Happy Opening Day Tribe Fans!

Your Starting Lineups

Grady shows Mark Buehrle what he thinks of his pitching.

Yeah that's totally not interference, Hawk.
Breaking through in the bottom of the eighth.
Hero of the Day (really).
Go Tribe!

Opening Day: the Sequel and Fun with Rosters

It's Opening Day! Again.

It seems Major League Baseball decided to expand the (much deserved) hype of Opening Day for as long as possible. Technically, the season started last Tuesday when the Tokyo Red Sox faced off against the Oakland A's for two games. Was anyone else frightened by the sight of 50,000 Japanese Sox fans crammed into the Tokyo Dome? I guess if you put down $100 mil for a pitcher, it doesn't seem so bad knowing you just gained an entire country as a fan base. Either way, more Red Sox fans is not what this world needs. I'm curious how Boston's obvious lack of enthusiasm to represent MLB abroad by playing in Japan went over with the fans there. Yeah, real classy to publicly hold out for more monetary compensation Boston, it's not like you couldn't handle that in private. But I digress....

Opening Day Part II is on Sunday, but only features one game. I know it's a historic event, with the Nats kicking off the season in their brand-new, uber-cool stadium, but the schedule makers couldn't find room for the rest of the teams to play? I wish the regular season would start all at once or at least split the games over a couple days, preferably on the weekend. Many fans treat Opening Day with such reverence that it might as well be a national holiday. Just think of all the marketing and media coverage that goes into the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament; now imagine that same frenzy over two full days of baseball games. I doubt anything like that is going to happen, but there's plenty of money to be made if MLB were to play its cards right.

The Tribe starts their defense of the Central Division crown on Monday against Chicago. Unfortunately, we didn't make the national broadcast that day, but that doesn't mean Tribe fans can't enjoy the first of 50 games ESPN has set for the Yankees this season! That Steinbrenner kid is such a character, I can't wait to hear what he'll say next. I bet A-Rod hits for the cycle twice in that game. Hello? Where'd everybody go?

Marte In

Andy Marte became one of the final players to make the Tribe's 25-man roster earlier this week. He will join Jamey Carroll, David Dellucci, and Kelly Shoppach on the bench. According to Manager Eric Wedge:

We'll see Andy mixed in at third base when we give Casey a day off. I think we'd be comfortable putting him [at first] if we needed him over there.

Backup third baseman is obviously the best fit for Marte this season, but how much playing time can he expect behind Blake? Last season, Blake had 145 appearances at 3b, 12 at 1b, 7 in RF, and 1 as DH. It's doubtful Blake will see any significant time in the outfield with Gutz, Dellucci, and Michaels already on the roster and Francisco and Choo waiting in the wings. Assuming Blake remains relatively healthy, that would mean Marte would get just 17 appearances at third; not a realistic number. If Marte were to start once a week at third (similar to the rotation of Martinez and Shoppach at catcher), that would translate to roughly 30 starts, or 120 at-bats.

I agree that the starting third base job is Blake's to lose and he has done nothing to merit a demotion. This puts Wedge in a tricky situation when dealing with Marte though. The Indians really need to find creative ways to get Marte up to the plate on a regular basis. Marte has had several cups of coffee at the major league level, but never a large sample of at-bats in a single season. Below are Marte's previous appearances in the majors:

Year	Age	Team	PA	H	HR	SB	BB	SO	OBP	SLG
2005	21	ATL	66	8	0	0	7	13	.227	.211
2006	22	CLE	178	37	5	0	13	38	.287	.421
2007	23	CLE	60	11	1	0	2	9	.233	.316

There are two things that stand out in Marte's old stat lines. The first is how few plate appearances he's had. Marte was supposed to start 2007 on the roster, but an injury and the steady play of Blake left him stranded in Buffalo. Considering Blake had 662 PA in 156 games last season, Marte has not been given a legitimate chance to prove himself yet. The second item of interest is Marte's age. He may have been an elite prospect in Atlanta, but how many 22 year olds are capable of making an immediately successful transition from the minors? Not many. Marte also has a reputation as a slow starter. It seems every time he starts to settle in somewhere, he gets moved, resetting his progress.

There is some uncertainty with Marte, like his inconsistent defense and what he'll really do at the plate if given the chance. Marte helped his cause by posting a .333 OBP, .519 SLG, and 5 HR in 54 AB in spring training. Unfortunately, he also committed 6 errors at third. If Cleveland sees any substantial value in Marte for the future they will have to perform their final evaluation on the fly this season. With no minor league options left, Marte may be off the team by 2009 if the Tribe doesn't like what it sees in 2008.

Francisco and Barfield Out

Josh Barfield and Ben Francisco will be starting the season in AAA. I agree with the Barfield move, but Francisco really should be in Cleveland this year. If there was a better platoon alternative than Dellucci in left field I could understand, but sending Ben back to Buffalo is a waste of everyone's time. Francisco had 12 HR, 22 SB, a .382 OBP, and a .496 SLG and won the International League MVP in Buffalo last season. There's nothing left for him to prove in the minors, especially at 25 years old. Lets take a quick look at stats for Michaels, Dellucci, and Francisco for 2007:

Player	PA	H	HR	BB	SB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS+
J. Michaels	295	72	7	20	3	50	.324	.397	87
D. Dellucci	199	41	4	17	2	40	.296	.382	76
B. Francisco	66	17	3	3	0	19	.303	.500	105

Not to jump to conclusions due to the small sample size, but Francisco clearly outplayed Dellucci during his stint in Cleveland. Francisco's .814 career OPS against righties also fits in nicely with Michaels' career OPS of .842 against lefties. Dellucci may not even be 100% healthy this season (he had surgery last year to repair a torn hamstring). His salary would be easy to dump and after putting up with the Trot Nixon experiment last year, I'm not sure Dellucci has really earned a spot on the roster. If his veteran status and $3.75 million contract are the main reasons for him making the roster, that hardly seems fair. Not giving Dellucci a chance to defend his job after an injury-filled season is no way to treat a player either, so maybe I'm being a bit harsh. Regardless of salary, I can't see Dellucci getting much leeway this season with two viable alternatives in Francisco and (later on) Choo. I predict a mid-season call up for one of the two young outfielders.

