Southpaw Saviors?

In my last post, I highlighted the Carl Pavano signing and expressed concern about the state of the Tribe's starting rotation for 2009. While I'm still worried about a pitching staff sans-Sabathia, I think I did a poor job of backing up my opinion. I summed up my thoughts as such:

"No one behind Lee and Carmona can truly be counted on to a.) pitch effectively for most of the season b.) stay healthy or c.) not pitch like a rookie who is in way over his head."

This is a pretty broad statement without much evidence behind it. Amazingly, no one called me on it, but I think these issues warrant further investigation.

What should we expect from Aaron Laffey?

Laffey started the 2008 season in Buffalo as an emergency sixth starter for the Major League club, but was soon called to action after Jake Westbrook suffered a rib injury in mid-April. With Westbrook's subsequent elbow injury (and season-ending surgery) it seemed like Laffey wouldn't be making that long drive to Buffalo anytime soon. Laffey provided the Tribe with an exceptional backup to Westbrook and initially improved on his 2007 debut.

Year	Age	Level	IP (GS)	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	LD%	Strike%
2007	22	AAA	96.1 (15)	3.08	1.16	7.01	2.15	N/A	N/A	N/A
		MLB	49.1 (9)	4.56	1.34	4.56	2.19	3.32	18.8	62.2
2008	23	AAA	61.2 (11)	4.38	1.46	6.86	2.63	N/A	N/A	N/A
		MLB	93.2 (16)	4.23	1.43	4.13	2.98	1.69	18.7	60.8

With the exception of two forgettable starts against New York (5.2 IP, 4 ER) and at Texas (5 IP, 8 ER), Laffey was very effective in his first 11 starts. The young southpaw averaged 6.23 innings per start with a 2.83 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 1.57 K/BB, and 1.60 GB/FB ratio over that span. At some point during his final six starts, Laffey started to experience difficulties with his throwing elbow. He got hit harder, surrendered more walks, and lasted fewer innings resulting in a 1.40 point jump in his ERA. After lasting just 3.2 innings in Seattle and getting torched for 8 ER in 4 IP in L.A., Cleveland sent Laffey back to Buffalo to smooth out some wrinkles in his mechanics. It's unclear to what degree, if any, Laffey's elbow was impeding his delivery at this point, but he did not fare much better in Buffalo, posting a 4.38 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 61.2 total innings in AAA that year. Those last two starts basically trashed Laffey's overall numbers. In his 14 starts before the All Star Break, Laffey had a 3.45 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 1.48 K/BB.

Despite struggling with his delivery and/or a strained elbow (again, I can't say for sure), several of Laffey's key peripherals from 2008 were still comparable to 2007. Even with a rough stretch in his final six starts, Laffey's line drive percentage and number of pitches thrown for strikes saw little change from last season. This is important because it shows Laffey's pitches were still fairly effective and batters were not driving his pitches any more than usual.

It's interesting that Laffey threw only 1.4% fewer strikes in 2008, yet his BB/9 rate jumped 0.79 points. The best explanation I can think of for that is that Laffey did not challenge batters to expand the strike zone as often as before. In 2007, a batter may have been more likely to offer at a breaking ball on its way out of the zone resulting in a ground or foul ball (both tallied as strikes), rather than a called ball. This theory is encouraged by a 6.4% drop in O-Swing%, or the amount of time a batter swung at a pitch outside the strike zone.

With all the reports of Laffey's delivery needing some work last season, it seems pretty likely that his pitches were not experiencing the same movement as before. If Laffey was unable to drive his breaking ball through the desired trajectory on a consistent basis, this could explain why his walk rate went up and his pitches failed to fool as many batters. Flatter or more erratic pitches could also lead to fewer fooled batters flailing into groundball outs, at least partly explaining the steep drop in GB/FB ratio. I'm fairly confident that any issues Laffey had with his pitches were directly related to his strained elbow. One good sign amidst Laffey's control issues was that his pitch velocity saw only negligible changes between the two seasons.

The key to Laffey's success is his ability to induce groundball outs. The only variables that changed since 2007 were the health of Laffey's elbow, his command, and his groundball production. Laffey's pitch selection, velocity, and strategy basically stayed the same. The fact that a specific, integral variable (the elbow) can be traced back to the other two troublesome variables is encouraging.

It's easy to forget just how few consecutive innings Laffey has logged in the Majors when it feels like (at least to me) he's been such a steady contributor to the team since their playoff run in 2007. Even though his experience and talent give him an edge over his contemporaries, Laffey has still not been guaranteed a spot in the rotation heading into Spring Training (Shapiro has hinted that Laffey is the frontrunner for the job, so this may just be to further competition amongst the lesser candidates). There is still some question as to how Laffey will perform over the course of an entire Major League season. This is certainly a valid point, since no amount of projections or speculation can truly predict how a 23-year old pitcher coming off an injury will perform over 170+ innings. That said, I still feel there's a strong chance Laffey will continue to improve on his two partial seasons.

