Raising the White Flag

It's pretty obvious. If you're looking for an announcement that we're going to start trading guys, you won't get that until we make our first trade. But I think it's fairly obvious at this point.

-Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro, 7/2/08

The white flag was officially raised by Cleveland this week with 77 games remaining in the season. The decline of this year’s squad has been one long, painful slump after another. If it wasn’t the offense, it was the bullpen. If it wasn’t the bullpen (though it usually was), it was the starting pitching. As the injuries stacked up, it became more and more apparent that this team would not have the talent needed to contend.

There was certainly some risks and elevated expectations going into the 2008 season. Even if the team was completely healthy, they would have had a tough time improving on their ALCS appearance last year. Half the analysts from Bristol to Minneapolis were picking the Indians to make the playoffs again, maybe even go all the way. How much that pressure weighed on the players and the coaching staff, nobody knows except the people in the dugout. After all the seasoning this team has gone through since 2005, I doubt few players gave the pressure of making the playoffs again a second thought. Besides, hanging a season with this many speed bumps on mental hiccups just doesn’t make any sense.

The risk I was referring to is going into a season with out making any major upgrades or additions to the team. This is about the biggest hindsight criticism one can make, but it’s true; there was a degree of risk involved. Shapiro placed a lot of faith in young players like Garko, Gutierrez, and Cabrera to take the next step and they stumbled. Veterans who were charged with carrying left field, third base, and the closer role failed miserably. Even the vaunted core of Sizemore, Martinez, Peralta, and Hafner couldn’t save the season, as the catcher and DH succumbed to injuries for a crucial stretch of the season. The starting pitching was the one bright spot this season, until two of the most consistent starters found themselves on the DL as well.

Despite the hindsight argument that Shapiro failed to bolster the offense as teams like Boston and Detroit got stronger, we’ll never know the true potential of this group of players because two of the three main offensive cogs were never healthy to begin with. There is no way anyone could have predicted such a handicap, thus there was no way to prepare for it in the offseason (how much he knew about Hafner’s shoulder is arguable, but that would be pure speculation here). An offense does not fluctuate like a bullpen; these players had a history of success offensively and Shapiro made a perfectly defensible decision to stick with them.

Obviously this season was disappointing, but when you get down to it anything short of a Word Series win would have been a disappointment in the end. 2007 was one of the greatest seasons I’ve ever experienced as an Indians fan, yet it was all a mere stepping stone toward a long awaited goal. It’s not uncommon for a strong contender to take a step back the season after. Whether players leave, get injured, regress, age, or have the wear of a playoff run catch up to them, it’s extremely difficult to sustain.

Granted, some teams are the exception to this rule (Oakland, New York, Boston, Atlanta are the most recent….the list gets much shorter after that).

I believe Cleveland may have fallen victim to its own success in a way. Were Shapiro and Wedge overconfident because of the team’s past accomplishments?

Maybe.

Did pitchers like Carmona, Westbrook, and Betancourt over-work their arms by throwing so many strenuous innings?

Possibly.

Fluctuations like these are part of the game; you just have to hope your team can stay ahead of the curve.

In a way, it’s beneficial that Cleveland tanked this year. The team’s struggles were a quick (albeit painful) way of weeding out holes in the lineup and who should be shipped out. With any luck and a little less stubbornness from Wedge, the team will finally have a no-risk opportunity to evaluate Andy Marte in the Majors. Cleveland can also convert the value Sabathia may have offered in the playoffs into a young, cornerstone player for 2009 or 2010.

Falling out of contention may be a blessing in disguise if the return for Sabathia fills in one of those offensive holes that have plagued the team lately. There’s no way this team would trade Sabathia if it were still gunning for a playoff spot.

Below is my list of things I’d like to see happen now that Cleveland has raised the white flag and started taking entries for the C.C. Sweepstakes. I’ll go into more detail on a few of these later this week:

1.) Trade Sabathia

The trade winds blowing through Cleveland are practically a hurricane now. The two most convincing reports I’ve heard so far come out of Milwaukee and Los Angeles. Milwaukee appears to be the front runner out of the many teams supposedly scouting Sabathia this month. It sounds like the Tribe may get a stud prospect or two after all. I’m going to wait and see how the rumors play out, but look for a possible announcement from the team next week.

