DeRosa Completes 2009 Infield

The Tribe's 2009 infield appears to be set. Cleveland acquired uber-utilityman Mark DeRosa from the Cubs for Jeff Stevens and two other minor league pitchers on New Years Eve. Unlike Cleveland's three previous trades where a veteran player (Sabathia, Blake, Gutierrez) was dealt to bolster the farm system, the team did not have to give up any established Major Leaguers to fill their infield hole. Word on the street is that Chicago is trying to trim their payroll to bring in a free agent (probably Milton Bradley), although I'm surprised they gave up such a versatile player in DeRosa.

DeRosa is similar to Casey Blake in that he can play solid defense at several positions. He saw most of his starts at second base (80) and the corner outfield positions (53), with a few starts at third (10). He has split the majority of his career between second, third, and short over eleven Major League seasons. DeRosa received limited playing time in his first five seasons, but finally broke through at age 31 with Texas (coincidentally, he was in line for a new contract that year). Rather than level out after securing a new three-year contract, DeRosa developed into a valuable starter for Chicago and posted career highs in homeruns, OBP, and runs scored in 2008.

Mark DeRosa 2006-2008 Seasons

Year	Team	Age	PA	HR	OBP	SLG	OPS+	WS
2006	TEX	31	572	13	.357	.456	108	14
2007	CHC	32	574	10	.371	.420	102	17
2008	CHC	33	593	21	.376	.481	118	23

Last season, DeRosa was tied for third among all starting ML second basemen in OBP (only Utley and Brian Roberts had a better mark). Perhaps even more impressive was that his .376 OBP tied for fifth among all starting ML third basemen as well (only Aramis Ramirez, David Wright, ARod, and Chipper Jone were better). He is projected to bat second in the order, a spot that has been a bit of a revolving door under Manager Eric Wedge (hopefully DeRosa can provide some stability here). I'm pretty optimistic that DeRosa will continue to post strong offensive numbers because his ability to reach base relies heavily on walks, rather than just a high batting average or pure speed. DeRosa had 147 hits in 574 PAs with a .371 OBP in 2007. He was able to boost an already outstanding OBP by five points in 2008, even though he had three fewer hits and 19 more PAs. His pitch selection at the plate has also improved for three straight seasons, with a 0.43, 0.62, and 0.65 BB/K ratio, respectively.

DeRosa's power numbers are expected to decline some due to the switch from Wrigley Field (1.163 HR park factor) to the Jake (.824 HR park factor), but 13-15 homers are certainly possible. With the exception of a freakish spike in homers (21 in 2008, career high of 13 at the notorious Rangers Ballpark in 2006), DeRosa's numbers don't show any of the typical warning signs of an imminent decline. His linedrive percentage has remained steady for the past three seasons (22.3% average) and his 2008 BABIP of .325 was actually very close to his career mark of .320, so it's not like DeRosa was performing any miracles last year.

If Choo ends up as the starting right fielder, DeRosa is a perfect fit to platoon there against left handed pitching. Choo has a career .913 OPS against righties, but has just a .703 OPS against lefties. DeRosa owns an .847 career OPS against lefties. Carroll tends to have more success against left handers as well, making him the logical choice to man third with DeRosa in the outfield. DeRosa also finally gives Cleveland a prototypical second-slot batter with an excellent OBP to follow Sizemore in the lineup. DeRosa's matured patience at the plate, above-average baserunning, versatility on defense, and playoff experience provides the Tribe with a significant upgrade over Jamey Carroll, Andy Marte, and Josh Barfield.

Now, the first thing I thought of when we picked up Mark DeRosa was: didn't we just trade this guy? And what happened to his beard? Personally, I think DeRosa is a better overall player than Blake and I really like this trade. Some fans may be wondering why Cleveland traded away three pitching prospects for a player comparable to Blake though. First, Cleveland got back a ridiculous amount of value for Blake. Twenty-two year old catcher Carlos Santana is an absolute stud in the minors and is the heir apparent to Victor Martinez behind the plate right now (assuming Victor signs beyond 2010 and moves to first base, that would be awesome). As if that wasn't enough for Blake's expiring contract, the Dodgers threw in a young, cheap, future closer candidate in Jon Meloan.