There's really not much to say about Barfield. I had a hunch he would at least start the season in Buffalo, which is good because his offense has been terrible since arriving in Cleveland. Josh had a .270 OBP and .324 SLG in 444 PA for 2007 (no, that OBP isn't a typo). The good news is, Barfield still has an above average glove and has just two full years of major league experience. If he can find his swing again in AAA, Josh will certainly be in the running for the 2009 starting infield. The bad news is, it will take a mammoth effort in AAA from Barfield and an abysmal start from Asdrubal to dislodge him from second base. I'm rooting for him, but don't expect to see much of Barfield this season.

Finally...

I haven't had much time to investigate Fultz's replacement, Craig Breslow, but that's what the internet is for. Jay over at LGT has a nice breakdown of Fultz's departure, while the community chimes in on Breslow. Good stuff.

The Contenders

I’ve been on a brief hiatus from blogging this month, but will do my best to keep the site updated. My work load has been a little crazy with graduation on the horizon and the last few weeks I haven’t had much time to read up on baseball, let alone write about it. As a result, the next few topics have probably already been written about by a classier, more intelligent website, but since Ontario Street is neither of these things I’ll be happy to fill the void.

There hasn’t been a lot of drama for the Tribe this offseason, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It’s unusual for a team to appear in the ALCS one year and have every starter return for round two, yet that’s the enviable position Cleveland is in this season. Due to the lack of roster turnover, there aren’t any major newcomers to scrutinize (except Masa, who has no MLB experience), but there are question marks above third base and the fifth slot in the rotation. There is even room for speculation about the corner outfield spots and second base, although those positions are less likely to be set in stone during the spring.

According to the Plain Dealer, the race for the fifth rotation slot is still closely contested. Manager Eric Wedge said his staff is “going to have to take it as long as we can. We want to give them all a very good look and utilize as much of camp as we can." It’s likely that a final decision won’t be made before the Tribe breaks camp on March 27. I normally don’t give Spring Training performances much thought, but since spring stats may play a key role in who wins the fifth slot out of camp, let’s take a look at where each pitcher stands:

Pitcher	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/BB	Last Appearance
C. Lee	8.2	8.31	2.56	1.25	4 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 2 SO, 1 BB
A. Laffey	8.0	7.62	2.00	.72	5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 SO, 1 BB
J. Sowers	8.0	9.00	2.00	1.33	3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 SO, 0 BB

I didn’t realize just how few innings each starting pitcher logs in camp, so there’s not much to work with in terms of stats (that and these guys are essentially facing a AAAA team that hasn’t quite found its bat speed yet). Unfortunately, what makes these stats even more one-dimensional are the things like pitch movement, velocity, inherited runners, quality of opposition, etc. that are not included. Wedge and company will be paying much closer attention to how each candidate actually pitches rather than what they post in the box score. For example, is Cliff Lee using a smarter pitch selection than last year? If yes, that’ll earn him a feather in the cap.

It’s safe to assume none of the players are ready for opening day just yet, but that doesn’t mean pitchers can’t show improvement in their mechanics or strategy. Unfortunately I’ve only seen the one ESPN game against the Mets, so I can’t really give a fair assessment on how Sowers, Laffey, and Lee have looked this spring.

The Darkhorse: Jeremy Sowers

I’m really rooting for Sowers to make it in the majors, but he probably carries the most uncertainty of the three candidates. After coming out of nowhere with back-to-back complete game shutouts in July and a 2.78 ERA in five August starts, Sowers appeared to be a prospect on the rise. Despite lacking dominant stuff, Sowers tripped up batters with his precise location and high pitching IQ. The trouble started in 2007 when the incumbent Sowers seemed to hit a wall. Batters appeared to have figured out his smoke and mirrors routine and his ERA jumped from 3.57 in 2006 to 6.42 in 2007 with nearly the same number of starts.

Player	Year	GS	IP	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	FIP	K/BB
J. Sowers	2006	14	88.3	3.57	127	1.18	4.65	1.75
	2007	13	67.3	6.42	72	1.55	5.62	1.14

One explanation is that Sowers may have been riding luck in 2006. His .256 BABIP and 76.3% LOB% suggest that luck may have indeed been a factor in Sowers’ first 14 appearances. According to Baseball Prospectus, a typical BABIP is .290, so some regression by Sowers would be expected. The high amount of runners stranded only adds to the impression that Sowers may have been walking a tightrope early on. In 2007, Sowers’ BABIP jumped to .308, while his LOB% dropped to 63.2%. More balls finding the gaps meant Sowers’ other peripherals suffered as well, including a .106 jump in his SLG against (.392 to .498). For a more in-depth breakdown on Sowers’ 2006 season, check out this link (there are three parts to the article). It’s to a Tribe blog that I’ve never heard of before, but the writer has some great stuff, particularly in retrospect.

Another issue with Sowers was that he began to lose some velocity on his fastball, which originally hovered in the high 80s to low 90s. A mix of lost confidence and mechanical issues plagued Sowers and resulted in an early demotion in 2007. Since then, Sowers has reportedly regained his pitch velocity and showed signs of improvement during his stint in Buffalo last season. Sowers posted some of his best numbers in Buffalo since 2005 with a 5.68 K/9 and .56 HR/9. Two of Sowers biggest issues were with his low strikeout rate and tendency to give up the long ball. Obviously, the trick is translating these improvements to the majors (if he even gets the opportunity). Unfortunately, I don’t see Sowers beating out Laffey or Lee for the fifth rotation spot, but the departure of Paul Byrd after 2008 leaves a better opportunity for Sowers next season.