2.) Play Andy Marte for the rest of the season

I don’t care if it’s at DH or third base, Wedge needs to play Marte NOW. If Shapiro has to twist Wedge’s arm to make this happen, that’s just fine with me. Marte has no minor league options left and has accumulated a grand total of 164, 57, and 55 at-bats with Cleveland over the 2006-2008 seasons.

This is not a fair means of evaluation for any player, let alone a 24 year old that was considered one of the best prospects in the game not too long ago. Blake is not the future, but there’s a strong possibility Marte is. If the poor kid doesn’t get called off the bench soon, he may just go all Shawn Chacon on Wedgie.

3.) Get rid of Borowski

Borowski was designated for assignment today, since the team doesn’t have to pretend it needs him closing out games anymore. I appreciate the solid 45 save season he gave us last year, but his time with Cleveland should have ended well before now.

4.) Dump Dellucci

Please?

5.) Trade Casey Blake

Again, I appreciate the past contributions, but we’re not talking about Todd Helton or Ken Griffey here, this is the type of player that you trade when you’re out of contention. Consider Casey’s $6.1 mil expiring contract, age, and the fact that we have Andy Marte rotting on the bench and that’s reason enough to trade him in my opinion.

There are plenty of contending teams that could use a super-utility man like Blake and his value has likely peaked for this season. Blake posted an OPS of .670 and .691 for April and May, respectively. Unless you think he can sustain a .954 OPS on a .420 BAbip beyond the month of June (he can’t) I say trade him while might be of value.

6.) Hold tryouts for the 2009 closer position

I’ve said before that I think Jensen Lewis and Masahide Kobayashi are the strongest contenders for closer next year. This may be a bit tricky though, as both pitchers are having trouble adapting to their recent increase in innings and will need to be handled carefully.

Lewis pitched 81 innings between AA, AAA, and the Majors in 2007. The last time he threw that many innings in a season was 2006 when he was still a starter at Kinston. Kobayashi averaged just 48 IP over the last three years in the shortened, 144 game Pro Yakyu season. Kobayashi has already logged 41 innings for Cleveland so far.

7.) Give Hafner and Martinez as much time as they need to heal

It's pretty much a lock that we won't see these two suit up again until they're 100% healthy. As I've said before, I think having Hafner sit out this season to fix his weakened shoulder and any holes in his swing will greatly benefit the team in the long run. Ditto for Martinez, whose choice to play through intense pain was admirable, but it's time to get that elbow permanently healthy.

Reluctant Optimism

It’s difficult to tell if this team has hit rock bottom yet. A seven game losing streak seems like a pretty good benchmark for how bad things will get this season, but the Tribe continues to crash and burn every chance they get. The lack of offense continues to negate an excellent pitching staff and above average defense and it looks like Eric Wedge is starting to feel the pressure. Wedge has reverted to shuffling the lineup every night in an effort to bust the team’s slump. When nearly everyone on the roster has been dragging at the plate, I’m not sure swapping one .220 batting average for another will make much difference, but you can’t blame a guy for trying.

The aspect of Wedge’s job that I’m most curious about is how he has been working with individual players to stay motivated and work through the losing streak. This aspect of managing isn’t revealed in the box score, but is still a big part of a manager’s job performance. I suppose I’m making a borderline argument for Wedge’s “intangibles” in dealing with the problem at-hand, but there’s a reason he has had success in developing and coaching this group of players over the years. Fans are quick to forget this team won 96 games last year; in-game decisions aside, how much are you willing to blame Wedge for the current trends?

Wedge and his core players have been through tough times before and I have yet to hear anything negative about the clubhouse atmosphere or Wedge’s relationship with the team. Sure 2006 was disappointing, but if you blame the coaching staff for that failure you have to also give them credit for the ALCS appearance the following year. The situation Cleveland is in right now reminds me most of the 2005 season where the team caught fire in the second half and nearly stole the division title from Chicago. One could argue that the 2005 team was playing without pressure and ended up folding in the final week when it really mattered anyway.

While the 2008 squad is under pressure to win, they also have a substantial amount of experience in handling a pennant race compared to 2005. In addition to being more experienced, the pitching staff is at least as good as it was back then (Millwood won the ERA title and Wickman had 45 saves), while half the starting lineup consisted of such luminaries as Broussard, Belliard, Boone, and Crisp. Granted, Hafner was a beast back then, but considering we had a mediocre Nixon, Barfield, and a mediocre Hafner last year, you get the idea. Neither of the recent offenses has really been stacked with All-Stars, but have produced enough to hit 90+ wins.

