Trevor Time?

Many apologies to any esteemed readers who may have stopped by in search of an update in the last two months. I haven’t made a blog post for quite some time due to my new job and subsequent change of residence. Fortunately (or not, depending on what you think of the blog), I have a working internet connection again, but it seems I have some catching up to do on the state of the Tribe and the Hot Stove League. I’ll try not to repeat too much of what’s already been covered by other writers lately, but I do have a few topics I’d like to cover regardless.

Cleveland’s shopping list this offseason has two big items right at the top, in bold letters, underlined, and highlighted: a closer and either a second or third baseman. Despite a strong showing by Jensen Lewis in the final month of 2008 and Kerry Wood impersonator Adam Miller waiting in the wings, the Tribe has placed a priority on bringing in an experienced reliever to man the ninth. I went into detail in a previous post how the bullpen had some cracks in it heading into 2008 and still feel strongly that a lack of a solid contingency plan for when Borowski would inevitably fall off the cliff cost the team a pretty sizable chunk of wins.

I do think Betancourt will bounce back, with positive contributions from Perez, Lewis, and a couple fresh arms (Miller, Sipp, Meloan?), but I wouldn’t feel comfortable handing the closer gig to anything less than a proven commodity in 2009. The fact that Cleveland has three potential closers in Lewis, Perez, and Miller is great, but their services are needed elsewhere. Its one thing to draw on the bullpen depth in a pinch (injuries, etc.), but I think it would be a mistake to not take advantage of a deep free agent class. The team dug itself a steep hole last season while they were scrambling to find a replacement closer in-house; that can’t happen again.

GM Mark Shapiro made it clear that he would not make the same mistake twice and is determined to acquire a legit anchor for the bullpen who won’t end up sinking the ship (although Borowski was more like a torpedo…).

So who has Cleveland been talking to? Apparently, everyone:

"If there's a back-end bullpen alternative out there, then we're going to explore it," general manager Mark Shapiro told MLB.com.

Shapiro has reportedly been talking to agents for several relief pitchers, but the only two that have been confirmed by the GM as targets are Trevor Hoffman and Jose Valverde (via trade). After that, a whole slew of whispered names pop up in connection with Cleveland.

I’ve compiled a list of the top six relievers I would like Cleveland to pursue via free agency or trade, loosely ranked by how likely their acquisition is. I’m running a little short on time heading into my Turkey Day road trip, so the rest of the list will show up in my next post. Today I’d like to focus on the pitcher who I think is most likely to sign with Cleveland.

1.) Trevor Hoffman

2008 Team: San Diego
Age: 41
Previous Contract: 2 yr / $13.5 mil (2006-07), plus $7.5 mil option (2008)

There were two closers that I didn’t think would hit the market this off-season: one was Kerry Wood, the other was Trevor Hoffman. After the turbulent San Diego front office bungled negotiations by low-balling their longest tenured player, Hoffman opted to take his 554 career saves elsewhere.

Cleveland has shown early interest in Hoffman and has had experience dealing with him before. Hoffman nearly came to Cleveland three years ago before re-signing with San Diego (the fact that he had spent 13 years with SD and was still on good terms with their GM back then makes that near-miss very significant in rumored negotiations now). In a recent MLB.com interview, Hoffman showed no preference in his next destination:

"I'm absolutely open to anything," said Hoffman. "National League, American League, just something that's a good fit in a number of arenas. A lot of it is going to depend on what teams come into play."

I think Cleveland could easily sign Hoffman if that’s the direction they want to go in. Hoffman appears to be the best fit in terms of a proven track record, length of contract, and salary. A 1-2 year deal for around $7-8 million annually seems like a reasonable estimate based on his previous contract. There’s a possibility that a chunk of that could be incentives based, but since Hoffman did not miss significant time due to injury in 2008 that seems less likely.

Hoffman only threw 45.1 innings in 2008 after posting at least 50 in 15 of his 17 seasons (the last time he failed to reach this mark was 2003, where he only had 9 IP due to injury). This is due to a lack of save opportunities on a bad team and the fact that San Diego was trying to pace Hoffman’s innings. While reliable, Hoffman would have to be treated somewhat cautiously over the course of a season and would probably have to take the occasional save opportunity off depending on how his arm feels. Given the team's projected bullpen depth, I don't see this being much of an issue. Hoffman did not miss any significant time due to injury last season. He was day-to-day in May with arm soreness and had arthroscopic surgery after the season to remove a few bone chips from his throwing elbow.

The Tribe has several young arms in the pipeline and having Hoffman there for a couple seasons to hold down the fort and mentor his heir apparent would be an ideal development timeline. Three seasons ago, I would have been absolutely stoked to have Trevor Hoffman suit up with the Tribe. Based on his 2008 performance though, I can’t help but be wary of relying on Hoffman to captain the bullpen in 2009.

Hoffman didn’t have a particularly bad season, but there was clearly some regression occurring. It’s hard to critique a guy who hadn’t blown back-to-back save opportunities for 11 years before last season. There were a few interesting trends in 2008 though.

The first thing that jumped out at me was how many homeruns Hoffman gave up last year. Hoffman saw his HR/FB ratio jump to 13.8%, a 7.6% increase from his career total. Considering Hoffman logged 65.7% of his innings at a home field with the most pitcher friendly park rating in the Majors last year (.796, where 1.000 is neutral), this was a surprise. In fact, Hoffman gave up all but one of his eight homeruns at home, where he posted a 4.25 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 29.2 IP. His performance on the road seems better at first glance (2.87 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 15.2 IP), but his K/BB rates (5.40 home to 4.75 road) are similar while his WHIP and BAA increase by 0.27 and .047 respectively. Hoffman got hit harder at home, but he allowed fewer baserunners as well.

I’m not sure what to make of Hoffman’s longball numbers, but they seem a little flukey to me. While Hoffman’s K/BB ratio of 5.11 was better than his career average of 3.85, his hits per 9 IP were not especially high compared to previous seasons either, so no Byrd Effect here. He did get hit harder than in previous years though. Hoffman has a career SLGA (slugging against) of .340, a number that has increased over the past three seasons at .316, .358, and .394 from 2006 to 2008.

Normally, a pitcher who starts to get smacked around more will see a drop in velocity or control, but Hoffman’s average velocity has held steady the past four seasons (85.2 mph FB, 80.9 mph SL, 74.1 mph CB, 73.9 mph CH). Hoffman has had great success working with these pitch velocities in the past and I don't see any reason for his approach to suddenly hit the fan. As I mentioned earlier, Hoffman's K/BB and H/9 ratios are strong compared to previous seasons, so he does not appear to be suffering from control issues on the surface.

Hoffman’s overall numbers in 2008 are heavily weighted towards a poor first half, particularly in April (6.52 ERA, 9.2 IP) and June (6.48 ERA, 8.1 IP). Before the All Star break, Hoffman posted a 5.08 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 17 saves in 28.1 IP, while after the break he had a 1.59 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 13 saves in 18 IP. This isn’t to excuse the two crappy months earlier in the season, but I would have expected a (*ahem*) more experienced arm like Hoffman’s to wear down in the second half, not get stronger. Of course, the opposite happened in 2007 when he posted a 1.91 ERA before and a 4.44 ERA after the break. I was going to make a nifty point about how Hoffman still displays durability late in the season, even at age 41, but the two seasons contradict themselves. So yeah, never mind….

