Showing posts with label ALDS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ALDS. Show all posts

Monday, October 8, 2007

WAHOO!

Just when it looked like New York might have regained their footing in the series, the Tribe dropped the hammer. Game 3 and all its quirks aside, the Tribe simply dominated the competition en route to its first ALCS berth since 1998.

Grady Sizemore and Jhonny Peralta led a devastating offense, Fausto Carmona and Raffy Perez single handily won Game 2, and the Cobra dealt the fatal blow in Game 4.

Seriously, Paul Byrd is a maniac. In a good way, though.


Wedgie made some mistakes in his first playoff series, but did a brilliant job compared to Joe Torre. Yes, Eric Wedge out-managed Joe Torre in the ALDS and it may have been one of the deciding factors of the series.

And of course, Borowski saved the best for last, nearly giving an entire fanbase a heart attack in the process. Hey, no complaints here; whatever it takes.

It looks like great pitching really does beat great hitting, as the best of the Tribe's pitching staff shut down the dreaded Yankee offense. Run support won't be so easy to come by in the next round though. Boston has the only pitching staff capable of matching Cleveland's top-to-bottom. What do you get when you combine two of the best pitching staffs with two of the best lineups in baseball? One hell of a series. Hold on Tribe fans, this should be fun.

Until the fateful series, this Cleveland team bows to no one. Not even the Evil Empire.


I'll take a look back at the ALDS and look ahead to Beantown in this week's posts, so check back before the ALCS for more Tribe Time.

Sunday, October 7, 2007

Gloves Off

Indians! What is your profession? HA-OOH!
-
Travis Hafner, after Cleveland clinched the 2007 AL Central crown

This isn't over. Not even close. If those overpaid, pompous, mercenaries over in New York think they're going to take this series back they're wrong.

Cleveland's pitching holds the key and they are primed to let loose in Game 4 (and 5 if need be). Some may argue New York has stolen all the momentum and have Cleveland exactly where they want them. Because it's just that easy isn't it? This isn't the same Tribe that fell apart under the bright lights of their 2005 playoff run. In fact, they've thrived up to this point in the playoffs.

These Cleveland players aren't just going to roll over for the Yankees; they've worked too hard and overcome too much to have it taken from them so easily. All Game 3 accomplished was allow Cleveland's bullpen to recover and give New York a smug false confidence. We have them on the run now, no one can beat the mighty Yankees! Yeah, I don't think so.

The Cobra

Byrd owns a 3.46 career ERA in four regular season starts at Yankee Stadium, so he has had at least some semblance of success pitching in New York. Byrd also has a 3.44 career road ERA compared to a 4.84 home ERA. Westbrook's history against New York was fairly shaky by comparison with a 5.29 career ERA against New York. Hopefully, Byrd can translate his past experience in these situations into something the Tribe can work with in Game 4.

It's also of note that Byrd was the only member of the Angels' pitching staff to beat the red-hot White Sox in the 2005 ALCS. Byrd pitched two games, giving up just 4 ER over 10.2 IP. That's essentially what Cleveland will need out of him in Game 4. The 2005 Sox fielded a very tough offense, so it's reassuring to know Byrd is capable of shutting down a premier offense when it counts.

Byrd's glaring weakness is his vulnerability to the longball. If Byrd can keep his walk rate low, he will go a long way in protecting himself against potential homerun damage. New York's lineup is patient, but if Byrd can locate his pitches, that 1.31 BB/9 rate should at least make a dent in the Yank's OBP.

Byrd only needs to throw 5 or 6 quality innings to put the Tribe in a position to win Game 4. The fully rested bullpen can take it from there.

The Wang

I'm not sure whether or not Joe Torre planned on using Wang on three days rest for Game 4, but he's stuck with him now that Hughes was used to rescue Clemens in Game 3. Since I cited them for Byrd above, it's only fair that I point out Wang's 3.02 home and 4.62 away ERA. I'm not sure how much his ERA splits will help him in this case though, as he was hardly fooling anyone in the Cleveland lineup during Game 1.