The Challenger: Aaron Laffey

Laffey stormed through the minors last season, ending up as the Tribe’s fifth starter during their march towards the postseason. Laffey began 2007 with 6 starts in Akron and 16 in Buffalo before replacing the demoted Cliff Lee in early August. While he didn’t blow the doors off in his debut, Aaron proved he could handle pitching in the majors and was more than adequate in the fifth slot.

Over 49.3 IP, Laffey posted a 101 ERA+, 1.33 WHIP, and a 2.08 K/BB ratio. He only averaged 5.3 innings per start, but was held to a tight pitch count to ease his adjustment to the longer season. Aaron’s previous career high in innings pitched was 153.2 in the minors; he logged a combined 180.2 IP in the 2008 regular season for Akron, Buffalo, and Cleveland. Cleveland didn’t have to rely on their rookie starter to carry a game with such a strong relief corps available. The Tribe’s pitching depth also removed the need for Laffey to start in the postseason, but he did pitch 4.2 innings of one-hit ball in relief in Game 6 of the ALCS.

If Laffey is able to pick up where he left off in 2007, signs indicate he could be an upgrade for Cleveland at the back end of the rotation. Laffey tends to rely on the groundball, but still has the stuff to strike guys out. In 145.2 IP (24 starts) between Buffalo and Cleveland, he had a 2.85 K/BB ratio with a 59% groundball percentage in the majors. For comparison, Westbrook had a 1.69 K/BB ratio and a 55% groundball percentage in 152 IP for 2007. Depending on how Laffey’s pitches develop and how he performs over a larger sample, he could end up as a souped-up version of Westbrook. Aaron’s solid response to being promoted in the middle of a playoff run and pitching in the postseason suggest he is, at the very least, mentally mature enough to handle the majors.

Like we learned with Sowers in 2006 though, it’s wise not to lean too heavily on young, inexperienced pitching if you can help it. Given Aaron’s grand total of 49.1 major league innings, I would not be surprised if he begins the season in Buffalo as the Tribe’s sixth starter. I think Laffey can succeed in the majors now, but such a move would not be without risk. Demoting Lee to Buffalo again could cause some serious resentment by a guy who may end up as the team’s best option if Laffey doesn’t work out for some reason. Even worse, if Lee is traded and both Laffey and Sowers fail to make the cut, Cleveland ends up worse off than they started. The odds of both Laffey and Sowers performing worse than Lee are very small in my opinion, but these are risks the Front Office must consider nonetheless. Shapiro and Wedge’s track records indicate the more experienced pitcher will win out here (even if the potential payoff is not as great), meaning the 22 year old Laffey may have to wait for his next shot at the majors.

The Frontrunner: Cliff Lee

Despite my best efforts (i.e. complaining on the internet), Cliff Lee is still employed by the Cleveland Indians. I had predicted an imminent departure for Mr. Lee after he mockingly doffed his cap to a booing Jacobs Field crowd following a 4 IP, 8 R performance against Boston last July. While the Boston game did earn Lee a trip to Buffalo, Shapiro was unable to rid the Tribe of the Sleepy Kitten altogether. It’s unclear how aggressively Lee was being shopped, but Anthony Reyes was a rumored return at one point. Cleveland would have been hard pressed to find a logical trade for dumping Lee. Trading one mediocre pitcher for another may have gotten rid of Lee’s bad attitude, but the same rotation logjam would probably still be present (options and salary being the main factors for any newcomer).

Lee is back with a vengeance for 2008, bringing the same boneheaded approach to pitching that caused him to fall off a cliff and get demoted last season. Lee struggled in 2007 for two reasons: an abdominal strain that caused him to miss spring training and a dangerous reliance on a weakened fastball. Pitching coach Carl Willis saw Lee “trying to make some adjustments he needed to make when it counted, as opposed to during spring training.”

Normally, I would give a pitcher some leeway (I swear, this guy’s whole name is a pun) when he’s injured, like Westbrook was last season. The difference between Westbrook and Lee is that Westbrook gradually returned to form, while Lee never showed consistent signs of improvement after the injury. Lee posted monthly ERAs of 5.86, 4.76, and 8.68 from May to July, with at least five starts per month. Lee was supposedly healthy for most of this period. Unless the abdominal injury influenced Lee’s delivery far beyond his return from the DL, a less obvious factor may have been at work.

I believe the problem with Lee was mental, which may be even harder to fix than a pitcher’s mechanics. This brings us to issue number two: Lee’s pitch selection. Lee’s stubbornness in mixing up his pitches has been well documented. Despite guidance from his pitching coach and catcher, Lee can’t seem to get comfortable with anything other than his fastball. He is perfectly capable of throwing a solid curveball (arguably his best pitch), but still seems to think he can blow it by guys when he’s behind in the count. Ah…no. No he can’t. In interviews, Lee has acknowledged the need to mix up his pitches more so he’s less predictable, but a consistent approach has stayed out of reach for Clifford.

Last season, a combination of crappy pitching and an increasingly bad attitude resulted in a few awkward exchanges between Cliff and catcher Victor Martinez on the mound, followed by some harsh looking discussions in the dugout. If you get Victor mad at you, you must have really screwed up, since he’s probably one of the friendliest guys in the clubhouse. Part of the friction between Cliff and his catcher is that Victor takes pride in how he calls a game and views a pitcher’s failures as his own. Victor has a reputation of going the extra mile to help struggling pitchers. Rumors suggest Lee had frequently gone against advice given to him by teammates. If I were manager, I wouldn’t want a guy like that on the team if I had a better option (like Laffey).

