Acta's Triage

Welcome to Cleveland, Manny Acta.

Only 35 games into his inaugural season as Cleveland’s manager, Acta had two of the three normally reliable players on his roster taken away. With shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera out until at least late July (8-10 weeks was the formal diagnosis, excluding minor league rehab time) and center fielder Grady Sizemore benched with a bum knee that may require surgery (he's soliciting second and third opinions from specialists this week), things are looking grim for the Tribe.

That’s not to say things were going according to plan beforehand, but few teams would be expected to fully recover after the loss of two cornerstone players (especially a team that’s already dug itself a bit of a hole in the standings).

You have to give Acta credit though, he’s maintained a positive attitude throughout, hoping it rubs off on the rest of the team as they try and find their way out of the basement (or at least to the top of the stairs).

"I choose to have a good attitude,” Acta explained, “You have to lead by example. If you come dragging in with your head down, you send the wrong message." It may sound like the usual dose of manager rhetoric (formerly referred to in this space as ‘Wedge Speak’), but the way Acta communicates and projects himself provides a stark contrast with his predecessor.

Acta’s main goal, especially with the younger players, is to hammer home the fundamentals (defense, smart base running, throwing strikes). Parts of his message have already translated to the field (fewer errors being committed), while others aren’t quite there (last in the AL in first-pitch strike percentage). However, I think the reason Acta will ultimately be successful is that the players see the enthusiasm and sincerity in how he approaches his job and it leaves them wanting to meet those expectations. They want to match Acta’s passion for the game and put forth their best effort.

I think Acta’s communication skills (in English or Español) and advanced knowledge of the game will allow him to engage and encourage his players in a way that Eric Wedge could not. Eventually, Wedge’s rigid system broke down under pressure and the team lost faith in his leadership. Acta has yet to be tested in a high stakes season (expectations for 2010 were understandably low), but it will be interesting to see how this team responds to pressure situations under his watch.

For now, Acta is tasked with installing his system and evaluating and developing personnel for the future. I’m confident Cleveland’s new manager has the team on the right track, even if recent trends have been disconcerting (to put it lightly).

The current challenge is to assemble a productive offense around Shin Soo Choo, some veteran spring training invitees, and a bunch of kids not yet accustomed to hitting in the Majors. As daunting as that may sound, I’m of the opinion that the day-to-day batting order doesn’t matter nearly as much as providing the players with a defined role and the appropriate amount of playing time.

Acta has expressed his desire to win, but understands that “we have to develop players too.” The skipper recognizes the value in the remaining three-quarters of the season to further develop a young, largely inexperienced, and not quite cohesive unit into a respectable squad for the second half of 2010 and beyond. So what can we expect as far as playing time, minor league call-ups, and roster management while Cabrera and Sizemore are sidelined?

Jason Donald will be the Tribe’s starting shortstop for the foreseeable future. Donald, acquired from Philadelphia as part of the Cliff Lee package, had zero experience at the major league level before his debut on May 18. Donald had built a strong case for a promotion in Triple-A Columbus this season, compiling a .277/.396/.423 line with 10 doubles, 2 triples, 2 homers, and 10 stolen bases in 165 PA. With Luis Valbuena’s game coming apart at the seams (54 OPS+, 5 errors on the season), Donald was already on the fast track for a promotion.

Valbuena’s performance and the sudden injury to Cabrera paved the way for Donald to be named starter, ready or not. Spring training invitee Mark Grudzielanek had already earned the everyday second baseman’s gig of his own merit, leaving Valbuena in a reduced role as utility infielder.

The veteran Grudzielanek provides a significant upgrade over Valbuena in every aspect of the game, except power (which is irrelevant, since Valbuena’s power stroke has yet to return). Grudz may be a journeyman at this point in his career, but he still has an above-average glove and had a .345 OBP in 2008 (he missed most of 2009 due to a back injury).

Acta’s initial endorsement of Valbuena as the team’s second baseman at the start of the season looks hollow in hindsight. Valbuena already had one foot out the door prior to Donald’s arrival, but the organization isn’t ready to give up on him. Valbuena will continue to see a start or two each week, likely confined to second base, to allow him to work through his funk at the plate. Even if they fall into a slump, Donald and Grudzielanek’s defense will keep them in the lineup.

Andy Marte is due to come off the DL next week, but a lack of extra middle infielders (Peralta will not be playing short, says Acta) on the 25-man roster may see the recently recalled Shelley Duncan (currently occupying Sizemore’s roster spot) get sent down instead of Valbuena. Remember, Marte is out of minor league options.

