Showing posts with label Lofton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lofton. Show all posts

Friday, October 19, 2007

Disappointment

I don't blame C.C. Sabathia for Game 5.

Sabathia made vast improvements since Game 1 of the ALCS where he walked 5 and gave up 8 runs in 4.1 innings. There's really no comparison between the two starts, which is good news for Cleveland.

In Game 5, C.C. gave up 4 ER, 10 H, and a HR over 6 IP. The most important stat of the night was the fact he only surrendered 2 walks, while throwing 62.5% of his pitches for strikes. Again, this is a near complete turnaround from 5 walks and 51.7% pitches for strikes in his last start. Throw in 6 strikeouts and you have a solid bounce-back start for the Tribe's ace. Not great, but certainly winnable.

As encouraging as Sabathia’s Game 5 seems on the surface, the numbers lie a little bit. Sabathia's more aggressive approach (more strikes, less nibbling) resulted in less walks, but his stuff was far from dominant. Instead, he gave up 10 hits and allowed at least one baserunner in every inning except the 6th. He also hit two batters and threw a wild pitch. C.C. walked a thin line all night, owing a saved run to Gutz in the 1st, narrowly avoiding an additional run from Ramirez's "single" in the 3rd, and escaping from a bases loaded jam in the 5th.

Like a Joe Borowski save, the bottom line is what matters most. C.C. got the job done tonight by giving his team a chance to win.

I’m still on the fence as to whether Wedge should have brought Sabathia back out for the 7th inning. Wedge had to have known he was playing with fire by having Sabathia face the top of Boston’s lineup again. The 7th would have been C.C.’s fourth time facing Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ortiz. Based on the lead-off double and triple from said batters, Sabathia wasn’t fooling anyone. At 106 stress-filled pitches, Sabathia probably didn’t have much left in the tank and may have been struggling with his focus.

I understand why Wedge stuck with C.C., but it was still a very risky decision. Wedge said if he had pulled C.C. after six, Betancourt would have had to pitch two innings and the remaining reliever matchups would have been difficult to deal with; these were things Wedge did not think benefited the team in the long run. Wedge also cited Sabathia was having his best start of the playoffs and didn’t want to hamper his rhythm or confidence. He felt Sabathia could handle the large pitch count, citing past starts where he threw 120 pitches.

I emphasized Wedge’s long term mentality to the situation because I feel it’s important in understanding his decision. The team has been riding Betancourt the entire postseason. Betancourt leads the regular relievers with 6.1 innings pitched and has appeared in four of the five ALCS games. Jensen Lewis is not far behind with 5.1 IP. This may not seem like much, but you have to rest these guys at some point. Many people will point to the two off-days dividing the series as enough rest, but Wedge knows how his pitchers feel better than we do. I think some of the bullpen guys are feeling a little drained, otherwise Wedge would not have expressed concern when citing his reasons for sticking with Sabathia.

Wedge did not concede the game in the 7th inning; he took a calculated risk that backfired. Further proof of this is Betancourt having to pitch anyway in an attempt to preserve the 3-1 deficit Sabathia left behind.

Despite my dwelling on Wedge and C.C., Beckett’s performance was the real story of Game 5. If any other Boston starter was on the mound tonight, I think Cleveland would have won this game.

Wedge cited a lack of adjustment by his players as a contributing factor. It’s good to hear the manager get in the players’ ear a bit. Wedge’s analysis makes sense, as the Tribe started strong against Beckett. Cleveland had three hits and a run against Beckett in the first inning, but managed only two hits and a walk the rest of the night. I realize Beckett was pounding the strike zone and threw all kinds of filth, but Cleveland drew first blood early on and failed to counter Beckett’s game. Obviously this is easier said than done as no one has touched Beckett all post-season, but given the infrequency of overtly negative comments from Wedge, I think the criticism holds some water.

The offense can not allow Schilling to fall into a similar rhythm in Game 6.

