No Masa?

Spring Training numbers typically don't mean much for veteran players. For reliever Masahide Kobayashi, an exceptionally poor showing this spring has placed his future with Cleveland in a precarious position. Kobayashi has been rocked just about every time he's taken the mound this offseason, surrendering 8 earned runs on 11 hits in only five innings of work. Masa's 14.40 ERA is by far one of the worst among the Tribe's returning relief pitchers and is only a few tenths of a point better than Tomo Ohka's (he was cut last week). In fact, the only reliever with a worse Spring ERA and at least four IP is Eddie Mujica and I don't like his chances of making the team despite being out of minor league options.

ERA isn't everything in March though, just ask team ace Cliff Lee, proud owner of a freshly minted Cy Young award and an 18.89 ERA in his 6.2 innings so far. What's put Kobayashi in Wedge's doghouse is how ineffective he has looked during camp. Some pitchers get rocked because they're trying to practice a certain pitch against live batters, like Lee and his intentionally fastball-heavy outing against Texas. Others display good velocity or action on their pitches, but don't quite have the complete package ready for Opening Day. Those pitchers typically don't have to deal with much additional pressure from the coaching staff.

I haven't had a chance to see Masa throw this offseason, but the few reports I've heard mention some minor inconsistencies with his delivery and a difficulty in keeping the ball down in the zone. With so many pitchers vying for work in the exhibition games, Kobayashi hasn't had much of an opportunity to act on what pitching coach Carl Willis and company are telling him. Even if Masa's five innings were ugly, they're still only five innings.

Fortunately for Kobayashi, he still has a lot of time to make adjustments during this year's extended Spring Training. As the Major League roster continues to get trimmed there should also be more opportunities for Masa as well. A strong rebound over the final 12 Cactus League games against increasingly more difficult lineups (starters will begin to see more at-bats as the season approaches) will go a long way in regaining some semblance of confidence in Kobayashi from Wedge.

It's still too early to decide Kobayashi's fate, but all he has to do is work out the kinks in his delivery over the next three weeks. He was guaranteed a roster spot heading in and I'd be surprised if Cleveland cut him from the team unless his pitching totally fell off a cliff. Even then, I think a more likely destination would be the disabled list to start the season.

Assuming Kobayashi is healthy (I have my doubts, but Masa says he's fine) his struggles in March are a legitimate concern. The whole point of Cleveland limiting him to six innings in the last two months of the 2008 season was so he'd be ready for 2009. Well, the 2009 season is almost here and Masa is still throwing like the same guy who posted a 10.32 ERA and 2.47 WHIP over 11.1 IP after the All Star break (small sample size, I know, but those numbers are still pretty representative of how bad he actually was). I still believe that Masa just ran out of steam in the second half of last season. I don't even think there was a serious injury involved, Kobayashi just seemed fatigued half-way through his first Major League season.

Regular readers are probably familiar with my take on Kobayashi by now and I'm still very confident that the transition between NPB and MLB is at the root of Kobayashi's struggles. The NPB regular season has only 144 games compared to the 162 for MLB. Combine the longer season with more stressful outings because of the superior hitters and tougher lineups and you can see how the workload can pile up quickly on a 34 year old rookie.

It's possible Cleveland underestimated the toll this transition would take on Kobayashi over the course of an entire season given his age. I'm not sure there was any way Cleveland could have predicted Kobayashi's struggles though; he is the exception rather than the rule. Most Japanese pitchers who cross the pond do so late in their career, especially relievers. Hideo Nomo and Daisuke Matsuzaka are rare cases in that they began their Major League careers at a relatively young age (both were 26). Below are four Japanese pitchers who experienced at least modest success in the Majors.

Pitcher	Team	Season (Year)	Age	IP (GS)	SV	K/BB	ERA	WHIP	ERA+
S. Hasegawa	ANA	Rookie (1997)	28	116.7 (7)	0	1.80	3.93	1.40	119
	SEA	Best (2003)	34	73.0	16	1.77	1.48	1.09	291
		Career	--	720.3	33	1.68	3.71	1.32	124
Pitcher	Team	Season (Year)	Age	IP (GS)	SV	K/BB	ERA	WHIP	ERA+
K. Sasaki	SEA	Rookie (2000)	32	62.7	37	2.51	3.16	1.16	145
	SEA	Best (2002)	34	60.7	37	3.65	2.52	1.05	168
		Career	--	223.3	129	3.14	3.14	1.084	138
Pitcher	Team	Season (Year)	Age	IP (GS)	SV	K/BB	ERA	WHIP	ERA+
H. Okajima	BOS	Rookie (2007)	31	69.0	5	3.70	2.22	0.971	214
	BOS	Best (2007)	32	62.0	1	2.60	2.61	1.16	177
		Career	--	131.0	6	3.07	2.40	1.06	195
Pitcher	Team	Season (Year)	Age	IP (GS)	SV	K/BB	ERA	WHIP	ERA+
T. Saito	LAD	Rookie (2006)	36	78.3	24	4.65	2.07	0.906	217
	LAD	Best (2007)	37	64.3	39	6.00	1.40	0.715	327
	LAD	Career	--	189.7	81	4.71	1.95	1.19	229

Note that Shigetoshi Hasegawa was the only one to break into the Majors before the age of 30. Interestingly enough, Hasegawa went on to post his best overall season at the age of 34 resulting in an appearance in the All Star game and an ERA+ of 291. Kaz Sasaki and Takashi Saito debuted at ages 32 and 36 respectively and have multiple seasons as top-shelf closers on their resumes. Hideki Okajima developed into an elite setup man for Boston in his rookie season and boasts a 2.14 postseason ERA over 16 games. There is certainly a precedent for Japanese relievers achieving success at the Major League level after the age of 30.