Trevor Crowe was actually called up to spell Marte, but his fate is now tied to that of Sizemore’s knee. Crowe had been on the coaching staff’s radar after a memorable effort in spring training, only to lose the fourth outfielder gig to Michael Brantley (who appeared in a grand total of 9 games).

Some fans may be wondering why Trevor Crowe got called up instead of Brantley. Crowe’s promotion was initially in response to Andy Marte’s injury, meaning the team wasn’t planning on keeping him up for more than a couple weeks. The organization wanted Brantley (and Donald for that matter) to continue seeing everyday at-bats in Triple-A, so they were passed over. When Crowe caught fire in Cleveland, he gave little reason for the club to demote him even after the prognosis on Sizemore’s knee got worse. Why mess with a good thing?

Personally, I’m glad the team stuck with Crowe. There are too many first-round picks wasting away in Triple-A in this organization. If Crowe has something to offer, the team couldn’t have been handed a better opportunity to find out. Crowe is 26 years old, already has 202 major league PA under his belt, and center field is wide open. Sure he may not be as talented as Brantley, that’s not the point. There are only so many at-bats to go around and a line of young players in need of an extended look. Crowe deserves this opportunity more than Brantley, in my opinion.

Under normal circumstances, Acta views the switch-hitting Crowe as an ideal fourth outfielder, able to provide excellent defense and speed off the bench. Instead, he’s been anointed the leadoff hitter and everyday center fielder. Crowe has responded to the organization’s vote of confidence in a big way, with a slash line of .324/.390/.432 with 12 H, 4 BB, and 3 SB in his first 9 games (41 PA) entering Monday’s series against Chicago. The 26-year-old Crowe is currently outperforming his career line of .276/.354/.407 at Triple-A. Combined with a .355 BABIP, Crowe is probably playing over his head right now. As long as he’s hitting though, that leadoff spot is his.

It’s not like the team has any clear cut leadoff hitters anyway. Grudzielanek? Donald? Choo is far-and-away the best available hitter, but someone has to drive in the runs. Plus, it would be a waste to have Choo’s power batting leadoff. Instead, Acta has tapped Choo to continue his noble “bat Sizemore second” experiment (a brilliant move I’ll continue to defend, if only Sizemore had hit…). Choo’s response? Two taters in three games, so far.

Proposed Cleveland Lineup

Order	Starter (sub)	GS (PA)	wOBA^	ISO	WAR
1	T. Crowe#	8 (41)	.375	.108	0.4
2	S. Choo*	42 (190)	.405	.176	2.1
3	J. Peralta	39 (167)	.323	.160	0.2
4	T. Hafner*	37 (160)	.363	.145	0.7
5	A. Kearns	29 (130)	.383	.183	1.1
6	R. Branyan*	19 (84)	.319	.219	0.3
7	M. Grudzielanek	20 (95)	.283	.000	0.2
8	L. Marson	29 (106)	.247	.042	-0.1
9	J. Donald	6 (23)	.148	.000	-0.2
	(M. LaPorta)	24 (106)	.249	.061	-0.5
	(L. Valbuena*)	25 (102)	.250	.107	-0.4
	(M. Redmond)	13 (49)	.269	.091	-0.2
DL	(A. Marte)	8 (32)	.338	.208	0.1
DL	G. Sizemore*	31 (140)	.255	.078	-0.4
DL	A. Cabrera#	33 (149)	.303	.081	-0.1

*Lefty; #Switch

^League average is roughly .335

Stats courtesy of FanGraphs, current as of 5/24/10

The rest of the lineup that’s been trotted out for the past 9 games has been fairly conventional. Speed at the top, power in the middle, light weights and scrubs at the bottom. The speedy Jason Donald is sort of the “second” leadoff man batting ninth, similar to how Brantley was deployed at the start of the season. Meanwhile, Peralta really shouldn’t be batting lower than fourth now that he’s broken out of his usual April doldrums (this opinion subject to change in 30 days).

The bottom half of the lineup is almost a throw-away with Grudzielanek setting the table for the punch-less LaPorta and Marson. The heart of the order isn’t too bad though, assuming Hafner’s bat continues to come around, Kearns doesn’t become a black hole when the inevitable regression hits (.421 BABIP!), and Branyan does….well, I guess the home runs are nice. I’m pretty comfortable with a lineup starting off with [Hot Hand of the Month], Choo, Peralta, Hafner, Kearns, and Branyan. You know, considering the circumstances. Cleveland’s lineup isn’t about to send Francisco Liriano running for the hills, but it might make Luke Hochevar break a sweat (those complete games are hard work).