The issues outlined above are unlikely to follow Laffey into 2009, especially since his delivery issues were caught and corrected early. Cleveland was wise to shut-down Laffey as soon as the elbow strain was diagnosed and has carefully monitored his performance since then. If Laffey's control reverts back to its 2007 form, his walk and groundball rates should go back to normal which will make him much more effective than he has been lately. I don't see any reason why this won't happen next season if Laffey is 100% healthy. I'm not sure if this will be Laffey's breakout season, but I do think he will establish himself as a full-time starter in the Majors. If I were to choose which fourth or fifth starter will go on to log the most innings this season, I would take Laffey over Pavano, Huff, Sowers, and Lewis.

Does Huff have the tools to succeed out of the gate?

Former first-round draft pick, David Huff, is expected to be a strong contender for the final rotation spot out of Spring Training. Huff pitched collegiate ball for two years at UCLA before signing with the Indians in 2006. The California native encountered little resistance in the lower minors and found himself in Buffalo in a little over two seasons. Huff's 2007 season with Kinston was shortened because of a strained ligament in his throwing elbow, but he suffered no ill effects from the elbow in 2008. Below are Huff's stats from the past two seasons:

Year	Age	Level	IP (GS)	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	BABIP	FIP
2007	22	A+	59.2 (11)	2.72	1.21	6.94	2.26	3.07	.302	3.33
2008	23	AA	65.2 (10)	1.92	0.88	8.50	1.92	4.43	.240	2.99
		AAA	80.2 (16)	3.01	1.03	9.04	1.67	5.40	.291	3.15

I really can't find anything to complain about here. Huff must have had great coaches and preparation at UCLA because he hit the ground running in his first full minor league season and never looked back. His strikeout and walk rates improved significantly at each development level, despite having to make the transition from AA to AAA mid-season. In 213.2 career minor league innings, Huff compiled an outstanding 2.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Huff's numbers hold up well on their own, too. When team defense is removed from the equation with FIP, Huff would still have averaged a 3.15 ERA.

Even when Huff appeared to be at risk of stumbling in his first season back from the elbow injury, his talent proved otherwise. A .240 BABIP, like Huff had in 65 innings at AA, would normally indicate a pitcher is playing over his head. Instead, Huff improved across the board after his promotion to AAA, raising his BABIP to a more sustainable .291 in the process. Obviously, that last hurdle between AAA and the Majors is the biggest, but Huff seems as prepared as anyone to make a successful transition.

Despite having just over 200 innings of professional experience, Huff's maturity as a pitcher shines through in his performance. Tony Lastoria describes Huff's abilities:

"Huff is a strike-thrower who has excellent command of his pitches. His fastball consistently clocks in at 88-91 MPH, and his changeup is a plus pitch and ranked one of the best in the country coming into the draft. While he does not overpower hitters, he has unbelievable confidence in his fastball, and commands it well working it to both sides of the plate and to the corners on all four quadrants. He has the best fastball command in the entire system, and is a very polished pitcher. He is aggressive and attacks hitters, and he has a great, athletic delivery which deceives hitters and he repeats it well.

The key to Huff's future will be the development of an effective breaking ball as a third pitch to use against left-handers. He does throw a curveball, but it still needs a lot of work, and his slider is just average."

Huff's lack of a go-to breaking pitch may prove to be a challenge once he starts to face Major League hitting, but those pitches should have improved considerably by the time Spring Training starts (the scouting report I quoted is over a year old at this point). One trait that should serve Huff well in his rookie season is his ability to aggressively attack hitters in all parts of the strike zone.

At first, Huff reminded me of another left-hander who relies heavily on control. Jeremy Sowers' career mirrors Huff's in several ways. Both pitched in college, cruised through the minors, and were primed for their MLB debut by age 23 (assuming Huff joins the team this year). Sowers' career minor league stats are also similar (414 IP, 2.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 8.4 H9, 2.2 BB9, 6.7 K9), except Sowers was never the strikeout pitcher that Huff is. Leading up to his MLB debut, Sowers saw his strikeout rate decline at least a full point at each development level, settling in at 5.0 K/9 over 97.1 IP in 2006. Sowers was able to raise his K rate in two Buffalo stints in 2007 and 2008 to 5.7 and 6.4 respectively, but never duplicated that success in the Majors. Huff followed the opposite path, elevating his K rate by 2.10 points between A+ and AAA.

Also, if Huff's fastball range of 88-91 MPH sounds like something typically associated with "crafty" lefties, it's worth noting that Cliff Lee averaged just 90.5 MPH with his fastball last season. An 89 MPH average doesn't seem so bad for a pitcher who actually has the ability and the guts to challenge hitters on all parts of the plate.

If Huff's strikeout rate distinguishes him from Sowers, how does he compare to past pitching prospects? Below are the career minor league stats for two other left-handed pitchers who eventually stuck in the Majors:

Player	IP	ERA	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	K9
C. Lee	427.1	3.37	1.27	7.2	0.8	4.2	10.2
C.C. Sabathia	246.2	3.44	1.30	7.3	0.5	4.4	10.4
D. Huff	213.2	2.70	1.07	7.5	0.7	2.2	8.3

It's interesting to note how Lee and Sabathia made up for a lack of control with high K rates, while Huff had significantly better control with a lower, yet still strong, K rate. This may not mean anything at all, but it's fun to look at.