Second, the exclusive negotiating period Cleveland would have had by keeping Blake in a lost season wouldn't have mattered one bit, since the team was never interested in keeping him long-term anyway. I was happy to see Blake get a good contract (he's actually been an above average player for the past five seasons, so he deserved some job security), but he just wasn't a good fit for Cleveland at this point.

Blake ended up with a three year, guaranteed contract worth $17 million (he'll be making $5 mil next year). It's not a stretch to say Cleveland had Blake at his peak and the Dodgers signed the 34 year-old with his most productive seasons behind him. Projected performance aside, there wouldn't have been room for Blake on the roster beyond the 2009 season. Luis Valbuena is a strong candidate to take over second base in a year, which would move Peralta to third. Top third base prospect Wes Hodges is also on track to make an impact by 2010 as well. So if Cleveland had met Blake's demands to fill an urgent need for 2009, they would have basically been stuck with a very expensive bench player once the next wave of young (and more talented) players emerged.

DeRosa is a much better fit for Cleveland because he only has one year left on his contract and is actually half a million cheaper than Blake was in 2008. Cleveland needed to bring in a veteran infielder one way or another so they didn't have to gamble on a rookie infielder or mess with yet another replacement level platoon. Plus, if DeRosa plays well enough to become a Type-A free agent when he walks at the end of the season, Cleveland could quickly recoup the loss of one of the Single-A prospects they traded.

Just for fun, let's compare Cleveland's former third baseman to recent acquisition DeRosa. I added Jamey Carroll to show what the team would have had to settle for if they hadn't of picked up DeRosa, since a platoon of Valbuena and Carroll was really the only viable infield option available in-house (I don't have much faith in Barfield).

Indians Infielders 2008 Stats

Player	Age	PA	HR	OBP	SLG	OPS+	WS	2009 Salary
C. Blake	34	601	21	.345	.463	110	18	$5 mil
M. DeRosa	33	593	21	.376	.481	118	23	$5.5 mil
J. Carroll	34	402	1	.355	.346	85	10	$2.5 mil

DeRosa was significantly better than Blake in every category last season, while Carroll doesn't stand up to either player. In fact, DeRosa's OBP pretty much crushes Blake's over the last two seasons (especially 2008). Blake also trails in OPS+ by eight points and falls just short of DeRosa's average performance the past three seasons (108.3 vs. 109.3 OPS+). Perhaps the best indicator of the type of upgrade Cleveland made at third is the difference in win shares. DeRosa was much more valuable to his team last season, with a five point advantage over Blake in total win shares. I think the team would be more than happy to pay that extra half a million to DeRosa if he can contribute a couple extra wins for 2009.

I don't feel like Cleveland had to give up much to acquire DeRosa from the Cubs. Jeff Stevens is the only player ready to make a contribution at the Major League level, but his role with the club was uncertain in such a crowded bullpen. Meanwhile, the 19 year-old Archer and 23 year-old Gaub seem to have a lot of potential, but are both still developing as players. The way I see it, Cleveland traded away an extra, unproven bullpen arm and two potential relievers who are still multiple years away from contributing (if they ever make it to the Majors) for a low-risk, relatively inexpensive veteran infielder that they absolutely needed.

For more information on the three pitching prospects above, I would highly recommend Tony Lastoria's blog. I seriously wouldn't have had any idea who Archer or Gaub were without Lastoria's scouting reports, so check it out.

Casey Dealt to Dodgers

Super-utility man Casey Blake has been dealt to the Dodgers for two minor leaguers. Cleveland also sent cash to round out the deal to pay for the remainder of Blake's salary (about $2 million). The Dodgers were one of several suitors for Blake including the Rays, Mets, and Phillies. All four teams were looking for a veteran infielder or corner outfielder.

Blake’s immediate value got a boost after New York snagged outfielder Xavier Nady from Pittsburgh on Friday. According to Jayson Stark of ESPN, Blake was the most sought after bat on the market, after Nady.

Blake’s rise in value can be attributed to the amount of competition among contenders for his services and an extended hot streak. The Dodgers had lost faith in their young third basemen, Andy LaRoche and Blake DeWitt, and were looking to upgrade their offense. L.A.’s offense ranks towards the bottom of the National League (13/16 teams) in runs scored.