Again, the lineup doesn’t really matter much in the long run. Acta might be able to eke out some extra runs by shuffling the batting order and playing the splits, but consistency and playing time are the name of the game for a young ball club trying to get its act together. Not to mention, the makeup of the offense could be in line for a dramatic overhaul once Carlos Santana comes to town. Remember what a difference it made when Victor Martinez went down with an injury in 2008? Ok, maybe you don’t because Kelly Shoppach had a career year and belted 21 homers as a catcher. Still, it’s going to be a big deal when Santana arrives in June.

Quotable Acta

When asked whether it's tough to get reliever Rafael Perez enough work in non-pressure situations:

"Life is tough. Get a helmet."

When asked about the loss of his number 1 and 2 hitters a week later:

“Life is tough, get a double-flap helmet. It provides more protection from both sides.”

Tribe Loses Cabrera in a Botched Shift

Asdrubal Cabrera has to be one of the unluckiest players in Cleveland history, which is saying something given the crappy luck that franchise has had. In a collision that turned out to be much worse than it looked, Cabrera fractured his left forearm in the first inning of Monday’s game at Tampa Bay.

A shift was on for Hank Blalock, moving Jhonny Peralta to the shortstop position and Cabrera over to the first base side. Blalock hit a ground ball about a foot left of the bag, directly between the two infielders. Running at full speed to make a play on the ball, neither player appears to see each other until it’s too late. In an attempt to slow down at the last second, Peralta slides into and on top of Cabrera, placing Cabrera’s arm in an awkward position underneath his torso and causing the fractured bone.

I was ready to place the blame on Peralta for the incident (which I’m sure was the knee-jerk reaction for a lot of fans), but upon further review, there really wasn’t anything Peralta could have done to avoid the collision once the play began. Below is a series of screenshots showing the play in question:

Normally, if Peralta and Cabrera were converging on a ball, their routes would overlap with one backing up the other. Because of the shift and the direction the ball took towards second base, their ranges overlapped.

Here, you can see Peralta and Cabrera converging on the ball at nearly the same time. Both are focused on the ball and getting ready to make a play and fail to notice the other player bearing down on them.

After watching the replay several times, I think this is the point where the play broke down and turned dangerous. Some may blame Peralta’s inability to get out of the way in time or point out that the shortstop should have received priority on the play, but the collision resulted from a lack of communication and the departure of the standard infield procedures. This is partly due to the unusual circumstances presented by the shift.

To my knowledge, infielders don’t typically call out for a ground ball, it just reverts to whoever is closest to the area of play at the time. An initial verbal cue could have prevented the collision, though such an act is far from second nature for a ground ball up the middle. Cabrera may have been a few steps closer to where the ball rolled through, but it was very close; arguably too close for the players to reasonably judge in the middle of a quick play like that. However, they did have an opportunity to either discuss the shift with each other or note where people were positioned prior to that first pitch to Blalock. It’s unclear whether this actually happened or not.

Both players are still looking over their shoulder at the ball and not paying attention to each other. Peralta seems to be taking a route slightly behind Cabrera.

At this point, Peralta notices Cabrera diving towards him at an angle to cut off the ball and he attempts to put on the brakes. Keep in mind that they are both going at full tilt right now.

Peralta tries to skid to a halt on his knee, but his momentum continues to carry him…

...until he briefly rolls over Cabrera. It appears that Peralta was able to avoid dropping his full weight onto Cabrera, propping himself up with his knee. Unfortunately, Cabrera’s arm is trapped between the ground and the point where Peralta’s weight does land, which places too much stress on the bone and fractures it.

Again, I feel that blame for the collision lies with both players, even though Cabrera took the hit. There are measures each player could have taken collaboratively or on his own to prevent the accident, yet presumably failed to do so. The severity of Cabrera’s injury still seems like a fluke to me though. If I had watched the replay without knowing the aftermath, I would have been surprised to hear it caused a broken arm. There just didn’t seem to be enough contact or force involved.

That said, I feel absolutely terrible for Cabrera. He had begun to establish himself as a key member of the team as starting shortstop and leadoff hitter this season, only to have it derailed early on. Last season, Cabrera missed nearly a month after dislocating his shoulder while sliding into second to break up a double play. Both were fairly routine plays that for whatever reason, ended in a serious injury.

Is Cabrera at risk of developing into one of those brilliant, yet fragile players during his career? Even though he was a starter for all of 2009, Cabrera was only healthy enough to appear in 131 games that year. Over the course of the 2009 season, he suffered a hip strain, ankle injury (running out to his position between innings), knee contusion (fouled off a ball), the dislocated shoulder, and had surgery to remove loose bodies in his elbow after the season. So far in 2010, he’s had a strained groin in spring training, a quad strain, and the broken arm. All those little injuries are seemingly starting to pile up for the 24-year-old shortstop.