As far as I'm concerned, Huff doesn't have much left to prove in the minors. It's possible that Sowers will get one last shot at the Majors before the team makes a final decision on him, but it looks like the next wave of prospects has finally caught up to Sowers. Considering Cleveland's fourth starter is Carl "anecdotal adjective" Pavano, they'll need all the pitching depth they can get. However, unless Pavano crashes his Ferrari into the foul pole at Goodyear or something, Huff is a long-shot for the final rotation spot (I'll be surprised if Laffey doesn't get it). The good news is that as soon as Pavano inevitably implodes, the team can simply eat his meager salary and plug in Huff. Until then, Huff will probably be this season's emergency starter in Columbus.

Examining the Rotation

Cleveland has built a good reputation for keeping its players healthy in recent years, but the injury bug has nailed key members of the offense and pitching staff in 2008. Given how successful and relatively healthy the pitching staff was last season, it seemed inevitable that all those innings would catch up to the rotation in some form. Throw in two grueling playoff series and some extra wear and tear has a chance of carrying over to next season.

Carmona had never exceeded 150 innings pitched at any point in his baseball career (148 IP at Class A) and had just 74.1 Major League innings before his breakout season. Despite being characterized as the team workhorse, Sabathia exceeded 200 innings for only the second time in his career in 2007 (210 IP in 2002). Not including the playoffs, C.C. logged 31 more innings than he’s ever had in his career last season.

Oddly enough, the less experienced Carmona looked more like the ace than Sabathia early on. Carmona has exhibited some control issues this season, with a .60 K/BB ratio over 10 starts. Fausto’s primary weapon of getting groundball outs has allowed him to overcome these issues though and he still boasts a 3.10 ERA.

Sabathia got off to a rocky start (7.88 ERA in 6 April starts), but his overall numbers do not reflect the vast improvements he’s made as the season has progressed. C.C. has shown little sign of slowing down and has a 2.43 ERA, 4.90 K/BB ratio, and 3 complete games in 8 post-April starts.

The team’s main innings eater, Westbrook, came off a strong Spring Training only to land on the disabled list with an intercostal strain in his left side. The injury caused him to miss time from April 20 to May 28, but he only made one start before aggravating his throwing elbow. Westbrook has made just five starts this season, but was very effective when healthy with a 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

The Tribe’s starting rotation has been the life preserver for an otherwise disappointing season. Fortunately, Carmona will be making his first rehab start in the minors next week, but Westbrook is lost for the season due to a torn elbow ligament. Cleveland’s farm system had been particularly robust the last few years, but many of Buffalo’s top players are already settled in Cleveland. It may be depleted somewhat, but the pitching depth is as important as ever for 2008. Below is a breakdown of how the injuries to Carmona and Westbrook have played out so far.

Player: Fausto Carmona

Injury: Left hip strain, placed on the 15-day DL on May 24.

Projected Recovery Time: Early July at the latest, with a rehab start scheduled for this week.

Replacement: Jeremy Sowers

Cleveland really dodged a bullet with Carmona’s injury, as it could have been much worse. According to Head Trainer Lonnie Soloff, the injury did not seriously affect the interior part of the hip muscle, which would have taken much longer to heal. Another encouraging aspect of the injury is the way it occurred. Carmona tweaked the muscle while running off the mound to cover first base. This suggests that if given proper rest the injury probably won’t hinder Carmona’s pitching motion in the future.

Carmona has struggled with his control this season, giving up at least four walks in seven of his last ten starts, but since the hip was not a pre-existing condition there is no connection between the two.

Player	Year	GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/BB	GB/FB	GDP
F. Carmona	2007	32	215.0	3.06	1.21	2.24	2.97	32
	2008	10	58.0	3.10	1.59	0.61	3.71	15

Upon his return, Carmona’s main task will be to straighten out some of his lopsided peripherals. Fausto’s K/BB ratio has a difference of 1.63 between 2007 and 2008. The strikeout has always been more of a supplemental weapon for Carmona, but keeping those free passes down to a minimum is crucial for any pitcher looking for long-term success. Sooner or later all those walks are going to start crossing home plate.

At first glance, Fausto’s walk rates seem somewhat foreboding. Another set of data shows that his 3.10 ERA in the face of an elevated number of baserunners is no fluke and has a strong chance of improvement.

First, Fausto has managed to increase his groundball to flyball ratio from 2.97 to 3.71; that’s a pretty significant jump and helps explain why he’s been so good at damage control this year. Even if he scatters a few walks in a start, those runners are more likely to be stranded on a seeing-eye single, rather than a double off the wall. Carmona has been keeping the ball down, which is a good sign. Also, his double play rate has doubled this season. In 2007, Carmona converted a double play every 6.71 innings; that rate has increased to a DP every 3.86 innings.

Second, the flyballs that do make it into the air (as an out or a hit) are not leaving the park. In 2007, Carmona saw 11.1% of his flyballs go for homeruns compared to just 2.9% this season. Again, Carmona is allowing more base runners, but continues to do the right thing in keeping the ball on the ground and in the park.

Unless there’s an underlying health issue that has not been disclosed, there’s little reason to think Carmona won’t move past his current control issues and revert to his dominant self, much like Sabathia has done in his last few starts.

