The Hole at DH

Cleveland has made great strides offensively in July, despite a 9-14 record. Over those 23 games the Tribe has posted an .816 OPS and averaged 5.47 runs per game, both season highs for a month. Veterans like Grady Sizemore (1.087 OPS, 7 HR) and Jhonny Peralta (.940 OPS, 22 RBI) are gaining momentum, Kelly Shoppach (1.065 OPS, 6 2B, 6 HR) continues to make a case to start next year, and Asdrubal Cabrera has caught fire after being promoted from Buffalo (.935 OPS in his last 7 games).

The offense finally seems to be coming together, but there has been a persistent hole in the lineup that has yet to be properly addressed.

Out of the 14 AL teams, Cleveland ranks near the bottom in production from the DH spot. A league average DH for 2008 would provide about 15 HR, .336 OBP, .425 SLG and a 101 OPS+. Cleveland’s combination of 10 players splitting time at DH have only managed a line of 8 HR (!), .297 OBP, .344 SLG, and a 71 OPS+ (well below the average major league hitter, let alone a designated hitter).

As of July 30, Sizemore, Francisco, Martinez, Peralta, Michael Aubrey, and Andy Gonzalez had appeared or started at DH in a combined 11 games with most of those appearances due to a player being injured or needing rest. For example, Grady Sizemore has received two starts at DH this month as a way of resting him without taking his bat out of the lineup. The number of at-bats represented by each of those six players is too small to consider statistically meaningful (I included Garko and Choo below only because there was such a big drop-off in PA’s after them, but they’re both very small samples too).

The large majority of starts at DH have gone to Hafner and Dellucci, with Garko and Choo contributing in a number of games as well. Here is how they’ve fared this season starting as DH:

Player	Games	PA	HR	OBP	SLG	OPS+
T. Hafner	43	187	4	.329	.387	80
D. Dellucci	28	113	4	.283	.423	86
R. Garko	9	35	1	.257	.333	57
S. Choo	7	26	0	.308	.364	79

Wow, that’s…pretty bad. Once Travis Hafner was finally shut down with a worn out shoulder after May 25 the team has clearly been struggling to fill his slot in the lineup. I’m not about to let Hafner off the hook here, but like I’ve said before, the situation surrounding how long he was playing with a bum shoulder are cloudy which makes it hard to point fingers about what drove down his performance this year. The bottom line is that even in a down year like 2007, Hafner’s 24 homers and 118 OPS+ would have trumped anything Cleveland has produced at DH without him healthy.

Obviously, compensating for the loss of Hafner and Martinez in the lineup is no easy task, but it’s almost like Manager Eric Wedge could care less who he uses for DH at this point. Since May 25 (55 games), Dellucci has made just five starts in left field with 12 more appearances as a pinch hitter. The rest of the time, Dellucci has been filling in as the team’s full-time DH. If the guy can’t hit and his defense isn’t good enough to even start him in the outfield anymore, why is he still taking up space on the roster?

We get it Wedge, you like to start Dellucci against right handed pitching. Normally this would be a defensible move since the left-handed Dellucci has a career .808 OPS against righties. This doesn’t negate the fact that Dellucci has been terrible for three months now. Dellucci’s season stats have been buoyed by his .871 April OPS, but he has posted OPS’ of .559, .671, and .612 for the past three months and has shown no sign of improvement (.469 OPS the past two weeks). You’d think Wedge would have ditched Dellucci as DH by now and given more at-bats to, well…anybody else.

I realize Dellucci is part of the team’s corps of “veteran players,” but so were Sabathia and Blake, so I don’t see how that exempts someone from a transaction. I think this team is past the point where they need to sign guys for their veteran presence (like Millwood and Nixon). The core guys should have matured enough to handle those duties by now. I’m also aware that Dellucci was injured for much of 2007, but I don’t see how that’s an excuse for his performance considering he’s been healthy for all of this season.