I think it’s still too early to write off Cabrera as a chronic injury risk, partly due to his age and the unavoidable or routine nature of some of the injuries. Plus, a major item was overlooked in the list above: how much time was actually missed from these injuries. It may be a lengthy list compared to some players, but it’s not nearly as bad as it seems. Twenty five of the games he missed in 2009 resulted solely from the dislocated shoulder. Had he not collided with the infielder’s leg on that play, Cabrera would have appeared in at least 156 games (that’s over 96% of the season). If that were the case, I wouldn’t have given his injury history a second thought.

Raising the White Flag

It's pretty obvious. If you're looking for an announcement that we're going to start trading guys, you won't get that until we make our first trade. But I think it's fairly obvious at this point.

-Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro, 7/2/08

The white flag was officially raised by Cleveland this week with 77 games remaining in the season. The decline of this year’s squad has been one long, painful slump after another. If it wasn’t the offense, it was the bullpen. If it wasn’t the bullpen (though it usually was), it was the starting pitching. As the injuries stacked up, it became more and more apparent that this team would not have the talent needed to contend.

There was certainly some risks and elevated expectations going into the 2008 season. Even if the team was completely healthy, they would have had a tough time improving on their ALCS appearance last year. Half the analysts from Bristol to Minneapolis were picking the Indians to make the playoffs again, maybe even go all the way. How much that pressure weighed on the players and the coaching staff, nobody knows except the people in the dugout. After all the seasoning this team has gone through since 2005, I doubt few players gave the pressure of making the playoffs again a second thought. Besides, hanging a season with this many speed bumps on mental hiccups just doesn’t make any sense.

The risk I was referring to is going into a season with out making any major upgrades or additions to the team. This is about the biggest hindsight criticism one can make, but it’s true; there was a degree of risk involved. Shapiro placed a lot of faith in young players like Garko, Gutierrez, and Cabrera to take the next step and they stumbled. Veterans who were charged with carrying left field, third base, and the closer role failed miserably. Even the vaunted core of Sizemore, Martinez, Peralta, and Hafner couldn’t save the season, as the catcher and DH succumbed to injuries for a crucial stretch of the season. The starting pitching was the one bright spot this season, until two of the most consistent starters found themselves on the DL as well.

Despite the hindsight argument that Shapiro failed to bolster the offense as teams like Boston and Detroit got stronger, we’ll never know the true potential of this group of players because two of the three main offensive cogs were never healthy to begin with. There is no way anyone could have predicted such a handicap, thus there was no way to prepare for it in the offseason (how much he knew about Hafner’s shoulder is arguable, but that would be pure speculation here). An offense does not fluctuate like a bullpen; these players had a history of success offensively and Shapiro made a perfectly defensible decision to stick with them.

Obviously this season was disappointing, but when you get down to it anything short of a Word Series win would have been a disappointment in the end. 2007 was one of the greatest seasons I’ve ever experienced as an Indians fan, yet it was all a mere stepping stone toward a long awaited goal. It’s not uncommon for a strong contender to take a step back the season after. Whether players leave, get injured, regress, age, or have the wear of a playoff run catch up to them, it’s extremely difficult to sustain.

Granted, some teams are the exception to this rule (Oakland, New York, Boston, Atlanta are the most recent….the list gets much shorter after that).

I believe Cleveland may have fallen victim to its own success in a way. Were Shapiro and Wedge overconfident because of the team’s past accomplishments?

Maybe.

Did pitchers like Carmona, Westbrook, and Betancourt over-work their arms by throwing so many strenuous innings?

Possibly.

Fluctuations like these are part of the game; you just have to hope your team can stay ahead of the curve.

In a way, it’s beneficial that Cleveland tanked this year. The team’s struggles were a quick (albeit painful) way of weeding out holes in the lineup and who should be shipped out. With any luck and a little less stubbornness from Wedge, the team will finally have a no-risk opportunity to evaluate Andy Marte in the Majors. Cleveland can also convert the value Sabathia may have offered in the playoffs into a young, cornerstone player for 2009 or 2010.

Falling out of contention may be a blessing in disguise if the return for Sabathia fills in one of those offensive holes that have plagued the team lately. There’s no way this team would trade Sabathia if it were still gunning for a playoff spot.

Below is my list of things I’d like to see happen now that Cleveland has raised the white flag and started taking entries for the C.C. Sweepstakes. I’ll go into more detail on a few of these later this week:

1.) Trade Sabathia

The trade winds blowing through Cleveland are practically a hurricane now. The two most convincing reports I’ve heard so far come out of Milwaukee and Los Angeles. Milwaukee appears to be the front runner out of the many teams supposedly scouting Sabathia this month. It sounds like the Tribe may get a stud prospect or two after all. I’m going to wait and see how the rumors play out, but look for a possible announcement from the team next week.

