Opening Day: the Sequel and Fun with Rosters

It's Opening Day! Again.

It seems Major League Baseball decided to expand the (much deserved) hype of Opening Day for as long as possible. Technically, the season started last Tuesday when the Tokyo Red Sox faced off against the Oakland A's for two games. Was anyone else frightened by the sight of 50,000 Japanese Sox fans crammed into the Tokyo Dome? I guess if you put down $100 mil for a pitcher, it doesn't seem so bad knowing you just gained an entire country as a fan base. Either way, more Red Sox fans is not what this world needs. I'm curious how Boston's obvious lack of enthusiasm to represent MLB abroad by playing in Japan went over with the fans there. Yeah, real classy to publicly hold out for more monetary compensation Boston, it's not like you couldn't handle that in private. But I digress....

Opening Day Part II is on Sunday, but only features one game. I know it's a historic event, with the Nats kicking off the season in their brand-new, uber-cool stadium, but the schedule makers couldn't find room for the rest of the teams to play? I wish the regular season would start all at once or at least split the games over a couple days, preferably on the weekend. Many fans treat Opening Day with such reverence that it might as well be a national holiday. Just think of all the marketing and media coverage that goes into the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament; now imagine that same frenzy over two full days of baseball games. I doubt anything like that is going to happen, but there's plenty of money to be made if MLB were to play its cards right.

The Tribe starts their defense of the Central Division crown on Monday against Chicago. Unfortunately, we didn't make the national broadcast that day, but that doesn't mean Tribe fans can't enjoy the first of 50 games ESPN has set for the Yankees this season! That Steinbrenner kid is such a character, I can't wait to hear what he'll say next. I bet A-Rod hits for the cycle twice in that game. Hello? Where'd everybody go?

Marte In

Andy Marte became one of the final players to make the Tribe's 25-man roster earlier this week. He will join Jamey Carroll, David Dellucci, and Kelly Shoppach on the bench. According to Manager Eric Wedge:

We'll see Andy mixed in at third base when we give Casey a day off. I think we'd be comfortable putting him [at first] if we needed him over there.

Backup third baseman is obviously the best fit for Marte this season, but how much playing time can he expect behind Blake? Last season, Blake had 145 appearances at 3b, 12 at 1b, 7 in RF, and 1 as DH. It's doubtful Blake will see any significant time in the outfield with Gutz, Dellucci, and Michaels already on the roster and Francisco and Choo waiting in the wings. Assuming Blake remains relatively healthy, that would mean Marte would get just 17 appearances at third; not a realistic number. If Marte were to start once a week at third (similar to the rotation of Martinez and Shoppach at catcher), that would translate to roughly 30 starts, or 120 at-bats.

I agree that the starting third base job is Blake's to lose and he has done nothing to merit a demotion. This puts Wedge in a tricky situation when dealing with Marte though. The Indians really need to find creative ways to get Marte up to the plate on a regular basis. Marte has had several cups of coffee at the major league level, but never a large sample of at-bats in a single season. Below are Marte's previous appearances in the majors:

Year	Age	Team	PA	H	HR	SB	BB	SO	OBP	SLG
2005	21	ATL	66	8	0	0	7	13	.227	.211
2006	22	CLE	178	37	5	0	13	38	.287	.421
2007	23	CLE	60	11	1	0	2	9	.233	.316

There are two things that stand out in Marte's old stat lines. The first is how few plate appearances he's had. Marte was supposed to start 2007 on the roster, but an injury and the steady play of Blake left him stranded in Buffalo. Considering Blake had 662 PA in 156 games last season, Marte has not been given a legitimate chance to prove himself yet. The second item of interest is Marte's age. He may have been an elite prospect in Atlanta, but how many 22 year olds are capable of making an immediately successful transition from the minors? Not many. Marte also has a reputation as a slow starter. It seems every time he starts to settle in somewhere, he gets moved, resetting his progress.

There is some uncertainty with Marte, like his inconsistent defense and what he'll really do at the plate if given the chance. Marte helped his cause by posting a .333 OBP, .519 SLG, and 5 HR in 54 AB in spring training. Unfortunately, he also committed 6 errors at third. If Cleveland sees any substantial value in Marte for the future they will have to perform their final evaluation on the fly this season. With no minor league options left, Marte may be off the team by 2009 if the Tribe doesn't like what it sees in 2008.