The reason I was so excited about Masa's rookie season was because I thought Cleveland had landed an Okajima or a Sasaki; a veteran reliever whose dominance in the Nippon Pro league would translate well in the Majors. Kobayashi's 227 saves are the most all-time by a Japanese player (Sasaki has the second-most) and he finished with a career 2.79 ERA over nine seasons. Kobayashi's career in Japan was every bit as good or better than the other relievers listed above. But unlike his fellow Japanese All Stars, Masa was merely average with the Tribe. Why did Masa struggle where similar Japanese rookies thrived?

Pitcher	Age	IP	SV	K/BB	ERA	WHIP	ERA+
M. Kobayashi	34	55.7	6	2.50	4.53	1.41	98

Even though each Japanese rookie had to deal with a similar increase in innings, Masa was the only one who failed to reach at least 60 innings, having only been effective for about 50 innings. It's difficult to say how much of this can be corrected the second time around through better conditioning and an improved knowledge of how the full season tends to play out. This is why Kobayashi's lackluster spring is such a concern. The team gave shut him down last season with the expectation that he would be ready to go for 2009, but this has not been the case. Instead, Kobayashi is still exhibiting some of the symptoms he suffered from before, although minor improvements have supposedly been made as of late.

According to Manager Eric Wedge, "this is a time when you need to see some performance to have an idea of what you can count on." Wedge is expecting to see significant improvement out of Masa heading into April or he may have to start drawing up a contingency plan. Eating Kobayashi's $3 million, guaranteed contract is certainly a possibility for Cleveland.

Aaron Fultz was owed $1.5 million entering the 2008 season, but was cut from the team in mid-March. Fultz surrendered 11 ER, 16 H, and 3 BB in 8 1/3 IP during Spring Training and looked so bad the team decided to pay him not to pitch for them. Given that Kobayashi's contract is worth twice as much and there is still a lot of time for evaluation before the season starts, I don't think the team has seriously considered cutting him yet.

I think the best approach would be to give Masa as much time as possible to improve and leave him on the 25-man roster to start the season. If he gets shelled in April and May with little hope of improvement, then the team should set him loose. They're on the hook for the $3 mil either way, so they might as well see what they have by testing him in meaningful innings first. While seeing the $3 million get flushed away would be disappointing, Masa's replacement would likely be playing for a minimum salary.

With all the talented relievers waiting in the minors, Cleveland could receive a significant upgrade to their bullpen and only have to pay another $400,000. Some of these prospects have a real shot at sticking in the Majors right now.

My pick for an early call-up to replace Kobayashi is Tony Sipp. Sipp appears to be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and had a stellar showing in camp. The 24 year-old southpaw gave up only 3 H and 1 ER with 5 K and no walks over 4 IP, earning loads of praise from the coaching staff. Sipp has long been a highly touted prospect in the Tribe's system and word on the street is that he could make a positive impact in Cleveland. Kobayashi wasn't going to see any high-leverage innings anyway, so slotting in a rookie instead would leave the bullpen hierarchy intact.

I tend to view Sipp in a similar lens to Adam Miller in that they're both high-ceiling flamethrowers who have been derailed by injuries. Miller was a lock for the final spot in the bullpen, but complications with a finger ligament in his throwing hand have put his entire career in doubt. If Miller were healthy, now would have been the time to test him in the Majors. Now that Sipp is healthy, should the team afford him a similar opportunity? Maybe not, since Sipp was reassigned to the minors in the last round of cuts. I think he proved that he is healthy though and impressed enough people to be on the short list in case an extra reliever is suddenly needed.

Assuming the team breaks camp with seven relievers, Zach Jackson appears to be the leading candidate for the final spot as a long man, rounding out a pen that includes Kerry Wood, Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis, Joe Smith, Rafael Betancourt, and Kobayashi.

Scouting the FA Closers

As you probably know by now, Cleveland is shopping for a closer this off-season. The Tribe is looking to either sign or trade for an established closer, although their budget is not entirely clear. I felt that the best combination of reliability, experience, and value on the free agent market was Trevor Hoffman, which you can read about here. Cleveland supposedly talked with Hoffman, Fuentes, Rodriguez, and Jason Isringhausen. I was originally going to do a list of free agents and trade targets, but I think I’ll just round out the free agents Cleveland has an interest in and pick up on any trade rumors after the winter meetings (in case you were wondering, Matt Capps is at the top of my wish-list on that front).

2.) Kerry Wood

2008 Team: Cubs
Age: 31
Previous Contract: 1 yr / $4.2 mil (2008), plus up to $3.45 mil for performance bonuses

Player	SV (%)	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA+	H/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB
K. Wood	34 (85.0%)	66.1	3.26	1.09	137	7.33	2.44	11.40	4.67

As much as I hyped up Trevor Hoffman earlier, I think I’d be pretty happy if the team went with Kerry Wood instead. Wood is an interesting option considering he has 10 MLB seasons under his belt, but just completed his first as a closer. After logging 174, 213, and 211 innings as a starter from 2001 to 2003, Wood struggled to stay healthy. Between 2004 and 2006, Wood suffered from an array of injuries and underwent surgery on his knee and rotator cuff. The Cubs finally decided to try and conserve Wood's electric arm by converting him to a reliever in 2007. The relief stint got off to a rough start as Wood spent most of the season battling elbow issues (he did not return to Chicago until August). Wood expressed a strong preference to stay in Chicago, taking an incentives based $4.2 million dollar contract after filing for free agency after the 2007 season.

