Southpaw Saviors?

In my last post, I highlighted the Carl Pavano signing and expressed concern about the state of the Tribe's starting rotation for 2009. While I'm still worried about a pitching staff sans-Sabathia, I think I did a poor job of backing up my opinion. I summed up my thoughts as such:

"No one behind Lee and Carmona can truly be counted on to a.) pitch effectively for most of the season b.) stay healthy or c.) not pitch like a rookie who is in way over his head."

This is a pretty broad statement without much evidence behind it. Amazingly, no one called me on it, but I think these issues warrant further investigation.

What should we expect from Aaron Laffey?

Laffey started the 2008 season in Buffalo as an emergency sixth starter for the Major League club, but was soon called to action after Jake Westbrook suffered a rib injury in mid-April. With Westbrook's subsequent elbow injury (and season-ending surgery) it seemed like Laffey wouldn't be making that long drive to Buffalo anytime soon. Laffey provided the Tribe with an exceptional backup to Westbrook and initially improved on his 2007 debut.

Year	Age	Level	IP (GS)	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	LD%	Strike%
2007	22	AAA	96.1 (15)	3.08	1.16	7.01	2.15	N/A	N/A	N/A
		MLB	49.1 (9)	4.56	1.34	4.56	2.19	3.32	18.8	62.2
2008	23	AAA	61.2 (11)	4.38	1.46	6.86	2.63	N/A	N/A	N/A
		MLB	93.2 (16)	4.23	1.43	4.13	2.98	1.69	18.7	60.8

With the exception of two forgettable starts against New York (5.2 IP, 4 ER) and at Texas (5 IP, 8 ER), Laffey was very effective in his first 11 starts. The young southpaw averaged 6.23 innings per start with a 2.83 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 1.57 K/BB, and 1.60 GB/FB ratio over that span. At some point during his final six starts, Laffey started to experience difficulties with his throwing elbow. He got hit harder, surrendered more walks, and lasted fewer innings resulting in a 1.40 point jump in his ERA. After lasting just 3.2 innings in Seattle and getting torched for 8 ER in 4 IP in L.A., Cleveland sent Laffey back to Buffalo to smooth out some wrinkles in his mechanics. It's unclear to what degree, if any, Laffey's elbow was impeding his delivery at this point, but he did not fare much better in Buffalo, posting a 4.38 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 61.2 total innings in AAA that year. Those last two starts basically trashed Laffey's overall numbers. In his 14 starts before the All Star Break, Laffey had a 3.45 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 1.48 K/BB.

Despite struggling with his delivery and/or a strained elbow (again, I can't say for sure), several of Laffey's key peripherals from 2008 were still comparable to 2007. Even with a rough stretch in his final six starts, Laffey's line drive percentage and number of pitches thrown for strikes saw little change from last season. This is important because it shows Laffey's pitches were still fairly effective and batters were not driving his pitches any more than usual.

It's interesting that Laffey threw only 1.4% fewer strikes in 2008, yet his BB/9 rate jumped 0.79 points. The best explanation I can think of for that is that Laffey did not challenge batters to expand the strike zone as often as before. In 2007, a batter may have been more likely to offer at a breaking ball on its way out of the zone resulting in a ground or foul ball (both tallied as strikes), rather than a called ball. This theory is encouraged by a 6.4% drop in O-Swing%, or the amount of time a batter swung at a pitch outside the strike zone.

With all the reports of Laffey's delivery needing some work last season, it seems pretty likely that his pitches were not experiencing the same movement as before. If Laffey was unable to drive his breaking ball through the desired trajectory on a consistent basis, this could explain why his walk rate went up and his pitches failed to fool as many batters. Flatter or more erratic pitches could also lead to fewer fooled batters flailing into groundball outs, at least partly explaining the steep drop in GB/FB ratio. I'm fairly confident that any issues Laffey had with his pitches were directly related to his strained elbow. One good sign amidst Laffey's control issues was that his pitch velocity saw only negligible changes between the two seasons.

The key to Laffey's success is his ability to induce groundball outs. The only variables that changed since 2007 were the health of Laffey's elbow, his command, and his groundball production. Laffey's pitch selection, velocity, and strategy basically stayed the same. The fact that a specific, integral variable (the elbow) can be traced back to the other two troublesome variables is encouraging.