On Lofton

Did anyone else want to see Lofton KO Beckett cold? I really, really wanted to see Beckett leave with a bloody nose after screaming at Lofton while he jogged to first after a pop-up. Yeah, I know Lofton would have faced a suspension for the rest of the series, but the mental image of the Mayor of Cleveland slamming Beckett the Blister with a left hook combo is just awesome.

Fortunately, Lofton is too classy to take a swing at another player, even if that player is a preening prima donna who thinks he’s God’s gift to baseball. Seriously, Beckett has become the A-Rod of pitching. Aren’t there enough smug, blowhards in the AL East? That division is like a personality roach-motel. It’s too bad Albert Belle wasn’t the one jogging to first, because that would have been entertaining.

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Lofton in Left

There hasn’t been much news out of Cleveland since the Lofton trade. Shapiro made it clear in a recent interview that the front office is still pursuing a final late-inning reliever. As usual, no details have leaked as to which pitcher the Tribe is pursuing. All teams have until 4pm Tuesday (7/31) to finalize any waiver-free trades, so fans will know soon enough if we got any help for Borowski and the Raffys.

The Indians have been repeatedly linked with Troy Percival of St. Louis. Percival has been effective in his comeback effort and may have become expendable as the Cards continue to struggle this year. It’s no secret that Eric Gagne is being dangled by Texas, but Cleveland is rumored to be out of the running for the former ace closer as the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox move in on the hefty price tag. Other relievers on the market include Joaquin Benoit of Texas and Al Reyes of Tampa. Percival, Benoit, and Reyes would be well suited to 8th inning duties, although it is unclear what Reyes’ feelings on closing are. Percival appears to be the cheapest of the three, given the (omnipresent) holes in Tampa’s roster and Texas going into full-blown rebuilding mode.

Lofton’s Role

Here’s an update of how the outfield platoon is performing for the 2007 season:

Lofton - Bats: L

Split G AB BA OBP SLG OPS
vs. L 42 69 .217 .300 .261 .561
vs. R 87 258 .329 .402 .485 .887

Gutierrez - Bats R

Split G AB BA OBP SLG OPS
vs. L 24 53 .340 .364 .604 .967
vs. R 41 55 .255 .311 .455 .766

Michaels - Bats R

Split G AB BA OBP SLG OPS
vs. L 45 99 .293 .363 .455 .817
vs. R 63 96 .250 .280 .375 .655

Nixon - Bats L

Split G AB BA OBP SLG OPS
vs. L 34 46 .217 .283 .283 .566
vs. R 81 215 .260 .363 .363 .725


Lofton fits in nicely with the existing platoon situation in the outfield corners. Lofton could technically platoon with either Gutierrez or Michaels, but will likely patrol left field with J-Mike. Gutierrez and Michaels each have a near even split between at-bats versus lefties and righties this season. Both bat right handed and perform significantly better against left handed pitchers as a result (there’s a shocker). Gutz has a cannon for an arm and is well-suited to right. He can continue to be spotted by Nixon, who has played all of his games in right field this year.

Michaels is forecast to lose some playing time, but should still start every game against left handed pitching; Lofton has been brutal against lefties this year, batting .217 with a .561 OPS (69 AB is a borderline sample size, but his OPS against lefties in 2006 was .549 in 89 ABs).

Given the way the platoon has gone thus far, Lofton and his left handed bat should take the majority of at-bats away from Nixon (also a lefty). It may seem a bit harsh, but there’s not much logic in playing Nixon outside of the rare situation where his career splits standout against a pitcher or someone needs a day off.

Gutierrez's numbers drop off significantly when facing righties, but they are still better than Nixon's, even though Nixon's primary role is to hit righties. Despite the dropoff, Gutz has kept certain aspects of his production consistent against all types of pitchers with only four hits and a homer the deficit between his splits (he also has 3 more walks versus righties).