Wood would have been the perfect Shapiro project a year ago; battered by injuries with a high payoff when healthy. Wood's 2008 run as the Cubs closer jump-started the former ace's career and probably put him in line for a hefty raise. Wood officially hit the open market Monday after the Cubs declined to offer him arbitration. The Cubs have made it clear they are moving on without Wood, even though he has offered to take a one year deal to stay with the team. Chicago balked at Wood's supposed $9+ million salary and have already anointed Carlos Marmol as closer.

Wood's value significantly increased after 2008 due to his success as closer and the fact that he was able to stay healthy for the entire season. The only major setback for Wood was in July when he suffered from a blister on his right index finger and was placed on the 15-day DL. Wood isn't exactly a veteran closer, but he is a veteran starter. He has already proven that he has the mentality to handle the closer role and is a seasoned playoff pitcher. His 85.0% save percentage last year was comparable to elite closers like Joe Nathan (86.6%) and B.J. Ryan (88.8%).

Despite owning the lowest save percentage and highest ERA between Fuentes and Rodriguez, I would take Wood if all I had to go by were the numbers. Wood’s ERA was inflated by a few bad outings, particularly in July when he was probably trying to work around a blister on one of his throwing fingers. Other than the three isolated appearances where he gave up three runs and a bad stretch in September where he surrendered 7 runs in 3.1 innings, Wood was very reliable. He may have blown six saves, but three of those came before May 2. After that, all Wood did was rack up consecutive saves.

Wood’s H/9 rate was slightly higher than K-Rod and Fuentes, but Wood’s outstanding combination of a 2.44 BB/9 rate and 11.40 K/9 rate really puts him ahead of the competition. Even though he gave up more hits, Wood had the best WHIP, K/BB ratio, and HR/9 rate of the three. Wood’s combination of strikeouts and precision place him ahead of pack in terms of overall pitching ability and I feel that his numbers are fairly sustainable. Several stats seem likely to regress based strictly on Wood’s career totals, although I’m not sure it’s fair to directly compare his time as a starter to that as a reliever. If you consider Wood’s ability as a starter and remove all the pitfalls of starting (late inning fatigue, loss of focus, multiple ABs per batter, etc.) it seems very reasonable to think that Wood would see a significant improvement in performance if all of his effort were distilled down to just one or two innings per outing.

If Wood can stay healthy this season, there’s a strong chance he’ll be a lights-out closer.

While I'm not sure about the exact amount, I think his price per year will fall between Fuentes and Hoffman. I don't see him giving other teams the option of a one year deal like he offered to Chicago (that was motivated more by his own desire to stay in Chicago than anything else). If I were Wood's agent I would advise him to seek a three to four year deal given that this is his first real venture as a free agent and his history of injury. The 31 year old Wood may not have another shot at a big, multi-year contract depending on how his body holds up. It's not clear how heavily teams are weighing Wood's prior injuries (no pun intended), but if other GMs hesitate to sign him to three or four years Cleveland may step in with the next best thing.

Considering how important it is that Cleveland's closer be a consistent presence (read, healthy) this season, I'm not sure Wood is the best choice for Cleveland. Still, K-Rod has been deflecting rumors about the condition of his arm this off-season, while Trevor Hoffman is 41 years old. It’s tough to tell where Cleveland would rank Wood in terms of injury risk (you can bet someone is poring over his latest physical and 2008 tapes though). Personally, I think I’d take a chance on Wood if he could be had for a reasonable contract.

I could see Cleveland offering a two year guaranteed contract at $6-8 million per year, plus a team option, with another $2-3 million in incentives based on appearances and DL stints. Again, the market will likely dictate whether Wood ends up considering anything less than three years at $9-10 million per. Texas is rumored to be pretty high on Wood and has a history of burning money in free agency, so expect some stiff competition to drown out concerns about Wood's past injuries.

3.) Brian Fuentes

2008 Team: Colorado
Age: 33
Previous Contract: 1 yr / $5.05 mil (2008)

Player	SV (%)	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA+	H/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB
B. Fuentes	30 (88.2%)	62.2	2.73	1.10	168	6.75	3.16	11.78	3.73

Fuentes appears to be the Mets’ primary target right now. Based on Fuentes' scheduled meeting with the Mets in Vegas and how desperate New York is for a closer to replace the ailing Billy Wagner, I'd say Fuentes will be off the market before the Winter Meetings conclude. While Cleveland did express an interest in Fuentes, I don't see them getting into a bidding war with the Mets (never a good idea).

Fuentes managed to have the best season of his career in 2008 despite logging over half his innings in the Major’s third best hitters park (Coors Field). Below are his home/away splits for the past three seasons:

Brian Fuentes 2008 Season Splits

Location	Year	IP	ERA	WHIP	SLGA	K/BB
Home	2006	34.2	3.63	1.21	.410	4.44
	2007	31.1	1.72	0.83	.292	3.00
	2008	33.1	3.51	1.29	.357	4.80
Away	2006	30.2	3.23	1.11	.324	1.94
	2007	30.0	4.50	1.43	.350	2.13
	2008	29.1	1.84	0.89	.210	3.40

Finding success in Colorado as a pitcher is no easy task. You either face a thin-aired, slugger’s paradise at home or a foreign, hostile environment on the road. I guess it’s not that surprising that Fuentes’ home and away splits tend to fluctuate each year. I expected his ERA and SLGA to heavily favor his time at Coors, but if you take the past three seasons as a whole, there seems to be a rough equilibrium. In 2006, Fuentes posted similar numbers at home (3.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) and away (3.23 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). In 2007, he dominated batters at home (1.72 ERA, 0.83 WHIP), but got roughed up to the tune of a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road. In his walk year, the splits reversed: stellar away (1.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP), significantly less so at home (3.51 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).

