Raising the White Flag

It's pretty obvious. If you're looking for an announcement that we're going to start trading guys, you won't get that until we make our first trade. But I think it's fairly obvious at this point.

-Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro, 7/2/08

The white flag was officially raised by Cleveland this week with 77 games remaining in the season. The decline of this year’s squad has been one long, painful slump after another. If it wasn’t the offense, it was the bullpen. If it wasn’t the bullpen (though it usually was), it was the starting pitching. As the injuries stacked up, it became more and more apparent that this team would not have the talent needed to contend.

There was certainly some risks and elevated expectations going into the 2008 season. Even if the team was completely healthy, they would have had a tough time improving on their ALCS appearance last year. Half the analysts from Bristol to Minneapolis were picking the Indians to make the playoffs again, maybe even go all the way. How much that pressure weighed on the players and the coaching staff, nobody knows except the people in the dugout. After all the seasoning this team has gone through since 2005, I doubt few players gave the pressure of making the playoffs again a second thought. Besides, hanging a season with this many speed bumps on mental hiccups just doesn’t make any sense.

The risk I was referring to is going into a season with out making any major upgrades or additions to the team. This is about the biggest hindsight criticism one can make, but it’s true; there was a degree of risk involved. Shapiro placed a lot of faith in young players like Garko, Gutierrez, and Cabrera to take the next step and they stumbled. Veterans who were charged with carrying left field, third base, and the closer role failed miserably. Even the vaunted core of Sizemore, Martinez, Peralta, and Hafner couldn’t save the season, as the catcher and DH succumbed to injuries for a crucial stretch of the season. The starting pitching was the one bright spot this season, until two of the most consistent starters found themselves on the DL as well.

Despite the hindsight argument that Shapiro failed to bolster the offense as teams like Boston and Detroit got stronger, we’ll never know the true potential of this group of players because two of the three main offensive cogs were never healthy to begin with. There is no way anyone could have predicted such a handicap, thus there was no way to prepare for it in the offseason (how much he knew about Hafner’s shoulder is arguable, but that would be pure speculation here). An offense does not fluctuate like a bullpen; these players had a history of success offensively and Shapiro made a perfectly defensible decision to stick with them.

Obviously this season was disappointing, but when you get down to it anything short of a Word Series win would have been a disappointment in the end. 2007 was one of the greatest seasons I’ve ever experienced as an Indians fan, yet it was all a mere stepping stone toward a long awaited goal. It’s not uncommon for a strong contender to take a step back the season after. Whether players leave, get injured, regress, age, or have the wear of a playoff run catch up to them, it’s extremely difficult to sustain.

Granted, some teams are the exception to this rule (Oakland, New York, Boston, Atlanta are the most recent….the list gets much shorter after that).

I believe Cleveland may have fallen victim to its own success in a way. Were Shapiro and Wedge overconfident because of the team’s past accomplishments?

Maybe.

Did pitchers like Carmona, Westbrook, and Betancourt over-work their arms by throwing so many strenuous innings?

Possibly.

Fluctuations like these are part of the game; you just have to hope your team can stay ahead of the curve.

In a way, it’s beneficial that Cleveland tanked this year. The team’s struggles were a quick (albeit painful) way of weeding out holes in the lineup and who should be shipped out. With any luck and a little less stubbornness from Wedge, the team will finally have a no-risk opportunity to evaluate Andy Marte in the Majors. Cleveland can also convert the value Sabathia may have offered in the playoffs into a young, cornerstone player for 2009 or 2010.

Falling out of contention may be a blessing in disguise if the return for Sabathia fills in one of those offensive holes that have plagued the team lately. There’s no way this team would trade Sabathia if it were still gunning for a playoff spot.

Below is my list of things I’d like to see happen now that Cleveland has raised the white flag and started taking entries for the C.C. Sweepstakes. I’ll go into more detail on a few of these later this week:

1.) Trade Sabathia

The trade winds blowing through Cleveland are practically a hurricane now. The two most convincing reports I’ve heard so far come out of Milwaukee and Los Angeles. Milwaukee appears to be the front runner out of the many teams supposedly scouting Sabathia this month. It sounds like the Tribe may get a stud prospect or two after all. I’m going to wait and see how the rumors play out, but look for a possible announcement from the team next week.