Wang went 4.2 innings and gave up 8 ER. The Tribe effectively neutralized his greatest strength, the groundball. Wang has also never pitched on three days rest in his career. That's a lot of question marks surrounding a pitcher who is supposed to be the ace of the staff. Wang's performance is really the key to Game 4, as no one seems to know what it will be. If the Tribe was able to solve Wang once, they should be able to do it again after some counter-adjustments to their original approach.

The Raffys

Wedge may have made some questionable moves in Game 3 (like leaving Westbrook in too long and using Fultz for the 6th inning instead of Lewis), but he was right to save Betancourt and Perez following Damon's game-changing shot off Westbrook. Perez has pitched 4 brilliant innings over Games 1 and 2 and could have used a break. Betancourt only threw an inning in Game 1, but will be fresh for Game 4.

If the game is close and late, look for one of these guys to enter the game in lieu of Borowski, who pitched the final inning tonight. I know Borowski is the official closer, but I think Wedge was doing more than just giving him work in Game 3. I think either Perez or Betancourt will be the go-to guys in a tight situation for the remainder of the series. There's just too much at stake and Perez has proven he won't fold under the pressure of a playoff game.

Jensen Lewis tossed an inning of relief today, but has just two innings in all three games. Lewis should be available for the 5th and 6th, if necessary. He's given up nothing, while striking out 4 in those two innings. Add that to his .69 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 13 September innings and I can confidently say Lewis should (and will) be the first option for middle relief.

If Byrd can go at least five innings and keep the runs at a minimum, the Tribe will have a very strong trio to cover the last four innings. Just as Wang is the key for New York, Byrd getting the game intact to the relief corps is Cleveland's.

Fausto is the Projected Game 5 Starter






Illustration by CarnegieAndOntario at LGT
















Need I say more?

Saturday, October 6, 2007

ALDS Impressions: Games 1 & 2

Cleveland utilized its entire arsenal to take the first two ALDS games from the Yankees this weekend. Game 1 featured an explosion from the offense, while Game 2 was all about Fausto and Raffy the Lefty. For Cleveland, winning both games before heading to the Bronx Zoo is huge, as it removes the chance of New York clinching at home and shifts some of the pressure away from the Tribe. Hopefully, winning the pivotal second game will allow the offense to loosen up against the lesser pitchers in New York's rotation. Game 3 pits Jake Westbrook against The Firecracker at New York on Sunday. Until then, here are my thoughts on the first two ALDS games:

Game 1: Sabathia vs. Wang


This was kind of a bizarre game, as neither ace performed anywhere near their usual standards. I'm not sure what to make of Sabathia's start. C.C. only gave up 4 hits and three earned runs, but really struggled with his control. Sabathia went just 5 innings on 114 pitches, walking 6 and striking out 5. During the regular season, C.C. had a ridiculous strikeout to walk ratio of 5.64. In Game 1, that ratio was 1.2 K/BB; more than just a regression to the mean against a tough lineup.

One issue I noticed was C.C. had trouble hitting the outside edge of the plate consistently. Bruce Froemming called a consistent strikezone for both teams, but Sabathia's sweeping pitches that normally have hitters whiffing wide over the plate either weren't enticing enough to the disciplined Yanks or weren't falling in for a strike. Sabathia's inability to pound the strikezone (just 54% of his pitches were strikes) caused him to fall behind many hitters early and put him in some tough jams. I have to give C.C. some dap for cleaning up after himself though, as he only gave up one run at a time. His strikeout of Jorge Posada in the fifth with the bases loaded preserved the Tribe's one-run lead, giving his team a shot to win (bottom of the fifth, not withstanding).