Even Fuentes’ slugging against (SLGA) follows this pattern, although you’d expect opposing batters to consistently collect more extra base hits against him at Coors Field than in most other stadiums.

Fuentes’ overall performance as Colorado’s closer has been pretty solid, averaging 62.8 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 155 ERA+ over the past three seasons (his 78.7 save percentage represents some really shaky stretches in ’06 and ’07 though). The main thing I was curious about was if Fuentes would see a significant improvement in performance once he got away from Coors Field. Based on a rough analysis of his splits, I don’t think he’ll see any major improvements in the future, at least not due to a change of address. I don’t see Fuentes’ value slipping very much, but his 2008 season will probably go down as a career year for him.

Again, as long as his contract remains reasonable (unlikely) then Fuentes will provide an experienced, quality arm, but probably won’t meet the Mets’ expectations as closer based on his inability to dominate in high leverage situations on a consistent basis (career 80.0 SV%)

4.) Francisco Rodriguez

2008 Team: Anaheim
Age: 26
Previous Contract: 1 yr / $10 mil (2008)

Player	SV (%)	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA+	H/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB
F. Rodriguez	62 (89.8%)	68.1	2.24	1.29	198	7.11	4.48	10.14	2.26

I’m probably going to get torched for ranking Rodriguez near the bottom...oh well (not that my made-up “ranking” system ever meant anything).

The market seems to have cooled on Rodriguez and his record 62 saves. At one point, Rodriguez was seeking Mariano Rivera money (you know, 1.40 ERA, .66 WHIP, 39 saves for the umpteenth time in his career…that Rivera), or around $15 million a year on a long term contract. Amazingly, no one appears to have taken the bait and the hype surrounding Rodriguez is dim heading into the Winter Meetings.

Except for a 2.24 ERA and 62 saves, Rodriguez was only average in a direct comparison to Wood, Fuentes, and Hoffman. Rodriguez actually had the worst WHIP and K/BB ratio, which doesn’t make sense when paired with his sparkling ERA. At first glance, it looks like Rodriguez had quite a bit of luck on his side to allow so many baserunners with minimal damage. Let’s peel back another layer here:

2008 Closer FIPs

B. Fuentes: 2.24
K. Wood: 2.32
F. Rodriguez: 3.22
T. Hoffman: 3.99

Rodriguez’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is nearly a full point higher than Wood and Fuentes, which suggests he was getting a significant boost from his team’s defense and other factors beside his performance on the mound. Would Rodriguez be able to duplicate his 89.8 save percentage without improving his WHIP and BB/9 rate next season? Probably not.

Speaking of walks, 2008 marks the second consecutive season Rodriguez has seen his BB/9, H/9, and HR/9 rates rise, while his K/9 rate dropped. The rising walk rates and apparent decline in control may be a sign of some early wear and tear in Rodriguez’s throwing arm. Regardless of why these issues are popping up for the 26 year old flamethrower, allowing an exponential amount of baserunners and taters each year is going to catch up with him at some point (probably sooner than later if his K rate fails to rebound).

Another issue that may be causing reluctance amongst GMs is Rodriguez’s declining velocity. I wouldn’t have thought to look it up before (the kid throws hard), but Rodriguez has lost at least a MPH off his fastball every year since 2006. Rodriguez threw his heater 56% of the time with an average speed of 94.8 MPH. In 2008, he had cut back on his fastball usage by 5.3% and had an average speed of 91.9 MPH. The same can be said of his slider, which lost 4.6 MPH since 2006. To compensate, Rodriguez threw nearly twice as many changeups in 2008 as he had in the past.

Normally, a 26 year old whose fastball is his bread and butter wouldn’t have to compensate for lost velocity by mixing in a new pitch. It’s not the combination of the pitches so much as the timing (plus the declining K/BB rate). If I were talking to K-Rod’s agent about a long-term deal, that would be a major point of concern for me.

So why am I digging into Rodriguez when there are plenty of other flawed closers on the market? Well, I felt that Rodriguez was severely overrated in 2008 (Cy Young, are you kidding me?) and find it interesting how his breaking the saves record seemed to overshadow a few red flags (like the persistent drop in velocity). Anaheim has never been afraid to spend to retain a player. You have to wonder, what did they see that caused them to pass on Rodriguez?

Basically, I feel sorry for the team that signs Rodriguez to a four or five year deal because I think they’ll be lucky to get two good years out of him. Then again, maybe the abundance of closers and lack of spare change will see some GMs (not to name anybo-Sabean) show a bit of restraint this off-season.

No matter how scouts are interpreting the above trends, Rodriguez is one of the most important free agents this winter (Sabathia and Teixeira are the others), since he will set the precedent for every reliever’s contract after him.

And no, I don’t think Cleveland will make him a serious offer.

5.) Jason Isringhausen

2008 Team: St. Louis
Age: 35
Previous Contract: 3 yrs / $25.75 mil (2005-07), plus $8 mil club option (2008)

Player	SV (%)	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA+	H/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB
Isringhausen	12 (41.67%)	42.2	5.70	1.64	78	10.12	4.64	7.59	1.64

After seeing his name on the list of pitchers Cleveland is talking to, I was forced to take a closer look at Izzy. Overall, I think a return to form is a definite possibility for Isringhausen. I wouldn’t bet the bullpen on it, but certainly possible. That said, I hope Shapiro views Isringhausen as a sort of last resort (including trades) in case the market goes totally nuts or something.