In trading for Lofton, the team officially admitted to Nixon’s deficiencies as the left handed bat in the platoon. Wedge needs to field the best team possible for the rest of the season and Nixon is currently the worst outfielder on the roster. Do I seriously think Wedge will bench Nixon the majority of the season? No, but Lofton gives him every opportunity to do so from here on.

Adding Lofton gives the team’s overall speed a boost. Despite being 40 years old, Lofton has stolen 21 bases with Texas this year with an 84% success rate. Even if Wedge isn’t aggressive with Lofton on the bases, his ability will put extra pressure on pitchers as they face the heart of the order. Sizemore (.386 OBP) and Lofton (.380) gives Cleveland two excellent table setters for Martinez and Hafner. Blake has done an admirable job in the two spot, but can now be used to bolster the weaker end of the lineup (i.e. Nixon’s old spot). Here’s the projected lineup with Lofton included:

Player - BA / OBP / SLG

Sizemore - .275 / .386 / .469

Lofton - .306 / .380 / .437

Martinez - .309 / .379 / .525

Hafner - .258 / .386 / .442

Garko - .312 / .380 / .514

Peralta - .281 / .354 / .459

Gutierrez - .296 / .336 / .528

Blake - .267 / .347 / .456

Barfield - .251 / .278 / .328

It’s no Muderer’s Row, but a pretty impressive lineup just the same. The ability to get on base consistently has been a trademark of this team, wearing down pitchers with each at-bat. A prime example of this was the last start against Johan Santana. Despite a lack of baserunners, the Tribe was able to make the Twin’s ace work hard for his outs, throwing 114 pitches over 7 IP until he finally made a mistake in his final inning to tie the game at 2 all.

Saturday, July 28, 2007

The Tribe Reloads

Here's what I expected the Cleveland Front Office to do before the trade deadline: Ship out Lee for bullpen help and a AAA prospect, put Stanford or Sowers in the starting rotation, and continue with Gutz, Nixon, J-Mike, and Francisco in the outfield corners.

It's good to be wrong about these things sometimes.

Lofton Returns, Fans Notice

Now batting: Kenny Lofton






















The crowd of 37, 292 at Jacobs Field had begun to stir several minutes before the announcement was made as former Indian and fan-favorite Kenny Lofton stepped out of the dugout.

The crowd exploded once Lofton stepped out of the on-deck circle. They were on their feet for a full two minutes as Lofton went through his final motions before stepping into the batter's box. Lofton doffed his cap to the crowd to finalize the introduction for his third stint with the Cleveland Indians; he could not have received a warmer welcome.

Kenny received a standing ovation for each of his three hits Friday against the Twins.

Watching Lofton and Sizemore trot back to the dugout together during the first inning was beyond awesome, but I don't see Lofton as a way to bring back the teams from the 90's (it hurts me to hear people lament the loss of those teams, with such a great team right in front of them now). I do see him as a significant upgrade to the outfield and a crucial source of playoff experience on the youngest of the top contenders.

The Indians gave up single-A catcher Max Ramirez to get Kenny from Texas. Ramirez is having a great season with Kinston, but probably wouldn't contribute to the major league club for at least three more years. Ramirez has a lot of upside offensively, but a lot can happen to a minor league player's development before he reaches the majors. Another way to look at it is that Cleveland essentially traded Bob Wickman for Kenny Lofton; not a bad trade given their needs this season (although Wickman would have qualified as the extra late-inning reliever we need...ok, bad example).

The Lofton acquisition was made to bolster the outfield, but its effects reach well beyond the field. Lofton has what it takes to capture the attention of the average fan again. The 2007 Indians are in a sad situation as far as fan support at the Jake this year, despite fielding one of the best teams in baseball. As cautious as I am of comparing the 2007 club to one from the 1990's, Lofton represents a tangible link to that era. If a link to past teams is what it takes for the average fan to wake up and see just how great today's team is then so be it. Lofton could provide this spark for a dormant fanbase.

I'll go into detail on how Lofton fits into the Tribe's lineup in my next post.