It's easy to forget just how few consecutive innings Laffey has logged in the Majors when it feels like (at least to me) he's been such a steady contributor to the team since their playoff run in 2007. Even though his experience and talent give him an edge over his contemporaries, Laffey has still not been guaranteed a spot in the rotation heading into Spring Training (Shapiro has hinted that Laffey is the frontrunner for the job, so this may just be to further competition amongst the lesser candidates). There is still some question as to how Laffey will perform over the course of an entire Major League season. This is certainly a valid point, since no amount of projections or speculation can truly predict how a 23-year old pitcher coming off an injury will perform over 170+ innings. That said, I still feel there's a strong chance Laffey will continue to improve on his two partial seasons.

The issues outlined above are unlikely to follow Laffey into 2009, especially since his delivery issues were caught and corrected early. Cleveland was wise to shut-down Laffey as soon as the elbow strain was diagnosed and has carefully monitored his performance since then. If Laffey's control reverts back to its 2007 form, his walk and groundball rates should go back to normal which will make him much more effective than he has been lately. I don't see any reason why this won't happen next season if Laffey is 100% healthy. I'm not sure if this will be Laffey's breakout season, but I do think he will establish himself as a full-time starter in the Majors. If I were to choose which fourth or fifth starter will go on to log the most innings this season, I would take Laffey over Pavano, Huff, Sowers, and Lewis.

Does Huff have the tools to succeed out of the gate?

Former first-round draft pick, David Huff, is expected to be a strong contender for the final rotation spot out of Spring Training. Huff pitched collegiate ball for two years at UCLA before signing with the Indians in 2006. The California native encountered little resistance in the lower minors and found himself in Buffalo in a little over two seasons. Huff's 2007 season with Kinston was shortened because of a strained ligament in his throwing elbow, but he suffered no ill effects from the elbow in 2008. Below are Huff's stats from the past two seasons:

Year	Age	Level	IP (GS)	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	BABIP	FIP
2007	22	A+	59.2 (11)	2.72	1.21	6.94	2.26	3.07	.302	3.33
2008	23	AA	65.2 (10)	1.92	0.88	8.50	1.92	4.43	.240	2.99
		AAA	80.2 (16)	3.01	1.03	9.04	1.67	5.40	.291	3.15

I really can't find anything to complain about here. Huff must have had great coaches and preparation at UCLA because he hit the ground running in his first full minor league season and never looked back. His strikeout and walk rates improved significantly at each development level, despite having to make the transition from AA to AAA mid-season. In 213.2 career minor league innings, Huff compiled an outstanding 2.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Huff's numbers hold up well on their own, too. When team defense is removed from the equation with FIP, Huff would still have averaged a 3.15 ERA.

Even when Huff appeared to be at risk of stumbling in his first season back from the elbow injury, his talent proved otherwise. A .240 BABIP, like Huff had in 65 innings at AA, would normally indicate a pitcher is playing over his head. Instead, Huff improved across the board after his promotion to AAA, raising his BABIP to a more sustainable .291 in the process. Obviously, that last hurdle between AAA and the Majors is the biggest, but Huff seems as prepared as anyone to make a successful transition.

Despite having just over 200 innings of professional experience, Huff's maturity as a pitcher shines through in his performance. Tony Lastoria describes Huff's abilities:

"Huff is a strike-thrower who has excellent command of his pitches. His fastball consistently clocks in at 88-91 MPH, and his changeup is a plus pitch and ranked one of the best in the country coming into the draft. While he does not overpower hitters, he has unbelievable confidence in his fastball, and commands it well working it to both sides of the plate and to the corners on all four quadrants. He has the best fastball command in the entire system, and is a very polished pitcher. He is aggressive and attacks hitters, and he has a great, athletic delivery which deceives hitters and he repeats it well.

The key to Huff's future will be the development of an effective breaking ball as a third pitch to use against left-handers. He does throw a curveball, but it still needs a lot of work, and his slider is just average."

Huff's lack of a go-to breaking pitch may prove to be a challenge once he starts to face Major League hitting, but those pitches should have improved considerably by the time Spring Training starts (the scouting report I quoted is over a year old at this point). One trait that should serve Huff well in his rookie season is his ability to aggressively attack hitters in all parts of the strike zone.