Attitude aside, if a player can back up his behavior with his skills on the field, they usually earn a free pass (see Belle, Albert). Lee has gotten progressively worse ever since his career year in 2005:

Player	Year	GS	IP	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	FIP	K/BB
C. Lee	2005	32	202.0	3.79	111	1.21	3.80	2.75
	2006	33	200.7	4.40	103	1.40	4.80	2.22
	2007	16	97.3	6.29	73	1.52	5.59	1.83

Cliff’s performance has significantly declined in every category except innings pitched. To be blunt, he’s just giving up more of everything in dramatic fashion. His K/BB ratio is Exhibit A in showing how Lee’s lack of quality stuff and poor pitch selection has affected his stats. As a flyball pitcher, Lee is less susceptible to poor infield defense, but his FIP makes it safe to rule that out as a major factor.

I’m hesitant to beat up on Cliff Lee over his ERA in this case. Assuming 2005 is as good as it gets for Lee and 2007 was hampered by injury, his 2006 ERA of 4.40 is actually well above average for a fifth starter in the AL. Whaaaa? Yep, according to Jeff Sackmann at The Hardball Times, the top half of AL starting rotations averaged a 5.74 ERA for their fifth starter. AL playoff teams weren’t much better, sporting a 5.65 ERA in the fifth slot. I love this article because most fans (myself included) tend to forget just how mediocre a team’s bottom half of the rotation can be, even for a playoff contender. By that logic, if the front office can safely project an ERA in the neighborhood of 5.00 for Lee, that’s a comparable option to what the competition will be fielding.

My issue with Lee is that I’m not sure he can even achieve a league average ERA for a fifth starter anymore. Secondly, I take issue with his approach to pitching and how he’s treated his teammates and the fans. Guys like Laffey and Sowers have a greater upside in my opinion, albeit, the ceiling on those two is still unclear.

So why did I name him the front-runner to win the job out of spring training? Early reports out of camp indicated that the rotation spot was Lee’s to lose and given Wedge’s tendencies, I could realistically see him go with Lee. Cliff has more innings logged in the majors than Laffey and Sowers combined and as ridiculous as it may sound, does have some semblance of success at this level. Experience will be a huge factor in who Wedge selects and Lee has a significant edge in this department. Finally, Cleveland would be foolish to pay Lee $3.75 million to toil away in the minors another year; the only options are to play him or trade him. As much as I’d like Laffey to start in Cleveland this season, all signs indicate Lee will be there instead.

Cavaliers Clean House, Add Playoff Pieces

Friday’s game against the Wizards was like watching a really expensive pick-up game with all the unfamiliar players on the floor. Ten of the fifteen players on the roster were either inactive or signed as emergency injury replacements. The starting five consisted of LeBron, Z, and what’s left of the Cleveland bench after the trade. Despite the plethora of journeymen, spare parts, and D-Leaguers on the floor, Cleveland was able to steal a win against the struggling Wizards. You know you’re in a nasty losing streak when Damon Jones personally destroys your defense. Jones hit seven 3-pointers and combined with LeBron for 60 points. It’s as if Jones was inspired by the recently departed Larry Hughes (Jones will go 2-20 next game as a tribute to Larry’s legacy in Cleveland).

Meanwhile, the newest Cavs were stuck in a sky box, munching on hot wings and looking kind of bored. It’s too bad these guys can’t play before taking a physical because having to entertain Danny Ferry for three hours can’t be much fun. The best part of the whole game was the look on Wally Szczerbiak’s face after LeBron dropped a one-handed jam through traffic; the poor guy just had this terrified “wow” on his face as the camera panned over.

On the Trade

The more I think about Ferry’s deadline deal, the more I like it. The only player I was sad to see moved was Gooden, but his contract was good for only one more season anyway and it was unclear how interested Cleveland was in resigning him. The departure of Larry Hughes, his jump shot, and his contract is awesome. In fact, that may be my favorite part of the trade. Ferry rolled the dice with his deadline deal and is relying on a rebound (no pun intended) from Wallace and reliable production from Szczerbiak and West. The payoff could be significant, but with the way the payroll is structured and the fact that most of the departed were dead weight anyway, the risk does not seem particularly high on Cleveland’s end.

I think Ferry really redeemed himself with the trade. First of all, he made LeBron happy (sort of). Second, he was able to dump various unproductive experiments like Shannon Brown and Hughes while getting real value in return. He even got a partial refund for the draft pick wasted on Brown in the form of a 2^nd rounder in 2009 from Chicago. Ferry was able to improve the team on multiple fronts, while maintaining payroll flexibility for the future (no easy task).

I tried to address the impact of the trade on Cleveland by going through each new player and how they may fit in. We’ll know Coach Brown’s rotations for sure when the Cavs face Memphis on Sunday.

Ben Wallace

Position: Center
Age: 33
Vitals: 6-9, 240

Wallace will be expected to fill the rebounding void that Drew Gooden left behind. Wallace is averaging 8.8 RPG, but has the potential to be an even greater force off the boards. Unlike Gooden, who was unlikely to exceed more than 8.5 RPG this season, Wallace has historically been a much better rebounder. Wallace averaged 10.6 rebounds just a year ago with Chicago and will likely outperform Gooden this season, even with a down season.

Wallace’s trademark is his tough interior defense. He’s earned a reputation as an enforcer and should get the job done on defense where Ilgauskas occasionally seems overmatched. It will be interesting to see how Wallace does in Coach Brown’s defensive scheme against dynamic big men like Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard. The Cavaliers are betting on a resurgent Wallace to shut down Boston and Detroit’s size inside during the playoffs.