2.) Play Andy Marte for the rest of the season

I don’t care if it’s at DH or third base, Wedge needs to play Marte NOW. If Shapiro has to twist Wedge’s arm to make this happen, that’s just fine with me. Marte has no minor league options left and has accumulated a grand total of 164, 57, and 55 at-bats with Cleveland over the 2006-2008 seasons.

This is not a fair means of evaluation for any player, let alone a 24 year old that was considered one of the best prospects in the game not too long ago. Blake is not the future, but there’s a strong possibility Marte is. If the poor kid doesn’t get called off the bench soon, he may just go all Shawn Chacon on Wedgie.

3.) Get rid of Borowski

Borowski was designated for assignment today, since the team doesn’t have to pretend it needs him closing out games anymore. I appreciate the solid 45 save season he gave us last year, but his time with Cleveland should have ended well before now.

4.) Dump Dellucci

Please?

5.) Trade Casey Blake

Again, I appreciate the past contributions, but we’re not talking about Todd Helton or Ken Griffey here, this is the type of player that you trade when you’re out of contention. Consider Casey’s $6.1 mil expiring contract, age, and the fact that we have Andy Marte rotting on the bench and that’s reason enough to trade him in my opinion.

There are plenty of contending teams that could use a super-utility man like Blake and his value has likely peaked for this season. Blake posted an OPS of .670 and .691 for April and May, respectively. Unless you think he can sustain a .954 OPS on a .420 BAbip beyond the month of June (he can’t) I say trade him while might be of value.

6.) Hold tryouts for the 2009 closer position

I’ve said before that I think Jensen Lewis and Masahide Kobayashi are the strongest contenders for closer next year. This may be a bit tricky though, as both pitchers are having trouble adapting to their recent increase in innings and will need to be handled carefully.

Lewis pitched 81 innings between AA, AAA, and the Majors in 2007. The last time he threw that many innings in a season was 2006 when he was still a starter at Kinston. Kobayashi averaged just 48 IP over the last three years in the shortened, 144 game Pro Yakyu season. Kobayashi has already logged 41 innings for Cleveland so far.

7.) Give Hafner and Martinez as much time as they need to heal

It's pretty much a lock that we won't see these two suit up again until they're 100% healthy. As I've said before, I think having Hafner sit out this season to fix his weakened shoulder and any holes in his swing will greatly benefit the team in the long run. Ditto for Martinez, whose choice to play through intense pain was admirable, but it's time to get that elbow permanently healthy.

Projecting an Injured Offense

Cleveland baseball is once again in the news as trade rumors swirl around C.C. Sabathia. The pace has picked up since Cleveland is struggling to hold its head above water. The Tribe has fallen to last place in the AL Central, 8.5 games behind Chicago. I’ll be the first to admit that I sold Chicago well short earlier in the season, but it looks like they’ll be hanging around until the end.

Chicago’s pitching staff has been carrying the team with a 3.41 team ERA, second best in the AL. The biggest difference between the Sox and the Tribe is that Chicago boasts a power laden lineup of relatively healthy veterans. Manager Ozzie Guillen snapped his offense out of an early funk and it’s paid off in the win column. Chicago ranks first in homeruns (103) and run differential (1.26), and fourth in runs scored (385) in the AL.

To make matters worse, Detroit has finally started to show signs of life offensively. Detroit’s been averaging 4.95 runs per game in June amassing a 15-8 record. Minnesota has proven to be a wild card in the Central, winning 10 in a row and trailing Chicago by just a half game. The Twins have quietly scored the third most runs in the AL (388), despite a reputation for anemic offense in recent years.

Minnesota is a complete surprise to me, but they are only playing three games over their Pythagorean record right now, so they could end up being a major spoiler. Cleveland is four games under their Pythag, which translates to a 40-39 record. The only other team playing under their Pythag is Chicago and they’re in first place.

With the Indians now chasing three contenders for the Division Crown, the rumor mill has only sped up. At what point can you stick a fork in Cleveland? It’s been well publicized that the Central is more balanced this year and even an 8 game lead is vulnerable with 82 games remaining (just ask the Twins). On the other hand, Cleveland has been severely depleted by injuries.

By trading Sabathia, the front office would be conceding the season and preparing for 2009. There have already been some excellent discussions of Sabathia’s value in a possible trade at LGT and The Diatribe, so I won’t be revisiting that topic. Instead, I’d like to get a better idea of what this lineup is capable of without Martinez and Hafner for an extended period.