I know the team is out of contention, but if there is a better bat sitting on the bench each night, why not get it in the lineup? The least the team can do is continue to play hard and give the fans something to cheer about; that means putting the best available players in the lineup as much as possible. It’s OK to admit Dellucci is having a bad season by benching him Wedge; really, I won’t hold it against you.

Fortunately, some semblance of sanity has crept into the lineup with Sizemore (3), Francisco (3), Garko (1), and Choo (1) all receiving starts at DH in the past 16 games (July 11-31). That still leaves the other eight games to Dellucci, which is still too many in my opinion. I would like to see a semi-platoon featuring the day’s spare outfielder and Garko continue until Victor comes off the DL in a few weeks (I’ll break down that situation in detail in a later post).

Garko, Francisco, Choo, and Gutierrez figure to be in the team’s future plans and need more Major League experience to improve. If the team hasn’t seen enough of Dellucci in the past two seasons by now, I honestly don’t know what they’re looking for (he may have a year left on his contract, but I would rather see the team eat his salary than have to work around him in the lineup anymore). Plus, if Francisco or Choo is starting at DH it makes more sense to play Gutierrez for his superior defense over Dellucci.

Cleveland has one guarantee and three relative unknowns in the outfield right now and all three of them have a realistic shot at making a positive contribution next season (Francisco is my strongest pick to start next year). Garko and Gutierrez are essentially fighting for their jobs right now. It would benefit the team if they could continue to work with these two players while evaluating them for 2009. This approach is somewhat contradictive to what I said earlier (put the best product on the field), but getting a good grasp of each players’ value heading into the off-season is an extremely valuable commodity in itself.

Allowing struggling players like Garko and Gutz to find a way out of their slumps may also increase their value on the trade market if they catch fire late in the season (just look at what a couple of hot months did for Casey Blake’s value). Cleveland has nothing to lose at present by allowing these four guys to accumulate at-bats and will have an easier time improving the team for the future. Again, I do not expect Dellucci to be a part of this team by the time 2009 rolls around.

This is extended Spring Training, right? I say let the young guys play because that DH spot has no where to go but up.

Shoppach Joins Rare Company

Catcher Kelly Shoppach had a career night against Detroit on Wednesday, going 5-6 with a BB, 3 2B, 2 HR, 4 R, and 3 RBI over 13 innings. Shoppach’s five extra-base hits tied the major league record for most in a game, a feat accomplished just nine times since 1885. The last American League player to do it was Tribe alum Lou Boudreau in 1946.

Carmona Back in Control

The difference between Carmona’s first two starts back from the DL looked like night and day. After getting shelled for 9 ER over 2.1 innings versus Minnesota last week, Carmona had a quality outing against Detroit Thursday. Fausto went 6.1 innings with 3 K, 1 BB, 5 H and 2 ER.

Carmona looked very comfortable on the mound, stayed down in the zone for the most part, and had good movement on his pitches. The most encouraging part of Carmona’s outing was his 11 to 5 ground ball to fly ball outs ratio. Fausto even ran over to first at full speed to assist on a groundball out, showing no discomfort in his hip.

Opening Day: the Sequel and Fun with Rosters

It's Opening Day! Again.

It seems Major League Baseball decided to expand the (much deserved) hype of Opening Day for as long as possible. Technically, the season started last Tuesday when the Tokyo Red Sox faced off against the Oakland A's for two games. Was anyone else frightened by the sight of 50,000 Japanese Sox fans crammed into the Tokyo Dome? I guess if you put down $100 mil for a pitcher, it doesn't seem so bad knowing you just gained an entire country as a fan base. Either way, more Red Sox fans is not what this world needs. I'm curious how Boston's obvious lack of enthusiasm to represent MLB abroad by playing in Japan went over with the fans there. Yeah, real classy to publicly hold out for more monetary compensation Boston, it's not like you couldn't handle that in private. But I digress....