Francisco and Barfield Out

Josh Barfield and Ben Francisco will be starting the season in AAA. I agree with the Barfield move, but Francisco really should be in Cleveland this year. If there was a better platoon alternative than Dellucci in left field I could understand, but sending Ben back to Buffalo is a waste of everyone's time. Francisco had 12 HR, 22 SB, a .382 OBP, and a .496 SLG and won the International League MVP in Buffalo last season. There's nothing left for him to prove in the minors, especially at 25 years old. Lets take a quick look at stats for Michaels, Dellucci, and Francisco for 2007:

Player	PA	H	HR	BB	SB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS+
J. Michaels	295	72	7	20	3	50	.324	.397	87
D. Dellucci	199	41	4	17	2	40	.296	.382	76
B. Francisco	66	17	3	3	0	19	.303	.500	105

Not to jump to conclusions due to the small sample size, but Francisco clearly outplayed Dellucci during his stint in Cleveland. Francisco's .814 career OPS against righties also fits in nicely with Michaels' career OPS of .842 against lefties. Dellucci may not even be 100% healthy this season (he had surgery last year to repair a torn hamstring). His salary would be easy to dump and after putting up with the Trot Nixon experiment last year, I'm not sure Dellucci has really earned a spot on the roster. If his veteran status and $3.75 million contract are the main reasons for him making the roster, that hardly seems fair. Not giving Dellucci a chance to defend his job after an injury-filled season is no way to treat a player either, so maybe I'm being a bit harsh. Regardless of salary, I can't see Dellucci getting much leeway this season with two viable alternatives in Francisco and (later on) Choo. I predict a mid-season call up for one of the two young outfielders.

There's really not much to say about Barfield. I had a hunch he would at least start the season in Buffalo, which is good because his offense has been terrible since arriving in Cleveland. Josh had a .270 OBP and .324 SLG in 444 PA for 2007 (no, that OBP isn't a typo). The good news is, Barfield still has an above average glove and has just two full years of major league experience. If he can find his swing again in AAA, Josh will certainly be in the running for the 2009 starting infield. The bad news is, it will take a mammoth effort in AAA from Barfield and an abysmal start from Asdrubal to dislodge him from second base. I'm rooting for him, but don't expect to see much of Barfield this season.

Finally...

I haven't had much time to investigate Fultz's replacement, Craig Breslow, but that's what the internet is for. Jay over at LGT has a nice breakdown of Fultz's departure, while the community chimes in on Breslow. Good stuff.

Locked In

Javier Vazquez became the latest pitcher left in Cleveland's wake, as his team lost 7-0 on Saturday. The Tribe pushed their winning streak to 8 in a row behind one of Paul Byrd's finest starts of the season. Byrd held the Pale Hose to 4 hits over 9 innings for the 16th complete game and 6th shutout of his career. Byrd has built a 15-5 record this year behind a consistent approach, very few walks (23), and generous run support. Casey Blake continued his recent hot streak with a pair of hits and RBI. Blake has had two hits in 5 of his last 7 games. Shoppach and Pronk contributed two more RBI, with Gutz rounding out the score with his 10th homerun of the season.

The Tribe has scored at least 5 runs in 7 of its last 8 games and is sporting a .476 batting average with 2 outs and RISP six games into their current homestand. The last time Cleveland won 8 games in a row was June 2005.

Looking ahead, Cleveland has 27 games remaining after Saturday's ChiSox game. The majority of those games will be on the road (17) and 14 will be against teams with a winning record. The combined win percentage of their September opposition is .505. Key series against Anaheim (4 games), Detroit (3 games), and Seattle (4 games) make up 40% of their remaining schedule, so this is arguably one of the most difficult stretches the Tribe has faced so far. Fortunately for Cleveland, they've gotten hot at the perfect time. With a 5.5 game buffer over Detroit and a renewed confidence and focus, Cleveland won't be backing down this time around. Lets go, Tribe.