So what was wrong with Sabathia? Well, facing the Yankees lineup and their AL best, .366 OBP was bound to inflate Sabathia's walk rate at least a little, but I think the main issue with Sabathia's control was nerves. Some may be quick to dismiss a comparison of the stoic, mature C.C. of 2007 with the young, inexperienced hurler of 2001 (coincidentally, he pitched just slightly better against Seattle as a rookie). It would be perfectly normal for Sabathia to be affected by his nerves in only his second career postseason start. Pressure affects a lot of normally strong pitchers (most recently, Jake Peavy and Tom Glavine) and I think Sabathia was just a victim of poor focus.

My prediction is that C.C. will be locked in for his next start (be it against NY or another team). He's got too much talent and determination to let pressure affect him for very long.

The real story in Game 1 was the Tribe's destruction of Chien Ming Wang. Wang was [insert inappropriate adjective here] removed after giving up 8 ER on 9 H and 4 BB in just 4.2 IP. Kenny Lofton led the attack with 3 hits, a run, and 4 RBI. Victor and Garko combined on 6 H, 5 R, and 4 RBI to round out the offense. Cleveland showed how dangerous their power-laden lineup can be by launching four taters; two off groundball specialist, Wang.

Whatever Wang was doing in Game 1 wasn't fooling the Tribe batters. Cleveland took a steady approach and didn't try and do too much with the ball. By consistently going with the pitch, Cleveland kept Wang out of his element (5 GB-5 FB outs) and was able to put up crooked numbers in the first and fifth innings, chasing New York's ace early.

Bullpen stalwarts Perez, Lewis, and Betancourt combined on 1 hit ball over the final 4 innings.

Game 2: Carmona vs. Pettitte

Intense. That's how I would sum up Game 2 in a single word. Fausto Carmona pitched the game of his life, in October, against the best offense in baseball. Brilliant. Superb. Alucinante. Whatever you want to call it, Carmona's Game 2 stands as one of the greatest games I've ever watched live and ranks among the greatest postseason starts by a Cleveland pitcher. I try not to be too much of a homer on this blog, but anyone who disputes the outright awesomeness of this game is either a Yankee fan or has no appreciation for the sport.

Here is Carmona's stat line from Game 2:

IP H ER BB SO HR ERA
9 3 1 2 5 1 1.00

Carmona never allowed more than one baserunner in an inning and scattered his three hits and 2 BB over separate innings. Carmona struck out Damon and Jeter twice each. He struck out Rodriguez thrice. Cano and Rodriguez did not advance from the batters box all night (Perez with the assist here). Despite utilizing a wide array of filthy breaking pitches, Fausto threw 67.5% of those 114 pitches for strikes. Carmona also had 18 groundball outs and 2 doubleplays on the night.

Fausto's complete game opus set up a crucial matchup for extra innings. If Carmona had only pitched seven innings, there is a good chance we would have seen Perez and Betancourt during regulation. This means the two best pitchers in the Cleveland bullpen may not have been available beyond the 10th inning. Fausto saving the bullpen gave the Tribe a significant advantage over New York once the game went to extras.

The Yankees didn't have a man in scoring position until Abreu reached on an infield single and stole secondbase in the 9th inning. Fausto Carmona versus Alex Rodriguez. Two of the best players in baseball facing off in a 9th inning, 1-1 tie:

The tempest of Lake Erie gnats was still clouding the field as Mariano Rivera warmed up in the bullpen. Abreu had just reached base on a dribbling, infield single. Carmona's attention was already diverted by the gnats, but now he has to monitor the speedy Abreu at first. Fausto directs his first pitch to the inside of the strikezone, right under Rodriguez's hands.

Rodriguez couldn't get around on Fausto's patented 94 MPH sinker, fouling off the first pitch and swinging over another. Despite a persistent Rodriguez, Fausto and Victor refuse to give in and continue to pound the inside of the plate.

Abreu piles on the drama as he steals second on a ball in the dirt. TBS flashes Rodriguez's April walk-off against the Tribe; a Yankee fan I'm watching the game with predicts a homerun by A-Rod, but I couldn't care less. Rodriguez is starting to get anxious as he chops at a ball heading towards the dirt. The count is loaded as Rodriguez fouls off his fourth pitch of the at-bat.



