I’m not sure what to make of Hoffman for 2009. I’m not particularly worried about his occasional bad months translating into more consistent, um, inconsistency. Every pitcher hits a few rough patches, which tend to get amplified due to the small sample sizes available for relievers. I'm not too worried about his homerun totals either, since he has given up 6+ in a season a few times before. Also, five of the eight against him came in his two ugly months (May and June), but gave up no more than one homer in any other month. The homerun trend did not dog him throughout the season, which is a good sign.

What I am worried about is how his SLGA has been steadily increasing in an extremely pitcher friendly park. Even if I'm misinterpreting some of the other stats, I think the rising SLGA is a valid concern. I’m also slightly concerned about how he’s never pitched in the American League before, but I’m not sure relievers see their numbers inflate as much as starters making the move since they only have to face a handful of batters as opposed to an entire AL lineup three to four times.

Hoffman is far from fragile and has been very durable even after his rotator cuff surgery back in 2003. Is relying on the 41 year old Hoffman significantly less risky than the 37 year old Borowski was last season? Will he have more success than a player like Jensen Lewis? That’s something the Tribe will have to answer this off-season. Hoffman’s 554 saves and healthy track record set him far from the uncertainty that was associated with Borowski, in my opinion. I think regardless of how confident the team is in Lewis, Miller or who ever, they still have to sign a closer to mitigate the risk associated with using an unproven pitcher at closer.

The main reason I'm hesitant to totally endorse Hoffman is the mess with Borowski last year. I think if you were to remove that experience I might have a different view. It almost seems insulting to compare Hoffman to Borowski, but the risk of injury or fatigue is (was) there for both of them. Both were nearing the end of their careers, although Hoffman obviously has more of a reputation (that's an understatement). Both entered free agency after having a good year, where Borowski posted a 3.75 ERA and 36 saves with Florida. Plus there's the whole speech I made about not taking such a big risk at closer. I'm just not sure how to properly represent the degree of risk (if it were strictly financial this would be easy) associated with Hoffman right now.

Several of the top free agent closers have their own baggage as well. Kerry Wood’s injury history is well known. Fuentes may end up not being much better than Hoffman, but will probably cost a lot more for longer. Even Rodriguez has questions regarding his velocity and endurance at this stage of his career.

The bottom line for any closer is earning the save and Hoffman did that as well or better than any of the other free agents I just mentioned. Hoffman’s 86.7 save percentage matches up well with Rodriguez (89.8%), Fuentes (88.2%), and Wood (85.0%) in 2008 (a down year for Hoffman and a career year for everyone else, what does that tell you?). In that regard, Hoffman may end up as the best value on the relief market this year (seriously, K-Rod is going to end up with a fat, long term contract somewhere and he was only slightly more efficient at doing his job than Hoffman last year).

I have no idea how high Hoffman is on Shapiro’s white board. Based on what I know about Hoffman's health and effectiveness compared to other top closers last season, I would feel comfortable signing him. I know Cleveland wants to move quickly on locking up a closer if possible, so they can allocate funds towards settling the infield. If the price for Fuentes or Wood becomes too steep, Hoffman will quickly become the most appealing free agent for the Tribe.

Does Sabathia Deserve the Cy Young Hype?

If you had asked me at the beginning of August who I thought should win the NL Cy Young, I probably would have said Webb, Lincecum, or Santana depending on how they fared down the stretch. Sure, C.C. Sabathia had been shredding National League bats into dust for over a month at that point, but I didn't consider him a serious CY candidate.

First, the fact that Sabathia had split his time between two different leagues made him seem like a tough sell for an award traditionally given to NL-exclusive pitchers. Second, it seemed like Sabathia's credentials for the NL CY were being hyped up because he happened to get traded to Milwaukee in the middle of a playoff race. I was rooting for the Brew Crew to make the playoffs, but there was no way Sabathia would be able to keep up such a torrid pace, right? It almost seemed like a slight to the other candidates, several of whom were fighting for their own playoff berth, to discuss awarding the recently arrived Sabathia the title of the NL's Best Pitcher.

The trouble is, Sabathia hit the ground running in Milwaukee and never slowed down. Sabathia made 17 starts from July 8 to September 28, posting a 1.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 128 K over 130.7 IP. Milwaukee made no effort to temper C.C.'s competitive nature either, unleashing him in the midst of the wild card race with little concern for a pitch count. To get an idea of how far Sabathia pushed himself in the second half of the season, remember that the Major League leader in complete games was Roy Halladay with nine. Sabathia collected seven CG in about half that time (he had three in the first half with Cleveland, marking his second consecutive year with 10 CG).

Sabathia went on to pitch a complete game shutout on the final day of the season to punch the Brewer's first ticket to the postseason in 26 years. The must-win season finale was Sabathia's third consecutive start on just three days rest (he's in line to make a fourth straight start on short rest against Philly in Game 2 of the NLDS). Besides dragging a struggling Brewers club over the finish line, Sabathia's season is a testament to his durability, athleticism, focus, and outstanding skill as a pitcher. In fact, Sabathia has far surpassed his 2007 Cy Young winning campaign (19-7, 241 IP, 3.21 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 209 K) in every category except win percentage and total wins, making 2008 the best overall season of his career.

Would his stats be so impressive if Milwaukee hadn't given the 27 year old Sabathia free reign over his pitch counts though? As effective as Sabathia has been, there is a potential downside to letting him go like it's 1950 again (but not for Milwaukee). Milwaukee's desperation combined with Sabathia's confidence and competitive nature may have valuted C.C. beyond his peers in terms of performance this season, but I just hope 2008 doesn't come back to haunt him down the road. Interestingly enough, Tim Lincecum is ahead of Sabathia in Baseball Prospectus' Pitcher Abuse Points metric by 62,699 points. Sabathia is still well ahead of the field though with a 33,826 point buffer.

The risks associated with logging so many pitches per outing would grind down most pitchers, but who's to say Johan Santana wouldn't have dominated in the same way as Sabathia if the Mets didn't have millions of dollars still invested in their ace's arm. Santana could have easily reached the 20 win level without the Mets' bullpen holding him back, likely pushing him to the front of the pack in CY consideration. In that sense, it could be argued that Sabathia had an unfair advantage over more restricted (and sane) pitchers.

A similar argument of circumstance can be made on behalf of Tim Lincecum and the fact that he plays for a basement dweller like the Giants. Many voters feel that whether a player's team makes the playoffs is an important part of the awards equation, but I personally disagree with this notion. The player doesn't get to choose the environment he pitches in, all he can do is give his best effort and suck it up when the offense gets shut out or the bullpen implodes. Interestingly, Lincecum, Sabathia, and Santana are all within two wins of each other overall, partly negating the disparate teams issue. All three pitchers have had to deal with either a poor offense (Lincecum, C.C. with Cleveland) or leaky bullpen (especially Santana) on multiple occasions this season.