Wallace’s kryptonite is his offense and has averaged just 6.2 PPG over the past three seasons. There’s really not much to say other than it’s terrible and isn’t going to contribute to many wins. There is a chance Wallace could take advantage of all the attention LeBron receives on the perimeter and get some extra scoring opportunities inside, but I doubt much will change in that regard. If the Cavs are smart in who they surround Wallace with, his offensive shortcomings won’t be as prevalent. It will be interesting to see if Varejao and Wallace switch it up at forward and center. I’m not sure Varejao is able to handle more offensive responsibility, but he’s shooting a career best this season with 7.8 PPG and a .511 FG%. Varejao may earn more minutes regardless with Gooden gone. A second configuration could be Wallace at forward and Z at center, giving the Cavs extra size on defense while maintaining a mid-range threat in Z.

After coming off so many winning seasons with the Pistons, it’s possible that Wallace’s frustration with the Bull’s terrible season was coming out in his performance. There’s still a risk Wallace will continue to play his worst since the ’99-‘00 season, but a change of scenery and a winning environment could go a long way. I predict a strong bounce-back from Big Ben as the season wraps up.

Wally Szczerbiak

Position: Forward
Age: 30
Vitals: 6-7, 244

The addition of Szczerbiak will provide LeBron with a badly needed sniper to pair with Daniel Gibson. In the short-term, Szczerbiak will allow the Cavs to maintain their three-point game while Gibson’s ankle heals over the next six weeks. Having Szczerbiak and Gibson on the floor may benefit LeBron the most by drawing some of the defensive pressure off him and directing it to the perimeter. Damon Jones may also see more minutes in Gibson’s absence. Jones has quietly posted a .428 3PT% this season, matching Wally’s percentage. Szczerbiak is not as feared a shooter as Gibson this year, but should be an effective weapon coming off the bench.

Unfortunately, all Szczerbiak is really good for is shooting; the rest of his stats are weak across the board. To be fair, I’m not sure how much of Szczerbiak’s sagging stats are from his role on the bench in Seattle and he may be a more complete player than the numbers indicate. It’s ironic that the two headliners in this trade appear to be complete opposites, with one specializing in defense and the other offense. I think Szczerbiak’s offensive production will be able to compensate for the loss of Hughes or Gooden, but not both. Given how maddeningly inconsistent Hughes was this season, finding alternative options on offense may not be too difficult once the Cavs get healthy again.

Delonte West

Position: Guard
Age: 24
Vitals: 6-4, 180

West will likely get the nod as starting point guard for now, but I would like to see Gibson take over that role later in the season. Neither guard will have to worry about setting up the offense all the time, given James’ playmaking ability and leadership role. I haven’t heard much about West, but he seems to be lacking in opportunities during his career. He averaged 32.1 minutes per game while posting 12.2 points, 3.2 assists, 2.8 rebounds, and a solid .427 FG% with Boston last season. West’s performance took a dip in Seattle this year, shooting .388.

According to Branson Wright of the Plain Dealer, West is “a point guard who can run the pick and roll, run the offense and more importantly, knock down the open shot.” West appears to have the potential to be a decent point guard if surrounded by quality players to facilitate his skills. The lack of talent and reduction in minutes in Seattle may be the culprit behind West’s poor season so far. I think West may be a pleasant surprise for Cleveland if given the opportunity.

Joe Smith

Position: Forward
Age: 32
Vitals: 6-10, 225

The one thing I keep hearing about Joe Smith is how overlooked he has been in this trade. I would have to agree, since Smith will be a significant upgrade over Donyell Marshall and helps to bolster the new-look Cavs bench. Smith is averaging 11.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and a .466 FG% on 22.9 minutes per game. For comparison, Marshall averaged 3.7 PPG on a .295 FG% and has only played in 11 games this season due to injury. While Smith does not shoot beyond the arc like Marshall, he will provide the Cavs with strong interior scoring off the bench.

On Payroll

Cleveland’s overall payroll will increase by $4.5 million this season, but the quality of the players they’ll be paying is higher than before the trade. Hughes, Gooden, Marshall, Simmons, Newble, and Brown will make a total of $30 million this year. The biggest reason for the post-trade payroll jump is Szczerbiak’s $12 million salary being almost twice as much as Gooden’s. If the Cavs decide they don’t need Szczerbiak after this season, his expiring contract could be easy to move.

Cleveland Contracts Moved (data from Hoops Hype):

Arriving Player	07-'08	08-'09	09-'10	10-'11
B. Wallace	$15,500,000	$14,500,000	$14,000,000	$0
W. Szczerbiak	$12,000,000	$13,000,000	$0
D. West	$1,889,759	$2,762,828	$0
J. Smith	$5,200,000	$0
Total:	$34,589,759	$30,262,828	$14,000,000
Departing Player
L. Hughes	$12,000,084	$12,827,676	$13,655,268	$0
D. Gooden	$6,400,000	$7,100,000	$0
D. Marshall	$5,566,965	$5,950,894	$0
I. Newble	$3,441,900	$0
C. Simmons	$1,629,120	$1,742,760	$0
S. Brown	$1,044,120	$0
Total:	$30,082,189	$27,621,330	$13,655,268
Difference:	+$4,507,570	+$2,641,498	+$3,44,732

Wallace and Hughes are the highest paid players involved, but both have the same contract lengths. The bonus with Wallace is that he’ll become cheaper as his contract expires, while Hughes will get almost $1 million more each season. I also believe Wallace will provide more value than Hughes over the remainder of his contract.

Overall, the Cavs did not take on any extra contract years, providing them flexibility to make a free agent signing as these contracts expire or get moved before 2010. Depending on how well the Cavs draft picks work out, the aging roster could clear out just as the younger players are ready to step up.