At first, Huff reminded me of another left-hander who relies heavily on control. Jeremy Sowers' career mirrors Huff's in several ways. Both pitched in college, cruised through the minors, and were primed for their MLB debut by age 23 (assuming Huff joins the team this year). Sowers' career minor league stats are also similar (414 IP, 2.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 8.4 H9, 2.2 BB9, 6.7 K9), except Sowers was never the strikeout pitcher that Huff is. Leading up to his MLB debut, Sowers saw his strikeout rate decline at least a full point at each development level, settling in at 5.0 K/9 over 97.1 IP in 2006. Sowers was able to raise his K rate in two Buffalo stints in 2007 and 2008 to 5.7 and 6.4 respectively, but never duplicated that success in the Majors. Huff followed the opposite path, elevating his K rate by 2.10 points between A+ and AAA.

Also, if Huff's fastball range of 88-91 MPH sounds like something typically associated with "crafty" lefties, it's worth noting that Cliff Lee averaged just 90.5 MPH with his fastball last season. An 89 MPH average doesn't seem so bad for a pitcher who actually has the ability and the guts to challenge hitters on all parts of the plate.

If Huff's strikeout rate distinguishes him from Sowers, how does he compare to past pitching prospects? Below are the career minor league stats for two other left-handed pitchers who eventually stuck in the Majors:

Player	IP	ERA	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	K9
C. Lee	427.1	3.37	1.27	7.2	0.8	4.2	10.2
C.C. Sabathia	246.2	3.44	1.30	7.3	0.5	4.4	10.4
D. Huff	213.2	2.70	1.07	7.5	0.7	2.2	8.3

It's interesting to note how Lee and Sabathia made up for a lack of control with high K rates, while Huff had significantly better control with a lower, yet still strong, K rate. This may not mean anything at all, but it's fun to look at.

As far as I'm concerned, Huff doesn't have much left to prove in the minors. It's possible that Sowers will get one last shot at the Majors before the team makes a final decision on him, but it looks like the next wave of prospects has finally caught up to Sowers. Considering Cleveland's fourth starter is Carl "anecdotal adjective" Pavano, they'll need all the pitching depth they can get. However, unless Pavano crashes his Ferrari into the foul pole at Goodyear or something, Huff is a long-shot for the final rotation spot (I'll be surprised if Laffey doesn't get it). The good news is that as soon as Pavano inevitably implodes, the team can simply eat his meager salary and plug in Huff. Until then, Huff will probably be this season's emergency starter in Columbus.

Tribe Signs Collegiate Standout from Taiwan

Cleveland finalized negotiations with right handed pitching prospect Chen-Chang Lee earlier this week. The 21 year old Lee is a native of Taiwan and started for his national team in the Beijing Olympics.

According to Cleveland's Assistant General Manager of Scouting, John Mirabelli, the team has scouted Lee since he was 16 years old. Cleveland reportedly offered Lee a contract in the past, but was turned down. Lee chose to attend Taipei Ti Wu college before going pro, the same school that produced Chien Ming Wang.

A Chinese news source translated by the blog Taiwan Baseball reports Lee "received a $350K signing bonus + a possible $90K for tuition if he performs well in the fall instructional league. Aside from the high six figure offer from a NPB team, Lee received interest from the Indians and 4 other ML teams. The other clubs' offers were all rumored to have been less than $150K (with the Twins offering less than $100K). The article also goes on to say that the reason for some of the scout's apprehension with not offering/or the lower offer for Lee, was because of Lee's limited upside (will probably be a middle reliever) and that he was over utilized in Taiwan."

Apparently, Lee and other Taiwanese pitchers were viewed by multiple Major League scouts at the Olympics. Lee may have boosted his value recently with a strong performance in Beijing. Lee surrendered just 3 H, 2 BB, and 1 ER with 7 SO over 6.2 IP against the Cuban national team. He followed that strong outing up with 2.1 IP, 1 ER, and 4 SO against the United States. Lee has participated in various collegiate and amateur leagues during his career, as well and is highly regarded in Taiwan.

On his blog, Castronvince writes that Lee "reportedly throws a sinker, slider and split-finger. His fastball is said to max out at 94 mph." Lee also features a side-arm delivery, which is one reason scouts view him as a reliever if he ever makes the Majors. In a 2007 ESPN.com article, Keith Law described Lee as a "fast return on investment" and "the top college pitcher" in Taiwanese baseball. According to previous reports cited by Taiwan Baseball, Lee has encountered some shoulder injuries in the past. Given the extent to which Lee has been scouted and a successful physical, his shoulder does not appear to be a major concern at this point.