2.) Play Andy Marte for the rest of the season

I don’t care if it’s at DH or third base, Wedge needs to play Marte NOW. If Shapiro has to twist Wedge’s arm to make this happen, that’s just fine with me. Marte has no minor league options left and has accumulated a grand total of 164, 57, and 55 at-bats with Cleveland over the 2006-2008 seasons.

This is not a fair means of evaluation for any player, let alone a 24 year old that was considered one of the best prospects in the game not too long ago. Blake is not the future, but there’s a strong possibility Marte is. If the poor kid doesn’t get called off the bench soon, he may just go all Shawn Chacon on Wedgie.

3.) Get rid of Borowski

Borowski was designated for assignment today, since the team doesn’t have to pretend it needs him closing out games anymore. I appreciate the solid 45 save season he gave us last year, but his time with Cleveland should have ended well before now.

4.) Dump Dellucci

Please?

5.) Trade Casey Blake

Again, I appreciate the past contributions, but we’re not talking about Todd Helton or Ken Griffey here, this is the type of player that you trade when you’re out of contention. Consider Casey’s $6.1 mil expiring contract, age, and the fact that we have Andy Marte rotting on the bench and that’s reason enough to trade him in my opinion.

There are plenty of contending teams that could use a super-utility man like Blake and his value has likely peaked for this season. Blake posted an OPS of .670 and .691 for April and May, respectively. Unless you think he can sustain a .954 OPS on a .420 BAbip beyond the month of June (he can’t) I say trade him while might be of value.

6.) Hold tryouts for the 2009 closer position

I’ve said before that I think Jensen Lewis and Masahide Kobayashi are the strongest contenders for closer next year. This may be a bit tricky though, as both pitchers are having trouble adapting to their recent increase in innings and will need to be handled carefully.

Lewis pitched 81 innings between AA, AAA, and the Majors in 2007. The last time he threw that many innings in a season was 2006 when he was still a starter at Kinston. Kobayashi averaged just 48 IP over the last three years in the shortened, 144 game Pro Yakyu season. Kobayashi has already logged 41 innings for Cleveland so far.

7.) Give Hafner and Martinez as much time as they need to heal

It's pretty much a lock that we won't see these two suit up again until they're 100% healthy. As I've said before, I think having Hafner sit out this season to fix his weakened shoulder and any holes in his swing will greatly benefit the team in the long run. Ditto for Martinez, whose choice to play through intense pain was admirable, but it's time to get that elbow permanently healthy.

Shapiro Named Exec of the Year

General Manager Mark Shapiro was named the 2007 Baseball Executive of the Year by the Sporting News. Shapiro was awarded the honor during the GM winter meetings in Orlando on Monday. Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd (another Cleveland protégé) trailed Shapiro in votes, 13 to 11. The award is Shapiro’s second in three years. What makes Shapiro’s win all the more impressive is the fact it was voted on by his peers. Forty seven baseball executives were eligible to vote this year.

How awesome is the Tribe’s front office and coaching staff? In addition to fielding one of the best major league clubs, Cleveland boasts an outstanding farm system and some of the best minds in MLB right now. The organization’s success and numerous job offers flying at Tribe employees are evidence enough. John Farrell, former Director of Player Development, was hired as Boston’s pitching coach last season. Joel Skinner was apparently in the running for Pittsburgh’s next managing gig, while Neal Huntington moved up from special assistant to Shapiro to Pittsburgh’s GM.

Assistant GM Chris Antonetti fielded not one, but two GM job offers from other teams this season, but turned down both so he could stay in Cleveland. Now, one of those offers was from Pittsburgh, but the other was from the St. Louis Pujols’. That’s a serious statement about the respect Cleveland commands. According to a persistent rumor, owner Paul Dolan was willing to guarantee Antonetti the GM job down the road, making him the heir to Shapiro. Shapiro would become the Club President, but the time table for all this is still unknown. Like I said, it was just a rumor. Either way, it looks like Cleveland’s Dynamic Duo isn’t going anywhere, which is great news.

Plus, we have Louis Issac, who might as well be the team’s mascot at this point. Analyze that, Billy Beane.