Isringhausen is currently rehabbing from September elbow surgery to repair a torn tendon in his throwing arm. He should be 100% healthy by the time Spring Training arrives. The veteran closer will have plenty of motivation after suffering through his worst season since 1999 when he was traded from the Mets to the Athletics mid-season. His 2008 campaign was derailed by a series of injuries including a hand laceration (kids, don't punch a tv after you blow a save; water coolers are a much cheaper alternative), knee strain, tendonitis, and the torn tendon. To add insult to injury, Izzy had his closer status revoked (twice). Isringhausen probably would have retired if he had reached his goal of 300 saves last season (he needs seven more).

I'm convinced Isringhausen's ugly season can be blamed solely on his injuries and he could be a fairly productive closer in 2009. The trouble is, most of Isringhausen's past struggles were caused by injury issues. He got off to a terrible start in 2006 as well. After an erratic season, he finally succumbed to a hip injury in early September and was left off the Cardinal's post season roster (Adam Wainwright closed out the World Series victory). A newly repaired Isringhausen went on to have a career year in 2007, posting a 2.48 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 32 saves (93.7%) in 65.1 IP. Over his age 31-34 seasons (2004-2007), Isringhausen averaged 64.4 IP, 162 ERA+, 1.19 WHIP, 2.07 K/BB ratio, and an 84.8 save percentage (a couple good seasons, one great one, and one with a major injury, seems about right). At worst, Isringhausen is a top 15 closer (actually, at worst he's a top 15 closer on the DL) and at best he's a top 5. Which Izzy is going to show up in 2009? No idea.

Isringhausen is kind of like a watered down Kerry Wood (minus the filthy K rate): when he's healthy he can be very productive, but the risk of injury tends to run high. However, if I had to choose one injury prone closer over another, Wood is the obvious choice. One benefit of signing Isringhausen is that he'll probably have one of the friendliest free agent contracts of 2009. After expressing his desire to pitch again Isringhausen described his next contract as an "incentive-based thing." Izzy would make sense as a depth signing, but not as the full-time closer. Since he has clearly stated he wants to close, Isringhausen won't be signing with Cleveland.

All contract information was taken from Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Trevor Time?

Many apologies to any esteemed readers who may have stopped by in search of an update in the last two months. I haven’t made a blog post for quite some time due to my new job and subsequent change of residence. Fortunately (or not, depending on what you think of the blog), I have a working internet connection again, but it seems I have some catching up to do on the state of the Tribe and the Hot Stove League. I’ll try not to repeat too much of what’s already been covered by other writers lately, but I do have a few topics I’d like to cover regardless.

Cleveland’s shopping list this offseason has two big items right at the top, in bold letters, underlined, and highlighted: a closer and either a second or third baseman. Despite a strong showing by Jensen Lewis in the final month of 2008 and Kerry Wood impersonator Adam Miller waiting in the wings, the Tribe has placed a priority on bringing in an experienced reliever to man the ninth. I went into detail in a previous post how the bullpen had some cracks in it heading into 2008 and still feel strongly that a lack of a solid contingency plan for when Borowski would inevitably fall off the cliff cost the team a pretty sizable chunk of wins.

I do think Betancourt will bounce back, with positive contributions from Perez, Lewis, and a couple fresh arms (Miller, Sipp, Meloan?), but I wouldn’t feel comfortable handing the closer gig to anything less than a proven commodity in 2009. The fact that Cleveland has three potential closers in Lewis, Perez, and Miller is great, but their services are needed elsewhere. Its one thing to draw on the bullpen depth in a pinch (injuries, etc.), but I think it would be a mistake to not take advantage of a deep free agent class. The team dug itself a steep hole last season while they were scrambling to find a replacement closer in-house; that can’t happen again.

GM Mark Shapiro made it clear that he would not make the same mistake twice and is determined to acquire a legit anchor for the bullpen who won’t end up sinking the ship (although Borowski was more like a torpedo…).

So who has Cleveland been talking to? Apparently, everyone:

"If there's a back-end bullpen alternative out there, then we're going to explore it," general manager Mark Shapiro told MLB.com.

Shapiro has reportedly been talking to agents for several relief pitchers, but the only two that have been confirmed by the GM as targets are Trevor Hoffman and Jose Valverde (via trade). After that, a whole slew of whispered names pop up in connection with Cleveland.

I’ve compiled a list of the top six relievers I would like Cleveland to pursue via free agency or trade, loosely ranked by how likely their acquisition is. I’m running a little short on time heading into my Turkey Day road trip, so the rest of the list will show up in my next post. Today I’d like to focus on the pitcher who I think is most likely to sign with Cleveland.

1.) Trevor Hoffman

2008 Team: San Diego
Age: 41
Previous Contract: 2 yr / $13.5 mil (2006-07), plus $7.5 mil option (2008)

There were two closers that I didn’t think would hit the market this off-season: one was Kerry Wood, the other was Trevor Hoffman. After the turbulent San Diego front office bungled negotiations by low-balling their longest tenured player, Hoffman opted to take his 554 career saves elsewhere.

Cleveland has shown early interest in Hoffman and has had experience dealing with him before. Hoffman nearly came to Cleveland three years ago before re-signing with San Diego (the fact that he had spent 13 years with SD and was still on good terms with their GM back then makes that near-miss very significant in rumored negotiations now). In a recent MLB.com interview, Hoffman showed no preference in his next destination:

"I'm absolutely open to anything," said Hoffman. "National League, American League, just something that's a good fit in a number of arenas. A lot of it is going to depend on what teams come into play."