Even with the pitchers' decisions removed from consideration, Sabathia is arguably at a disadvantage compared to the rest of the NL CY field. The NL features much softer lineups compared to the AL, but Sabathia has had to deal with both leagues over a roughly equal number of starts (18 AL starts, 17 NL starts). Meanwhile, Lincecum and Santana have had twice as many starts logged against NL lineups and appear to have an edge against Sabathia if his entire season were to be taken into consideration.

This brings us to the biggest sticking point in advocating Sabathia for the NL CY. Should C.C.'s entire season be considered in the voting process?

Rick Sutcliffe is the only player to be traded mid-season and end up winning the Cy Young for the league he was traded to. Sutcliffe was dealt from Cleveland to the Cubs on June 13 in 1984. Given Sutcliffe's less than stellar performance while with Cleveland (4-5, 94.3 IP, 5.15 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 58 K) and his near perfect run in Chicago, it's seems the voters didn't give his time in Cleveland much thought. Sutcliffe also faced a seemingly better pitcher in the voting that year. It may have been because he was a rookie or his team finished second to Sutcliffe's Cubs, but Dwight Gooden was better than Sutcliffe over 68 more innings and didn't get a single first place vote (Sutcliffe won unanimously).

1984 NL Cy Young Award Results

Player	Team (WP)	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	1st Place Votes^
Rick Sutcliffe	CHC (.596)	16-1	150	2.69	1.08	155	24
Dwight Gooden	NYM (.556)*	17-9	218	2.60	1.07	276	0
Bruce Sutter	STL (.519)*	5-7 (45 SV)	123	1.54	1.08	77	0
Joaquin Andujar	STL (.519)*	20-14	261	3.34	1.10	147	0

*Team did not reach playoffs
^Out of 24 possible votes

The precedent set by Sutcliffe shows that voters are not necessarily swayed by total innings or even if the pitcher has spent the entire season in the same league. Sutcliffe struggled the entire time he was in the AL that season (C.C. had a bad April, but was dominant after that), but like Sabathia, dominated after being traded to the NL. If anything, Sutcliffe's poor first half should have worked against him, but instead the voters saw the impact he made during a partial season in Chicago and ran with it. I think there is a strong chance Sabathia will benefit in the voting by helping Milwaukee to the playoffs in a similar manner.

I probably wouldn't vote for Sabathia if his time in the AL was banned from consideration. Technically, the NL CY is only supposed to consider innings logged in that league and the Sutcliffe vote showed that any AL starts tend to be ignored (that 5.15 ERA in the first half really sticks out).

If C.C. is limited to his NL starts, the gap in innings (over 100), wins (7), and strikeouts (over 130) compared to Lincecum is just too great to truly justify voting for Sabathia. The seven complete games and five shutouts are impressive, but unfortunately don't deserve to carry as much weight since Sabathia appeared to gain an edge from the fact that the Brewers' didn't need to worry about his arm beyond 2008. As great as Sabathia's impact was on the Brewers' second half, his 14.2 pitching win shares trail Johan Santana by 4.1 and Lincecum by 9.6.

I figured Sabathia would have been closer in win shares considering how bad the rest of the Brewers have been lately. Milwaukee went 49-40 (.550) before the trade and just 41-33 (.554) after, so it's safe to say they would have missed the playoffs by a wide margin with a slumping offense and an injured Ben Sheets had they not made the trade (again, a matter of circumstance).

The NL leader in wins, Brandon Webb, doesn't really deserve to be grouped in with those three pitchers; he just isn't good enough this year. I opted to include Webb into the table below anyway because he is still a serious candidate for the CY in the eyes of the voter. There are a few other pitchers who have come close to or surpassed Webb's performance this season (Cole Hamels gets honorable mention here), but have not been as good as the Big Three and are too far behind Webb in wins to have a realistic shot at getting many first place votes this year, so they were excluded from the conversation.

2008 NL Cy Young Candidates

Player	Team (WP)	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	CG	SHO	Pitching WS
C.C. Sabathia	MIL (.554)	11-2	130.7	1.65	1.00^	128	7^	3^	14.2
T. Lincecum	SF (.444)	18-5	227.0	2.62	1.17	265^	2	1	23.8
J. Santana	NYM (.549)	16-7	234.3	2.53^	1.14	206	3	2	18.3
B. Webb	ARI (.506)	22^ -7	226.7	3.30	1.19	183	3	1	18.8

^Leads or ties NL

The Sutcliffe precedent may ultimately work against Sabathia because his AL starts are impressive in their own right. Here are Sabathia's total stats for 2008:

C.C. Sabathia Totals for 2008 Season

Team (WP)	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	CG	SHO	Pitching WS
TOTAL (.493)	17-10	253.0	2.70	1.11	251	10	5	22.4

After taking all of the above factors into account, I think I would stop just short of calling Sabathia the best pitcher in baseball this season. Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay are the only two pitchers who would cause me to pause in terms of who has compiled the best overall season (yes, I'm backtracking a bit and saying Halladay may be more deserving of the CY than Lee).

Considering Sabathia only had a 116 ERA+ (adjusted by league, 100 indicating an average pitcher) with Cleveland and a ridiculous 262 ERA+ with Milwaukee, I think the difference in leagues has to be taken into account when comparing Halladay, Lee, and Sabathia in 2008. Lee's ERA+ of 175 and Halladay's 155 actually makes their respective campaigns even more impressive since they weren't able to feast upon National League lineups after the All Star Break.

So in conclusion, does Sabathia deserve the National League Cy Young Award?

Probably not.

Will he win it?

No, I'd put my money on Lincecum by a slight margin over Santana.

Fun Fact

The Cy Young Award was initially given to the single best pitcher in the Major Leagues from 1956 to 1966. Sandy Koufax was the last pitcher to win the unified title of best pitcher in 1966.

Isaac Out as Bullpen Coach

Longtime bullpen coach, Luis Isaac, was dismissed from the team this week. The announcement was made by Manager Eric Wedge, who apparently had the last word on the decision. Fans and the media alike seem to be surprised by the move, as there was no indication that Isaac had done anything to warrant getting fired this season. Even insiders like Tribe beatwriter Anthony Castrovince said he was "stunned" to hear the news, so the events leading up to the firing were really kept quiet.

A legitimate explanation has yet to be released and we may not find out why Isaac was let go for a while, if at all. Wedge did point out that Isaac was not being fired on account of the bullpen's poor performance this year, which led me to believe this was a personal matter. My initial guess was some sort of confrontation or rift occured between Isaac and another member of the coaching staff. Whatever it was, the team doesn't want to share the details.

The Diatriber provided a likely scenario in a post on Let's Go Tribe:

I think this is a move to clear the way for Scott Radinsky to replace Luis in the bullpen. Radinsky is ALWAYS lauded by the organization for righting players that are sent to him (Jen Lewis) or trying to put the finishing touches on young arms (I seem to remember a piece on him wanting to keep Stevens in AAA until he was “ready” for MLB) before they come to the parent club.