The 24 year old LaRoche had posted a 68 OPS+ in just 59 AB, while 22 year old rookie DeWitt had a 79 OPS+ in 280 AB (strange that L.A. opted to trade two prospects for a veteran when they never even gave their own young players a chance to play, oh well). The loss of Rafael Furcal and the fragility of Nomar Garciaparra further whittled down their infield’s offensive production.

Blake has been on fire for nearly two months now and will take over at third full-time for the Dodgers. Blake posted a .366 BA, .420 OBP, .535 SLG line with 3 HR in 101 AB for June. As the trade deadline neared Blake stayed hot with a .328 BA, .413 OBP, .594 SLG line with 4 HR in 64 AB for July. Perhaps even more interesting to some teams was Casey’s prowess for bringing in runners this season. Blake has hit .393 with a 1.198 OPS with runners in scoring position and leads Cleveland with 58 RBI.

The downside of acquiring Casey is that he is obviously running hot right now. He will be at least a slight upgrade offensively for the Dodgers’ current options at third, but could cool down significantly by the time the playoffs arrive (.697 career OPS in September/October). Blake is just an average defender at third base, but his offense likely trumps any defensive concerns for the Dodgers.

Blake is wrapping up a one year, $6.1 million contract, but his role with the team next year was uncertain. Moving Blake leaves no competition in Cleveland for Andy Marte and will allow the team to properly evaluate the young third baseman for the remainder of the season.

Cleveland’s third base situation for 2009 could hang heavily on Marte’s performance with rising, 23 year old prospect Wes Hodges not yet in AAA. Jhonny Peralta’s future position may also be impacted by the Blake trade depending on how Marte and Asdrubal Cabrera pan out, but that’s another story.

The Prospects

Cleveland appears to have won this trade no matter which way you slice it. Both prospects seem to have a good ceiling based on their respective peripherals, ages, and positions. John Meloan is a 22-year old pitcher who was converted from a reliever to a starter in AAA this season. 2008 is Meloan’s first stint as a starter, but Rotoworld reports that Cleveland will convert him back to the bullpen. Meloan had a cup of coffee with L.A. in 2007, throwing 7.1 forgettable innings out of the pen.

John Meloan Stats

Year (Level)	Age	ERA	WHIP	IP	K/BB	K9	HR9
2007 (AA)	22	2.18	0.93	45.1	3.88	13.90	0.60
2007 (AAA)	22	1.69	0.98	21.1	2.33	8.86	0.84
2007(MLB)	22	11.05	2.18	7.1	.875	8.59	1.23
2008 (AAA)	23	4.97	1.70	105.0	1.65	8.49	0.60

The fact that the Dodgers wanted to try this guy as a starter speaks to his potential (even if the move doesn’t make a lot of sense), but Meloan’s peripherals would be scary good in a late-inning relief role. As a Class-AAA reliever, Meloan posted a 1.69 ERA, .98 WHIP, and 8.86 K9 rate over 21.1 innings. These numbers are comparable to his time in AA where he had an outstanding 13.90 strikeouts per nine innings to match a 2.18 ERA and .93 WHIP.

Meloan saw a drop off in his K rate between AA and AAA, but his K9 rate held steady from then on. He reportedly has some control issues, as indicated by a worsening K/BB rate at each level, but has managed to lower the number of homers surrendered over this span and is still developing as a pitcher.

According to Paul Cousineau, Meloan sports “a fastball that sits around 92-94 and has touched 97 with a curveball as his secondary pitch.” Meloan should greatly improve across the board once he is converted back to a reliever and has the potential to be a closer someday. He was also ranked as the fifth best prospect in the Dodgers’ organization by John Sickels of Minor League Ball.

Carlos Santana Stats

Year (Level)	Age	AB	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007 (A)	21	292	7	5	.223	.318	.370	.688
2008 (A+)	22	343	14	7	.318	.424	.563	.987

Carlos Santana has not played past Class-A+ and was converted to a full-time catcher last season. Santana saw a drop in offense during his first year as a backstop, but has come on strong in his second year. At age 22, Santana is putting up some impressive numbers with 14 HR and a .318 AVG, .424 OBP, and .563 SLG over 343 AB. The fact that he is this young and has both patience at the plate and some power makes for a prospect with some serious potential down the road. Santana is also a switch hitter (sound familiar?).