Can this team realistically contend with the players they have now or is this as good as it gets offensively?

Player	Procedure	Rehab Time	Possible Return Dates
V. Martinez	Removal of bone chips in right (throwing) elbow	6 - 8 weeks	July 26 - August 9
T. Hafner	Muscle strengthening program for rotator cuff and right shoulder	4 - 6 weeks (rough estimate)	July 17 - July 31 (rough estimate)
J. Barfield	Surgery on left, middle finger ligament	6 - 8 weeks	July 29 - August 12

Victor Martinez is by far the biggest loss to the lineup and will probably be the last to return. The wait should be worth it though as Martinez will be playing pain free for the first time all season. Martinez described his limitations in a recent interview with Castrovince:

When I really wanted to put something on a swing, I wasn't able. Every time I tried to get extension, I felt a sharp pain in my elbow. Man, it was tough. It's tough to play like that.

The amazing part is that despite being hampered by severe pain and limited mobility in his throwing elbow, Martinez still threw out 39% of all base stealers and hit .278. Martinez was also nagged by a sore hamstring, which will have ample time to heal. In other words, all those concerns about Victor losing his power (0 HR this year) and suffering from wear behind the plate can be thrown out the window. I think Martinez will explode out of the gate when he finally gets back.

The tricky part is making up the difference while the teams most consistent hitter recovers from surgery. According to the Cleveland Clinic’s database:

Recovery varies from one week to several months, depending on the extent of the surgery. Most patients can return to heavy work and sports within three to six weeks of surgery if the procedure is minor. However, three to six months is often required for complete recovery.

A best case scenario has Victor starting as DH or at first base if Hafner isn’t back yet. It’s unlikely that Wedge would use Victor behind the plate until his elbow is close to 100%. Otherwise, base runners will be constantly testing his throwing arm.

I’d like to provide a similar take on Hafner, but it’s difficult to say at what point he was truly healthy this season, if at all. How far back has his shoulder bothered him to the point of being a handicap on his swing? The outlook did not sound optimistic and Hafner is currently behind in his strength training program. The latest report says Hafner “has improved the strength in his injured right shoulder 15 percent since his last assessment two weeks ago, but it still remains just 45-50 percent as strong as his left shoulder."

Heading into 2008, Cleveland’s offense was really built around Sizemore, Martinez, and Hafner. I’m guessing the Front Office is betting (for or against, I don’t know) on Hafner making a full recovery and becoming a force on offense again. A reasonable expectation could be Hafner circa-2007 (.837 OPS, 24 HR) with a gradual return to form somewhere between his 2006 (1.097 OPS, 42 HR) and 2007 numbers. Again, it will be tough to gauge just how much Hafner’s weakened shoulder contributed to his steep decline, so it’s really anybody’s guess how he will respond in-game until he’s healthy again.

With a four year contract extension about to kick in and a healthy shoulder, Hafner will be out of excuses upon his return. It’s about time Pronk showed his face again and he may have to if the offense in its current state will ever truly get back on track.

Barfield’s turn of bad luck took him out of the lineup before he could even make an impression, so there’s not much to say on him. Barfield posted a .297 OBP and .382 SLG over 259 AB in AAA Buffalo this year, so it’s a safe bet he wouldn’t have outperformed Jamey Carroll. Cleveland never planned on having much offense come out of second base anyway, so the choice between Barfield and Carroll may have ended up as a semi-platoon. It would have been nice to test Barfield’s progress, but it would have been a bit of a luxury considering how desperate the team is for offense.

Sources and Assumptions

I made a few key assumptions in compiling and analyzing the stats below. First, I created a baseline using the 2008 CHONE projections for each player (courtesy of Sean Smith’s blog). I debated whether the more useful data here would be career stats or projected stats for 2008. I decided that career numbers for veteran players (Hafner, Dellucci) would be skewed by far removed seasons (like a career year or rookie season) as much as a projection system might make some poor assumptions for a rookie (like Francisco).

In this case, I’ll be comparing the 2008 projections with the 2008 actual stats. Then, I’ll try a few combinations of under-performing or missing players to see how it effects the overall offensive production. It’s worth noting that I was limited to traditional stats for the comparison due to the inclusion of the projections. I only included players who have seen a substantial amount of action and are still available, so that eliminates Jason Michaels (58 AB) and Barfield (injured, 6 AB). Also, I chose CHONE because I’m notoriously cheap and don’t have access to this year’s PECOTA projections, in case you were wondering.