I think Cleveland could easily sign Hoffman if that’s the direction they want to go in. Hoffman appears to be the best fit in terms of a proven track record, length of contract, and salary. A 1-2 year deal for around $7-8 million annually seems like a reasonable estimate based on his previous contract. There’s a possibility that a chunk of that could be incentives based, but since Hoffman did not miss significant time due to injury in 2008 that seems less likely.

Hoffman only threw 45.1 innings in 2008 after posting at least 50 in 15 of his 17 seasons (the last time he failed to reach this mark was 2003, where he only had 9 IP due to injury). This is due to a lack of save opportunities on a bad team and the fact that San Diego was trying to pace Hoffman’s innings. While reliable, Hoffman would have to be treated somewhat cautiously over the course of a season and would probably have to take the occasional save opportunity off depending on how his arm feels. Given the team's projected bullpen depth, I don't see this being much of an issue. Hoffman did not miss any significant time due to injury last season. He was day-to-day in May with arm soreness and had arthroscopic surgery after the season to remove a few bone chips from his throwing elbow.

The Tribe has several young arms in the pipeline and having Hoffman there for a couple seasons to hold down the fort and mentor his heir apparent would be an ideal development timeline. Three seasons ago, I would have been absolutely stoked to have Trevor Hoffman suit up with the Tribe. Based on his 2008 performance though, I can’t help but be wary of relying on Hoffman to captain the bullpen in 2009.

Hoffman didn’t have a particularly bad season, but there was clearly some regression occurring. It’s hard to critique a guy who hadn’t blown back-to-back save opportunities for 11 years before last season. There were a few interesting trends in 2008 though.

The first thing that jumped out at me was how many homeruns Hoffman gave up last year. Hoffman saw his HR/FB ratio jump to 13.8%, a 7.6% increase from his career total. Considering Hoffman logged 65.7% of his innings at a home field with the most pitcher friendly park rating in the Majors last year (.796, where 1.000 is neutral), this was a surprise. In fact, Hoffman gave up all but one of his eight homeruns at home, where he posted a 4.25 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 29.2 IP. His performance on the road seems better at first glance (2.87 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 15.2 IP), but his K/BB rates (5.40 home to 4.75 road) are similar while his WHIP and BAA increase by 0.27 and .047 respectively. Hoffman got hit harder at home, but he allowed fewer baserunners as well.

I’m not sure what to make of Hoffman’s longball numbers, but they seem a little flukey to me. While Hoffman’s K/BB ratio of 5.11 was better than his career average of 3.85, his hits per 9 IP were not especially high compared to previous seasons either, so no Byrd Effect here. He did get hit harder than in previous years though. Hoffman has a career SLGA (slugging against) of .340, a number that has increased over the past three seasons at .316, .358, and .394 from 2006 to 2008.

Normally, a pitcher who starts to get smacked around more will see a drop in velocity or control, but Hoffman’s average velocity has held steady the past four seasons (85.2 mph FB, 80.9 mph SL, 74.1 mph CB, 73.9 mph CH). Hoffman has had great success working with these pitch velocities in the past and I don't see any reason for his approach to suddenly hit the fan. As I mentioned earlier, Hoffman's K/BB and H/9 ratios are strong compared to previous seasons, so he does not appear to be suffering from control issues on the surface.

Hoffman’s overall numbers in 2008 are heavily weighted towards a poor first half, particularly in April (6.52 ERA, 9.2 IP) and June (6.48 ERA, 8.1 IP). Before the All Star break, Hoffman posted a 5.08 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 17 saves in 28.1 IP, while after the break he had a 1.59 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 13 saves in 18 IP. This isn’t to excuse the two crappy months earlier in the season, but I would have expected a (*ahem*) more experienced arm like Hoffman’s to wear down in the second half, not get stronger. Of course, the opposite happened in 2007 when he posted a 1.91 ERA before and a 4.44 ERA after the break. I was going to make a nifty point about how Hoffman still displays durability late in the season, even at age 41, but the two seasons contradict themselves. So yeah, never mind….

I’m not sure what to make of Hoffman for 2009. I’m not particularly worried about his occasional bad months translating into more consistent, um, inconsistency. Every pitcher hits a few rough patches, which tend to get amplified due to the small sample sizes available for relievers. I'm not too worried about his homerun totals either, since he has given up 6+ in a season a few times before. Also, five of the eight against him came in his two ugly months (May and June), but gave up no more than one homer in any other month. The homerun trend did not dog him throughout the season, which is a good sign.

What I am worried about is how his SLGA has been steadily increasing in an extremely pitcher friendly park. Even if I'm misinterpreting some of the other stats, I think the rising SLGA is a valid concern. I’m also slightly concerned about how he’s never pitched in the American League before, but I’m not sure relievers see their numbers inflate as much as starters making the move since they only have to face a handful of batters as opposed to an entire AL lineup three to four times.

Hoffman is far from fragile and has been very durable even after his rotator cuff surgery back in 2003. Is relying on the 41 year old Hoffman significantly less risky than the 37 year old Borowski was last season? Will he have more success than a player like Jensen Lewis? That’s something the Tribe will have to answer this off-season. Hoffman’s 554 saves and healthy track record set him far from the uncertainty that was associated with Borowski, in my opinion. I think regardless of how confident the team is in Lewis, Miller or who ever, they still have to sign a closer to mitigate the risk associated with using an unproven pitcher at closer.