On Opportunities

Gutierrez is averaging a homerun every 19 at-bats with a solid .838 OPS. The rookie outfielder seems to have shaken his former platoon role, with Nixon relegated to the bench for most of August. Nixon has only started in 2 of the teams last 12 games, despite an .813 OPS in June (his best month by far). It's possible Wedge is resting Nixon to parlay any late-season fatigue, but it's more likely Wedge was waiting on Gutz to prove he deserved more than just a platoon role. While he may struggle against righties (.743 OPS), he mashes lefties (.920 OPS) and features outstanding range and a cannon for an arm. Judging by the way he's stuck around in a crowded outfield this season and the recent surge in playing time, the starting right field job is Frankie's to lose.

Another rookie who has gotten an extended starting gig this month is shortstop turned secondbaseman Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera was initially promoted as a possible utility infielder, but with Chris Gomez holding his own in that role, Cabrera was given a few starts at second in place of the offensively challenged Barfield....and never left. I was all ready to break down Cabrera's stats so far, but hadn't realized until now just how small his sample size really is. Anybody else feel like AstroCab has had more than 66 ABs and 15 starts? When a player's batting average drops 30 points in the span of two games, it might be a bit early to pass judgement on him just yet.

It's interesting that both of the Tribe's young secondbasemen have a strong tendency to not earn walks. Cabrera only has a .329 OBP and just 2 BB. Whether or not the rookie can maintain a respectable OBP through a high number of hits remains to be seen, but he has shown decent power for a middle infielder with a .485 SLG and 2 HR.

It's been a pretty crazy season so far, but watching AstroCab play has probably been one of the highlights. He's the most exciting defender outside of Sizemore and Barfield and it's always fun to see the type of flat-out effort the younger guys bring each game.

Barfield has had approximately 3 starts since August 11, with Cabrera pinch-hitting for him in two of those games. I could see the reduction in playing time to work on his offense, but the fact that he isn't even allowed 4 plate appearances in those games indicates he still has a long way to go before he regains the manager's trust. It's encouraging to see him in the starting lineup again though, if only in a minor role. J-Barf's future with the team is still bright, but his role this season is a little fuzzy.

On Perspective

Baseball has a tendency to make it's fans look foolish. Raise your hand if you were seriously wondering if the Tribe's offense was ever going to get back on track this season. If this were an actual demonstration and not just a column cliché, there would probably be quite a few hands in the air. Amid cries of doom and "we don't deserve first place" and inquiries about football season, the team slowly, but surely, dragged itself out of the mud. First a few series wins, then a winning record on the month, the second half, and suddenly, with 8 straight wins and a 5.5 game division lead in hand, all is forgiven. Baseball is weird like that.

Random Musings

I was watching Twinkie Scott Baker go for a perfect game in the 9th inning the other night against Kansas City. Unfortunately, he lost the perfect game with a leadoff walk and then gave up a single to pinch-hitter Mike Sweeney with two outs to go. Before each of the above events transpired, the Minnesota announcer had the audacity to utter the words "perfect" and "no-hitter" at least five times. I found myself shouting at the game feed over just how idiotic it is to speak these words during a perfect game, especially if the pitcher's on your own team. If I were in that booth with them and heard them say that, I probably would have ripped off my headset and hit him with a flying tackle. Isn't that what the interns are for, to prevent blasphemous and jinxing remarks by moron announcers? What is wrong with people, seriously.

A fan at the Jake had a sign that read "Datz Awesome" (after bench coach Jeff Datz) the other night. Good stuff.

As if Shoppach couldn't get any grittier, he is now the proud owner of a Jason Varitek goatee.

White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen on the performance of his bullpen this season:

It's the same thing every day. It's like your kid is 2 years old and he likes Barney. And you put that little [expletive] down there for three hours watching that [expletive] back and forth, back and forth, the same song for six hours. That's what I've been doing since April. Same [expletive] thing. Rewind it. 'You OK? Yeah, OK, here's your bottle, keep watching Barney'.

A few games after that quote came out, that same little [expletive] coughed up 6 runs to Cleveland in the 8th inning for the loss.













This one's for you Ozzie.

4.5

Blogging and the first week of classes definitely don't get along very well; might have to hire a secretary or something. On to the Tribe...

Get happy Tribe fans.