Maintaining an elite front office team like Shapiro and Antonetti is as significant as keeping the one-two punch of Vic and Pronk together, or extending Wedge’s contract. All three provide a stable foundation for the team to continue to build on, rather than having to take a big step back every time key personnel leave. Keeping the front office intact from the top-down ensures the outstanding pattern of player development and acquisition Jon Hart created will go unbroken for years to come. Hart, Shapiro, Antonetti: all have played key roles in the franchise’s success from the 90’s to the present, with Shapiro working as Hart’s Assistant GM.

Hopefully I can get a handle on the Tribe's Hot Stove ventures this week. I hear Jason Bay is available....

Super-Delayed Shapiro Conference Impressions

The press conference may be over a week old, but whenever Shapiro addresses the media it’s worth discussing. Here’s what I got out of his State of the Tribe conference:

Trot and Kenny are Gone

The language Shapiro used while discussing Trot Nixon and Kenny Lofton made it sound like neither player would be returning for 2008. Shapiro cited Nixon’s leadership role as his greatest contribution to the Tribe. Fans have been hearing about Nixon’s mentoring all season, not to mention the rally pies. Obviously Nixon struggled in the field this season, but I think his off-the-field contributions made a bigger impact than fans truly realize.

Listening to Shapiro and Wedge discuss Nixon’s role so prominently only reinforces my assumption. Referring to Nixon, Shapiro said "whether he's here or not, [he’s] going to make a lasting impact on this team." In other words, Shapiro knew (roughly) what he was getting as far as Nixon’s potential contributions and it sounds like he was satisfied with the team’s “investment.” Shapiro also compared Nixon’s influence to that of Kevin Millwood on a young pitching staff in 2005.

Now that the Tribe is battle-tested in the playoffs and more youngsters are scheduled to arrive from Buffalo, Nixon’s imminent release shouldn't come as a surprise. Lofton’s release may have been disheartening to many fans, though. I’m a big Lofton fan, but I think the decision to let him walk is the correct one. Lofton’s endurance and possible decline in performance are legitimate questions, even though Lofton had a successful campaign at age 40. The Tribe has too many young outfielders who either deserve a shot or are at least as good as a healthy Lofton would be. Lofton filed for free agency on Tuesday; he made $6 million last year.

Roster Stability

Cleveland is in a rare and enviable position this off-season. Every player on the roster is potentially under team control for 2008, excluding free agents Nixon, Lofton, and Chris Gomez.

Shapiro made a strong suggestion that Cleveland would pick up Joe Borowski’s $4 million option, but still left the door open for other options. Those other options are a near lock to come from within the organization, as the closer options through a trade or signing are bleak. If Borowski stays on for a role other than closer, Betancourt is the obvious choice to succeed him. Chances are Wedge would be pitching Raffy and Joe in the 8^th and 9^th no matter what the order, so why make any change at all? Despite each pitcher's ability, disrupting the comfort they have in their respective roles could backfire. Perez and Lewis have an outside shot at closer, but I honestly don’t see Borowski losing the closer job if brought back.

Aaron Fultz will likely be brought back as well, providing extra depth and a veteran alternative to any rookies in the bullpen for 2008.

Shapiro’s stated "free agen[cy] by nature is so inefficient,” dropping yet another hint that he will be ultra-conservative over the winter. My guess is the biggest splash Shapiro makes in free agency is picking up a Fultzian reliever to add another layer of security to the bullpen. The team has certainly learned its lesson in gambling with the bullpen; the more options available, the better.

Interestingly enough, Shapiro cited Lewis and Perez as “on the radar” in 2007. I think it’s safe to say few fans were expecting those guys to make such an impact, but apparently Shapiro had them listed as legit options. With all the pitching depth in the minors, look for a couple other guys to come out of nowhere in the bullpen again next season.

Position Battles

Spring Training 2008 will feature three major position battles; much more exciting than the Inglett-Luna-Rouse free-for-all featured in 2007. Secondbase is the most significant, in my opinion, as it could indirectly determine the future of Marte and Barfield with the Tribe. I see both guys making the roster, but their roles and subsequent evaluations are unclear.

Shapiro explicitly mentioned upstart Asdrubal Cabrera as having a “prominent role” on the team in ’08. He wouldn’t explain what that role was yet, laying the foundation for a whole winter’s worth of fan speculation and analysis....thanks, Mark! I’ll be going into greater detail on the Tribe’s infield in a later article.