Who’s to say this team won’t storm out of the gates after the All-Star Break and catch Chicago (if Chicago somehow stays in first place). I think if the Tribe can manage to tread water while they work through their slump and get a few games over .500 by July, they will still be in a strong position to win the division. My point in comparing Cleveland’s 2005 season to 2008 is to try and put the team’s struggles in perspective; this is nothing new. At the break in 2005, Cleveland sat 11 games back with a 47-41 record. They went 46-28 the rest of the season and finished with 93 wins.

This season, Chicago and to a greater extent Detroit, have both shown serious flaws and would be hard-pressed to withstand a strong run by Cleveland in the second-half. Team’s come back from the dead all the time and the Tribe still has 41 games before they even reach the All-Star Break. The 121 games played after July 15 make up nearly 75% of the season. Keep that number in mind next time you think Cleveland is toast already. Any one who thinks the offense will be this miserable for much longer is jumping the gun, in my opinion. I’ll go into more detail on a future post, but it appears highly unlikely that the core players have all been vastly over performing up to this point in their careers. The offense will snap out of it eventually because there is just no way the majority of the players will post a career-worst year, that’s nuts.

They may be just 2-4 in their last six games, but the offense has shown signs of progress lately. Against a weak Texas staff and Chicago's strong pitching, Cleveland averaged 5.16 runs per game. Better yet, they reached base about 13.5 times per game during that stretch. The trick is getting more of those runners to cross the plate, but the fact they're reaching base at all is encouraging. Hang in there Tribe fans, I think the team will move on from this mess soon enough.

Hafner Hurting

Apparently, Travis Hafner has been experiencing pain in his right shoulder since Spring Training. I knew Hafner had to sit out a game early in April because of the injury, but it sounds like his shoulder has been bothering him all season. Hafner received his second cortisone shot of the season to relieve the inflammation in his shoulder joint. Head Trainer Lonnie Soloff diagnosed the issue as an “irritated joint,” but said there was no structural damage to the shoulder.

This may explain why Hafner has had trouble keeping his approach at the plate consistent this year. Hafner bats left-handed, so the right shoulder would be the one closest to the pitcher. As someone with no medical training, the first impression I get is that the injury may be causing Hafner to compensate for the limited motion or pain in other aspects of his swing. Hafner said he has been trying to correct flaws in his swing lately, but I have no idea how many of those “flaws” have been injury related. Obviously, Hafner refused to acknowledge the shoulder as the reason for his poor performance, but I think this may be one piece of the puzzle behind the disappearance of Pronk. Any injury serious enough to warrant a trip to the disabled list must be hindering a player’s performance somehow. Hafner will likely see regular off-days until his shoulder is back to 100%.

Marte Sighting

In an effort to find a lineup with some chemistry, Wedge has finally acknowledged the existence of Andy Marte. It took a catastrophic failure on offense, but it looks like Marte will finally see some playing time as a starter. Despite hitting just .216 with a .642 OPS, third baseman Casey Blake has held an iron grip on the starting job to this point. A recent Castrovince article cites the team-wide slump and Hafner’s injury as the reasons for Marte’s opportunity. I guess having a young, high-ceiling third baseman on the bench and an aging starter batting .216 isn’t reason enough, but I don’t call the shots. Marte has appeared in just 13 games this season, compared to Blake’s 46 appearances. It’s kind of sad, but Marte has received so little playing time since Opening Day that Michael Aubrey (called up on May 17) already has 8 appearances to Marte’s 13.

The ideal scenario would see Marte getting regular playing time for the next several weeks, as Blake is not getting any better here. Heck, with the way the entire lineup is going right now, I’d even be happy with Marte starting the majority of games next month. It certainly can’t hurt at this point. At best, Andy gets into a groove and provides an offensive spark akin to Ben Francisco. At worst, Cleveland displaces a crappy bat from the lineup a few times a week with another, slightly better bat who may develop into a superior, full-time starter by the end of the season. Any experimentation with the lineups (I’d say four different DHs in as many games counts as an “experiment”) should definitely include Marte for the foreseeable future.