Just out of curiosity, I pulled up Victor Martinez’s numbers at Class-A+ Kinston at age 22. Besides also being a converted infielder and switch hitter, Martinez shares similar numbers to Santana at the same age and minor league level with 10 HR and a .329 AVG, .394 OBP, and .488 SLG line in 2001. Santana is too raw to make any concrete conclusions, but I thought this was kinda cool.

Like I said earlier, I think Cleveland came out way ahead in this deal considering all they gave up was an aging utility player with an expiring contract. Mark Shapiro, we salute you.

Finally…

The 34-year old Blake has been with Cleveland since the 2003 season and has long been a fixture in the dugout. Casey has always been a team-first player and was always willing to play where ever the team needed him that season, be it third, first, the outfield, or even shortstop. He never had the makings of a super star, but Blake endeared himself to the fans because of his gritty, selfless style of play and awesome beard.

I’ve had my fair share of criticism for Blake over the years, much of which stemmed from how the team utilized him rather than his actual performance. I’m actually a fan of Blake’s versatility, leadership, and how he approaches the game and am glad he was a part of the team, even if he seemed to be in over his head at times (again, not his fault). Blake will probably go down as one of the more colorful characters that emerged from the rebuilt Tribe and despite the occasional frustrating moment I was happy to root for him.

Good luck in L.A. Casey!

Raising the White Flag

It's pretty obvious. If you're looking for an announcement that we're going to start trading guys, you won't get that until we make our first trade. But I think it's fairly obvious at this point.

-Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro, 7/2/08

The white flag was officially raised by Cleveland this week with 77 games remaining in the season. The decline of this year’s squad has been one long, painful slump after another. If it wasn’t the offense, it was the bullpen. If it wasn’t the bullpen (though it usually was), it was the starting pitching. As the injuries stacked up, it became more and more apparent that this team would not have the talent needed to contend.

There was certainly some risks and elevated expectations going into the 2008 season. Even if the team was completely healthy, they would have had a tough time improving on their ALCS appearance last year. Half the analysts from Bristol to Minneapolis were picking the Indians to make the playoffs again, maybe even go all the way. How much that pressure weighed on the players and the coaching staff, nobody knows except the people in the dugout. After all the seasoning this team has gone through since 2005, I doubt few players gave the pressure of making the playoffs again a second thought. Besides, hanging a season with this many speed bumps on mental hiccups just doesn’t make any sense.

The risk I was referring to is going into a season with out making any major upgrades or additions to the team. This is about the biggest hindsight criticism one can make, but it’s true; there was a degree of risk involved. Shapiro placed a lot of faith in young players like Garko, Gutierrez, and Cabrera to take the next step and they stumbled. Veterans who were charged with carrying left field, third base, and the closer role failed miserably. Even the vaunted core of Sizemore, Martinez, Peralta, and Hafner couldn’t save the season, as the catcher and DH succumbed to injuries for a crucial stretch of the season. The starting pitching was the one bright spot this season, until two of the most consistent starters found themselves on the DL as well.

Despite the hindsight argument that Shapiro failed to bolster the offense as teams like Boston and Detroit got stronger, we’ll never know the true potential of this group of players because two of the three main offensive cogs were never healthy to begin with. There is no way anyone could have predicted such a handicap, thus there was no way to prepare for it in the offseason (how much he knew about Hafner’s shoulder is arguable, but that would be pure speculation here). An offense does not fluctuate like a bullpen; these players had a history of success offensively and Shapiro made a perfectly defensible decision to stick with them.

Obviously this season was disappointing, but when you get down to it anything short of a Word Series win would have been a disappointment in the end. 2007 was one of the greatest seasons I’ve ever experienced as an Indians fan, yet it was all a mere stepping stone toward a long awaited goal. It’s not uncommon for a strong contender to take a step back the season after. Whether players leave, get injured, regress, age, or have the wear of a playoff run catch up to them, it’s extremely difficult to sustain.

Granted, some teams are the exception to this rule (Oakland, New York, Boston, Atlanta are the most recent….the list gets much shorter after that).

I believe Cleveland may have fallen victim to its own success in a way. Were Shapiro and Wedge overconfident because of the team’s past accomplishments?

Maybe.

Did pitchers like Carmona, Westbrook, and Betancourt over-work their arms by throwing so many strenuous innings?