Who knows how the Isaac thing went down and why he wasn’t simply re-assigned, but my guess is that they decided that they wanted to get Radinsky into the Tribe bullpen and asked Luis to take another position. If he refused, he’s shown the door. Maybe more was in play, but I think it’s a matter of getting Radinsky up here with all of the young arms that he’s helped develop over the last few years.

This makes sense in terms of trying to advance the organization and Radinsky does seem like a logical replacement for Isaac. Still, I'm sad to hear that Luis is no longer with the team after 43 years. Isaac was first appointed bullpen coach in 1993 and has become sort of an institution at the Jake; one of the few constants left from that era of Indians baseball.

I wish Luis good luck at the next stop in his career, I'm sure he won't have much trouble finding an organization that values his pitching expertise.

Bull***

A lot of things have gone wrong for the Tribe this season. The heart of the order has spent most of the season on the disabled list. Injuries to the starting rotation have given way to open tryouts. Many of these blips you just can't build into the off-season shopping list. Every time I go through the long list of things that have gone haywire though, I keep getting hung up on the bullpen.

The bullpen is tricky because on one hand it appeared strong in the off-season and you can only dump so much money into what would likely amount to insurance policies. On the other hand, it should have been obvious to the experts in the Front Office (not so much to me as I'm obviously not an expert on anything) that some of the pillars holding up the relief corps were baring a few cracks.

Cleveland's bullpen was one of the best in the Majors last year and boasted a 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 49 saves. Betancourt had a career year and was the undisputed king of the 8th inning. Rookies Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis made an impact in the late innings and seemed primed to contribute in 2008. I personally hyped up the arrival of Masahide Kobayashi as a key addition for 2008 based on his experience as a closer in Japan. The Front Office was very familiar with the volatility of relief pitching, but the pros appeared to outweigh the cons with the Tribe's bullpen core heading into 2008.

Like every off-season, risk assessment is a big part of deciding how heavily to lean on certain players and how much money to spend. Cleveland took a gamble with Joe Borowski's arm and it backfired; there's not much else to it. The team certainly didn't go in without a backup plan though, far from it. In fact, I advocated making Kobayashi the closer once Borowski went down (oops). Masa was added as depth for the pen and I feel that the Tribe got him as a backup in case a late inning role became vacant. Masa's backup role (speculation on my part) was never officially stated by the team, not that anyone expected them to say something like that with Borowski's name still at the top of the depth chart.

Borowski went down with a triceps strain in May and never regained his lost velocity (the velocity was down before, but the injury didn't help). Borowski saw three more save opportunities in June before being released July 1 (he ended up on a minor league contract with Boston, but has not contributed in the Majors again).

Cleveland's first line of defense in case of a Borowski implosion was Rafael Betancourt. Betancourt was the interim closer from late April to the end of May. Raffy didn't take well to the closer's role, but I think that was more reflective of his struggles in the entire first half than anything else. Betancourt posted a 6.38 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 4.33 K/BB ratio, and converted 4/6 saves over 14.1 IP during his initial foray into closing from April 24 to May 28.

I still think Betancourt has what it takes to be an effective closer, but it was a matter of the wrong guy at the wrong time in 2008. Betancourt's 6.00 ERA before the All Star break made it clear that he was not pitching at 100% and really wasn't a viable option for closer at the time. Granted, the team was desperate and probably just following their plan; somebody had to pitch the final inning with Borowski hurt.

Kobayashi was the primary closer from mid May to late July, but it soon became clear that the transition to the Majors and, more importantly, the career high in innings was taking its toll. Kobayashi posted a solid 3.05 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.54 K/BB ratio, and converted 5/7 save opportunities in 44.1 IP before the All Star break. Kobayashi has only exceeded 50 IP in his career three times in nine Pro Yakyu seasons ('01, '04, '06). It may be coincidental, but Masa's two highest season ERA's in Japan occurred when he pitched 52 (4.33 ERA) and 57 innings (3.90 ERA), respectively. I think these ERA spikes are notable in that Kobayashi owns a career ERA of 2.79 in the Pro Yakyu League.

As the 34 year old Kobayashi crept toward the 50 IP mark in his rookie season his pitches began to lose some of their effectiveness, resulting in more multi-run innings. Cleveland opted to cut Masa's innings in the second half from an average of 12.12 per month from April to July, to just 3 each in August and September.

It appears that Cleveland may have been banking too much on Betancourt and Kobayashi (assuming they viewed him as a major cog for 2008). I don't think it's a matter of hindsight either, since certain information was available during the off-season. One point that I had alluded to in a previous post was Betancourt's innings load last season.

After shattering his career high in IP of 67.7 (2005) by 21.6 (includes post season) and throwing so many high leverage, stressful innings in 2007, common sense would dictate that something had to give.

I'm not talking about a typical regression (that was already obvious given Raffy's god-like numbers), I'm talking about a more drastic change be it a tired arm or more serious injury. Raffy's performance clearly shows something went wrong between 2007 and 2008. My theory is that he's had a nagging injury all season that was precipitated by his being the bullpen's workhorse last year. This would match up with reports of back stiffness and an obvious loss of control (career worst 2.52 K/BB ratio in 2008). I don't know how much concern Betancourt's 2007 work load caused the team, but it seems like Betancourt was supposed to be the key to the bullpen a second straight year.

Besides the announced back issue, I still can't pinpoint what may be bothering Betancourt. Considering the team signed him to a three year deal last winter, you'd think they'd have shut him down at this point in a lost season if he had a truly serious injury. Maybe he's not hurt and the best thing is for him to work out whatever control issues he's having, I honestly don't know.

There was risk in signing Kobayashi, although I'd be short-changing the team's scouts to suggest they didn't do their homework on the guy. Still the question of whether Masa would make a smooth transition to the Major Leagues must have been hanging over Cleveland's head as they finalized the bullpen for Opening Day. I feel that Masa made a successful adjustment to the Majors, but his season was derailed by fatigue in the end. Either way, Kobayashi did not fit the profile of an impact pitcher heading into 2008.

All these issues lead back to the need for a contingency plan at closer. With the team's two veteran setup men reeling, the team was left without enough quality arms to fill in for the 8th and 9th. Unfortunately, the team couldn't have Perez toss a two inning save every time (although old-school closers like Goose Gossage often did), since he was already being heavily utilized everywhere but the 9th. The bullpen ended up being spread too thin, despite apparent fail-safes meant to prevent such a severe collapse in the hierarchy.

So lesson one, the team really can't afford to leave the closer job up to anyone less than a proven, healthy pitcher for 2009. No closer by committee, no wait-and-see on a guy held together by duct tape, but a full time, established closer. This is easier said than done because truly reliable closers tend to be hard to come by.

It's been said before, but the closer role really is the anchor for the entire bullpen. Cleveland has to go into 2009 with that anchor or they'll encounter the same problems they've had this year.

The basic bullpen structure seems to revolve around five "core" pitchers who handle the bulk of the innings. Besides the closer and setup man, there tends to be a second, reliable reliever who covers the 7th-8th, a strong middle reliever who comes in to protect the lead, and a weaker middle reliever who comes in to eat innings and contain the damage when the team is behind. This is just the impression I got from checking out how other teams tend to structure their bullpen (more detail on this later).