With Aaron Laffey already locked into the rotation, Jeremy Sowers got the call to replace Carmona. Sowers has been underwhelming in his first three starts, averaging just 4.7 innings a game with a 6.91 ERA. In his fourth start (occurring as I type this), Sowers needed 94 pitches to go 4.1 innings with 4 ER against lowly San Diego, so expect those numbers to balloon a bit. It’s hard to determine exactly what happened to Sowers between 2006 and now, but he has yet to make a smooth transition back to the majors since then.

Player	Year	Level	GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/BB	HR/9
J. Sowers	2007	MLB	13	67.1	6.42	1.56	1.14	1.13
	2008	AAA	10	60.2	2.08	1.20	2.53	0.59
		MLB	3	14.1	6.91	1.67	1.40	1.88

Sowers has a career 2.50 ERA in the minors, including a 2.08 ERA in 10 starts for Buffalo this year. He had supposedly corrected a few flaws in his delivery and improved his overall pitch velocity last year, leading to an increase in strikeouts at Buffalo. Jeremy got off to a hot start in 2008 and his stats as a starter were among the best in the International League. In two separate stints in the Majors though, Sowers has failed to capitalize on his past success.

I’ve always rooted for Sowers, but I can’t shake the feeling that he might not be cut out for the Majors. He’s been given several opportunities in the past few years and has not been a reliable arm since his promotion in late 2006. Sometimes when a pitcher who has dominated the minors and had some success in the majors goes into a long slump, it can be attributed to a mental block; I think this is the case with Sowers.

Sowers has never been handed a starting job in Cleveland outright. He has always had to look over his shoulder at either Laffey, Carmona, or a rehabbing pitcher who may take his position. A recent example of this was Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie toiled in the Tribe’s minor league system on-and-off during the rebuilding years, but never seemed to breakout. Suddenly, at age 28, Guthrie becomes an above average starter with a young, pitching-starved Baltimore after being cut by Cleveland. My point is a change of surroundings or a little job security can go a long way for a pitcher.

As I said earlier, Cleveland is fortunate that they don’t have to rely on Sowers as anything more than an emergency starter for now. I just haven’t seen any signs that point to Jeremy breaking out of whatever developmental purgatory he’s stuck in. There’s really nothing more he can accomplish in the minors though, since his numbers suggest his mechanics have been corrected. At 25 years old, Sowers still has some time left to develop and he may well get that permanent starting job he’s been chasing by 2009.

The 2009 rotation starts to look pretty scary with Sabathia leaving, Adam Miller unable to stay healthy, and Byrd’s vitality questionable. Sowers should get one or two more starts before Carmona returns, but that may be the last we see of him for a while. Next year is going to be very significant for Sowers and will be his final minor league option year with Cleveland.

Player: Jake Westbrook

Injury: Tear in right ulnar collateral ligament, officially diagnosed on June 5. Will be corrected by Tommy John surgery and a lengthy rehab period.

Projected Recovery Time: 10-14 months

Replacement: Aaron Laffey

Out of all the pitchers on Cleveland’s staff, Jake Westbrook was the one I thought least likely to land on the disabled list again. Westbrook’s low-power, sinkerball style and reportedly top conditioning gave the impression that he would reach 200 innings as he had from 2004 to 2006.

Westbrook’s left abdominal strain caused him to miss time in May of 2007, but was a blip on a predominately healthy run. Now, Westbrook will miss the rest of the 2008 season and possibly two months of 2009 with a ligament tear in his throwing arm. Since signing a three year, $33 million contract extension last April, Jake has been on the DL twice.

The first stint again featured muscles in his left side (diagnosed as an intercostal strain), which is worrisome due to its repetitive nature. The elbow injury may have resulted from one of Westbrook’s strengths: his ability to rack up innings every season. While there seems to be a consensus that young pitchers who rely heavily on the breaking ball are much more likely to be injured later on, it’s unclear how much this would impact an older (24+) pitcher like Jake.

After doing an internet search, I failed to find any conclusive studies that point to breaking ball pitchers having more time lost to injury than other pitchers, but it is certainly possible that averaging 197.4 innings per season for the last four years took its toll on Jake’s arm. Again, not too familiar with sports medicine, but that’s the best conclusion I could reach as far as the cause of the injury.

I try and avoid putting blind faith in the front office, but you’d have to think that a pre-contract extension physical would have identified any damage to the ligament if it really did erode over a long period of time. At any rate, the Tribe is out $11 mil this season; hopefully this isn’t the start of a permanent trend with Jake.

The good news is that Tommy John surgery has become very common and has an 85 to 90 percent success rate, improving with older patients (Carroll, 2004). The large majority of pitchers who undergo the procedure regain their former abilities within a 14 month period. The majority of the time is spent rehabbing the elbow, which leaves the chances of a successful recovery largely in the hands of the pitcher and training staff.

There’s also Aaron Laffey, who is on track to be this year’s Fausto Carmona (the good version, not the 2006 Fenway version). Laffey has been one of Cleveland’s most consistent starters, filling in for both Westbrook and Carmona at times. Simultaneous injuries to both pitchers kept Laffey around, but Westbrook’s permanent departure cemented the starting gig for Aaron.

The fact that Laffey is only being paid the league minimum also takes away some of the financial sting from Westbrook’s lost contract year.