Possibly.

Fluctuations like these are part of the game; you just have to hope your team can stay ahead of the curve.

In a way, it’s beneficial that Cleveland tanked this year. The team’s struggles were a quick (albeit painful) way of weeding out holes in the lineup and who should be shipped out. With any luck and a little less stubbornness from Wedge, the team will finally have a no-risk opportunity to evaluate Andy Marte in the Majors. Cleveland can also convert the value Sabathia may have offered in the playoffs into a young, cornerstone player for 2009 or 2010.

Falling out of contention may be a blessing in disguise if the return for Sabathia fills in one of those offensive holes that have plagued the team lately. There’s no way this team would trade Sabathia if it were still gunning for a playoff spot.

Below is my list of things I’d like to see happen now that Cleveland has raised the white flag and started taking entries for the C.C. Sweepstakes. I’ll go into more detail on a few of these later this week:

1.) Trade Sabathia

The trade winds blowing through Cleveland are practically a hurricane now. The two most convincing reports I’ve heard so far come out of Milwaukee and Los Angeles. Milwaukee appears to be the front runner out of the many teams supposedly scouting Sabathia this month. It sounds like the Tribe may get a stud prospect or two after all. I’m going to wait and see how the rumors play out, but look for a possible announcement from the team next week.

2.) Play Andy Marte for the rest of the season

I don’t care if it’s at DH or third base, Wedge needs to play Marte NOW. If Shapiro has to twist Wedge’s arm to make this happen, that’s just fine with me. Marte has no minor league options left and has accumulated a grand total of 164, 57, and 55 at-bats with Cleveland over the 2006-2008 seasons.

This is not a fair means of evaluation for any player, let alone a 24 year old that was considered one of the best prospects in the game not too long ago. Blake is not the future, but there’s a strong possibility Marte is. If the poor kid doesn’t get called off the bench soon, he may just go all Shawn Chacon on Wedgie.

3.) Get rid of Borowski

Borowski was designated for assignment today, since the team doesn’t have to pretend it needs him closing out games anymore. I appreciate the solid 45 save season he gave us last year, but his time with Cleveland should have ended well before now.

4.) Dump Dellucci

Please?

5.) Trade Casey Blake

Again, I appreciate the past contributions, but we’re not talking about Todd Helton or Ken Griffey here, this is the type of player that you trade when you’re out of contention. Consider Casey’s $6.1 mil expiring contract, age, and the fact that we have Andy Marte rotting on the bench and that’s reason enough to trade him in my opinion.

There are plenty of contending teams that could use a super-utility man like Blake and his value has likely peaked for this season. Blake posted an OPS of .670 and .691 for April and May, respectively. Unless you think he can sustain a .954 OPS on a .420 BAbip beyond the month of June (he can’t) I say trade him while might be of value.

6.) Hold tryouts for the 2009 closer position

I’ve said before that I think Jensen Lewis and Masahide Kobayashi are the strongest contenders for closer next year. This may be a bit tricky though, as both pitchers are having trouble adapting to their recent increase in innings and will need to be handled carefully.

Lewis pitched 81 innings between AA, AAA, and the Majors in 2007. The last time he threw that many innings in a season was 2006 when he was still a starter at Kinston. Kobayashi averaged just 48 IP over the last three years in the shortened, 144 game Pro Yakyu season. Kobayashi has already logged 41 innings for Cleveland so far.

7.) Give Hafner and Martinez as much time as they need to heal

It's pretty much a lock that we won't see these two suit up again until they're 100% healthy. As I've said before, I think having Hafner sit out this season to fix his weakened shoulder and any holes in his swing will greatly benefit the team in the long run. Ditto for Martinez, whose choice to play through intense pain was admirable, but it's time to get that elbow permanently healthy.

Gritacular

On a night where the Tribe's pitching couldn't get it done, the offense finally plated some runners against Texas on Monday. Cleveland dusted off the RBI machine to the tune of 13 runs, 16 hits, 9 walks, and 4 two-run taters for the win. Oh, and the player of the game was this guy:

















3-5, 2 R, 7 RBI, 2 HR (Go figure)

Every member of the lineup except Sizemore scored and everyone reached base at least twice via a hit or walk. If that doesn't get the offense revved up, I don't know what will.

Go Tribe