With the army of relievers the Tribe has marched out this year, it may not seem like the bullpen really fits into this mold. Cleveland does have a potentially strong core of relievers who fit this archetype for 2009 though (yes, I realize my use of the word "potentially" is hypocritical to a degree, since I just got done preaching about how the team left too much to chance this year. I wasn't saying you can eliminate risk, but felt the team didn't place as much weight on certain factors as they should have in the past. Hopefully they are better prepared in 2009, even though financial and depth restraints are never easy to navigate).

Player	Role
Free Agent	Closer
R. Perez	Setup
R. Betancourt	7th-8th; top tier
J. Lewis	6th-8th; top tier
M. Kobayashi	7th-8th; mid tier
E. Mujica	Cleanup

This roster currently has a few assumptions built into it:

1.) Perez's numbers level out from his modest 2007 decline and he doesn't suffer any ill effects from an 80 inning season.

2.) Betancourt is 100% healthy again and reverts back to his career average performance. Raffy hasn't been dominant at all this season, but he has shown signs of progress with a 3.71 ERA in his last 26.2 IP compared to a 6.00 ERA in his previous 42.

3.) Lewis holds steady in his second full season. He may have struggled in June and July with a 6.87 ERA, but has an excellent 2.90 ERA in his last 31 IP. Lewis has also made a strong case for himself by going 12 for 12 in save opportunities during that stretch.

4.) Kobayashi significantly improves his endurance (this may be tough, given his age).

Those four players give Cleveland some good pieces to work with heading into the off-season, but there are still a few mines to traverse in that list, even with the optimistic outlook I have for 2009. I think in addition to the acquisition of a closer, a big boost for next season's bullpen will come out of the minor leagues.

A major strength of the pen in 2007 was the depth available in the minors, but outside of Mujica there just wasn't much available in 2008. I think that will change next season.

The bullpen absolutely has to be retooled for 2009 or this team isn't going anywhere. A team that goes into the playoffs, let alone the regular season, with a weak bullpen is just shooting itself in the foot before they even leave the starting line. Cleveland may have paid the price for having too much confidence in and/or overtaxing their relievers in 2007, but they will not be making the same mistakes twice.

In Part II, I'll break down some interesting minor league pitchers that may be ready to contribute to Cleveland's bullpen in 2009. I'll also take a look at the projected free agent market for closers.

Fun Fact

Jhonny Peralta became the first Indians shortstop to ever hit 20 homeruns and 40 doubles in a single season. - courtesy of STO

Tribe Signs Collegiate Standout from Taiwan

Cleveland finalized negotiations with right handed pitching prospect Chen-Chang Lee earlier this week. The 21 year old Lee is a native of Taiwan and started for his national team in the Beijing Olympics.

According to Cleveland's Assistant General Manager of Scouting, John Mirabelli, the team has scouted Lee since he was 16 years old. Cleveland reportedly offered Lee a contract in the past, but was turned down. Lee chose to attend Taipei Ti Wu college before going pro, the same school that produced Chien Ming Wang.

A Chinese news source translated by the blog Taiwan Baseball reports Lee "received a $350K signing bonus + a possible $90K for tuition if he performs well in the fall instructional league. Aside from the high six figure offer from a NPB team, Lee received interest from the Indians and 4 other ML teams. The other clubs' offers were all rumored to have been less than $150K (with the Twins offering less than $100K). The article also goes on to say that the reason for some of the scout's apprehension with not offering/or the lower offer for Lee, was because of Lee's limited upside (will probably be a middle reliever) and that he was over utilized in Taiwan."

Apparently, Lee and other Taiwanese pitchers were viewed by multiple Major League scouts at the Olympics. Lee may have boosted his value recently with a strong performance in Beijing. Lee surrendered just 3 H, 2 BB, and 1 ER with 7 SO over 6.2 IP against the Cuban national team. He followed that strong outing up with 2.1 IP, 1 ER, and 4 SO against the United States. Lee has participated in various collegiate and amateur leagues during his career, as well and is highly regarded in Taiwan.

On his blog, Castronvince writes that Lee "reportedly throws a sinker, slider and split-finger. His fastball is said to max out at 94 mph." Lee also features a side-arm delivery, which is one reason scouts view him as a reliever if he ever makes the Majors. In a 2007 ESPN.com article, Keith Law described Lee as a "fast return on investment" and "the top college pitcher" in Taiwanese baseball. According to previous reports cited by Taiwan Baseball, Lee has encountered some shoulder injuries in the past. Given the extent to which Lee has been scouted and a successful physical, his shoulder does not appear to be a major concern at this point.

Lee is expected to report to Class-A Kinston for the 2009 season.

On Pacific Rim Baseball

Even if Lee does not make an impact in the Major Leagues, his signing may serve as another stepping stone for Cleveland baseball in East Asia. Cleveland has been very active throughout the region for several years and all signs point to Asia as an emerging hot bed for baseball prospects. Taiwan, South Korea, and China have joined Japan in producing Major League caliber players and MLB has started to aggressively promote the sport in these emerging regions. Lee is one of Taiwan's best known players and his career with the Tribe should draw a fair amount of interest there. His signing may encourage prospects to take a closer look at Cleveland's system in the future.

The Dodgers have had a strong presence in China since the 1980s when they teamed up with the China Baseball Association. The partnership led to visits by Dodgers coaches and scouts, field construction, baseball clinics, and youth leagues in China. The Dodgers and Padres played two exhibition games in China last Spring, marking the first meeting of two MLB teams in the country.

MLB has had a flurry of activity the past two years, establishing grass roots programs to promote the sport, signing an agreement with Chinese television to air the World Series, and hosting the Chinese National team at this year's Arizona Fall League.

The Yankees began collaborating with the Chinese Baseball Association last year on ways to develop and promote baseball in China. New York became the first MLB team to sign Chinese players in pitcher Kai Liu and catcher Zhenwang Zhang, both 19 years old. Further utilizing their well-known name, the Yankees also became the first MLB team to sign a sponsorship deal with a Chinese company.

Seattle signed two more Chinese players later on in 2007, catcher Wei Wang and infielder/outfielder Yu Bingjia.

Taiwan was represented in the Majors well before 2007. Yankees ace Chien-Ming Wang is by far the most famous and had an outstanding sophomore season in 2006 (19-6, 218 IP, 3.63 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 1.46 K/BB). The Dodgers have had four Taiwanese players in their system since 2002 (Chin-Feng Chen, Chin-Lung Hu, Hong-Chih Kuo, Chin-hui Tsao), while Colorado (Chin-hui Tsao) and Cleveland have each signed one.

Cleveland's prospect, relief pitcher Sung-Wei Tseng, split the 2008 season in Kinston (5.27 ERA, 54.2 IP) and Akron (8.80 ERA, 15.1 IP), where he has apparently been struggling.

Checking In with the Late Additions

In keeping with the Spring Training theme for the second half of the season, Cleveland’s roster went through some major changes in September. A few players finally returned from injuries, but most are just in town for a hard earned cup-of-coffee. With so many players vying for work, it can be hard to keep track of who’s done what, so I thought I’d take a brief look at how some of the rookies and returning veterans have fared since joining the club (I intentionally left the relief pitchers out, but will get to the bullpen as a whole in my next post).