Player	Year	GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/BB	GB/FB
A. Laffey	2007	9	49.3	4.56	1.33	2.08	3.32
	2008	9	57.3	2.83	1.15	2.15	1.56

Laffey has gone at least six innings and given up two runs or fewer in eight of his last ten starts. With only 106 career innings logged in the Majors, it will be a while before Laffey’s true potential can be measured. In the meantime, Laffey seems poised to have a breakout season with Cleveland.

A comparison of Laffey’s nine starts from 2007 to those in 2008 shows at least slight improvement across the board, with notable decreases in ERA and WHIP (these are almost guaranteed to change, as Laffey is currently putting up top-ten numbers here). It will be interesting to see if Laffey ends up outperforming Westbrook’s ZiPS projection of a 4.45 ERA over 180 IP.

The Contenders

I’ve been on a brief hiatus from blogging this month, but will do my best to keep the site updated. My work load has been a little crazy with graduation on the horizon and the last few weeks I haven’t had much time to read up on baseball, let alone write about it. As a result, the next few topics have probably already been written about by a classier, more intelligent website, but since Ontario Street is neither of these things I’ll be happy to fill the void.

There hasn’t been a lot of drama for the Tribe this offseason, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It’s unusual for a team to appear in the ALCS one year and have every starter return for round two, yet that’s the enviable position Cleveland is in this season. Due to the lack of roster turnover, there aren’t any major newcomers to scrutinize (except Masa, who has no MLB experience), but there are question marks above third base and the fifth slot in the rotation. There is even room for speculation about the corner outfield spots and second base, although those positions are less likely to be set in stone during the spring.

According to the Plain Dealer, the race for the fifth rotation slot is still closely contested. Manager Eric Wedge said his staff is “going to have to take it as long as we can. We want to give them all a very good look and utilize as much of camp as we can." It’s likely that a final decision won’t be made before the Tribe breaks camp on March 27. I normally don’t give Spring Training performances much thought, but since spring stats may play a key role in who wins the fifth slot out of camp, let’s take a look at where each pitcher stands:

Pitcher	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/BB	Last Appearance
C. Lee	8.2	8.31	2.56	1.25	4 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 2 SO, 1 BB
A. Laffey	8.0	7.62	2.00	.72	5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 SO, 1 BB
J. Sowers	8.0	9.00	2.00	1.33	3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 SO, 0 BB

I didn’t realize just how few innings each starting pitcher logs in camp, so there’s not much to work with in terms of stats (that and these guys are essentially facing a AAAA team that hasn’t quite found its bat speed yet). Unfortunately, what makes these stats even more one-dimensional are the things like pitch movement, velocity, inherited runners, quality of opposition, etc. that are not included. Wedge and company will be paying much closer attention to how each candidate actually pitches rather than what they post in the box score. For example, is Cliff Lee using a smarter pitch selection than last year? If yes, that’ll earn him a feather in the cap.

It’s safe to assume none of the players are ready for opening day just yet, but that doesn’t mean pitchers can’t show improvement in their mechanics or strategy. Unfortunately I’ve only seen the one ESPN game against the Mets, so I can’t really give a fair assessment on how Sowers, Laffey, and Lee have looked this spring.

The Darkhorse: Jeremy Sowers

I’m really rooting for Sowers to make it in the majors, but he probably carries the most uncertainty of the three candidates. After coming out of nowhere with back-to-back complete game shutouts in July and a 2.78 ERA in five August starts, Sowers appeared to be a prospect on the rise. Despite lacking dominant stuff, Sowers tripped up batters with his precise location and high pitching IQ. The trouble started in 2007 when the incumbent Sowers seemed to hit a wall. Batters appeared to have figured out his smoke and mirrors routine and his ERA jumped from 3.57 in 2006 to 6.42 in 2007 with nearly the same number of starts.

Player	Year	GS	IP	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	FIP	K/BB
J. Sowers	2006	14	88.3	3.57	127	1.18	4.65	1.75
	2007	13	67.3	6.42	72	1.55	5.62	1.14

One explanation is that Sowers may have been riding luck in 2006. His .256 BABIP and 76.3% LOB% suggest that luck may have indeed been a factor in Sowers’ first 14 appearances. According to Baseball Prospectus, a typical BABIP is .290, so some regression by Sowers would be expected. The high amount of runners stranded only adds to the impression that Sowers may have been walking a tightrope early on. In 2007, Sowers’ BABIP jumped to .308, while his LOB% dropped to 63.2%. More balls finding the gaps meant Sowers’ other peripherals suffered as well, including a .106 jump in his SLG against (.392 to .498). For a more in-depth breakdown on Sowers’ 2006 season, check out this link (there are three parts to the article). It’s to a Tribe blog that I’ve never heard of before, but the writer has some great stuff, particularly in retrospect.

Another issue with Sowers was that he began to lose some velocity on his fastball, which originally hovered in the high 80s to low 90s. A mix of lost confidence and mechanical issues plagued Sowers and resulted in an early demotion in 2007. Since then, Sowers has reportedly regained his pitch velocity and showed signs of improvement during his stint in Buffalo last season. Sowers posted some of his best numbers in Buffalo since 2005 with a 5.68 K/9 and .56 HR/9. Two of Sowers biggest issues were with his low strikeout rate and tendency to give up the long ball. Obviously, the trick is translating these improvements to the majors (if he even gets the opportunity). Unfortunately, I don’t see Sowers beating out Laffey or Lee for the fifth rotation spot, but the departure of Paul Byrd after 2008 leaves a better opportunity for Sowers next season.