Lee is expected to report to Class-A Kinston for the 2009 season.

On Pacific Rim Baseball

Even if Lee does not make an impact in the Major Leagues, his signing may serve as another stepping stone for Cleveland baseball in East Asia. Cleveland has been very active throughout the region for several years and all signs point to Asia as an emerging hot bed for baseball prospects. Taiwan, South Korea, and China have joined Japan in producing Major League caliber players and MLB has started to aggressively promote the sport in these emerging regions. Lee is one of Taiwan's best known players and his career with the Tribe should draw a fair amount of interest there. His signing may encourage prospects to take a closer look at Cleveland's system in the future.

The Dodgers have had a strong presence in China since the 1980s when they teamed up with the China Baseball Association. The partnership led to visits by Dodgers coaches and scouts, field construction, baseball clinics, and youth leagues in China. The Dodgers and Padres played two exhibition games in China last Spring, marking the first meeting of two MLB teams in the country.

MLB has had a flurry of activity the past two years, establishing grass roots programs to promote the sport, signing an agreement with Chinese television to air the World Series, and hosting the Chinese National team at this year's Arizona Fall League.

The Yankees began collaborating with the Chinese Baseball Association last year on ways to develop and promote baseball in China. New York became the first MLB team to sign Chinese players in pitcher Kai Liu and catcher Zhenwang Zhang, both 19 years old. Further utilizing their well-known name, the Yankees also became the first MLB team to sign a sponsorship deal with a Chinese company.

Seattle signed two more Chinese players later on in 2007, catcher Wei Wang and infielder/outfielder Yu Bingjia.

Taiwan was represented in the Majors well before 2007. Yankees ace Chien-Ming Wang is by far the most famous and had an outstanding sophomore season in 2006 (19-6, 218 IP, 3.63 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 1.46 K/BB). The Dodgers have had four Taiwanese players in their system since 2002 (Chin-Feng Chen, Chin-Lung Hu, Hong-Chih Kuo, Chin-hui Tsao), while Colorado (Chin-hui Tsao) and Cleveland have each signed one.

Cleveland's prospect, relief pitcher Sung-Wei Tseng, split the 2008 season in Kinston (5.27 ERA, 54.2 IP) and Akron (8.80 ERA, 15.1 IP), where he has apparently been struggling.

Casey Dealt to Dodgers

Super-utility man Casey Blake has been dealt to the Dodgers for two minor leaguers. Cleveland also sent cash to round out the deal to pay for the remainder of Blake's salary (about $2 million). The Dodgers were one of several suitors for Blake including the Rays, Mets, and Phillies. All four teams were looking for a veteran infielder or corner outfielder.

Blake’s immediate value got a boost after New York snagged outfielder Xavier Nady from Pittsburgh on Friday. According to Jayson Stark of ESPN, Blake was the most sought after bat on the market, after Nady.

Blake’s rise in value can be attributed to the amount of competition among contenders for his services and an extended hot streak. The Dodgers had lost faith in their young third basemen, Andy LaRoche and Blake DeWitt, and were looking to upgrade their offense. L.A.’s offense ranks towards the bottom of the National League (13/16 teams) in runs scored.

The 24 year old LaRoche had posted a 68 OPS+ in just 59 AB, while 22 year old rookie DeWitt had a 79 OPS+ in 280 AB (strange that L.A. opted to trade two prospects for a veteran when they never even gave their own young players a chance to play, oh well). The loss of Rafael Furcal and the fragility of Nomar Garciaparra further whittled down their infield’s offensive production.

Blake has been on fire for nearly two months now and will take over at third full-time for the Dodgers. Blake posted a .366 BA, .420 OBP, .535 SLG line with 3 HR in 101 AB for June. As the trade deadline neared Blake stayed hot with a .328 BA, .413 OBP, .594 SLG line with 4 HR in 64 AB for July. Perhaps even more interesting to some teams was Casey’s prowess for bringing in runners this season. Blake has hit .393 with a 1.198 OPS with runners in scoring position and leads Cleveland with 58 RBI.

The downside of acquiring Casey is that he is obviously running hot right now. He will be at least a slight upgrade offensively for the Dodgers’ current options at third, but could cool down significantly by the time the playoffs arrive (.697 career OPS in September/October). Blake is just an average defender at third base, but his offense likely trumps any defensive concerns for the Dodgers.