Michael Aubrey

Aubrey actually started six games at first base and one as a DH with Cleveland way back in May (.674 OPS, 2 HR, 30 PA). In 72 games with Buffalo this year, Aubrey compiled a .281 AVG, .328 OBP, .418 SLG line along with 18 doubles and 7 homeruns. Despite average production at the plate, his 97 minor league games are by far the most he’s played in a season since 2004 (98 games), making Aubrey’s health a bright spot for 2008.

The 26 year old has been slow to advance through the minors and 2008 marks his first appearance in Cleveland. The main reason Aubrey hasn’t been able to string together a lights out season in the high minors is a disheartening series of back and lower body injuries. So to be fair, Aubrey may well possess the ability to succeed, but his body has failed him over his career.

According to minor league guru Tony Lastoria, Aubrey is also out of minor league options after this season and the logjam at first base does not bode well for the oft injured infielder. Cleveland really needs all the help it can get at first though, so a fresh face is certainly welcome.

Aubrey has only appeared in five games so far, but seems to be getting a start in roughly every other game. In a miniscule 17 PA, Aubrey has collected four hits, two walks, and an RBI. It’s way too late in the season to get a real bead on whether Aubrey can handle Major League pitching, but he’ll likely glean a few starts from the mix of Garko and Martinez.

I’m not sure if the presence of Martinez and Aubrey (kind of hard to ignore) has provided Garko with some extra motivation lately, but his offense has picked up considerably. Unfortunately, even with a (relatively) hot August Garko still isn’t making a strong case for retaining his starting gig next season.

Even with the current issues at first, I have a feeling Aubrey may be traded or let go this off-season since he’s out of options, injury prone, and is facing competition at first base from incumbents and other minor leaguers.

Josh Barfield

Barfield has run into a disappointing combination of bad luck and poor performance this year. In what was supposed to be a bounce back season, Barfield struggled to gain any traction in Buffalo. Over 73 games in AAA, Barfield managed a weak .251, .292, .368 line in 320 PA. There’s barely been any improvement between his 444 Major League PA’s in 2007 (.243, .270, .324) and his time in the minors now. That’s bad news no matter how you slice it.

I’ve always wanted to take a closer look at Barfield’s decline, but at first glance his career is just puzzling to me. How does a player who posted consecutive OPS’ of .922, .728, and .820 through Class A+, AA, and AAA take such a drastic nosedive just when he’s supposed to be entering his prime? Barfield was only 23 years old when he hit .280 with 13 HR and 32 doubles with the Padres. At age 25, he seems destined to be a total bust as a major leaguer.

Cleveland promoted him as a more experienced alternative to Asdrubal Cabrera back in early June. The very next game, Barfield was hit by a ball that resulted in surgery on a tendon in his middle finger. I don’t think anybody was expecting Josh to tear the cover off the ball, but I still feel sorry for the guy. While Barfield rehabbed the finger, Cabrera essentially locked up second base and threw away the key (bad for Barfield, good for the team and Cabrera).

Barfield has started a game in the last two series (@BAL, KC), but that’s it since he was rehabbing before that. I wouldn’t be surprised if Barfield gets a few more token starts, but he’s basically out of a job with the sudden emergence of Cabrera (I doubt he factored into the team’s plans this early, otherwise why trade for Barfield later that year?).

Victor Martinez

Victor may have made his final minor league rehab start the last week of August, but as far as I’m concerned he’s still rehabbing. The team planned on bringing Martinez along very slowly in his return from elbow surgery. Martinez has actually seen more playing time than I expected in the past two weeks, rotating between first, catcher, and DH over 11 starts.

The fact that Martinez has appeared comfortable behind the plate (even playing consecutive games there) tells me that he’s close to 100% health-wise. I doubt the timing on his swing is quite up to speed yet based on how long he couldn’t swing a bat and that he hadn’t faced ML pitching for quite a while (think of it as a player who missed spring training and had to start the season cold). Even so, Martinez has looked pretty good over the past two weeks, posting a solid .290, .378, .452 line with 9 H, 8 RBI, and 6 R in 8 starts. He’s hardly been dead-weight in the lineup, which is exactly what Cleveland wanted to see before the season ended.

The main thing missing from Martinez’s season thus far was his ability to drive the ball. Over 130 PA’s in May and June (I excluded April because I don’t think the elbow was seriously hindering him yet), Victor’s SLG was a paltry .267. Considering his career SLG is .463, it’s fairly obvious injuries were sapping Martinez’s power. Since the surgery, Martinez has a .466 SLG and hit his first two taters of the season. It’s been like night and day since Martinez had elbow surgery, so I wouldn’t worry about him for 2009.

Travis Hafner

Hafner was just activated off the 60-day DL on September 9, so there’s not a lot to report here in terms of in-game action. Wedge has been using Hafner about every other day (that seems to be the trend with such a crowded bench) in the middle of the lineup as DH.

In case you missed it earlier, Hafner’s right shoulder was the reason he was out all season. Anthony Castrovince quoted Head Trainer Lonnie Soloff on the injury:

“Hafner was able to build up the muscles surrounding his clavicle, and that had the effect of masking what was going on in the scapula (shoulder blade) area. Beneath the surface, the muscles around Pronk's scapula were wasting away, unbeknownst to the player and the team. Both parties insist Hafner wasn't bothered by the shoulder in 2007.”

Last I heard, Hafner was still working his way back and continuing to strengthen his shoulder. The shoulder was strong enough to ruin the Bowie Baysox playoff run though. Batting behind human wrecking ball Matt La Porta (.462 AVG, 5 R, 5 RBI vs. Bowie), Hafner went 2-6 with 2 bombs and 7 RBI in two games.

Hafner is in a similar situation to Martinez in that he is basically starting his season over again ice cold. I’ve only seen Hafner bat in a couple games, but he’s definitely not in any kind of groove right now. His timing is off and he seems to have a hard time squaring up the fastball. One positive is that Hafner isn’t swinging at balls out of the zone very often, so he is showing some patience at the plate.

Oddly enough, Baltimore’s manager still respected Hafner’s bat enough to issue an intentional walk to him with men in scoring position. Hafner has three hits and four strikeouts in four September starts with Cleveland.

Asdrubal Cabrera

Since returning from Buffalo on July 18 AstroCab has racked up a .307, .390, .464 line, 11 2B, 5 HR, 25 R, 26 RBI and 3 SB in 50 starts and 201 PA.

Yeah, that’s pretty awesome. Next….

Zach Jackson

Jackson may have played his way out the conversation for sixth starter in 2009. The young left-hander got crushed by the Twins on Tuesday, surrendering 7 ER on 9 hits and a walk over 5.1 IP. Jackson has been a bit of a wild card in his brief stay with the Tribe, averaging 5.88 innings per start with a 6.48 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

His tendency to attack the strike zone (63% of his pitches are strikes) and 3.66 K/BB ratio aren’t bad, but Jackson has a tendency to give up runs in bunches. Over 19% of Jackson’s innings have ended with multiple runs scoring. When he gets hit, he gets hit hard.