The Challenger: Aaron Laffey

Laffey stormed through the minors last season, ending up as the Tribe’s fifth starter during their march towards the postseason. Laffey began 2007 with 6 starts in Akron and 16 in Buffalo before replacing the demoted Cliff Lee in early August. While he didn’t blow the doors off in his debut, Aaron proved he could handle pitching in the majors and was more than adequate in the fifth slot.

Over 49.3 IP, Laffey posted a 101 ERA+, 1.33 WHIP, and a 2.08 K/BB ratio. He only averaged 5.3 innings per start, but was held to a tight pitch count to ease his adjustment to the longer season. Aaron’s previous career high in innings pitched was 153.2 in the minors; he logged a combined 180.2 IP in the 2008 regular season for Akron, Buffalo, and Cleveland. Cleveland didn’t have to rely on their rookie starter to carry a game with such a strong relief corps available. The Tribe’s pitching depth also removed the need for Laffey to start in the postseason, but he did pitch 4.2 innings of one-hit ball in relief in Game 6 of the ALCS.

If Laffey is able to pick up where he left off in 2007, signs indicate he could be an upgrade for Cleveland at the back end of the rotation. Laffey tends to rely on the groundball, but still has the stuff to strike guys out. In 145.2 IP (24 starts) between Buffalo and Cleveland, he had a 2.85 K/BB ratio with a 59% groundball percentage in the majors. For comparison, Westbrook had a 1.69 K/BB ratio and a 55% groundball percentage in 152 IP for 2007. Depending on how Laffey’s pitches develop and how he performs over a larger sample, he could end up as a souped-up version of Westbrook. Aaron’s solid response to being promoted in the middle of a playoff run and pitching in the postseason suggest he is, at the very least, mentally mature enough to handle the majors.

Like we learned with Sowers in 2006 though, it’s wise not to lean too heavily on young, inexperienced pitching if you can help it. Given Aaron’s grand total of 49.1 major league innings, I would not be surprised if he begins the season in Buffalo as the Tribe’s sixth starter. I think Laffey can succeed in the majors now, but such a move would not be without risk. Demoting Lee to Buffalo again could cause some serious resentment by a guy who may end up as the team’s best option if Laffey doesn’t work out for some reason. Even worse, if Lee is traded and both Laffey and Sowers fail to make the cut, Cleveland ends up worse off than they started. The odds of both Laffey and Sowers performing worse than Lee are very small in my opinion, but these are risks the Front Office must consider nonetheless. Shapiro and Wedge’s track records indicate the more experienced pitcher will win out here (even if the potential payoff is not as great), meaning the 22 year old Laffey may have to wait for his next shot at the majors.

The Frontrunner: Cliff Lee

Despite my best efforts (i.e. complaining on the internet), Cliff Lee is still employed by the Cleveland Indians. I had predicted an imminent departure for Mr. Lee after he mockingly doffed his cap to a booing Jacobs Field crowd following a 4 IP, 8 R performance against Boston last July. While the Boston game did earn Lee a trip to Buffalo, Shapiro was unable to rid the Tribe of the Sleepy Kitten altogether. It’s unclear how aggressively Lee was being shopped, but Anthony Reyes was a rumored return at one point. Cleveland would have been hard pressed to find a logical trade for dumping Lee. Trading one mediocre pitcher for another may have gotten rid of Lee’s bad attitude, but the same rotation logjam would probably still be present (options and salary being the main factors for any newcomer).

Lee is back with a vengeance for 2008, bringing the same boneheaded approach to pitching that caused him to fall off a cliff and get demoted last season. Lee struggled in 2007 for two reasons: an abdominal strain that caused him to miss spring training and a dangerous reliance on a weakened fastball. Pitching coach Carl Willis saw Lee “trying to make some adjustments he needed to make when it counted, as opposed to during spring training.”

Normally, I would give a pitcher some leeway (I swear, this guy’s whole name is a pun) when he’s injured, like Westbrook was last season. The difference between Westbrook and Lee is that Westbrook gradually returned to form, while Lee never showed consistent signs of improvement after the injury. Lee posted monthly ERAs of 5.86, 4.76, and 8.68 from May to July, with at least five starts per month. Lee was supposedly healthy for most of this period. Unless the abdominal injury influenced Lee’s delivery far beyond his return from the DL, a less obvious factor may have been at work.

I believe the problem with Lee was mental, which may be even harder to fix than a pitcher’s mechanics. This brings us to issue number two: Lee’s pitch selection. Lee’s stubbornness in mixing up his pitches has been well documented. Despite guidance from his pitching coach and catcher, Lee can’t seem to get comfortable with anything other than his fastball. He is perfectly capable of throwing a solid curveball (arguably his best pitch), but still seems to think he can blow it by guys when he’s behind in the count. Ah…no. No he can’t. In interviews, Lee has acknowledged the need to mix up his pitches more so he’s less predictable, but a consistent approach has stayed out of reach for Clifford.