The main reason I'm hesitant to totally endorse Hoffman is the mess with Borowski last year. I think if you were to remove that experience I might have a different view. It almost seems insulting to compare Hoffman to Borowski, but the risk of injury or fatigue is (was) there for both of them. Both were nearing the end of their careers, although Hoffman obviously has more of a reputation (that's an understatement). Both entered free agency after having a good year, where Borowski posted a 3.75 ERA and 36 saves with Florida. Plus there's the whole speech I made about not taking such a big risk at closer. I'm just not sure how to properly represent the degree of risk (if it were strictly financial this would be easy) associated with Hoffman right now.

Several of the top free agent closers have their own baggage as well. Kerry Wood’s injury history is well known. Fuentes may end up not being much better than Hoffman, but will probably cost a lot more for longer. Even Rodriguez has questions regarding his velocity and endurance at this stage of his career.

The bottom line for any closer is earning the save and Hoffman did that as well or better than any of the other free agents I just mentioned. Hoffman’s 86.7 save percentage matches up well with Rodriguez (89.8%), Fuentes (88.2%), and Wood (85.0%) in 2008 (a down year for Hoffman and a career year for everyone else, what does that tell you?). In that regard, Hoffman may end up as the best value on the relief market this year (seriously, K-Rod is going to end up with a fat, long term contract somewhere and he was only slightly more efficient at doing his job than Hoffman last year).

I have no idea how high Hoffman is on Shapiro’s white board. Based on what I know about Hoffman's health and effectiveness compared to other top closers last season, I would feel comfortable signing him. I know Cleveland wants to move quickly on locking up a closer if possible, so they can allocate funds towards settling the infield. If the price for Fuentes or Wood becomes too steep, Hoffman will quickly become the most appealing free agent for the Tribe.

Bull***

A lot of things have gone wrong for the Tribe this season. The heart of the order has spent most of the season on the disabled list. Injuries to the starting rotation have given way to open tryouts. Many of these blips you just can't build into the off-season shopping list. Every time I go through the long list of things that have gone haywire though, I keep getting hung up on the bullpen.

The bullpen is tricky because on one hand it appeared strong in the off-season and you can only dump so much money into what would likely amount to insurance policies. On the other hand, it should have been obvious to the experts in the Front Office (not so much to me as I'm obviously not an expert on anything) that some of the pillars holding up the relief corps were baring a few cracks.

Cleveland's bullpen was one of the best in the Majors last year and boasted a 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 49 saves. Betancourt had a career year and was the undisputed king of the 8th inning. Rookies Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis made an impact in the late innings and seemed primed to contribute in 2008. I personally hyped up the arrival of Masahide Kobayashi as a key addition for 2008 based on his experience as a closer in Japan. The Front Office was very familiar with the volatility of relief pitching, but the pros appeared to outweigh the cons with the Tribe's bullpen core heading into 2008.

Like every off-season, risk assessment is a big part of deciding how heavily to lean on certain players and how much money to spend. Cleveland took a gamble with Joe Borowski's arm and it backfired; there's not much else to it. The team certainly didn't go in without a backup plan though, far from it. In fact, I advocated making Kobayashi the closer once Borowski went down (oops). Masa was added as depth for the pen and I feel that the Tribe got him as a backup in case a late inning role became vacant. Masa's backup role (speculation on my part) was never officially stated by the team, not that anyone expected them to say something like that with Borowski's name still at the top of the depth chart.

Borowski went down with a triceps strain in May and never regained his lost velocity (the velocity was down before, but the injury didn't help). Borowski saw three more save opportunities in June before being released July 1 (he ended up on a minor league contract with Boston, but has not contributed in the Majors again).

Cleveland's first line of defense in case of a Borowski implosion was Rafael Betancourt. Betancourt was the interim closer from late April to the end of May. Raffy didn't take well to the closer's role, but I think that was more reflective of his struggles in the entire first half than anything else. Betancourt posted a 6.38 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 4.33 K/BB ratio, and converted 4/6 saves over 14.1 IP during his initial foray into closing from April 24 to May 28.

I still think Betancourt has what it takes to be an effective closer, but it was a matter of the wrong guy at the wrong time in 2008. Betancourt's 6.00 ERA before the All Star break made it clear that he was not pitching at 100% and really wasn't a viable option for closer at the time. Granted, the team was desperate and probably just following their plan; somebody had to pitch the final inning with Borowski hurt.

Kobayashi was the primary closer from mid May to late July, but it soon became clear that the transition to the Majors and, more importantly, the career high in innings was taking its toll. Kobayashi posted a solid 3.05 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.54 K/BB ratio, and converted 5/7 save opportunities in 44.1 IP before the All Star break. Kobayashi has only exceeded 50 IP in his career three times in nine Pro Yakyu seasons ('01, '04, '06). It may be coincidental, but Masa's two highest season ERA's in Japan occurred when he pitched 52 (4.33 ERA) and 57 innings (3.90 ERA), respectively. I think these ERA spikes are notable in that Kobayashi owns a career ERA of 2.79 in the Pro Yakyu League.

As the 34 year old Kobayashi crept toward the 50 IP mark in his rookie season his pitches began to lose some of their effectiveness, resulting in more multi-run innings. Cleveland opted to cut Masa's innings in the second half from an average of 12.12 per month from April to July, to just 3 each in August and September.

It appears that Cleveland may have been banking too much on Betancourt and Kobayashi (assuming they viewed him as a major cog for 2008). I don't think it's a matter of hindsight either, since certain information was available during the off-season. One point that I had alluded to in a previous post was Betancourt's innings load last season.