Pitching Shuffle

Cleveland made several changes to their pitching staff in response to players coming off the disabled list. Joe Borowski returned from the DL on 5/23, causing relief pitcher Craig Breslow to be designated for assignment. Breslow had been the pen’s lefty specialist, posting a 3.24 ERA and 1.4 K/BB rate over 8.3 IP. I was surprised that Breslow was cut outright, but if the team feels it has a better option there’s no point fussing over a waiver wire pickup.

The next day saw Jensen Lewis headed to Buffalo, Carmona to the DL, and Scott Elarton and Ed Mujica called to Cleveland. The team was concerned with a sudden drop in Lewis’ velocity and sent him down to rest up and work out any tweaks in his delivery. Lewis had thrown the most innings of any reliever at 27.7, so fatigue or prevention thereof may have factored into the decision. Elarton posted a 2.45 ERA and 2.5 K/BB rate in 25.2 IP as a reliever in Buffalo this season. Elarton may fill in for Breslow’s duties as a spot and long reliever. I don’t expect Mujica to appear in many high-leverage situations, as his numbers in Buffalo (4.15 ERA, 26 IP) and past experience don’t inspire much confidence. Shapiro must have seen some improvement in Mujica to call him up though, so he’s kind of a wait-and-see player right now.

Finally, Jake Westbrook’s return to the rotation saw Jorge Julio DFA’d. With the offense needing all the help it can get, it appears Michael Aubrey’s spot is safe for now (personally, I think he could be trade bait later on). Julio was pretty much a non-factor this season, except when he was busy blowing leads. In his short stint with the Tribe he gave up 11 ER over 17.7 IP, so adiós Jorge.

Opening Day: the Sequel and Fun with Rosters

It's Opening Day! Again.

It seems Major League Baseball decided to expand the (much deserved) hype of Opening Day for as long as possible. Technically, the season started last Tuesday when the Tokyo Red Sox faced off against the Oakland A's for two games. Was anyone else frightened by the sight of 50,000 Japanese Sox fans crammed into the Tokyo Dome? I guess if you put down $100 mil for a pitcher, it doesn't seem so bad knowing you just gained an entire country as a fan base. Either way, more Red Sox fans is not what this world needs. I'm curious how Boston's obvious lack of enthusiasm to represent MLB abroad by playing in Japan went over with the fans there. Yeah, real classy to publicly hold out for more monetary compensation Boston, it's not like you couldn't handle that in private. But I digress....

Opening Day Part II is on Sunday, but only features one game. I know it's a historic event, with the Nats kicking off the season in their brand-new, uber-cool stadium, but the schedule makers couldn't find room for the rest of the teams to play? I wish the regular season would start all at once or at least split the games over a couple days, preferably on the weekend. Many fans treat Opening Day with such reverence that it might as well be a national holiday. Just think of all the marketing and media coverage that goes into the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament; now imagine that same frenzy over two full days of baseball games. I doubt anything like that is going to happen, but there's plenty of money to be made if MLB were to play its cards right.

The Tribe starts their defense of the Central Division crown on Monday against Chicago. Unfortunately, we didn't make the national broadcast that day, but that doesn't mean Tribe fans can't enjoy the first of 50 games ESPN has set for the Yankees this season! That Steinbrenner kid is such a character, I can't wait to hear what he'll say next. I bet A-Rod hits for the cycle twice in that game. Hello? Where'd everybody go?

Marte In

Andy Marte became one of the final players to make the Tribe's 25-man roster earlier this week. He will join Jamey Carroll, David Dellucci, and Kelly Shoppach on the bench. According to Manager Eric Wedge:

We'll see Andy mixed in at third base when we give Casey a day off. I think we'd be comfortable putting him [at first] if we needed him over there.

Backup third baseman is obviously the best fit for Marte this season, but how much playing time can he expect behind Blake? Last season, Blake had 145 appearances at 3b, 12 at 1b, 7 in RF, and 1 as DH. It's doubtful Blake will see any significant time in the outfield with Gutz, Dellucci, and Michaels already on the roster and Francisco and Choo waiting in the wings. Assuming Blake remains relatively healthy, that would mean Marte would get just 17 appearances at third; not a realistic number. If Marte were to start once a week at third (similar to the rotation of Martinez and Shoppach at catcher), that would translate to roughly 30 starts, or 120 at-bats.

