sign a contract extension this week. Negotiations are still ongoing between the Front Office and Sabathia's agent. Word on the street is that the Tribe has placed a four year contract with an option year on the table. No monetary values were provided, but a lot of fans have been pointing to the number of years as the potential snag for both parties up to this point.

The Diatriber countered with a comprehensive breakdown of pitchers awarded five year-plus contracts in the past and how those pitchers fared for their team(s). The article makes for a very interesting read; I hadn't realized just how spectacularly bad some of those hefty contracts were (my favorite one is Mike Hampton, I honestly don't know how the man can sleep peacefully). According to the article, only "[seventeen contracts] have been signed by starting pitchers for 5 years or more in the last 10 years, only six for 6 years or more, and merely three for 7 years or more." Most of those signings ended up as poor investments as the pitchers succumbed to age, chronic injury, or just plain stunk for the duration of the contract.

It's difficult to comprehend how Major League GM's continue to get sucked into this vortex of stupidity where 7-year contracts even enter the discussion. Actually, I'll just go ahead and say it: Brian Sabean, is a moron. The unfortunate part is that a ridiculous contract like Barry Zito's can cause a ripple effect in the pitching market, causing guys like Santana and Sabathia to expect no less than five years per contract.

Obviously, there isn't a single team that wouldn't like to have an ace of that caliber, but the team is paying more than just a salary. They're taking on a certain amount of risk as well and when the stakes (payroll flexibility, health, etc.) are so high, teams have to protect themselves. Taking on a player for a guaranteed four years is risky enough, but seven? How does an agent even ask for that kind of contract with a straight face?

I understand the pitcher is looking for the best job security possible and a long contract is their insurance against injury or a poor season. Before I go off on a tangent here, I guess the bottom line of any discussion about contracts is risk. Some team's can afford to take on more risk (read: years and money) and gain a competitive advantage when recruiting free agents. As long as some nutty GM thinks believes its worth rolling the dice on a potential stud pitcher, players will keep seeking them out. Fortunately these contracts do not have as much of a precedent as some agents would like you to believe; not yet anyway.

As far as Sabathia is concerned, I think he should take a long, hard look at the contracts Carlos Zambrano (5 years plus option, $91 mil) and Jake Peavy (4 years plus option, $14.5 mil) signed recently. Peavy's contract is a true hometown discount and I wouldn't expect Shapiro to low-ball C.C. with that kind of salary. Zambrano's may be close to Cleveland's ceiling for Sabathia. It's important to remember that Zambrano was in his walk year when he signed the contract mid-season and expressed interest in staying with Chicago.

If Cleveland offers Sabathia Zambrano's deal and he turns it down?

Trade him.

If it were up to me, I'd give Sabathia a deadline before Spring Training to get this extension done. If he truly wants to stay in Cleveland, he'll make some concessions (like Zambrano and Peavy did) to stay here, be it a little less money or one less guaranteed year. He'll get paid, no doubt about that, but if he wants to play games with this and wait until the last minute where the Tribe may get nothing in return if/when he walks then I'd ship him out for a cost-controlled replacement, like Phil Hughes, in a heartbeat.

Cleveland does have other options to take Sabathia's place, but once you start bringing Adam Miller and Fausto Carmona into the "ace" discussion, the future becomes a bit hazy. Miller has yet to throw a pitch in the Majors and has had a few injuries slow down his development already. Carmona may very well develop into an ace, but I doubt Shapiro and Wedge would want to place the burden of anchoring the rotation on either young pitcher just yet.

Coach Brown Gets a Raise

The Cavs inked head coach Mike Brown to a two year contract extension through the 2010-2011 season. Official numbers haven't been released yet, but according to Brian Windhorst, Brown will see his current $2 million salary jump to $4 million in addition to the two extra years being tacked onto his old contract.

I've always been a fan of Brown's defense-first philosophy and think he's done a great job keeping the team together this season despite all the contract B.S. and injuries. Brown's track record has been outstanding: two straight 50-win seasons, four playoff series wins in two appearances, and a franchise best .592 win percentage since 2005.

I was a little concerned Brown may take the fall if things turned ugly following the team's championship run last season. Apparently the Cavs' Front Office got something right this year as they reward Brown's solid work thus far.