Cleveland swept the Twinkies in style Wednesday by becoming the only team in the history of the universe to hand Johan Santana three losses in a season, going 3-1 in four meetings against the lefty. C.C. Sabathia was finally awarded his 15th win of the season after suffering from poor run support in his last four tries. Asdrubal Cabrera started off the Tribe's 4-run first inning with a 2-run uppercut blast over the mini-monster in left field. Victor, Gutz, and Lofton homered, doubled, and singled off Santana to score the other two runs. The Tribe's offense collected 10 hits on the night (only Hafner and Blake failed to reach base), although Santana was able to prevent any further scoring.

Cleveland dominated the Twins during the three game series, scoring 18 runs with a team ERA of 3.67. Minnesota never held a lead over the 27 innings played. Minnesota marks the Tribe's fourth straight series win, plus a two game split with Detroit.

On July 31, the team had a 60-46 record and trailed Detroit by a game, but Cleveland has quietly built a winning record in August. By going 15-11 this month (with two games remaining), the Tribe has pushed their second half record back over .500 at 23-20.

The Tribe's offense has been running on all cylinders since their 11-8 win over Detroit, averaging 5.87 runs per game. Add that to an already white hot pitching staff (3.31 ERA in August) and you're looking at a serious momentum shift in Cleveland.

I think the combination of getting demolished by the Yanks and having to go into Detroit a half game down really woke this team up. It's almost like lighting struck, but that Detroit series in the middle of the month seems to be the where the Tribe started to play with the fire and focus that had the rest of the league sweating the first two months of the season.

It might just be a coincidence, but AstroCab did make his major league debut a week before the team really took off again. Hmmm... More on #13 in my next post.

Meanwhile, Detroit has continued to free-fall and now sits 4.5 games back with only three head-to-head games remaining with Cleveland. The Tigers pitching continued to get battered this week as they lost their latest series to the dangerous Kansas City Royals. K.C. actually has a better second half record (20-22) than Detroit (19-27) and has posted a winning record the past two months.

Finally...

It's the end of an era in Cleveland. Once Kansas City finishes its overhaul of Kauffman Stadium in 2009, Cleveland will lose the title of Largest Freestanding Scoreboard in the United States. KC's trademark crest scoreboard will be remodeled as a video screen, beating out the Jake's 149 by 36 foot A/V monolith. Losing the Jake's claim to fame to a division rival just doesn't seem right. I think Dolan should take some of that free agent money Shapiro is selfishly hoarding away and blow it all on an even bigger scoreboard. That'll show KC who runs the Central. What else do Cleveland fans have to brag about? Wait, we're still in first place? Oh. Well, nevermind then.

Signs of Life

The Tribe took another positive step in breaking free of their offensive slump by crushing Tampa 8-2 on Saturday. Asdrubal "Astrocab" Cabrera hit his first career homerun off of Jason Hammel with two on in the 2nd inning to get things started. Cabrera turned on a ball inside, about belt-high, launching it to right-center field. The Tribe never surrendered the lead after that, as Jake Westbrook produced another quality outing for his fourth win of the year.

Westbrook has been a man possessed in his last 5 starts, going 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA. I've sung the praises of Westbrook many a time on this blog, but his contributions can not be understated. Jake has elevated his game to resume his role as the team's third starter and has been a model of consistency during a stretch where the offense has been consistently bad.

Jake is dishing out some of the best baseball of his career at exactly the right time, making for one nasty 1-2-3 lineup with C.C., Carmona, and Westbrook. Cleveland's rotation was serviceable without Westbrook at 100%, but is starting to look more and more like a playoff caliber staff.

The offensive outburst was a refreshing change of pace after seeing the team struggle against Edwin Jackson (again) last night. I'm convinced the offense is heading in the right direction, but they still seem to have one foot mired in the slump. The most recent example can be cited from the first two Tampa Bay games.

Cleveland's approach against Jackson was terrible; he has a history of control problems and his last start was no different. Rather than force Jackson to make his pitches and throw strikes (he walked 5 over 6 IP), batters chose to swing early in the count (sometimes at the first pitch) leading to an easy ground-out or pop-up with runners in scoring position.