Jackson’s last two starts are on the road against Boston and Chicago, so he still has a chance to reassert himself versus the field.

Scott Lewis

No disrespect to Lewis, but I’m not sure I’d heard of him before he was called up last week. The 24 year old Ohio State alum has been tearing up Class AA hitters this season. Lewis boasts a 2.33 ERA, .97 WHIP, and 6.77 K/BB ratio over 73.1 IP (5.62 per start) with Akron. He also made a smooth transition to Buffalo, posting a 2.63 ERA, .96 WHIP, and 5.25 K/BB ratio in his first four starts.

Lewis went on to pitch eight shutout innings at Baltimore in his debut. He followed it up with a six inning, three hit, five strikeout shutout against Minnesota, which definitely turned some heads. Like I said, I don’t know much about Lewis, but fortunately Tony Lastoria provides a detailed scouting report on his blog:

“To the casual observer, Lewis' high strikeout rate would seem to indicate he throws some serious heat; however, this is not the case. Lewis has a fastball that consistently sits around 87-89 MPH and tops out at 91 MPH, but his tremendous command of his secondary pitches along with good arm action and deception throughout his delivery makes his fastball play up and look faster. He also throws a curveball and changeup, and the power and depth he has added to his nasty 12-6 curveball has made it one of the best in the system. His changeup has developed into a plus pitch, and he gets a lot of action on his pitches in the strike zone.”

The array of tools and an impressive minor league track record makes Lewis an interesting player to watch going forward. The thing I was most impressed with was Lewis’ focus in his first two Major League starts. How many guys can jump from Class AA to the Majors and show no sign of nerves in their performance? I’ll be sure to catch Lewis’ remaining starts this season.

Anthony Reyes

I’ve talked about Reyes in depth before, so this is more of a minor update. Reyes left his September 5 start after the third inning because of soreness in his throwing elbow. It turns out the elbow inflammation has been slow to heal, so the team opted to shut down Reyes for the final weeks of the season.

According to Anthony Castrovince, “St. Louis had bounced [Reyes] between starting and relief work, and the Indians think that might have contributed to his elbow trouble.”

Reyes has looked like a steal early on, compiling a 1.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 1.25 K/BB ratio over 6 starts (5.71 IP per start). Tribe Manager Eric Wedge feels confident about Reyes despite the minor setback with his elbow:

"He did a great job with his fastball. His changeup is a plus pitch, and I saw more of a breaking ball than was advertised. He's stoic. Nothing fazed him. Obviously, there's going to be strong competition, but he's pitched as well as anybody in that group."

Barring any free agent signings, I have a hunch Reyes will be a frontrunner for fifth starter at the outset of the 2009 season.

Road Trip

I'll be visiting the North Coast this week, but unfortunately I didn't have much time to prepare any content for while I'm gone. So as always, thanks for visiting and check back next week for the latest post.

Go Tribe

Tribe Heats Up in August

On July 9, Cleveland was settling in for an extended stay in the AL Central basement. The Tribe was 16 games under .500, 15.5 games out of first, and two games behind the Royals. While C.C. Sabathia made his first start for Milwaukee, his former team was in the midst of a 10 game losing streak.

On July 10, Cleveland was left without its Opening Day ace, third and fourth starting pitchers, third and fourth hitters in the lineup, a legitimate closer, and any momentum whatsoever. Of course, in one of the sick twists of baseball, Cleveland began to play like a contender again.

The day after Sabathia left for the Brew Crew, Cleveland strung together one of its best stretches all season, going 10-7 to close out July. Even though their 10 game win streak was broken by Seattle on Friday, Tribe fans should be proud of the way their team has played lately en route to an 18-8 record for August.

The same team that failed to put together a winning month all season and hadn’t had a positive run differential since May (+8) suddenly came to life after trading their best starting pitcher. Yeah, that makes perfect sense.

Playoffs? Playoffs?

I can’t believe I’m writing this, but has Cleveland’s win streak given them a shot at the playoffs? I guess it’s mathematically possible…so there is that. The Tribe’s remaining schedule is rife with opportunity to move up, but it’s also very difficult.

Including the two remaining against Seattle this weekend, Cleveland has 13 games against teams with a losing record (Seattle, K.C., Baltimore), with six of those being at home. They also have six games against the division leading Chi Sox (road-home split), three against the Twinkies, and three against Detroit (who are pretty much irrelevant after the sweep). Just to make the wild card interesting, we also have a four game set at Fenway in the last week of the season.

Based on the 10.5 game deficit with 29 games remaining, I’m going to say Cleveland has no shot of surpassing Boston, Chicago, and Minnesota. At all. No offense, but it would be nuts to expect such a thing.

With any luck though, Cleveland could seriously screw up Chicago or Boston’s playoff hopes, which would be awesome in itself. Go Tribe.

The Pitching

The starting pitching has been at its best since May when Cleveland tossed 44 1/3 scoreless innings and posted a 2.76 ERA for the month. In August, Tribe starters have gone 12-6 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 1.55 K/BB ratio, and 2 CG over 167 IP.

Obviously, Cliff Lee has been throwing like some kind of left handed messiah all season. August has been especially good for Mr. Lee with a 1.86 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 2.85 K/BB ratio over 38.2 IP.

The second best starter this month has been Anthony Reyes by a wide margin. Since joining the Tribe in early August Reyes has made four starts, throwing 24.1 innings with a sparkling 2.22 ERA. Reyes’ 1.36 WHIP and 1.10 K/BB ratio suggest he may be catching a few breaks in allowing so many baserunners, but not a lot of runs. I’d keep an eye on Reyes for the rest of the season though, as he’s making a strong case for one of the two rotation slots available at the start of the 2009 season.

Zach Jackson deserves honorable mention for continuing to improve in each of his three starts this season. Jackson was sort of thrown into the fire so the team could see what he can do, but his 6.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 0 BB outing against Detroit this week was his best start yet (his biggest mistakes came on two solo homers, not bad against such a stacked offense).

Carmona’s 5.22 ERA over his last five starts gets a free pass from me right now. Carmona still hasn’t locked in his control since coming back from the DL and has had difficulty getting a good break on his pitches and keeping the ball down in the zone. His last start against Detroit was a good example when he struggled early (4 ER in first two IP), but was able to make the proper adjustments by correcting his arm slot mid-game. I wouldn’t worry about the overall numbers for Carmona this season, but seeing him take what the pitching coach tells him and be able to apply it right away is a good sign.

Sowers has made some progress in August, with a deceiving 6.03 ERA over his last six starts. If you remove the start at Texas where he got shelled for 7 ER over 3.2 IP (that happens to a lot of pitchers at Arlington), Sowers’ ERA over that span drops to 4.88. Still, Sowers has yet to separate himself from Jackson or Reyes in terms of his 2008 ML performance. Then again, we haven’t seen enough of Jackson or Reyes yet, so Sowers could certainly surpass them by season’s end.

The Offense

The offense has been the real driving force in August with the team posting a season best .281 AVG, .362 OBP, .471 SLG line to go with their 5.72 runs per game. Many of the younger players who had been struggling most of the season suddenly woke up in August. Below are some of the standout performers from this month (stats current as of 8/28/08). There are really only two surprises on this list because Choo, Peralta, Shoppach, and Francisco have been running at a good clip for a few months now.