Opening Day Part II is on Sunday, but only features one game. I know it's a historic event, with the Nats kicking off the season in their brand-new, uber-cool stadium, but the schedule makers couldn't find room for the rest of the teams to play? I wish the regular season would start all at once or at least split the games over a couple days, preferably on the weekend. Many fans treat Opening Day with such reverence that it might as well be a national holiday. Just think of all the marketing and media coverage that goes into the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament; now imagine that same frenzy over two full days of baseball games. I doubt anything like that is going to happen, but there's plenty of money to be made if MLB were to play its cards right.

The Tribe starts their defense of the Central Division crown on Monday against Chicago. Unfortunately, we didn't make the national broadcast that day, but that doesn't mean Tribe fans can't enjoy the first of 50 games ESPN has set for the Yankees this season! That Steinbrenner kid is such a character, I can't wait to hear what he'll say next. I bet A-Rod hits for the cycle twice in that game. Hello? Where'd everybody go?

Marte In

Andy Marte became one of the final players to make the Tribe's 25-man roster earlier this week. He will join Jamey Carroll, David Dellucci, and Kelly Shoppach on the bench. According to Manager Eric Wedge:

We'll see Andy mixed in at third base when we give Casey a day off. I think we'd be comfortable putting him [at first] if we needed him over there.

Backup third baseman is obviously the best fit for Marte this season, but how much playing time can he expect behind Blake? Last season, Blake had 145 appearances at 3b, 12 at 1b, 7 in RF, and 1 as DH. It's doubtful Blake will see any significant time in the outfield with Gutz, Dellucci, and Michaels already on the roster and Francisco and Choo waiting in the wings. Assuming Blake remains relatively healthy, that would mean Marte would get just 17 appearances at third; not a realistic number. If Marte were to start once a week at third (similar to the rotation of Martinez and Shoppach at catcher), that would translate to roughly 30 starts, or 120 at-bats.

I agree that the starting third base job is Blake's to lose and he has done nothing to merit a demotion. This puts Wedge in a tricky situation when dealing with Marte though. The Indians really need to find creative ways to get Marte up to the plate on a regular basis. Marte has had several cups of coffee at the major league level, but never a large sample of at-bats in a single season. Below are Marte's previous appearances in the majors:

Year	Age	Team	PA	H	HR	SB	BB	SO	OBP	SLG
2005	21	ATL	66	8	0	0	7	13	.227	.211
2006	22	CLE	178	37	5	0	13	38	.287	.421
2007	23	CLE	60	11	1	0	2	9	.233	.316

There are two things that stand out in Marte's old stat lines. The first is how few plate appearances he's had. Marte was supposed to start 2007 on the roster, but an injury and the steady play of Blake left him stranded in Buffalo. Considering Blake had 662 PA in 156 games last season, Marte has not been given a legitimate chance to prove himself yet. The second item of interest is Marte's age. He may have been an elite prospect in Atlanta, but how many 22 year olds are capable of making an immediately successful transition from the minors? Not many. Marte also has a reputation as a slow starter. It seems every time he starts to settle in somewhere, he gets moved, resetting his progress.

There is some uncertainty with Marte, like his inconsistent defense and what he'll really do at the plate if given the chance. Marte helped his cause by posting a .333 OBP, .519 SLG, and 5 HR in 54 AB in spring training. Unfortunately, he also committed 6 errors at third. If Cleveland sees any substantial value in Marte for the future they will have to perform their final evaluation on the fly this season. With no minor league options left, Marte may be off the team by 2009 if the Tribe doesn't like what it sees in 2008.

Francisco and Barfield Out

Josh Barfield and Ben Francisco will be starting the season in AAA. I agree with the Barfield move, but Francisco really should be in Cleveland this year. If there was a better platoon alternative than Dellucci in left field I could understand, but sending Ben back to Buffalo is a waste of everyone's time. Francisco had 12 HR, 22 SB, a .382 OBP, and a .496 SLG and won the International League MVP in Buffalo last season. There's nothing left for him to prove in the minors, especially at 25 years old. Lets take a quick look at stats for Michaels, Dellucci, and Francisco for 2007:

Player	PA	H	HR	BB	SB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS+
J. Michaels	295	72	7	20	3	50	.324	.397	87
D. Dellucci	199	41	4	17	2	40	.296	.382	76
B. Francisco	66	17	3	3	0	19	.303	.500	105

Not to jump to conclusions due to the small sample size, but Francisco clearly outplayed Dellucci during his stint in Cleveland. Francisco's .814 career OPS against righties also fits in nicely with Michaels' career OPS of .842 against lefties. Dellucci may not even be 100% healthy this season (he had surgery last year to repair a torn hamstring). His salary would be easy to dump and after putting up with the Trot Nixon experiment last year, I'm not sure Dellucci has really earned a spot on the roster. If his veteran status and $3.75 million contract are the main reasons for him making the roster, that hardly seems fair. Not giving Dellucci a chance to defend his job after an injury-filled season is no way to treat a player either, so maybe I'm being a bit harsh. Regardless of salary, I can't see Dellucci getting much leeway this season with two viable alternatives in Francisco and (later on) Choo. I predict a mid-season call up for one of the two young outfielders.

There's really not much to say about Barfield. I had a hunch he would at least start the season in Buffalo, which is good because his offense has been terrible since arriving in Cleveland. Josh had a .270 OBP and .324 SLG in 444 PA for 2007 (no, that OBP isn't a typo). The good news is, Barfield still has an above average glove and has just two full years of major league experience. If he can find his swing again in AAA, Josh will certainly be in the running for the 2009 starting infield. The bad news is, it will take a mammoth effort in AAA from Barfield and an abysmal start from Asdrubal to dislodge him from second base. I'm rooting for him, but don't expect to see much of Barfield this season.

Finally...

I haven't had much time to investigate Fultz's replacement, Craig Breslow, but that's what the internet is for. Jay over at LGT has a nice breakdown of Fultz's departure, while the community chimes in on Breslow. Good stuff.

Fun with Rosters

David Dellucci injured his knee running to first on a groundball in the bottom of the fourth inning against the Phillies Tuesday. A little more than halfway to the bag, Dellucci’s knee gave out, forcing him to slide head-first to reach base. While Dellucci’s hustle on the play was commendable, the damage was done; he had to be helped off the field by two trainers.

As bad as Dellucci has been this season, you never want to see a player get hurt and I hope the injury is not as serious as it looked. However, the injury did appear to be quite serious, which likely means a trip to the DL for Dellucci and a call up from Buffalo to take his place. Wedge has options at several positions, but it will be interesting to see how he adapts to losing an outfield platoon member with 173 at-bats this season. Here are the positions affected by Dellucci’s injury, with the available players:

LF: Michaels / Blake
RF: Nixon / Blake / Gutierrez
3B: Blake / Rouse

Michaels is a near lock to collect the majority of starts formerly assigned to Dellucci, given his success this season. Blake has never started in LF, but plays a solid outfield and can handle the occasional appearance in left.

Nixon and Gutierrez will likely continue to platoon, but I would still like to see Gutz get the majority of starts as the team heads into the All-Star break. I’m a big Nixon fan and while I was frustrated with his epic slump at the plate, I figured he would have at least stabilized by now. Instead, his OPS has continued to sink, due in part to an ugly .332 SLG. Trot has a career .470 SLG and slugged .394 in 2006 and .446 in 2007. The last time he hit more than 10 homeruns in a season was 2005 (13).

As far as I know, Nixon is healthy in 2007, so his stats are in all likelihood the best we will see out of him. What’s worse, Nixon’s range in right field has deteriorated to the point of being a liability on defense. As I’ve said before, Nixon is arguably canceling out the benefit of his batting against rightys with his all-around poor play. The lineup would also get a major speed boost with Nixon and Dellucci benched. I don’t know how much longer Wedge can justify starting Nixon with Gutierrez and Blake available.

Gutz has only seen 20 major league at-bats in 2007, so a sub-par offensive line is difficult to project (he was hitting .341 with an .872 OPS in AAA, so his bat is more likely to come around than Nixon’s), but he has shown great range in the outfield. Under the current platoon regimen, the Tribe’s best defensive outfield of Michaels, Sizemore, and Gutierrez only appears against left-handed pitching. Dellucci’s injury may allow the superior corner defenders to solidify a regular presence in the lineup.