Boobie Shoots, Howard Flies at All Star Fest

The Cavs' Daniel Gibson received an invitation to the NBA All Star game's three point shootout on Saturday. While he didn't clinch his second trophy of the weekend, Gibson still had a respectable second place finish behind reigning champion Jason Kapono. Gibson scored 17 points in both rounds, finishing ahead of Richard Hamilton, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, and Peja Stojakovic. Kapono tied former Cavalier Mark Price's record, with 24 points in the final round of the event. I know it's all just for fun, but I think it's exciting to see any Cleveland team represented in an All Star event (seriously, how awesome is it to see Boobie walk onto the court between Nowitzki and Nash?). Gibson actually did better than I expected, since it was his first All Star weekend and he was probably a little nervous.

The night before, Gibson went crazy in the Rookie-Sophomore game. Boobie nailed a record 11 three pointers on 20 shots and walked away with the game's MVP award. Judging by the 136-109 score, these guys weren't playing much defense anyway, but at least Gibson got a good workout in over the break.

The real highlight of the night was Dwight Howard's real-life interpretation of NBA Jam. Howard may have single-handedly saved the flagging, 31 year old dunk contest with his creativity and showmanship. Many fans were comparing the originality, difficulty, and athleticism of Howard's dunks with those of Vince Carter back in 2000. I'd put Howard's series of three dunks in the top five of all time, easy. There's really no point in my describing the dunks further, but if you haven't seen them by now, they are worth a look. The Superman dunk can be found at the 2:40 mark:


The technical difficulty of Howard's first dunk was superior in my opinion, but the entertainment factor and sheer power of his Superman dunk makes it my personal favorite. I can't remember the last time I enjoyed a slam dunk contest that much. It's too bad LeBron has never given it a go given the insane elevation he can get on his dunks.

Parting Ways

I'm not exactly known for my optimism when it comes to the Indians, but I've been forcing myself all off-season to believe Sabathia would sign a contract extension before Spring Training. The odds of that happening took a near fatal blow yesterday as Sabathia posted an announcement on his official website that contract negotiations would be called off until after the 2008 season. Here's the meat of the announcement:

There will be time after the season for the Indians and my representatives to discuss my contract status. I remain hopeful that these discussions will result in a contract extension that will keep me with the franchise for many years to come. In the meantime, in order to avoid any distractions, my representatives and I will not make any further comment about my contractual situation beyond this statement.

First off, why was this announcement made through Sabathia's website and not as an official press release on the team website? According to Anthony Castrovince, "Shortly before he posted a message on his official Web site Wednesday night, [Sabathia] told the Indians what he was about to tell the rest of the world." That alone indicates a significant breakdown in negotiations, as if Sabathia's party had left Shapiro hanging in limbo much earlier. The situation is bad enough as it is, but it seems awfully suspect when a player informs a team he's breaking off negotiations at the same time he makes a public announcement on his own. That's not in line with how the Tribe usually does business and makes this sound even worse.

I don't think the way Westbrook and Hafner's negotiations were renewed and finalized after the regular season started are a valid comparison to Sabathia's situation. According to Shapiro, "there's not a lot of common ground" between the Tribe and Sabathia right now. Westbrook and Hafner were much closer to agreeing on the contracts' terms by the time the season started, thus making it possible for a quick resolution. If Sabathia were open to negotiating during the season (he's not), it would probably drag on for most of the season, at least.

Sabathia says extending negotiations into the season would be a distraction, but lets be honest here: his presence at the bargaining table has been minimal so far. Sabathia's agents are the ones doing the negotiating, so what kind of distraction is he referring to? I'm willing to question if Sabathia has even discussed his contract with Shapiro in person at this point. If both sides were still dedicated to getting a deal done, you can bet talks would have extended until April.

Frankly, I'm tired of all the BS being thrown around. Sabathia has said all the right things and maintained a positive demeanor throughout the off-season, but it's now perfectly clear that whatever loyalty he may have had to Cleveland is gone. I'm not saying Sabathia should have blindly taken the first contract put on the table, although reports indicate it was comparable to those of Roy Oswalt, Mark Buehrle, and Jake Peavy (5 years at $17-18 mil a year, including 2008). My point is that even with all the fluffy sound bites being leaked from both parties, the drive to reach a compromise has clearly died.

From a business standpoint, Sabathia is subjecting himself to significant risk in waiting until free agency. Jay at LGT sums up the gamble Sabathia is taking in snubbing the Tribe's offer:

There is no conceivable reason why he wouldn't instruct his attorneys to strike the best deal possible right now. At this moment, his value is at its peak, and he faces significant risk of a devaluing (or even career-ending) injury in the coming year. He simply stands far more to gain by re-signing with the Indians now rather than doing so at the end of the season, and the Indians' bottom line is not going to move much in that time. The inescapable conclusion, therefore, is that he does not intend to settle for a shorter contractual commitment with the Indians, now or at any future point.

I agree, in that Sabathia's value is at its peak and he is taking a big risk on being healthy at the end of the season. Jay is also correct in stating that the team's offer is not likely to change much in the future. It would have been foolish for Shapiro to not put the best offer on the table during the team's last shot at exclusive negotiations with its ace pitcher.

The only comparable value Cleveland will take from retaining Sabathia in his final year is that it vastly improves their chances at a deep playoff run. There is no reliable option to replace Sabathia's slot in the rotation this season (I'm citing Carmona's one full season and Miller's inability to stay healthy). Given the paltry returns for Minnesota in the Santana trade, the Indians stand little chance of getting a potential ace, like Phil Hughes, in return. The loaded trade offers Boston and New York were advertising earlier are long gone. Despite his "no-trade" stance on Sabathia, Shapiro should at least be listening to offers now. Just don't expect an offer to come along that will help the team win in 2008.