It was difficult to compile a true team OPS, since I don’t have a big database of the entire team (complete with hits, walks, and all the stuff that goes into calculating OBP and SLG) that I can add or subtract players from (like pitchers). Since the main thing I wanted was the concrete difference between an actual and optimized lineup, I took the averages of each players OPS and measured the differences between each lineup. This provides a rougher analysis, but gets the job done.

All stats were taken from FanGraphs and are current as of June 28.

The Stats

2008 CHONE Projections

Player	AB	HR	HR/AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
T. Hafner	499	29	0.06	.279	.402	.515	.917
G. Sizemore	602	23	0.04	.287	.387	.488	.876
V. Martinez	539	20	0.04	.286	.370	.462	.832
R. Garko	505	19	0.04	.267	.347	.440	.787
J. Peralta	544	19	0.03	.270	.347	.438	.785
C. Blake	514	19	0.04	.255	.330	.428	.758
D. Dellucci	274	10	0.04	.237	.332	.409	.741
B. Francisco	467	13	0.03	.261	.318	.413	.731
A. Marte	464	16	0.03	.246	.311	.414	.725
F. Gutierrez	441	12	0.03	.259	.317	.404	.721
S. Choo	474	9	0.02	.259	.335	.382	.717
A. Cabrera	527	7	0.01	.258	.322	.370	.692
K. Shoppach	253	10	0.04	.225	.295	.395	.690
J. Carroll	373	3	0.01	.241	.326	.314	.640
Average:			0.03	.259	.337	.419	.756

Actual 2008 Season Stats as of June 28

Player	AB	HR	HR/AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
G. Sizemore	301	17	0.06	.262	.368	.505	.873
S. Choo	59	2	0.03	.271	.392	.475	.867
B. Francisco	179	5	0.03	.291	.347	.458	.805
C. Blake	246	7	0.03	.268	.339	.431	.770
K. Shoppach	122	5	0.04	.246	.319	.443	.762
J. Carroll	157	0	0.00	.293	.378	.369	.747
J. Peralta	279	11	0.04	.244	.293	.427	.720
D. Dellucci	183	7	0.04	.219	.304	.388	.692
R. Garko	249	6	0.02	.249	.333	.357	.690
T. Hafner	157	4	0.03	.217	.326	.350	.676
V. Martinez	198	0	0.00	.278	.332	.333	.665
F. Gutierrez	189	3	0.02	.233	.282	.344	.626
A. Cabrera	158	1	0.01	.184	.282	.247	.529
A. Marte	51	0	0.00	.137	.185	.157	.342
Average:			0.02	.242	.319	.377	.696

It's no surprise that Sizemore is leading the way on offense, but to see Choo and Francisco sporting the second and third best OPS on the team (by a sizable margin) was unexpected. Choo has responded well to the Majors since coming back from Tommy John surgery. Choo had a .846 OPS in 146 AB in 2006, so his current production is certainly within his means. Choo is a much needed addition to right field, as Gutierrez has been a disappointment so far (.430 OPS in June).

Another unexpected savior of the offense has been Ben Francisco. CHONE projected him with a modest rookie season with 13 HR, a .318 OBP, and a .413 SLG, but Ben is having a breakout season. While he's not blowing the doors off, Ben has made a smooth transition from his MVP season in Buffalo with 5 HR and a .291, .347, .458 line.

The production from Choo, Francisco, and Carroll (.856 OPS) this month is largely negated by ongoing slumps from guys like Peralta (.637 OPS) and Garko (.660 OPS), who were supposed to be primary contributors this season.

Difference Between Actual and CHONE Averages

Player	HR/AB	BA	OPS
T. Hafner	-0.03	-0.062	-0.241
G. Sizemore	0.02	-0.025	-0.003
V. Martinez	-0.04	-0.008	-0.167
R. Garko	-0.01	-0.018	-0.097
J. Peralta	0.00	-0.026	-0.065
C. Blake	-0.01	0.013	0.012
D. Dellucci	0.00	-0.018	-0.049
B. Francisco	0.00	0.03	0.074
A. Marte	-0.03	-0.109	-0.383
F. Gutierrez	-0.01	-0.026	-0.095
S. Choo	0.01	0.012	0.150
A. Cabrera	-0.01	-0.074	-0.163
K. Shoppach	0.00	0.021	0.072
J. Carroll	-0.01	0.052	0.107
Total Difference:	-0.11	-0.238	-0.848

This table just highlights the number of players who are currently underachieving, according to their anticipated production for 2008.

The main question is, what can we realistically expect from this group of players for the long haul? There's a very real possibility that Hafner and/or Martinez will not return in time to make an impact on the season. Even if they do, they may not be fully effective at the plate for some time.