In the event Gutz is not ready for a full time gig, Blake would have to take the majority of starts in right, with Andy Marte getting called up from Buffalo to start at 3b (Rouse is strictly a utility fielder). This is the least likely scenario in my opinion, given the team’s handling of Marte this season. Marte has turned up his offense in June (.302 AVG, .970 OPS), but is in Buffalo because of his offensive struggles in Cleveland. He will need to show a consistent improvement at the plate and Gutz will need to struggle for Marte to get the call.

More Roster Madness

I was simultaneously shocked and thrilled to see Josh Barfield bat second in the lineup against the Phillies on Monday and Tuesday. Barfield has been knocking on the door for a promotion, batting .355/.354/.387 in June so far. His power may not have caught up yet, but it's nice to see him hitting consistently right now.

Batting Sizemore and Barfield at the top of the lineup is wicked smart and a huge departure from Wedgie's usual lineup (Dellucci in the two-hole!?!). Once J-Barf's bat locks in for good (I'm extremely confident it will), can you imagine the chaos that much speed would do at the top of the lineup? Pitchers are going to have a hard time focusing on Victor or Pronk at the plate with that much speed on the basepaths. (ed. note: Casey Blake resumed batting second today, so it looks like Barfield was just getting a cup of coffee while Blake and Hafner rested those two days. I know I got a little carried away about Barfield batting second, but Blake is definitely the better choice, at least this season.)

Finally, Kelly Shoppach is now batting .391/.458/.656 in 64 ABs this season. His batting line is even more impressive, given his irregular appearances.

Did anyone else wonder if Shoppach catching Lee on Monday was for more than just lineup purposes? Lee and Victor were definitely unhappy with each other during Lee's last outing and he looked much more comfortable on the mound in his most recent start. Probably nothing, but something to keep an eye on.

Fish Fry

I know a win's a win, but this was an ugly game from start to finish. Cliff Lee got the mediocrity rolling by allowing the first four batters he faced to reach base safely. The Marlins took advantage of Lee's lack of control, plating three. In a cruel twist of fate (for Florida), Lee got his act together after that, keeping the Fish scoreless, striking out six and walking only two over his last 4 IP.

It was looking like yet another long night for the Tribe, with B.H. Kim striking out 8 over 5.1 innings and basically making one of the league's best lineups look foolish. The Marlins should have left the 6th inning with at least a 3-1 advantage, but managed to rack up 3 errors (there were a few in this game that didn't get scored, but they were definitely errors). Peralta mixed in a double among the chaos, while two more errors and a sharp Garko groundout tied it up.

Now, I almost feel sorry for what happened to the
Marlins next, but I'm in a rather spiteful mood tonight (blame the Cavs), so I think I'll just enjoy the moment. Tankersly had come in to relieve Kim and lost control of a 2-0 pitch, which plunked Grady on the back. Everyone watching knew it was just a wild pitch, but the young, hot-shot ump (who had issued a warning earlier in the game) decided to make a name for himself and tossed the pitcher and the manager and Aaron bleepin' Boone (yeah, he was definitely bleeping, but he was the only one who deserved to be tossed).

The very next at-bat, the replacement pitcher gives up a 3-run bomb to Dellucci to blow the game open and seal the win for the Tribe. Hey, I'll take it.

I was hoping the Tribe could get their bats going on their own tonight, but I will give them credit for taking full advantage of terrible defense from the Fish. In their last 10 (before tonight), Cleveland had gone 3-7, averaging only 3.7 runs per game. The team needs to carry over their aggression from tonight and string together a few good offensive performances to snap out of this "funk," as Wedgie likes to call it.