So despite accumulating 17 baserunners (12 H, 5 BB) on Friday, only 2 of those runners crossed homeplate; about 12% of their total runners. You could argue that Jackson really isn't that bad and has fooled the Tribe before, but the most frustrating part for me is the failure of the batters to adjust their approach and capitalize on more of their scoring opportunities. Byrd should not have had to hold Tampa Bay to one run in order to win that game.

Performances like these remind me that the offense still isn't quite right. Until the team can consistently cash in on the many opportunities the offense creates, they'll have a hard time holding on to their meager lead.

On the bright side, Cleveland showed no mercy against Tampa's pitching staff tonight, scoring 47% of their 17 baserunners. The 1-9 approach was in full force tonight, with every starter getting at least one hit. After extending their longest winning streak since the All Star Break to 3 games, the true test will be if the offense can show up for a second straight game to support their oft-neglected ace.

While Detroit is tied up with 8 games against the Yankees, Cleveland gets to play Tampa Bay and Kansas City for 6 games. Even I think playing the Yankees that many times in two weeks is excessive, but I guess that's just payback for all the trouble those snowed-out games have caused for Cleveland. With all the motivational soundbites floating around the post-game interviews lately, now is the time to act.

In the midst of a modest 3 game win streak, the Tribe has already regained the division lead they had before their last series against New York. Oh, the irony.

On Astrocab

It's way too early to make any sweeping proclamations on the recently promoted Astrocab (see Francisco, Ben), but you can already see his potential as a major leaguer. Asdrubal appears to be more patient at the plate than Barfield, or at least more selective with his pitches. The microscopic sample size for Cabrera shows 3.1 pitches per plate appearance, compared to Barfield's 3.7 P/PA. Asdrubal's power also comes as-advertised, with 3 of his 5 hits going for extra bases. The aspect of Asdrubal's game that has me wowed is his defense. This kid's glove is every bit as slick as Barfield's, maybe better.

Cabrera has started at secondbase for three consecutive games now, which has to be troublesome to Barfield. I think as long as Cabrera keeps contributing on offense, he'll get the nod over Barfield at second. I'm certainly not calling for Barfield to be replaced, but I would like to see him fix the holes in his approach at the plate before he returns as the team's regular secondbaseman. Even though I'm a fan of Cabrera, I still don't see him starting 2008 with Cleveland.

If he is successful the remainder of this season, it will certainly put pressure on the Front Office to play him, but the fact that Andy Marte is out of options next year is going to be a key roster issue for 2008. Cabrera is still very young and has many option years left, so while his playing in AAA all year may seem unfair (depending on how he does this season), the Tribe can't just dump Marte without giving him a legitimate shot at success in the Majors. I'll go into more detail on the 2008 infield in a future post.

Two in a Row....

How do you follow up a complete game shutout? Well, at the rate the Tribe has been going, a win would have been sufficient. Jake Westbrook had other plans though, dumping a cooler of Haterade all over the red-hot Chi Sox on Tuesday. Jake allowed just 2 baserunners all night, giving up a run in the first. He struck out 5 over 8 IP and walked none. Tonight marks the third straight start Westbrook has gone at least 6 innings and held the opposition to 2 runs or less. Below are Westbrook's splits for his last three starts:

Opponent	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	GB-FB Outs
Minnesota	7	4	3	3	--	--	11-7
Texas	6	5	1	5	--	--	6-7
Chicago	8	2	0	5	--	--	13-6
Total					1.29	.71

I've been waiting on Westbrook to get back in business all season and I think he's finally recovered from his trip to the DL. Some may argue that he's been healthy since late June, but that is not necessarily true. When Westbrook came off the DL, he had to work his way back into his usual routine and re-adjust to facing major league hitters. Everybody needs consistent practice to stay on top of their game, even professional athletes (especially MLB pitchers). One of Westbrook's main issues was finding the touch needed to use his sinkerball effectively; his renewed confidence in the sinker is a big part of his current success.

The most significant indicator that Jake has found his groove is his consistency. Before the three starts listed above, Jake had trouble posting two quality starts in a row and visibly struggled with his command. It took a while, but the old Westbrook is back.