Below are a few scenarios based on the actual and projected stats:

Optimized Lineup Using Available Players

Player	AB	HR	HR/AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
G. Sizemore	602	23	0.04	.287	.387	.488	.876
S. Choo*	59	2	0.03	.271	.392	.475	.867
B. Francisco*	179	5	0.03	.291	.347	.458	.805
R. Garko	505	19	0.04	.267	.347	.440	.787
J. Peralta	544	19	0.03	.270	.347	.438	.785
C. Blake*	246	7	0.03	.268	.339	.431	.770
K. Shoppach*	122	5	0.04	.246	.319	.443	.762
J. Carroll*	157	0	0.00	.293	.378	.369	.747
D. Dellucci	274	10	0.04	.237	.332	.409	.741
A. Marte	464	16	0.03	.246	.311	.414	.725
F. Gutierrez	441	12	0.03	.259	.317	.404	.721
Average:			0.03	.266	.346	.433	.779

This table lists the current stats of players who are significantly outperforming their CHONE projections, as indicated by an asterisk. If you combine these overachievers with the expected (CHONE) numbers for the rest of the current roster (minus Martinez and Hafner) you end up with a pretty potent offense. This "optimized" lineup has a difference of .083 OPS points compared to the actual lineup listed at the top. Again, this is a fairly unrealistic lineup as long-slumping players would have to break out in the second half in addition to some hot hitting from Francisco and company.

Actual Stats Plus Hafner and Martinez CHONE Projections

Player	AB	HR	HR/AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
T. Hafner*	499	29	0.06	.279	.402	.515	.917
G. Sizemore	301	17	0.06	.262	.368	.505	.873
S. Choo	59	2	0.03	.271	.392	.475	.867
V. Martinez*	539	20	0.04	.286	.370	.462	.832
B. Francisco	179	5	0.03	.291	.347	.458	.805
C. Blake	246	7	0.03	.268	.339	.431	.770
K. Shoppach	122	5	0.04	.246	.319	.443	.762
J. Carroll	157	0	0.00	.293	.378	.369	.747
J. Peralta	279	11	0.04	.244	.293	.427	.720
D. Dellucci	183	7	0.04	.219	.304	.388	.692
R. Garko	249	6	0.02	.249	.333	.357	.690
T. Hafner	157	4	0.03	.217	.326	.350	.676
V. Martinez	198	0	0.00	.278	.332	.333	.665
F. Gutierrez	189	3	0.02	.233	.282	.344	.626
A. Marte	51	0	0.00	.137	.185	.157	.342
Average:			0.03	.242	.331	.400	.731

The second scenario takes the actual stats, but inserts the 2008 CHONE projections for Martinez and Hafner. There are two obvious issues here. First, I seriously doubt Hafner posts a .917 OPS in the second half. Martinez's numbers are more realistic and I'm confident he will hit the ground running when healthy. The second issue is just how bad the rest of the lineup is in comparison. Even with some overly optimistic numbers from the two DL players, the average OPS only increases by .035 points.

Keeping in mind that this .731 OPS is very rough due to the limitations discussed earlier, let's compare it to the other AL teams:

Team	R / G	OPS	BA / RISP
Texas	5.51	.803	.274
Boston	5.01	.803	.264
Detroit	4.83	.768	.270
Minnesota	4.83	.722	.314
Chicago	4.78	.771	.286
New York	4.69	.773	.252
Tampa	4.66	.753	.267
Oakland	4.51	.706	.281
Cleveland	4.44	.708	.268
Baltimore	4.42	.744	.270
Anaheim	4.29	.708	.279
Toronto	4.14	.725	.243

While a .731 OPS would be a significant upgrade over the current .708 OPS for Cleveland, it really doesn't guarantee much in terms of overall run production. Cleveland would move up in the offensive rankings, but would still fail to crack the top six and would likely struggle to win games without some insane pitching (like Anaheim).

Since we're dealing with an average, removing the biggest outlier (Marte's .342 OPS) should tighten up the team OPS a bit. Without Marte's stats, the average OPS shoots up to .760. Even a .760 OPS is middle of the pack for the teams listed above, but would be a massive improvement on the current .708. For comparison, the team OPS in 2007 was .771.

One trend I wasn't expecting was the loose correlation between team OPS and runs scored. I added BA/RISP to try and account for this. Cleveland has one of the worst team OPS', but have been fairly efficient in driving in the few baserunners they have.

My conclusion is that even with a healthy and productive Martinez and Hafner, the Tribe's offense would still be in trouble. A lot of things will have to fall into place for this team to even hang with the top contenders. An ineffective bullpen (4.78 season ERA) and the loss of Carmona and Westbrook make relying on the pitching staff to win games a risky proposition.