Player	PA	R	H	2B	HR	AVG	OPS
F. Gutierrez	80	12	24	7	4	.329	.977
S. Choo	85	18	22	9	3	.293	.936
J. Peralta	111	20	33	6	4	.330	.897
K. Shoppach	94	19	20	4	6	.244	.846
B. Francisco	91	13	28	4	4	.308	.827
R. Garko	101	9	27	5	2	.307	.808

Even though Shop’s batting average and OPS have declined some since he posted a .917 and 1.065 OPS in June and July, he has still compiled more walks and runs than in any previous month. Shoppach is also on pace to exceed his monthly hits total and has already tied his HR total with six. Considering he has a 1.036 OPS in his last 10 games, it doesn’t look like Shoppach is going to lessen his grip on the starting catcher role anytime soon.

Choo has shown great progress in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, racking up extra base hits and playing solid defense. If Choo’s current numbers were adjusted to a full, 162 game season, he would finish with 142 hits, 53 doubles, and 16 homeruns. To put that kind of production in perspective, AL leader Brian Robert’s currently has 46 2B, Alex Rodriguez has 31, and Grady Sizemore has 29.

Choo may be running hot right now, but he still has a very respectable .841 OPS on the season pointing to a consistent approach at the plate. I think Choo’s outstanding production in what was supposed to be a bounce-back year from surgery has at least earned him consideration for the 2009 outfield. The fact that Choo’s 2008 OPS+ of 119 is on pace with the last time he was healthy (118 OPS+ in 167 PA for 2006, his first year with Cleveland) makes him an interesting player to watch going forward.

I’m not sure it’s fair to say Francisco’s been in a slump, since his .765 and .795 OPS’ for June and July are pretty decent. Even if his overall numbers have fluctuated some, Francisco has still done a good job of getting on base all season with a .341 OBP. It’s easy to forget this is Francisco’s rookie season, but his patience at the plate and reliable offensive production really doesn’t reflect his rookie status (granted, not many rookies are 26 years old with hefty college and minor league experience either).

The fact that Francisco has bounced back from a sub-par June and July after starting out hot in May is encouraging and suggests he is already able to make the proper adjustments over the course of a Major League season. Francisco’s career minor league numbers compare favorably to his performance at the ML level so far. Francisco posted a .291 AVG, .357 OBP, .459 SLG line over 2344 minor league at-bats and has a .284 AVG, .341 OBP, .466 SLG line over 373 at-bats in 2008 so far.

Francisco and Choo seem to have very similar skill sets at this point in their careers. Both have some pop in their bats, get on base at a decent rate, have strong throwing arms, can play either left or right field, and project to be above average outfielders in the near-term. Even their ages (Francisco is 26, Choo 25) and career minor league stats (Francisco an .814 OPS, Choo an .836 OPS) are eerily similar.

With Matt LaPorta on the way sooner than later, I have no idea how Cleveland will go about choosing between the two outfielders (assuming LaPorta stays in left field, of course).

Amazingly, Franklin Gutierrez is one of the hottest hitters on the team right now. After stinking up the first 57 games of the season with a .579 OPS, Gutz reversed course in the next 28 with an .855 OPS. The biggest difference now is that Gutz has managed to cut his K/BB rate in half from 4.90 to 2.62, adding .061 points to his batting average and .064 to his OBP in the process. For whatever reason, Franklin appears to be seeing the ball much better than before.

Despite the recent lift, Gutz’s season has been a disappointment. He still hasn’t proven that he can hit right handed pitching very well (.722 OPS in 2007, .637 OPS in 2008) and has seen a significant regression against the lefties he crushed to the tune of a .920 OPS in 103 PA in 2007 (.755 OPS in 111 PA in 2008). Despite getting a comparable number of at-bats to Francisco this season, Gutierrez has yet to establish himself as a viable starter for 2009. Gutz has also been seeing the majority of his at-bats against righties this year, but has just recently started to show any progress against them.

I’m hesitant to write off Gutz as nothing more than a platoon player with Cleveland, but unfortunately I can’t back up the hunch I have about him right now. As much as I want to see Gutz’s offense catch up to his wicked defensive tools, it has yet to happen over the past two seasons. His 2008 splits (.118 difference in OPS for RHP vs. LHP) are slightly better than 2007 (.198 difference), but his overall numbers have declined.

Gutierrez may have the best range and arm of any outfielder on the team, but his defensive prowess doesn’t even come close to negating his offensive shortcomings. For comparison, Francisco has 1.6 Fielding Win Shares and 7.0 Batting Win Shares for a total of 8.6 Win Shares in 2008. Gutierrez has 1.9 Fielding Win Shares (not as large a margin as I expected), but only 1.5 Batting Win Shares for a total of 3.4 Win Shares for 2008. The same argument can be applied to Choo, who has 7.8 and .8 respective Win Shares (8.6 total) on the season.

Unless he finishes the season strong or stays on as the fourth outfielder, the 25 year old Gutierrez may end up as an odd man out on the 2009 roster.

Rounding out the offensive surge is Jhonny Peralta, who continues to roll right along with a .330 AVG, .897 OPS, and 4 HR in August (yawn). Asdrubal Cabrera has cooled down considerably since his promotion, but has held his own at second base with a .250, .333, .395 line. As long as AstroCab brings that slick glove to work everyday, I can definitely live with that kind of offense out of the nine hole. Wedge and company have to be pleased with the progress Cabrera has made after working on his swing and conditioning in Buffalo.

On Maple Bats

This article is a little old, but it’s still the best summary I’ve found on the ash vs. maple bat debate. Amy Nelson (one of the few really good baseball writers on hand at ESPN) interviewed people from the bat making industry and current players to get their thoughts on the matter. It’s a very informative article, so check it out if you missed it earlier.

One of the more interesting quotes described the difference in feel between ash and maple:

Holman says there isn't a larger hitting area on maple bats. Schapp adds that the specs are exactly the same for both woods and that neither one has proven to hit balls any farther than the other. But Angels center fielder Torii Hunter said the only time he used a maple bat (for the month of April this season), he felt the difference in how hard the maple wood made contact with the ball. “It feels like a car crash at full speed," Hunter said. "It's like you killed the ball. [They're] a little more powerful.”

If both types of wood are cut in the same shape, but one type of wood has a tendency to break much more violently, why not just alter the shape of the bat so it’s less likely to shatter with such force? Bat makers try and shave off as much weight as possible in their design, but it appears (at least to me) that the use of maple in these super skinny, lightweight bats isn’t a very good idea from a safety standpoint.

I’ve seen enough bat shards fly past a pitcher’s head to know the potential damage a shattered bat could do. I think MLB should move to ban certain bat shapes depending on the type of wood used. That way, hitters can still have that lack of “give” that comes from maple, but they would have to sacrifice some weight for safety reasons. Whatever the decision, MLB needs to sit down with representatives from the bat industry and the players union to come to a reasonable compromise soon (assuming they haven’t already).