The Tribe made a generous contract offer; one of the largest in team history, yet it was not enough to even keep negotiations alive. Has anyone heard of a counter-offer from Sabathia's agents? There's no loyalty to be had at this point, it's all about the money. I'd also like to go on the record as saying Sabathia does not care about winning. He can't possibly care about winning a championship; where is he going to sign that will give him a better chance than the elite team Cleveland is fielding right now? New York? Boston? LA? They have the money, but Cleveland has shown it can meet or exceed the talent of any team in baseball.

So why don't you stop hiding behind your agents, man up, and tell us what you really want C.C.?

Grover and Elarton Return...Sort Of

Former Tribe manager Mike Hargrove and second baseman Joe Gordon were elected to the Cleveland Indians Hall of Fame on Friday. The former Indians will be presented with their own plaques in Heritage Park at Jacobs Field on August 16 when the Halos are in town. The Hall of Fame's inaugural class was in 1951 and now has 33 members.

Hargrove is among the most distinguished Cleveland managers, helping to guide the team out of the perennial basement and back into contention during the 1990s. Hargrove compiled two AL Pennants and five straight Central Division titles between 1991 and 1999. He also saw several all-time greats emerge during his tenure in Cleveland, including Albert Belle, Sandy Alomar Jr., Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Kenny Lofton, and Omar Vizquel.

In addition to being one of the winningest and longest tenured managers in team history, Hargrove also played first base for Cleveland from 1979 to 1985.

Notable Cleveland Managers:

Tris Speaker - 8 years (1919-1926), 617-520 record (.543)
Lou Boudreau - 9 years (1942-1950), 728-649 record (.529)
Al Lopez - 6 years (1951-1956), 570-354 record (.617)
Mike Hargrove - 9 years (1991-1999), 721-591 record (.550)

Joe "Flash" Gordon spent the final four years of his career with Cleveland and was a member of the 1948 World Championship team. Gordon was an outstanding second basemen and had two of his best offensive seasons in 1947 (29 HR, .346 OBP, .496 SLG) and 1948 (32 HR, .371 OBP, .507 SLG). He led the team in HR and RBI while batting cleanup in 1948.

Despite a career 120 OPS+, Gordon was better known for his slick defense. Gordon paired with shortstop Lou Boudreau to form one of the best infield defense combos in baseball. For fans who may not be familiar with Gordon and Boudreau, Bob DiBiasio elaborates:

It was held in the highest regard in the history of the franchise. Then Omar [Vizquel] and Robbie [Alomar] brought it back to life [in the '90s] with the debate over which was the better shortstop-second base combo. It took 50 years to bring the conversation full circle in who could match Boudreau and Gordon.

Gordon is being honored posthumously, as he passed away in 1978.

Shapiro Goes Bargain Hunting

Cleveland signed Brendan Donnelly to a minor league contract last week. He is currently recovering from an August Tommy John surgery on his elbow and is not expected to pitch for the first several months of the season.

Donnelly played for Anaheim from 2002 to 2006. He was a member of the Angels' juggernaut bullpen that featured Scot Shields, Francisco Rodriguez, and Troy Percival. Donnelly has only been in the majors for six years, but debuted late at age 30.

Donnelly is a setup man by trade and has a career ERA+ of 154 over 315.7 IP. Donnelly's best years came from '02-'06 when he posted an ERA+ of 203, 278, and 150, respectively. Despite a drop off in performance over the last three years, Donnelly has remained an above average reliever. He started the 2007 season with Boston before suffering a right forearm strain that kept him benched for the rest of the season.

I'm surprised the Tribe was able to acquire Donnelly so easily, as the only question mark is how well he recovers from surgery. Donnelly was effective for Boston with 20.7 IP, 3.0 K/BB ratio, 156 ERA+, and 1.16 WHIP. For comparison, Aaron Fultz had a 158 ERA+ in 37 IP last year. Even if it's all potential at this point, Donnelly appears to have enough left in the tank to add legitimate depth and experience to the Tribe bullpen late in the season. It's a long-shot, but depending on how strong Donnelly looks in Buffalo, he could be available to give Lewis and Perez some much needed rest late in the season.

Elarton Invited to Camp

Former Cleveland pitcher Scott Elarton was given an invitation to Spring Training last week. While Cleveland did sign Elarton to a minor league deal so he could attend camp, they are not interested in keeping him on the roster. The Tribe is doing Elarton a favor by giving him a place to work out for other major league scouts and show off his surgically repaired shoulder.

To be honest, I'm not sure how common a move like this is. I can't think of another example of a team inviting a player to camp with zero intention of signing him, but I bet it's happened at least a few times before. Either way, it's a classy thing for Cleveland to do, especially for a guy trying to get healthy and make a comeback. I always liked Elarton when he was with Cleveland. He never had the best stuff, but something about his work ethic and funky, stutter-arm delivery was appealing to me. So good luck in your comeback, Scott.

Finally...

MLB.com Productions posted a series of short videos called Béisbol Dominicano earlier this month. Episode Five is about the Tribe's Dominican baseball academy and is worth a look. I forgot just how young some of the prospects at the academy are, but the fact that the club makes sure they get a high school education (regardless of how their baseball careers pan out) is pretty awesome. It's the second link in the middle row on this page.

Cavs Injury Update and Z's Season

The Cavaliers have been flying high lately, going 11-3 in December and defeating Boston for the second time this season to kick off February. As luck would have it though, the Cavs had to go into Atlanta with four major players out with injuries. Varejao has now missed six games with an ankle injury, while Pavolvic is scheduled to sit for another month with a sprained left foot suffered January 21 against Washington. Gibson decided to join the fun by straining a hammy versus Houston, with Gooden straining his groin for good measure.

And…Larry Hughes stubbed his toe and missed the last five minutes tonight. No, seriously.