Blake is wrapping up a one year, $6.1 million contract, but his role with the team next year was uncertain. Moving Blake leaves no competition in Cleveland for Andy Marte and will allow the team to properly evaluate the young third baseman for the remainder of the season.

Cleveland’s third base situation for 2009 could hang heavily on Marte’s performance with rising, 23 year old prospect Wes Hodges not yet in AAA. Jhonny Peralta’s future position may also be impacted by the Blake trade depending on how Marte and Asdrubal Cabrera pan out, but that’s another story.

The Prospects

Cleveland appears to have won this trade no matter which way you slice it. Both prospects seem to have a good ceiling based on their respective peripherals, ages, and positions. John Meloan is a 22-year old pitcher who was converted from a reliever to a starter in AAA this season. 2008 is Meloan’s first stint as a starter, but Rotoworld reports that Cleveland will convert him back to the bullpen. Meloan had a cup of coffee with L.A. in 2007, throwing 7.1 forgettable innings out of the pen.

John Meloan Stats

Year (Level)	Age	ERA	WHIP	IP	K/BB	K9	HR9
2007 (AA)	22	2.18	0.93	45.1	3.88	13.90	0.60
2007 (AAA)	22	1.69	0.98	21.1	2.33	8.86	0.84
2007(MLB)	22	11.05	2.18	7.1	.875	8.59	1.23
2008 (AAA)	23	4.97	1.70	105.0	1.65	8.49	0.60

The fact that the Dodgers wanted to try this guy as a starter speaks to his potential (even if the move doesn’t make a lot of sense), but Meloan’s peripherals would be scary good in a late-inning relief role. As a Class-AAA reliever, Meloan posted a 1.69 ERA, .98 WHIP, and 8.86 K9 rate over 21.1 innings. These numbers are comparable to his time in AA where he had an outstanding 13.90 strikeouts per nine innings to match a 2.18 ERA and .93 WHIP.

Meloan saw a drop off in his K rate between AA and AAA, but his K9 rate held steady from then on. He reportedly has some control issues, as indicated by a worsening K/BB rate at each level, but has managed to lower the number of homers surrendered over this span and is still developing as a pitcher.

According to Paul Cousineau, Meloan sports “a fastball that sits around 92-94 and has touched 97 with a curveball as his secondary pitch.” Meloan should greatly improve across the board once he is converted back to a reliever and has the potential to be a closer someday. He was also ranked as the fifth best prospect in the Dodgers’ organization by John Sickels of Minor League Ball.

Carlos Santana Stats

Year (Level)	Age	AB	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007 (A)	21	292	7	5	.223	.318	.370	.688
2008 (A+)	22	343	14	7	.318	.424	.563	.987

Carlos Santana has not played past Class-A+ and was converted to a full-time catcher last season. Santana saw a drop in offense during his first year as a backstop, but has come on strong in his second year. At age 22, Santana is putting up some impressive numbers with 14 HR and a .318 AVG, .424 OBP, and .563 SLG over 343 AB. The fact that he is this young and has both patience at the plate and some power makes for a prospect with some serious potential down the road. Santana is also a switch hitter (sound familiar?).

Just out of curiosity, I pulled up Victor Martinez’s numbers at Class-A+ Kinston at age 22. Besides also being a converted infielder and switch hitter, Martinez shares similar numbers to Santana at the same age and minor league level with 10 HR and a .329 AVG, .394 OBP, and .488 SLG line in 2001. Santana is too raw to make any concrete conclusions, but I thought this was kinda cool.

Like I said earlier, I think Cleveland came out way ahead in this deal considering all they gave up was an aging utility player with an expiring contract. Mark Shapiro, we salute you.

Finally…

The 34-year old Blake has been with Cleveland since the 2003 season and has long been a fixture in the dugout. Casey has always been a team-first player and was always willing to play where ever the team needed him that season, be it third, first, the outfield, or even shortstop. He never had the makings of a super star, but Blake endeared himself to the fans because of his gritty, selfless style of play and awesome beard.

I’ve had my fair share of criticism for Blake over the years, much of which stemmed from how the team utilized him rather than his actual performance. I’m actually a fan of Blake’s versatility, leadership, and how he approaches the game and am glad he was a part of the team, even if he seemed to be in over his head at times (again, not his fault). Blake will probably go down as one of the more colorful characters that emerged from the rebuilt Tribe and despite the occasional frustrating moment I was happy to root for him.