I agree that the starting third base job is Blake's to lose and he has done nothing to merit a demotion. This puts Wedge in a tricky situation when dealing with Marte though. The Indians really need to find creative ways to get Marte up to the plate on a regular basis. Marte has had several cups of coffee at the major league level, but never a large sample of at-bats in a single season. Below are Marte's previous appearances in the majors:

Year	Age	Team	PA	H	HR	SB	BB	SO	OBP	SLG
2005	21	ATL	66	8	0	0	7	13	.227	.211
2006	22	CLE	178	37	5	0	13	38	.287	.421
2007	23	CLE	60	11	1	0	2	9	.233	.316

There are two things that stand out in Marte's old stat lines. The first is how few plate appearances he's had. Marte was supposed to start 2007 on the roster, but an injury and the steady play of Blake left him stranded in Buffalo. Considering Blake had 662 PA in 156 games last season, Marte has not been given a legitimate chance to prove himself yet. The second item of interest is Marte's age. He may have been an elite prospect in Atlanta, but how many 22 year olds are capable of making an immediately successful transition from the minors? Not many. Marte also has a reputation as a slow starter. It seems every time he starts to settle in somewhere, he gets moved, resetting his progress.

There is some uncertainty with Marte, like his inconsistent defense and what he'll really do at the plate if given the chance. Marte helped his cause by posting a .333 OBP, .519 SLG, and 5 HR in 54 AB in spring training. Unfortunately, he also committed 6 errors at third. If Cleveland sees any substantial value in Marte for the future they will have to perform their final evaluation on the fly this season. With no minor league options left, Marte may be off the team by 2009 if the Tribe doesn't like what it sees in 2008.

Francisco and Barfield Out

Josh Barfield and Ben Francisco will be starting the season in AAA. I agree with the Barfield move, but Francisco really should be in Cleveland this year. If there was a better platoon alternative than Dellucci in left field I could understand, but sending Ben back to Buffalo is a waste of everyone's time. Francisco had 12 HR, 22 SB, a .382 OBP, and a .496 SLG and won the International League MVP in Buffalo last season. There's nothing left for him to prove in the minors, especially at 25 years old. Lets take a quick look at stats for Michaels, Dellucci, and Francisco for 2007:

Player	PA	H	HR	BB	SB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS+
J. Michaels	295	72	7	20	3	50	.324	.397	87
D. Dellucci	199	41	4	17	2	40	.296	.382	76
B. Francisco	66	17	3	3	0	19	.303	.500	105

Not to jump to conclusions due to the small sample size, but Francisco clearly outplayed Dellucci during his stint in Cleveland. Francisco's .814 career OPS against righties also fits in nicely with Michaels' career OPS of .842 against lefties. Dellucci may not even be 100% healthy this season (he had surgery last year to repair a torn hamstring). His salary would be easy to dump and after putting up with the Trot Nixon experiment last year, I'm not sure Dellucci has really earned a spot on the roster. If his veteran status and $3.75 million contract are the main reasons for him making the roster, that hardly seems fair. Not giving Dellucci a chance to defend his job after an injury-filled season is no way to treat a player either, so maybe I'm being a bit harsh. Regardless of salary, I can't see Dellucci getting much leeway this season with two viable alternatives in Francisco and (later on) Choo. I predict a mid-season call up for one of the two young outfielders.

There's really not much to say about Barfield. I had a hunch he would at least start the season in Buffalo, which is good because his offense has been terrible since arriving in Cleveland. Josh had a .270 OBP and .324 SLG in 444 PA for 2007 (no, that OBP isn't a typo). The good news is, Barfield still has an above average glove and has just two full years of major league experience. If he can find his swing again in AAA, Josh will certainly be in the running for the 2009 starting infield. The bad news is, it will take a mammoth effort in AAA from Barfield and an abysmal start from Asdrubal to dislodge him from second base. I'm rooting for him, but don't expect to see much of Barfield this season.

Finally...

I haven't had much time to investigate Fultz's replacement, Craig Breslow, but that's what the internet is for. Jay over at LGT has a nice breakdown of Fultz's departure, while the community chimes in on Breslow. Good stuff.