In the meantime, Cleveland has won 8 of their last 10 games, including road wins in Dallas, New Orleans, Toronto, and San Antonio.

The Browns

Head Coach Romeo Crennel and starting QB Derek Anderson are in line for new contracts this off-season. No specifics have been released while preliminary negotiations take place. I don't have much of an opinion on Crennel, but I am glad to see a head coach for the Browns finally pan out. If the Front Office and players have faith in Crennel, then that's good enough for me. Stability often gets overlooked in pro sports, but the extension is a good move to take pressure off the coaching staff and their players.

Re-upping Anderson makes perfect sense to me, although I'm sure a lot of fans are itching to get those Brady Quinn jerseys out in the open. The success of Anderson last season allows the Browns to take a slow approach to breaking in Quinn and may leave them with a tough decision depending on how 2008 plays out. Look for either Quinn or Anderson to get shipped out of town by the end of next season. For now, the Browns can afford to bide their time and evaluate their options at QB.

Bringing back first-year offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski didn't make a big splash, but could prove to be just as important as Crennel's contract. Chudzinski maximized his resources in Anderson, Edwards, and Lewis and molded Cleveland into an elite offensive unit. It would have been a shame to see him leave for Baltimore's head coaching vacancy after just one year of running his offensive juggernaut. Cleveland was smart to get Chudzinski's extension wrapped up quick because Baltimore had been knocking on the door.

The Browns are also exploring an extension for running back Jamal Lewis and his 1,304 rushing yards this season.

Finally...

Just in case you missed out on Tony Lastoria's Top 50 Prospects list for the Tribe, check out the link here. If you're like me and have always wanted to learn more about the Tribe's farm system, this is a great place to start. It's really an impressive piece of work and deserves all the praise it's received around the blog-o-sphere.

Super-Delayed Shapiro Conference Impressions

The press conference may be over a week old, but whenever Shapiro addresses the media it’s worth discussing. Here’s what I got out of his State of the Tribe conference:

Trot and Kenny are Gone

The language Shapiro used while discussing Trot Nixon and Kenny Lofton made it sound like neither player would be returning for 2008. Shapiro cited Nixon’s leadership role as his greatest contribution to the Tribe. Fans have been hearing about Nixon’s mentoring all season, not to mention the rally pies. Obviously Nixon struggled in the field this season, but I think his off-the-field contributions made a bigger impact than fans truly realize.

Listening to Shapiro and Wedge discuss Nixon’s role so prominently only reinforces my assumption. Referring to Nixon, Shapiro said "whether he's here or not, [he’s] going to make a lasting impact on this team." In other words, Shapiro knew (roughly) what he was getting as far as Nixon’s potential contributions and it sounds like he was satisfied with the team’s “investment.” Shapiro also compared Nixon’s influence to that of Kevin Millwood on a young pitching staff in 2005.

Now that the Tribe is battle-tested in the playoffs and more youngsters are scheduled to arrive from Buffalo, Nixon’s imminent release shouldn't come as a surprise. Lofton’s release may have been disheartening to many fans, though. I’m a big Lofton fan, but I think the decision to let him walk is the correct one. Lofton’s endurance and possible decline in performance are legitimate questions, even though Lofton had a successful campaign at age 40. The Tribe has too many young outfielders who either deserve a shot or are at least as good as a healthy Lofton would be. Lofton filed for free agency on Tuesday; he made $6 million last year.

Roster Stability

Cleveland is in a rare and enviable position this off-season. Every player on the roster is potentially under team control for 2008, excluding free agents Nixon, Lofton, and Chris Gomez.

Shapiro made a strong suggestion that Cleveland would pick up Joe Borowski’s $4 million option, but still left the door open for other options. Those other options are a near lock to come from within the organization, as the closer options through a trade or signing are bleak. If Borowski stays on for a role other than closer, Betancourt is the obvious choice to succeed him. Chances are Wedge would be pitching Raffy and Joe in the 8^th and 9^th no matter what the order, so why make any change at all? Despite each pitcher's ability, disrupting the comfort they have in their respective roles could backfire. Perez and Lewis have an outside shot at closer, but I honestly don’t see Borowski losing the closer job if brought back.