Left field and the fifth rotation slot are also a logjam this off-season. Choo was explicitly mentioned during the conference, with Ben Francisco, Jason Michaels, and David Dellucci rounding out left. This is assuming Gutz starts in right full-time, of course. Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, and Adam Miller are the main competitors in the rotation. I purposely left off Lee because I’m convinced he’ll be traded soon (and he stinks).

Sabathia’s Contract

Shapiro’s comments on Sabathia were one of the few concrete answers given. He indicated the goal was to have Sabathia's contract situation settled by the start of spring training. Shapiro made it clear he doesn't like to set specific timetables (see the surprise, mid-season contract extensions this year as proof), leaving the option open for a longer negotiating window. I think it will be difficult for Shapiro to negotiate with Sabathia once the season starts, unless the two sides are close to a deal. Sabathia has stated in the past that he doesn’t like to negotiate during the season.

With a short shopping list and few contracts to wrangle, Sabathia will benefit from the full attention of the front office this winter. If Sabathia truly wants to stay with Cleveland, I think we’ll hear a deal announced before April. The ownership has shown a strong commitment to increasing payroll and extending core players (Hafner and Westbrook), so C.C. should be no exception. Shapiro will likely have the green light and funding from Dolan to be aggressive, but if Sabathia wants too many years or just doesn’t feel the desire to stay, the California native will likely head to the West Coast.

Alex Rodriguez may play a minor role in Sabathia’s plans for ’09. The Dodgers and Angels are both rumored to be front runners for Rodriguez’s services this year. Signing Rodriguez could potentially make a serious dent in either team’s free agent coffer, making an already expensive Sabathia less attractive in a stacked ’09 pitching market.

Deadlines

I know I promised an ALCS preview, but apparently my college professors don't appreciate the fine art of blogging. So this week it came down to blogging or meeting a deadline for my thesis project. Hmmm.... I'm always disappointed when I can't cover a Tribe event, but I'd rather not rush it and end up with something that stinks.

I did find a nifty story (in the Washington Post, no less) on some former Jon Hart protegés. I'm as big a fan of Cleveland's front office as I am of the players (yes, I'm a baseball nerd), so I think it's kinda cool that three of the four remaining playoff GMs, Dan O'Dowd (Colorado), Josh Byrnes (Arizona), and Mark Shapiro, all got their start under Hart in Cleveland. Each team tends to follow the home-grown, youth movement technique that many small-market teams thrive on. I'll take a closer look at this trend in the off-season.

Game 1 is on Friday, so LET'S GO, TRIBE!

The Tribe Reloads

Here's what I expected the Cleveland Front Office to do before the trade deadline: Ship out Lee for bullpen help and a AAA prospect, put Stanford or Sowers in the starting rotation, and continue with Gutz, Nixon, J-Mike, and Francisco in the outfield corners.

It's good to be wrong about these things sometimes.

Lofton Returns, Fans Notice

Now batting: Kenny Lofton






















The crowd of 37, 292 at Jacobs Field had begun to stir several minutes before the announcement was made as former Indian and fan-favorite Kenny Lofton stepped out of the dugout.

The crowd exploded once Lofton stepped out of the on-deck circle. They were on their feet for a full two minutes as Lofton went through his final motions before stepping into the batter's box. Lofton doffed his cap to the crowd to finalize the introduction for his third stint with the Cleveland Indians; he could not have received a warmer welcome.

Kenny received a standing ovation for each of his three hits Friday against the Twins.

Watching Lofton and Sizemore trot back to the dugout together during the first inning was beyond awesome, but I don't see Lofton as a way to bring back the teams from the 90's (it hurts me to hear people lament the loss of those teams, with such a great team right in front of them now). I do see him as a significant upgrade to the outfield and a crucial source of playoff experience on the youngest of the top contenders.

The Indians gave up single-A catcher Max Ramirez to get Kenny from Texas. Ramirez is having a great season with Kinston, but probably wouldn't contribute to the major league club for at least three more years. Ramirez has a lot of upside offensively, but a lot can happen to a minor league player's development before he reaches the majors. Another way to look at it is that Cleveland essentially traded Bob Wickman for Kenny Lofton; not a bad trade given their needs this season (although Wickman would have qualified as the extra late-inning reliever we need...ok, bad example).