It's still too early to make the call on Laffey, but in my opinion, the Indians have a playoff caliber starting rotation right now. The starters have posted a 2.51 ERA over the last 14 games and have shown no signs of slowing down (that even includes Sleepy Kitten's 7 run implosion against Boston). When the offense wakes up (you know it will, don't kid yourself) Cleveland is going to be a pretty scary playoff contender. I've always endorsed the old saying "good pitching beats good hitting" and Cleveland is in a position to have both going into August and September.

I'd also like to give a shout-out to the Cobra for his continued awesomeness (9 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 K at Minnesota), way to go Paul.

On the Offense

If I was qualified and had the time, I'd love to analyze video from the Tribe's prolonged offensive slump to see where they've gone wrong. Since I am neither qualified, nor unemployed, I'll just have to wing it (ie. this a pretty subjective analysis based on what I've seen). I'm probably seeing the same thing as most fans in that the Tribe hitters have been pressing. This problem is only magnified when the opposing pitcher has just average pitches and a track record to match.

Patience and focus seem to go out the window during a bad slump like this, giving way to the feeling that each player needs to make a big play, when in fact, no one can because they're too stressed out to think straight. Bad pitches tend to look a lot better when you're desperate for a hit, allowing even mediocre pitchers to "elevate" their game. If you don't buckle down and challenge a pitcher (make him throw strikes, throw more pitches per AB, make that perfect pitch for a K, etc.) then even some AAAA kid can look like an ace.

Tonight's game against Chicago and John Danks was a good example of the two approaches. Danks has been pretty crappy this season, but managed to hold the Tribe hitless through 4 innings. This scenario has been played out several times during the slump. So the 5th inning roles around, no score, no hits. Danks has been making guys like Hafner and Garko look stupid with a pretty tame slider, he's cruising. Then the Tribe manages to get three quality at-bats from Peralta, Michaels, and Sizemore. Hallelujah, 2 runs score! Why?

Well, to start with, the hitters looked relaxed. They'd seen Danks twice before and knew what to expect. They waited for their pitch and made the pitcher try to beat them. They didn't flail at ugly pitches that no one could hit anyway, but adjusted to what was thrown their way. Michaels and Sizemore shortened up their swings considerably and were rewarded with a double and RBI single, respectively. Not a huge inning numerically, but a big inning for the players' confidence. In three ABs, they broke up the no-hitter, forced the pitcher to throw the most pitches he'd thrown all game in an inning (was at 80 by then), and gave Jake the lead. Up until that inning, a lot of players were trying to club the ball over the fence each time, but all they got were some long fly balls.

If the Tribe would just try and settle for a single more often, they'd extend their ABs per inning, resulting in more runs scored than just hitting for flat-out power all the time. A more scientific comparison of the two approaches has probably been done, but the bottom line is that Cleveland consistently tries to do too much with each AB. If there's a guy on second, do you really have to jack one into the bleachers or even off the wall? Uh, no. Singles are your friend with RISP (Note: yeah, I know it takes a double to get Pronk or Vic home from second, but you get the point).

I'm always hesitant to blame anyone specifically when it comes to a hitters failure to break out of an extended slump, since I have no actual experience playing or coaching. These guys know how to hit consistently, otherwise they wouldn't be in the majors (obviously), but it makes you wonder what the problem is, be it lack of confidence, team chemistry, or poor coaching. It's good to keep in mind that the same hitting coach who is at the center of the slump, was also there before the slump (5th in MLB in runs scored). I'd probably blame the hitting coach or the manager before anyone else though. Like I said, the hitters have the ability, but need help getting past the mental roadblocks that accompany such a brutal season.

AstroCab Called Up

Asdrubal Cabrera was called up from AAA Buffalo on Tuesday after Mike Rouse was designated for assignment. Rouse was the definition of disposable this season, but Cabrera getting called up in his place provides some interesting possibilities. Odds are, if you're not a hardcore fan or minor league aficionado, you haven't heard of Asdrubal since the Eduardo Perez trade. AstroCab had made great strides offensively in AAA and AA before getting the call and is a wizard defensively. He is a natural shortstop, but saw a few starts at secondbase this season. I'll break down how the new arrival fits into the roster once I see how Wedge uses him, but I have a hunch Barfield is the one who will be affected the most by the promotion.