Aaron Fultz will likely be brought back as well, providing extra depth and a veteran alternative to any rookies in the bullpen for 2008.

Shapiro’s stated "free agen[cy] by nature is so inefficient,” dropping yet another hint that he will be ultra-conservative over the winter. My guess is the biggest splash Shapiro makes in free agency is picking up a Fultzian reliever to add another layer of security to the bullpen. The team has certainly learned its lesson in gambling with the bullpen; the more options available, the better.

Interestingly enough, Shapiro cited Lewis and Perez as “on the radar” in 2007. I think it’s safe to say few fans were expecting those guys to make such an impact, but apparently Shapiro had them listed as legit options. With all the pitching depth in the minors, look for a couple other guys to come out of nowhere in the bullpen again next season.

Position Battles

Spring Training 2008 will feature three major position battles; much more exciting than the Inglett-Luna-Rouse free-for-all featured in 2007. Secondbase is the most significant, in my opinion, as it could indirectly determine the future of Marte and Barfield with the Tribe. I see both guys making the roster, but their roles and subsequent evaluations are unclear.

Shapiro explicitly mentioned upstart Asdrubal Cabrera as having a “prominent role” on the team in ’08. He wouldn’t explain what that role was yet, laying the foundation for a whole winter’s worth of fan speculation and analysis....thanks, Mark! I’ll be going into greater detail on the Tribe’s infield in a later article.

Left field and the fifth rotation slot are also a logjam this off-season. Choo was explicitly mentioned during the conference, with Ben Francisco, Jason Michaels, and David Dellucci rounding out left. This is assuming Gutz starts in right full-time, of course. Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, and Adam Miller are the main competitors in the rotation. I purposely left off Lee because I’m convinced he’ll be traded soon (and he stinks).

Sabathia’s Contract

Shapiro’s comments on Sabathia were one of the few concrete answers given. He indicated the goal was to have Sabathia's contract situation settled by the start of spring training. Shapiro made it clear he doesn't like to set specific timetables (see the surprise, mid-season contract extensions this year as proof), leaving the option open for a longer negotiating window. I think it will be difficult for Shapiro to negotiate with Sabathia once the season starts, unless the two sides are close to a deal. Sabathia has stated in the past that he doesn’t like to negotiate during the season.

With a short shopping list and few contracts to wrangle, Sabathia will benefit from the full attention of the front office this winter. If Sabathia truly wants to stay with Cleveland, I think we’ll hear a deal announced before April. The ownership has shown a strong commitment to increasing payroll and extending core players (Hafner and Westbrook), so C.C. should be no exception. Shapiro will likely have the green light and funding from Dolan to be aggressive, but if Sabathia wants too many years or just doesn’t feel the desire to stay, the California native will likely head to the West Coast.

Alex Rodriguez may play a minor role in Sabathia’s plans for ’09. The Dodgers and Angels are both rumored to be front runners for Rodriguez’s services this year. Signing Rodriguez could potentially make a serious dent in either team’s free agent coffer, making an already expensive Sabathia less attractive in a stacked ’09 pitching market.

Aces Wild

I haven’t posted much lately, as the last week or so has been pretty rough. To be honest, I still don’t have much of a taste for baseball right now, which is an extremely rare occurrence for me. I can’t even watch the World Series, it’s just too painful. Plus, it already looks like the Colorado Flameouts are going to roll over for the Boston Yankees anyway, so it’s not like I’m missing anything special. My initial reaction after Cleveland played its final game of the season certainly included anger, sadness, and all the like. The most prominent feeling was that of loss; as if something had been taken from me. It was a hollow feeling.

Despite all the pain left over from last week, the sting has subsided considerably. First off, my expectations going in were realistic, at best. I viewed the ALCS as a near even match up, hinging on the performance of a few select players. It’s hard to swallow a loss that could have easily swung to either team, but it doesn’t make any sense to dwell on a proverbial coin flip.