The Lofton acquisition was made to bolster the outfield, but its effects reach well beyond the field. Lofton has what it takes to capture the attention of the average fan again. The 2007 Indians are in a sad situation as far as fan support at the Jake this year, despite fielding one of the best teams in baseball. As cautious as I am of comparing the 2007 club to one from the 1990's, Lofton represents a tangible link to that era. If a link to past teams is what it takes for the average fan to wake up and see just how great today's team is then so be it. Lofton could provide this spark for a dormant fanbase.

I'll go into detail on how Lofton fits into the Tribe's lineup in my next post.

Sleepy Kitten Gets Demoted

Cliff Lee as Sleepy Kitten; image courtesy of CarnegieAndOntario at LetsGoTribe.com











Cliff Lee was optioned to AAA Buffalo on Friday, less than a year removed from signing a major contract extension. As I said in my last post, Lee has been horrible this year and does not deserve a spot in the rotation of a major league contender. Despite Lee's performance on the mound, the last straw was drawn from his attitude. Lee has never shown much emotional investment in his career or the fate of his team. His apparent refusal to address issues with his pitch selection and execution (despite having the physical ability to do so) have placed him on the wrong side of his catcher and coaches. A five run inning elicits nothing more than an "aw shucks" and a sigh before he heads back into the dugout as if nothing happened. Lee's final act in an Indians uniform was to lift his cap in a mock acknowledgement of the booing Cleveland fans as he exited following his third straight game giving up 7 runs in less than 7 IP.

So how's that humble pie taste Cliffy?

In recounting the options the Tribe had in dealing with Lee, I overlooked the final minor league option he had left on his contract. The system behind it is a little complicated, but the bottom line is that Lee has not been on the 25-man roster long enough to eliminate all of his option years, allowing Cleveland to demote him this year.

Now, if you're the general manager, you obviously don't want a malcontent, $2.75 million pitcher hanging around your AAA staff too long. I'm still resolute in my thinking that Lee will never pitch for Cleveland again and will likely be traded to bolster the bullpen.

In an interview in the STO booth on Friday, Shapiro said "we're gonna get you [the team] that set up guy and then we're done; we're gonna sit back and watch." Lee could certainly be a part of that deal, but the minor league system is also loaded with excess parts in the outfield and firstbase.

If a deal can't get done before the July 31st deadline, any players involved would have to make it through waivers before the deal is finalized. Many post-deadline trades are struck down before they make it through the wire though, putting extra pressure on Shapiro to get a deal done by Tuesday night.

If Shapiro can convince another team that Lee still retains any semblance of a replacement level pitcher, his extremely desirable contract should weigh heavily on the minds of opposing GMs. Lee will be making $3.75 million in 2008, $5.75 million in 2009, and $8 million if his 2010 club option is picked up. That's a very tempting deal for a club looking to fill the fifth slot in their rotation (if they think they can get Lee to pull his head out of the sand, of course).

The most surprising part of the Lee situation is Aaron Laffey being called up to replace him. The Indians General Manager confirmed the decision on STO last night by saying, "in all likelihood, that [Lee's former rotation spot] will go to Aaron Laffey." Shapiro has a history of being very patient with young prospects (especially pitchers), which is why I did not expect him to make such a bold move. Shapiro traveled to Buffalo to see Laffey pitch in-person this week, so whatever Shap sees in this kid must be pretty darn good.

I think Laffey has the stuff to succeed at the next level. He is a groundball pitcher who has never given up many homers and has gradually increased his Ks and (significantly) decreased his BB totals each year. While I'm not particularly comfortable with giving a rotation slot to such an inexperienced pitcher, the fact that Shapiro has so much faith in the kid has caused me to soften my stance on the subject.

The following are two stat lines from two stud pitchers in the Tribe's minor league system:

Name	League	Age	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	WHIP
Pitcher A	A+	20	10	3-2	56	3.54	7.71	0.64	3.86	11.09	1.29
	AA	20	17	3-7	90.1	3.59	7.47	0.6	4.78	8.97	1.36

Name	League	Age	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	WHIP
Pitcher B	AA	22	6	4-1	35	2.31	7.46	0.51	1.8	6.17	1.03
	AAA	22	12	7-3	78.1	3.22	8.62	0.46	2.07	7.01	1.19

Pitcher A is C.C. Sabathia circa 2000 and Pitcher B is Aaron Laffey during the 2007 season. I'm not going to make too big a deal out of these stats, but it's an intriguing comparison. Another note is that Shapiro was Assistant GM to John Hart in 2001, Sabathia's rookie season. Just something to think about as Laffey's promotion approaches.