Good luck in L.A. Casey!

Adíos to the Ace

I always seem to fall behind when it comes to covering major transactions. Obviously every one on the internet has commented on the Sabathia trade by now, but rather than strictly defer to some of the bigger Tribe blogs out there (who did a great job, by the way) I’ll see if I can come up with any new thoughts on the trade. Someone out there on the internets must think I know what I’m talking about, so I’ll provide a write up for you, the esteemed reader.

If you haven’t found out by now that C.C. (CC?) Sabathia has been traded to Milwaukee then you probably aren’t reading this article due to a lack of internet access. Cleveland received a total of four players in the deal, including an outfielder/first baseman, two pitchers, and a player to be named later (more on those guys later). After reading just about every scrap of analysis and opinion on the trade, I’m still convinced Shapiro made a good move here. Of course, you can’t please everyone, especially when you have the legendary Bartolo Colon trade on your resume like Shap does.

One criticism I’ve heard about the trade is that Cleveland should have waited until closer to the trade deadline in an attempt to drive up the price and woo more suitors. If Sabathia were more than just a four month rental, this might not have been a bad idea. However, Doug Melvin and Mark Shapiro moved quickly to make the exchange final, as it was mutually beneficial to do so.

First, the Brewers gain three or four extra starts from Sabathia, which would have been quite a broadside against division leader Chicago before they acquired Rich “ace bandage” Harden.

The Tribe’s benefits are not entirely obvious, but two possible nightmare scenarios were Sabathia getting injured or Milwaukee going on a massive slide before July 31. Falling from 3.5 games back to 8.5 in such a competitive division would make many GMs think twice before going all-in on a trade. Trade rumors indicate every contending team at least inquired about CC, with the Dodgers, Tampa Bay, and Boston among the supposed leaders (not confirmed, but it's irrelevant now).

Despite the plethora of trade packages available, Milwaukee’s fit Cleveland’s needs the best from the start and they seemed to express the strongest desire to deal. According to Shapiro, his staff had started shopping around three weeks before the deal went down, so I think it’s safe to say they knew exactly what was available before making a final decision. The fact that so many teams wanted Sabathia’s services probably helped drive up the price quite a bit. Even though Cleveland did not receive any current Major Leaguers, the centerpiece of the trade is about as good as it gets in terms of immediate value and potential.

The other criticism circulating is that Cleveland did not receive enough in return. I was surprised at how many people insisted on using the Colon trade as the benchmark for this deal. The circumstances for the two trades are very different and frankly, comparing any trade to the Colon trade is just unfair (you rarely see a return of value as successful as it was for Colon).

The biggest similarity is that Colon and Sabathia were both at the top of their game when dealt. Colon was 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA and 75 K, leading the AL in both innings and complete games heading into the All Star break. Like Milwaukee, the 2002 Expos were desperate for a playoff berth and were willing to empty the farm to win now. It’s important to remember that Colon was under team control through the end of the 2003 season because of a team option.

Here’s the prospect package Cleveland received back in 2002:

Brandon Phillips, SS – 20 years old

Ranked the 20^th best prospect by Baseball America in 2002, recently promoted to AAA; regarded as Montreal’s best overall prospect.

Cliff Lee, P – 23 years old

Was a decent prospect in Montreal’s system, but was in the midst of a breakout season at Class-AA.

Grady Sizemore, OF – 19 years old

Noted for his athleticism, the relatively unknown Sizemore was struggling in the low level Florida State League with a .258 BA and no HR.

So, one elite position player, a raw, high-ceiling pitcher, and a Class-A prospect with good athletic skills from a very desperate Expos GM (they were facing contraction in ’02) in exchange for a 29 year old ace with a year and a half guaranteed contract in a pre-Zito free agent market.

Why would anyone expect a similar return for Sabathia? I fail to see the logic in exercising such high expectations for the Sabathia trade when your baseline is a six year old trade in a vastly different market that is arguably one of the five greatest trades in franchise history. Moving on….

The Return

Below is a brief description of the three known prospects obtained from Milwaukee:

Matt LaPorta, OF/1B – 23 years old

Level	Age	AB	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A	22	88	10	.318	.392	.750	1.142
AA	23	302	20	.288	.402	.576	.978

LaPorta was ranked as the 23^rd best prospect by Baseball America to open the 2008 season. He primarily played 1B in college and was named the 2007 Southeastern Conference Player of the Year with Florida and was a 1^st Team All-American at DH. The Brewers drafted him with the seventh overall pick in 2007.