The Jacobs Field faithful have risen to their feet long ago. Victor sets up on the inside of the plate, once again. Fausto looks in, winds up and lets it fly. The ball starts over the plate, but makes a sudden break down and away; right where Rodriguez can't get it. The pitch glides into Victor's glove as Rodriguez walks toward the dugout. Beautiful.

Hafner's hit ended the game, but Carmona was really the one who won it, as the offense failed on multiple occasions tonight. It was clear early on that Carmona was going to have to be the one to carry the team tonight, as the offense suffered from a mix of bad luck and poor execution at the plate.

The Tribe's first late scoring opportunity came after Sizemore had led off the 6th inning with a triple. Rookie Asdrubal Cabrera grounded out and Hafner and Martinez struck out swinging to waste the opportunity. Other opportunities included Peralta's one-out double in the 7th and a bases loaded situation in the 8th. I really can't express how frustrating it was to watch these opportunities come and go, but I probably don't have to since a lot of Tribe fans felt the same way.

Wedge tried to compensate for the struggling offense by ordering four sacrifice bunts on the night. They were well-executed bunts, but I'm not sure I agree with the approach. Fortunately, I have more than just bitter hindsight to go on, as AstroCab's sac bunt in the 8th allowed Grady to score on a wild pitch to tie the game.

Raffy Perez pitched his fourth consecutive inning of no-hit, playoff baseball as he matched Mariano Rivera in extra innings, allowing Hafner to take advantage of the Tribe's second bases-loaded situation of the night. Hafner's hit ended the game, but Carmona was really the one who won it, as the offense failed on multiple occasions tonight.

Then of course, there were the bugs. Watching the 8th inning was like watching some kind of divine intervention play out at the Jake. It was as if Nature itself was rooting against the Yankees.

Joba's Kryptonite: Tiny Insects

Now, everyone seems to have an opinion on the bug infestation:

"According to crew chief Bruce Froemming, who spoke to a pool reporter after the game, stopping action because of the bugs never was under consideration." - MLB.com article

"I would have probably pulled us off the field." - Roger Clemens

"The Yankees were acting like there were bullets flying around their heads, not gnats. I mean… this is the big leagues." - Ryan Garko

"It was no different than playing a game in a deluge. Cleveland's pitching was fabulous, but the Yankees must live with knowing that insects helped cause their defeat." - Tom Verducci

"They looked like small Pterodactyls. I don't know. They were there for a while and then they were gone." - Casey Blake

Personally, I think Casey's quote is the best.

I'm really surprised at Tom Verducci, as I normally have a lot of respect for his opinion on baseball matters. He is absolutely wrong in this case. First of all, both teams had to play in identical conditions. It's not like the gnats flew in for half an inning and left; they hung around through the bottom of the 9th, at least.

Second, a "deluge" is not the same as a swarm of gnats. A heavy rain affects the movement of the baseball, which is all that should matter short of something dangerous or physically impeding to the game. Chamberlain and Carmona pitched in the exact same conditions for the 8th. One could handle it, the other couldn't. Simple as that. The bugs weren't even capable of biting anyone, they were just a nuisance. People are acting as if the ump didn't allow time in case one flew into a player's eye (they allowed 10 minutes for bug repellent application, give me a break). Insects should not warrant a delay of game and apparently the crew chief agrees with me on this one.

Third, the idea that such an amazing game will be remembered by most fans as the bug game is absurd. Probably true, but absurd nonetheless. Am I paying way too much attention to this? Of course, but I thought it would be amusing to compare some of the various quotes on the matter. Oh, and Cleveland (not the gnats) won the game, which is also somewhat relevant.

Gark-o-Rama

Ryan Garko has a playoff blog up on the official team website. A lot of the content is typical fluff, but he does offer some interesting insight into pre-game preparation and what some of the players think about during the playoffs. Check it out here.