Optimus Pronk

Travis Hafner and the Cleveland Indians have agreed to a four year contract extension, according to the team’s website. According to the press release, exact financial details were not immediately available, though Foxsports.com reported the value of the extension at $57 million. The deal reportedly includes a club option for 2013.

The last year (2008) of Hafner’s old contract was reportedly reworked to give him a raise for that year. The new deal kicks in at the beginning of the 2009 season and ends in 2012 but, the club option for 2013 would actually add a fifth and final year onto the contract.

Given the previous contract talks already in place and Hafner’s struggles to meet expectations in the first half this season, I had a strong feeling a deal would be announced during the All Star break. It’s not yet clear who was calling the shots on getting a contract done so early: Shapiro, Scott Parker (the agent), or Hafner.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Hafner decided to take more of an active role in finishing the deal. There has been speculation that the pressure to perform leading up to his walk year has been a key factor in Hafner’s slump this season. It’ll be interesting to hear what’s on Pronk’s mind, assuming he gets interviewed at the press conference.

Like Shapiro’s previous contract negotiations, details were kept in-house until the deal was finalized and announced by Shap himself. I’m sure the players and their agents appreciate the privacy they are afforded during negotiations. The added pressure and speculation from the media in the bigger markets can often result in chaos and tends to complicate or even slow a transaction.

The best comparison for Hafner’s new contract was the extension David Ortiz signed in 2006 with Boston (contract terms taken from Cot’s Baseball Contracts)

Ortiz has a 4 year, $52 million contract (2007-2010), plus a $12.5 million club option for 2011.

Hafner has a 4 year, $57 million contract (2009-2012), plus an unknown salary for the club option in 2013.

Given the recent insanity on the free agent market, Hafner’s contract has the potential to be a blockbuster deal for the Tribe. Hafner will be 34 at the end of his core contract, offering the team crucial flexibility (payroll restrictions or otherwise; /knocks on wood) when the time comes for the fifth year team option. So essentially, Shapiro prevented the current market from bullying negotiations, locked up yet another core player and fan favorite, and possibly relieved one of his best offensive players of a significant mental burden. Excellent job, no matter what angle you look at it.

It seems Cleveland fans are somewhat divided over whether Hafner or Sabathia should be signed first. Outside of a major payroll hike, there will not be enough money to sign both to long-term contracts without crippling the general manager’s flexibility. I won’t go into detail on the debate for this post, but I’ve always been in the party that losing Hafner would make the biggest long-term impact. At the moment, the Indians do not have a way of replacing Hafner’s production in the lineup and there aren’t any AAA prospects that project to have that kind of presence either. Sabathia on the other hand, has über-prospect Adam Miller joining the rotation next season. Miller has a much better chance of developing into an ace than Cleveland does in finding another Hafner in the next two years.

Even if Sabathia walks, Shapiro has already locked up the rest of the team’s core player through 2010. Again, all contract information is taken from Cot’s Baseball Contracts:

Sizemore: 6 years/$23.45M (2006-11), plus $8.5M 2012 club option

Peralta: 5 years/$13M (2006-2010), plus $7M 2011 club option

Westbrook: 3 years/$33M (2008-10)

Martinez: 5 years/$15.5M (2005-09), plus $7M 2010 club option

Lee: 4 years/$15M (2006-09), plus 2010 club option

I wouldn’t consider Lee to be a “core” player, but given the outrageous contracts pitchers have been getting lately, the fact that we have him on the cheap is reassuring. That doesn’t even include Barfield, Carmona, Raffy Perez, Shoppach or Garko, who are under team control for multiple years as well.

If Cleveland played in a weaker division, they would have a chance to follow in Atlanta’s footsteps: maintaining a core, signing veteran role-players, and reloading every few years with the next crop of blue chip prospects. Unfortunately, it’s not that simple this time around, but Shapiro has positioned the Tribe to contend for quite a while.