Last season, a combination of crappy pitching and an increasingly bad attitude resulted in a few awkward exchanges between Cliff and catcher Victor Martinez on the mound, followed by some harsh looking discussions in the dugout. If you get Victor mad at you, you must have really screwed up, since he’s probably one of the friendliest guys in the clubhouse. Part of the friction between Cliff and his catcher is that Victor takes pride in how he calls a game and views a pitcher’s failures as his own. Victor has a reputation of going the extra mile to help struggling pitchers. Rumors suggest Lee had frequently gone against advice given to him by teammates. If I were manager, I wouldn’t want a guy like that on the team if I had a better option (like Laffey).

Attitude aside, if a player can back up his behavior with his skills on the field, they usually earn a free pass (see Belle, Albert). Lee has gotten progressively worse ever since his career year in 2005:

Player	Year	GS	IP	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	FIP	K/BB
C. Lee	2005	32	202.0	3.79	111	1.21	3.80	2.75
	2006	33	200.7	4.40	103	1.40	4.80	2.22
	2007	16	97.3	6.29	73	1.52	5.59	1.83

Cliff’s performance has significantly declined in every category except innings pitched. To be blunt, he’s just giving up more of everything in dramatic fashion. His K/BB ratio is Exhibit A in showing how Lee’s lack of quality stuff and poor pitch selection has affected his stats. As a flyball pitcher, Lee is less susceptible to poor infield defense, but his FIP makes it safe to rule that out as a major factor.

I’m hesitant to beat up on Cliff Lee over his ERA in this case. Assuming 2005 is as good as it gets for Lee and 2007 was hampered by injury, his 2006 ERA of 4.40 is actually well above average for a fifth starter in the AL. Whaaaa? Yep, according to Jeff Sackmann at The Hardball Times, the top half of AL starting rotations averaged a 5.74 ERA for their fifth starter. AL playoff teams weren’t much better, sporting a 5.65 ERA in the fifth slot. I love this article because most fans (myself included) tend to forget just how mediocre a team’s bottom half of the rotation can be, even for a playoff contender. By that logic, if the front office can safely project an ERA in the neighborhood of 5.00 for Lee, that’s a comparable option to what the competition will be fielding.

My issue with Lee is that I’m not sure he can even achieve a league average ERA for a fifth starter anymore. Secondly, I take issue with his approach to pitching and how he’s treated his teammates and the fans. Guys like Laffey and Sowers have a greater upside in my opinion, albeit, the ceiling on those two is still unclear.

So why did I name him the front-runner to win the job out of spring training? Early reports out of camp indicated that the rotation spot was Lee’s to lose and given Wedge’s tendencies, I could realistically see him go with Lee. Cliff has more innings logged in the majors than Laffey and Sowers combined and as ridiculous as it may sound, does have some semblance of success at this level. Experience will be a huge factor in who Wedge selects and Lee has a significant edge in this department. Finally, Cleveland would be foolish to pay Lee $3.75 million to toil away in the minors another year; the only options are to play him or trade him. As much as I’d like Laffey to start in Cleveland this season, all signs indicate Lee will be there instead.

Sours Can't Get It Together Against Cincy

I'm trying to not get down on Sowers (honest), but he just can't seem to get it together this season. Against Cincinatti on Saturday, Sowers seemed to have a difficult time locating some of his pitches, missing the catcher's target. Cincinatti took advantage of anything that wasn't catching the extreme ends of the strikezone, resulting in a lot of long fly balls and a lot of scattered hits. Throw in the fact that Sowers rarely throws above 88 mph and it became pretty obvious, early on that this was a bad combination for Cleveland.

Sowers' performance would have been acceptable if it weren't for the two 3-run taters he gave up to Brandon Phillips and the catcher David Ross (not exactly the Bash Brothers). Hometown announcer Rick Manning put it best: "Three-run homers are not good." My thoughts exactly, thank you, Rick.

Despite his putrid ERA this year, Sowers is actually giving up homeruns at roughly the same pace he did last year. In 2006, Jeremy gave up 10 HR in 88.1 IP, with 5 HR in 41.2 IP for 2007. The problem, as indicated above, is that he is putting a lot more people on base. Opponents are slugging .471 (79 points higher than 2006) against Sowers, while his walks per game have increased from 2.1 last year to 3.0 this year. Do you really need stats to know Sowers is pitching poorly? No, but I was curious just how big of a gap there actually was between 2006 and 2007. Yeah, a pretty big one.

When I last wrote about Mr. Sowers, I was under the impression that he would put up a couple quality starts as he emerged from his funk, but I saw no sign of improvement against Cincinatti and he has now given up at least six earned runs in a game for three consecutive games. I'm convinced the Front Office has already made up its mind on Sowers and Carmona, there's just no way that you can send Carmona down. You just can't; the idea is absurd at this point. Sowers can't have much confidence left after getting thrashed for most of the season, while Carmona is earning praise from his opposition:

"He's not even human," Torii Hunter said following a shutout loss. "It was so scary, I thought I was hung over."

Twins outfielder Michael Cuddyer on Carmona: "There's no question -- we won't face anyone with better stuff. His stuff [on Thursday], in all my years in baseball, I haven't seen anything better."