Boston was every bit as good as Cleveland going in, maybe a little better. The fact that Cleveland was such a large underdog was pure media hype; both teams featured similar traits and achieved near equal success before their meeting. The series went seven games for a reason. Yes, Cleveland won three in a row, pushing Boston to the brink. But just as Cleveland proved it could win three, so did Boston. There was nothing magical about Boston’s comeback. The timing was the thing. What if the roles were reversed and Cleveland came back from three down to win it? Would that be considered “clutch” play by Cleveland or a “choke” by Boston? It depends on who you ask. As I said, this series was a coin flip.

You may be wondering when I’m going to cut the philosophical, intangible slant. Well, that was just for a bit of perspective. One of the key factors that shifted the balance of power came down to two players: Sabathia and Carmona. Sabathia had been far from his usual self in Game 1 of the Division Series, while Carmona was absolutely brilliant. Fans took the optimistic view that Sabathia would bounce back and Carmona would carry his dominance into the ALCS; both fair assumptions. Obviously, neither came true and it killed the Tribe’s chances. Below are the ALCS stats for the two pitchers:

Game	Player	Team Result	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	HR	Pitches-Strikes	GB-FB Outs
ALCS Game 1	Sabathia	Loss	4.1	7	8	5	3	0	85-44	4-3
ALCS Game 5		Loss	6	10	4	2	6	1	112-70	7-2

Game	Player	Team Result	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	HR	Pitches-Strikes	GB-FB Outs
ALCS Game 2	Carmona	Win	4	4	4	5	5	2	100-51	4-2
ALCS Game 6		Loss	2	6	7	4	2	1	63-33	2-1

Cleveland went 1-3 with their two best starting pitchers on the mound. Carmona did not factor into the decision for the single win, since his one run lead evaporated shortly after his departure in the 4^th inning. The sole fact that Cleveland lost three of the four is not the overarching issue. Beckett and Schilling faced off against Sabathia and Carmona twice respectively, so it’s not as if the Tribe folded to a couple of patsies in those games.

The issue is the individual performance of Sabathia and Carmona in the series. Cleveland’s chances of winning Games 1 and 6 were slim to none after the mess (to put it politely) C.C. and Fausto left behind. Granted, the offense had its share of struggles, but the fact that the offense never had a shot to win Games 1 and 6 is obvious. I believe momentum and a team’s confidence are factors in the playoffs and Sabathia and Carmona made every start an uphill battle for the rest of the team.

By failing to adapt to Boston’s lineup (or contain Ramirez and Ortiz), C.C. and Fausto set themselves up for failure. If their plan of attack wasn’t failing them, their lack of command and dominant pitches were. The two pitchers gave up nearly a walk per inning pitched, combined. Allowing so many batters to reach base gave each start a tension that had to have worn on the pitchers. Even when Carmona and Sabathia gave up only four runs, Games 2 and 5 felt like they were just a bloop single away from disaster; the two were that shaky.

The inability go at least six (or even five, I’m not picky) innings placed all four games in the hands of the bullpen. The Cleveland bullpen is great, but Sabathia and Carmona placed a daunting task before the bullpen each night. The bullpen should not be expected to take on the job of the starting pitcher in four, high pressure games like that. Actually, scratch that, two of the games were blowouts, so I guess that relieves some of the pressure. Still, the bullpen was overworked. When a team’s setup man comes out for two innings in the middle of the game, someone didn’t do their job.

Cleveland led only once (in Game 2), allowing Boston’s pitchers to be more aggressive and take more chances. The pressure was always on the offense to catch up, as if facing Beckett and Schilling weren’t difficult enough already. The offense certainly missed some opportunities to break out against Boston’s pitching in these games, but Sabathia and Carmona did not provide the contributions Cleveland needed to keep up with Boston.

In such an even match up, Cleveland needed every advantage it could get. Sabathia and Carmona were supposed to be the advantage, outside of the Tribe’s bullpen, but they came up well short of what was required to win.

This does not change the fact that Sabathia and Carmona were as good a reason as any that Cleveland made the playoffs in the first place. It also doesn’t change the fact that Carmona owns one of the all-time great postseason pitching performances by an Indians pitcher, single-handedly winning a pivotal Game 2 against New York. When Tribe fans debate the 2007 ALCS though, Sabathia and Carmona should shoulder a significant part of the burden.

I don’t plan on fuming about the playoffs any more this season, so in my next post I’ll finally get around to Shap’s press conference and look back on some of the highlights from a great season.