The Player of the Game tonight, was Victor Martinez, going 2-4 with an RBI and taking more abuse than a catcher should in one game. Poor Vic got trucked by the Marlins' catcher after blocking the plate, collecting a great relay throw from Rouse, and holding on to end the inning and the Marlins' last legit threat to take the lead back. You know when the head trainer spends an entire inning monitoring the catcher in the dugout, he got hit pretty hard.

On Cliff and Vic

In the midst of a near Cliff Lee meltdown, there was some serious animosity visible between Victor and Cliffy. After the second Marlins run scored, Carl Willis (the pitching coach) met with the battery on the mound. Victor wanted nothing to do with it, ignoring the meeting and staring off into the distance with a supremely pissed expression on his face. It was pretty apparent that the communication between the battery mates was poor that night, with Vic getting crossed up multiple times and Lee failing to hit his targets consistently.

While no where near as bad, I immediately thought of Zambrano and Barrett smacking each other around in the Cubs dugout last week. Victor is usually a model catcher in the way he communicates with and encourages his pitching staff; I'm guessing the tension of the team's losing streak was showing through a bit tonight. A good working relationship between a pitcher and catcher are crucial to the team's success, but neither seems to be of the personality that would lead to any grudges. Besides, I doubt Lee would be able to pitch again this season if Vic stuffed him in a water cooler.

On the Platoon

I know I'm not alone in my disappointment with the corner outfielders this year. Nixon started off the year on fire, but has since settled into a bad stretch. Dellucci has been next to useless in key at-bats and his defense has been nothing to write home about. I find myself cringing whenever these two guys come up to bat now, it's really been that ugly at times (as I type this, Dellucci hits a 3 run homer....awesome, but he still isn't off the hook). I really can't complain about Michaels, but he seems to get a lot fewer at bats compared to Dellucci. The table below shows the splits for all three platoon outfielders for the 2007 season, up to June 13.

Pitcher	Bats	Player	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BA w/ RISP
Lefty	Left	Dellucci	23	0.174	0.208	0.261	0.469	0.163
Righty			140	0.250	0.308	0.407	0.715
Lefty	Left	Nixon	45	0.222	0.275	0.289	0.563	0.226
Righty			131	0.260	0.355	0.366	0.722
Lefty	Right	Michaels	59	0.288	0.377	0.492	0.868	0.346
Righty			52	0.250	0.264	0.385	0.649

As a platoon, each player's at-bats obviously correlate with the type of pitcher they've historically had the most success against. Dellucci and Nixon have seen about the same number of at-bats and neither has been much better than the other offensively. The only standout stat is Nixon's .226 BA with runners in scoring position compared to Dellucci's miserable .163.

Meanwhile, Michaels is sitting with a .868 OPS and a .346 BA with RISP. J-Mike also sports better range in left field, making several game altering catches this season.

It's unfortunate that both left-handed platoon bats have failed to make a significant impact so far, since there is no easy alternative for Wedge other than to give them playing time. First, Wedge is notoriously stubborn and will likely stick with the pure platoon all season, even though the two lefties lack of production arguably cancels out any benefits of matching up a righty bat in the lineup against a lefty pitcher. Second, benching Dellucci/Nixon for an extended period of time would likely create some dissent in the clubhouse. Taking scheduled at-bats from the team's veteran leadership is not the message Wedge wants to send to the rest of the team.

To add another layer to the issue, Casey Blake has been playing some of the best baseball of his career with solid defense in right and third (a 22 game hit streak doesn't hurt either). At the beginning of the year Michaels had to split time with three other players, but now that Blake has moved to third base full time and Dellucci and Nixon are struggling, you would think Michaels would see more time right? Nope, still a benchwarmer more often than not.

Given how upset Michaels gets with himself for so much as striking out, his confidence is probably suffering as he watches Dellucci misread flyballs in left and flail away at the plate. Dellucci has done nothing to deserve 32% more at-bats than Michaels this season. Dellucci (.208 OBP) batting second in the lineup instead of J-Mike (.377 OBP) only exacerbates the issue. The biggest strength of a platoon is its flexibility, whether that means matching up against a pitcher or playing the hot hand to maximize production.