The situation has gotten so bad, Brian Windhorst jokingly listed the M.A.S.H. 4077^th in the box score against Atlanta tonight. Gooden is listed as day-to-day, while the Plain Dealer thinks Gibson will miss the three games leading up to the All-Star break.

With LeBron already carrying the team, Ilgauskas and Hughes will have to be at their best for the Cavs to finish strong going into the break. Coach Brown obviously can’t count on Ira Newble to have 18 points and 8 boards each night, although Newble’s effort was a big reason they beat Atlanta. Despite the current situation, I’m not overly concerned with the long term state of the team; they’ve already weathered a lot of injuries, but managed to tread water and have looked strong when healthy. The most recent example is Cleveland going 5-2 without Varejao and Pavolovic. Things might get a little ugly again for a few games, but after seeing them play so well when they were healthy, I know the team will bounce back again. Also, did I mention that 11-3 December?

On one hand the timing of Gibson and Gooden’s injuries is horrible, with the next three games against Denver, Orlando, and San Antonio. On the other hand, the All-Star break will buy everyone not named LeBron time to get healthy. I know it won’t happen, but I wish LeBron would take it easy during the All-Star festivities. From what I’ve heard, he’s still not 100% after his ankle injury and a degree of restraint during the exhibition match would be wise.

On Big Z

Over the course of the season, I’ve heard several conflicting opinions on Ilgauskas’ impact on the Cavs this season. Apparently, Z was a candidate for the Eastern All-Star team’s reserves, but did not make the cut. I thought it would be relevant to see how Z’s season has been thus far and see how he stacks up with the East’s All-Star centers. Below are Z’s stats from the last four seasons, including this season:

Year	GS	Min	PPG	FG%	FT%	Ast	Reb	Blk
04-05	78	33.5	16.9	.468	.799	1.3	8.6	2.1
05-06	78	29.3	15.6	.506	.834	1.2	7.5	1.7
06-07	78	27.4	11.9	.485	.807	1.6	7.7	1.3
07-08	48	30.9	13.9	.477	.821	1.6	9.6	1.6

I was expecting Z’s numbers to be a little better this season, but they are still solid compared to recent years. Ilgauskas has handled a slightly larger workload with fellow big-man Varejao missing so much time. Ilgauskas’ average points per game are down slightly, but are still two PPG better than the Cavs’ 50-game campaign last season. Two numbers that stand out to me are his shots made and rebounding, both of which may explain Z’s decrease in points production. Ilgauskas has sacrificed some of his scoring to gather up rebounds. Z is averaging 9.6 boards per game; more than in any of his past three seasons.

Another cause for Z’s drop in PPG may be the way Coach Brown is utilizing him. One of Ilgauskas’ best weapons is his mid-range shot. The threat of Ilgauskas’ shot can open up more opportunities for James inside, but will result in more lower-percentage shots for Z. My theory is that Z is getting more shot opportunities (or at least feints to draw the defense), giving up scoring chances in the paint to Gooden and James. NBA.com added a shot tracker tool to their website recently (a nod to Mistake by the Lake for bringing this to my attention), so let’s see if my theory holds up. Below are Z’s shots taken for the 07-08, 06-07, and 05-06 seasons:

07-08

06-07

05-06

According to the charts, Ilgauskas had 5.72 shot opportunities per game in the paint for this season, 5.64 in 06-07, and 7.2 in 05-06. It looks like my theory about Z getting more of his scoring opportunities away from the hoop was at least part right. His FG% declines right along with his shot opportunities closest to the hoop (predictable, but it was unclear where his shots had been coming from).

Granted, at least some of Z’s numbers are likely down because of age, but I just don’t see enough of a drop across the board to warrant much criticism. Z’s role on the court has just shifted slightly, changing the sources of his offensive production.

Ilgauskas played a key role in the Cavaliers resurgence in December averaging 10.2 boards and 16.6 PPG on 53.3% shooting. He also had great efforts against tough opponents like Washington, Phoenix, the Lakers, and Boston in his last 10 games (see below).

Opponent	Result	FG%	PPG	Reb
@Mia	W	.455	13	11
Was	W	1.000	24	6
Pho	L	.600	21	10
@Lal	W	.400	16	11
@Por	W	.333	7	13
@Sea	L	.231	17	9
Lac	W	.447	22	13
Bos	W	.818	21	10
@Hou	L	.438	8	8
@Atl	W	.615	17	11
Average		.533	16.6	10.2

While LeBron was busy being his usual spectacular self, Ilgauskas' contributions were overlooked during the team's winning streak (as usual). Big Z has been on fire heading into the All-Star break and will continue to be tested as the injury depleted Cavs face a tough three-game series against Western Conference teams to close it out. It’s crucial that Ilgauskas step up until the Cavs can get healthy again and continue to make LeBron’s job easier.

Finally, how does Ilgauskas stack up to the East’s All-Star centers?

Player	GS	Min	PPG	FG%	FT%	Ast	Reb	Blk
C. Bosh	42	36.1	22.7	.488	.850	2.2	9.1	1.1
D. Howard	51	38.9	21.8	.557	.599	1.4	14.6	2.5
Z. Ilgauskas	48	30.9	13.9	.477	.821	1.6	9.6	1.6

Well, not that great. I’m definitely not calling Ilgauskas’ lack of a bid a “snub,” far from it. Anyone who tries to argue Chris Bosh or Dwight Howard stole a roster spot from Ilgauskas is one serious Cleveland homer. Despite being compared to players 10 years younger who make up the core of their respective teams, Z makes a decent showing for himself. Like I said, the PPG aren’t a fair comparison because of the crucial roles Bosh and Howard play compared to Z, but Ilagauskas is competitive in FG%, assists, blocks, and rebounds. This is just a rough comparison in relation to the All-Star game, but I think a strong case can be made for Z still being one of the top centers in the East.