I don't see how a young pitcher's confidence can be much lower at this point, so sending him to the minors might come as more of a relief than anything. It's a delicate situation, but Shapiro has a lot of experience dealing with young players at this point (learning from the good and the bad), so I trust the team to handle the situation properly. Jeremy will definitely have an opportunity to pitch for Cleveland again, but time is running out for this year.

Odd Man Out

Shapiro and Wedge may face a difficult decision when the time comes for Westbrook to return to the rotation. Fausto Carmona has taken full advantage of his 5 starts, going 3-1 with an outstanding 2.97 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Since struggling against Chicago in his first start, Carmona has contributed to wins over New York, Minnesota, and Baltimore (twice) going at least 6 innings with a 1.59 ERA in those four games.

Carmona has displayed his ability as a groundball pitcher this season with a 2.14 (60-28) groundball-flyball outs ratio with only 11 K's in 33.1 innings pitched. Despite the barrage of groundballs, the infield has only committed 2 groundball related errors with Carmona on the mound. What's even more encouraging, is Carmona has been able to overcome pitching in front of the 4th worst defense in the majors, despite relying on the defense to finish off a large majority of opposing batters.

The incumbent, Jeremy Sowers, has struggled to find his groove this year, posting a 6.56 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and no wins in 7 starts. Sowers has not been horrible, with 4 quality starts to 3 poor ones, but has had a startling lack of consistency compared to his performance last year. The Ohio native has gotten roughed up by Baltimore and LA in his last two outings, giving up 12 runs in only 7 innings pitched.

It's difficult to say what is causing Sowers' performance to fluctuate so much this early in the season, but hitters making adjustments to a young pitcher may be a major factor. Mechanics are definitely a contributing factor, as Sowers relies on precise, consistent placement of his pitches rather than power. In his last two starts, Sowers had an obvious problem finding the strikezone or fooling many batters. I have a lot of confidence in Sowers, but I am wondering whether or not he is completely healthy right now, since he hasn't shown any mechanical problems before this season.

A trip to Buffalo to work out any kinks may end up hurting Sowers' confidence in the long run, causing him to look over his shoulder once he returns to the rotation. On the other hand, Carmona has proven he is ready to help the major league club and has been the best starting pitcher not named Charles Carsten. Sowers is young, with only 21 starts under his belt, but he at least deserves a chance to keep the job he earned last season, with or without Carmona waiting in the wings.

Sowers Struggles, Bullpen Demands Vacation

Game 27 at Baltimore

Jeremy Sower's smoke and mirrors weren't fooling the Orioles on Saturday, as they chased him after two innings while scoring six earned runs. Sowers didn't have his usual focus and had trouble finding the strike zone. The pitches that did make it in got crushed by the Oriole's lineup as their consistent attack plated six runs on six hits.

Sowers usually pitches with ice water in his veins, but was visibly rattled on the mound and in the dugout as he watched his handiwork fly around the ballpark. The main problem was a lack of control, resulting in a lot of flat balls that were easily hit. So far this year, Sowers has put up four quality starts with two clunkers sandwiched in between. The New York game is a difficult one to criticize, since the defense was a prime contributor to the loss, but the Baltimore game was all on Sowers. Hopefully Jeremy was just having an off-day and gets his command back by the next start.

The highlight of Saturday's game was the season debut of Rafael Perez, who had a nice 1-2-3 5th inning in relief. Perez was called up from Buffalo to relieve pressure on the tired bullpen staff and will probably be sent back down once Marte is ready to return. Perez's breaking pitches looked filthy as he pitched the last three innings of the game.

Game 28 at Baltimore

It took two games, but the Cleveland offense finally showed up to play on Sunday, as they backed up C.C. Sabathia in a 9-6 win at Camden Yards. The Orioles threatened to blow the game wide open in the sixth inning, but Grady Sizemore made a ridiculous, two-out, full-extension catch to rob Corey Patterson and strand three Orioles.

Sizemore's catch quite possibly saved the game, as the bullpen gave up three runs in the 8th and 9th innings to make the final score 9-6. The only thing bigger than Sizemore's awesomeness was Trot Nixon dropping the Grit Bomb on Baltimore's pitching today. Trot had a career high 5 hits, with 4 RBI and 2 runs, showing the kids how it's done. I'm still in the party that everyone on the team should sport Trot's fu-manchu look, how scary would that be? Alright, not that scary, but team-wide facial hair would automatically raise the team's GORP (grit above replacement player) to a 1.8.

The bullpen is definitely feeling the effects of pitching so many innings the last two series. Between the multiple extra inning games, Cliff Lee's inability to go 7 innings, and Sower's 2 inning breakdown, the pen has been working overtime. Cabrera and Betancourt looked gassed today as they gave up three runs, forcing Wedge to bring Borowski in to finish off the last batter in the ninth.

Managing the bullpen at a time like this is very difficult. While the relief corp has been one of the team's greatest strengths this season, it is going to need to see a reduction in appearances to get back on track and stay strong over the long haul. Quality outings from the starters are a must, but that's easier said than done. I was very happy to see Wedge go with Davis and Perez in long relief on Saturday, essentially conceding the game (which the flailing offense finished off anyway), but giving the late inning guys a break.

Things should settle down though, as the number of extra inning games will recede to the mean and Sowers and Westbrook start churning out quality starts like they did all last year.