Despite struggling in the outfield and being a natural first baseman, Milwaukee shifted LaPorta to the outfield in the minor leagues. The move made sense for Milwaukee, since they had Prince Fielder entrenched at 1B. LaPorta became a tradable commodity for Milwaukee after the emergence of corner outfielders Ryan Braun and Corey Hart.

This does not discount LaPorta’s value though, as he is far and away the best offensive prospect in a deep Brewer’s farm system. According to Jay at LGT, “LaPorta immediately becomes the best prospect in the Indians organization, or at worst a very close second to Triple-A LHP David Huff, another first-rounder having an outstanding season.”

There’s an excellent chance LaPorta will be contributing in the Majors by 2009. Cleveland will probably evaluate him in Buffalo before promoting him, but don’t let his Class-AA tag fool you. LaPorta is the real deal and should fill in a major hole in the Tribe’s offense for years to come.

It will be interesting to see how LaPorta’s presence affects Ryan Garko’s future with Cleveland. Garko is having a terrible season where he was supposed to be a major cog in the offense. I would not be surprised if Garko is traded before the start of the 2009 season, but Cleveland would definitely be selling low at this point.

Rob Bryson, RHP - 20 years old

Level	Age	IP	ERA	WHIP	K / BB	HR / IP
Rk	19	54.0	2.67	1.13	5.83	.037
A	20	55.0	4.25	1.15	3.65	.054

Bryson is only 20 years old and has not progressed past Class-A yet. As such, it’s difficult to draw much from his one and a half seasons of low minor league ball. Fortunately, Tony Lastoria obtained a scouting report from Brian Kapellusch and was kind enough to post it. Here’s what Kapellusch had to say on the young righty:

Draft & Follow guy, with a really great strikeout rate. He's got a very plus slider, and a decent fastball. I think he projects as a reliever, possibly a closer, but I suppose he could start if he developed a third pitch. Obviously he's only in A-ball, so he's got a way to go, but the Brewers wouldn't have signed him as a DFE player if they didn't think he was worth it.

Zach Jackson, LHP - 25 years old

Level	Age	IP	ERA	WHIP	K / BB	HR / IP
MLB	23	38.1	5.40	1.62	1.57	.157
AAA	24	169.2	4.46	1.46	1.92	.076
AAA	25	57.1	7.85	1.73	1.88	.174
MLB (MIL)	25	3.2	4.91	1.91	0.5	0.00

Jackson seems like a typical throw in player and I think his stats speak for themselves. He may be used as a long reliever for the remainder of 2008, but I doubt we’ll be seeing him in Cleveland next season unless he makes some major improvements in AAA.

Player to be Named Later

The PTBNL is actually a crucial part to this deal, but major media outlets have been glossing over it for some reason. According to a report by Castrovince, "it is believed the player to be named will either be Class A third baseman Taylor Green or Double-A outfielder Michael Brantley, both of whom are considered prime prospects."

Part of the reason I waited to write about the trade was because I was waiting to find out who the second major piece of the deal was. Apparently, Cleveland has until the end of the regular season to make their decision, but I doubt they’ll linger past the July 31 trade deadline. The Front Office has been knee deep in scouting reports the past few weeks, so they probably have a good idea of who they want and are just wrapping up some loose ends.

See Ya CC

On a personal note, I’m very sad to see Sabathia leave. He was by far the most electric and accomplished pitcher to ever take the mound for Cleveland during the Jacobs Field era and will be missed. I had been bracing for his departure since Spring Training, so I guess any frustration I might have felt in this case has already eroded away.

In a way, Sabathia’s departure isn’t much different than Thome or Ramirez or any of the other Free Agency Villains Cleveland fans usually bring up. Sabathia would have certainly left for more money and to be closer to his California home (the latter I can’t blame him for), yet most fans still seem fairly warm towards CC (myself included). I guess the fact he was traded first and we actually got some value back for one our departing stars makes a big difference in how the situation is perceived. Baseball is weird like that.

I am glad Sabathia was able to experience one more playoff run in a Cleveland uniform and finally win his Cy Young award (I knew he’d win one eventually). So adíos CC and good luck in Milwaukee. Just don’t sign with New York or Boston, ok?