Sleepy Kitten Gets Demoted

Cliff Lee as Sleepy Kitten; image courtesy of CarnegieAndOntario at LetsGoTribe.com











Cliff Lee was optioned to AAA Buffalo on Friday, less than a year removed from signing a major contract extension. As I said in my last post, Lee has been horrible this year and does not deserve a spot in the rotation of a major league contender. Despite Lee's performance on the mound, the last straw was drawn from his attitude. Lee has never shown much emotional investment in his career or the fate of his team. His apparent refusal to address issues with his pitch selection and execution (despite having the physical ability to do so) have placed him on the wrong side of his catcher and coaches. A five run inning elicits nothing more than an "aw shucks" and a sigh before he heads back into the dugout as if nothing happened. Lee's final act in an Indians uniform was to lift his cap in a mock acknowledgement of the booing Cleveland fans as he exited following his third straight game giving up 7 runs in less than 7 IP.

So how's that humble pie taste Cliffy?

In recounting the options the Tribe had in dealing with Lee, I overlooked the final minor league option he had left on his contract. The system behind it is a little complicated, but the bottom line is that Lee has not been on the 25-man roster long enough to eliminate all of his option years, allowing Cleveland to demote him this year.

Now, if you're the general manager, you obviously don't want a malcontent, $2.75 million pitcher hanging around your AAA staff too long. I'm still resolute in my thinking that Lee will never pitch for Cleveland again and will likely be traded to bolster the bullpen.

In an interview in the STO booth on Friday, Shapiro said "we're gonna get you [the team] that set up guy and then we're done; we're gonna sit back and watch." Lee could certainly be a part of that deal, but the minor league system is also loaded with excess parts in the outfield and firstbase.

If a deal can't get done before the July 31st deadline, any players involved would have to make it through waivers before the deal is finalized. Many post-deadline trades are struck down before they make it through the wire though, putting extra pressure on Shapiro to get a deal done by Tuesday night.

If Shapiro can convince another team that Lee still retains any semblance of a replacement level pitcher, his extremely desirable contract should weigh heavily on the minds of opposing GMs. Lee will be making $3.75 million in 2008, $5.75 million in 2009, and $8 million if his 2010 club option is picked up. That's a very tempting deal for a club looking to fill the fifth slot in their rotation (if they think they can get Lee to pull his head out of the sand, of course).

The most surprising part of the Lee situation is Aaron Laffey being called up to replace him. The Indians General Manager confirmed the decision on STO last night by saying, "in all likelihood, that [Lee's former rotation spot] will go to Aaron Laffey." Shapiro has a history of being very patient with young prospects (especially pitchers), which is why I did not expect him to make such a bold move. Shapiro traveled to Buffalo to see Laffey pitch in-person this week, so whatever Shap sees in this kid must be pretty darn good.

I think Laffey has the stuff to succeed at the next level. He is a groundball pitcher who has never given up many homers and has gradually increased his Ks and (significantly) decreased his BB totals each year. While I'm not particularly comfortable with giving a rotation slot to such an inexperienced pitcher, the fact that Shapiro has so much faith in the kid has caused me to soften my stance on the subject.

The following are two stat lines from two stud pitchers in the Tribe's minor league system:

Name League Age GS W-L IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP
Pitcher A
A+ 20 10 3-2 56 3.54 7.71 0.64 3.86 11.09 1.29

AA 20 17 3-7 90.1 3.59 7.47 0.6 4.78 8.97 1.36


Name League Age GS W-L IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP
Pitcher B AA 22 6 4-1 35 2.31 7.46 0.51 1.8 6.17 1.03

AAA 22 12 7-3 78.1 3.22 8.62 0.46 2.07 7.01 1.19

Pitcher A is C.C. Sabathia circa 2000 and Pitcher B is Aaron Laffey during the 2007 season. I'm not going to make too big a deal out of these stats, but it's an intriguing comparison. Another note is that Shapiro was Assistant GM to John Hart in 2001, Sabathia's rookie season. Just something to think about as Laffey's promotion approaches.