After shattering his career high in IP of 67.7 (2005) by 21.6 (includes post season) and throwing so many high leverage, stressful innings in 2007, common sense would dictate that something had to give.

I'm not talking about a typical regression (that was already obvious given Raffy's god-like numbers), I'm talking about a more drastic change be it a tired arm or more serious injury. Raffy's performance clearly shows something went wrong between 2007 and 2008. My theory is that he's had a nagging injury all season that was precipitated by his being the bullpen's workhorse last year. This would match up with reports of back stiffness and an obvious loss of control (career worst 2.52 K/BB ratio in 2008). I don't know how much concern Betancourt's 2007 work load caused the team, but it seems like Betancourt was supposed to be the key to the bullpen a second straight year.

Besides the announced back issue, I still can't pinpoint what may be bothering Betancourt. Considering the team signed him to a three year deal last winter, you'd think they'd have shut him down at this point in a lost season if he had a truly serious injury. Maybe he's not hurt and the best thing is for him to work out whatever control issues he's having, I honestly don't know.

There was risk in signing Kobayashi, although I'd be short-changing the team's scouts to suggest they didn't do their homework on the guy. Still the question of whether Masa would make a smooth transition to the Major Leagues must have been hanging over Cleveland's head as they finalized the bullpen for Opening Day. I feel that Masa made a successful adjustment to the Majors, but his season was derailed by fatigue in the end. Either way, Kobayashi did not fit the profile of an impact pitcher heading into 2008.

All these issues lead back to the need for a contingency plan at closer. With the team's two veteran setup men reeling, the team was left without enough quality arms to fill in for the 8th and 9th. Unfortunately, the team couldn't have Perez toss a two inning save every time (although old-school closers like Goose Gossage often did), since he was already being heavily utilized everywhere but the 9th. The bullpen ended up being spread too thin, despite apparent fail-safes meant to prevent such a severe collapse in the hierarchy.

So lesson one, the team really can't afford to leave the closer job up to anyone less than a proven, healthy pitcher for 2009. No closer by committee, no wait-and-see on a guy held together by duct tape, but a full time, established closer. This is easier said than done because truly reliable closers tend to be hard to come by.

It's been said before, but the closer role really is the anchor for the entire bullpen. Cleveland has to go into 2009 with that anchor or they'll encounter the same problems they've had this year.

The basic bullpen structure seems to revolve around five "core" pitchers who handle the bulk of the innings. Besides the closer and setup man, there tends to be a second, reliable reliever who covers the 7th-8th, a strong middle reliever who comes in to protect the lead, and a weaker middle reliever who comes in to eat innings and contain the damage when the team is behind. This is just the impression I got from checking out how other teams tend to structure their bullpen (more detail on this later).

With the army of relievers the Tribe has marched out this year, it may not seem like the bullpen really fits into this mold. Cleveland does have a potentially strong core of relievers who fit this archetype for 2009 though (yes, I realize my use of the word "potentially" is hypocritical to a degree, since I just got done preaching about how the team left too much to chance this year. I wasn't saying you can eliminate risk, but felt the team didn't place as much weight on certain factors as they should have in the past. Hopefully they are better prepared in 2009, even though financial and depth restraints are never easy to navigate).

Player	Role
Free Agent	Closer
R. Perez	Setup
R. Betancourt	7th-8th; top tier
J. Lewis	6th-8th; top tier
M. Kobayashi	7th-8th; mid tier
E. Mujica	Cleanup

This roster currently has a few assumptions built into it:

1.) Perez's numbers level out from his modest 2007 decline and he doesn't suffer any ill effects from an 80 inning season.

2.) Betancourt is 100% healthy again and reverts back to his career average performance. Raffy hasn't been dominant at all this season, but he has shown signs of progress with a 3.71 ERA in his last 26.2 IP compared to a 6.00 ERA in his previous 42.

3.) Lewis holds steady in his second full season. He may have struggled in June and July with a 6.87 ERA, but has an excellent 2.90 ERA in his last 31 IP. Lewis has also made a strong case for himself by going 12 for 12 in save opportunities during that stretch.

4.) Kobayashi significantly improves his endurance (this may be tough, given his age).

Those four players give Cleveland some good pieces to work with heading into the off-season, but there are still a few mines to traverse in that list, even with the optimistic outlook I have for 2009. I think in addition to the acquisition of a closer, a big boost for next season's bullpen will come out of the minor leagues.

A major strength of the pen in 2007 was the depth available in the minors, but outside of Mujica there just wasn't much available in 2008. I think that will change next season.

The bullpen absolutely has to be retooled for 2009 or this team isn't going anywhere. A team that goes into the playoffs, let alone the regular season, with a weak bullpen is just shooting itself in the foot before they even leave the starting line. Cleveland may have paid the price for having too much confidence in and/or overtaxing their relievers in 2007, but they will not be making the same mistakes twice.

In Part II, I'll break down some interesting minor league pitchers that may be ready to contribute to Cleveland's bullpen in 2009. I'll also take a look at the projected free agent market for closers.

Fun Fact

Jhonny Peralta became the first Indians shortstop to ever hit 20 homeruns and 40 doubles in a single season. - courtesy of STO

Fear of Commitment

Tribe fans have become accustomed to Manager Eric Wedge’s hard-nosed managing style over the years; once he gets an idea in his head, he tends to stick with it. Many of these ideas tend to work out fairly well, while others just leave fans scratching their heads. In a recent article on the team website titled Tribe Moves to Closer by Committee, the manager had this to say:

I look at it like we have four guys I feel comfortable using in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings," Wedge said. "Depending on matchup and availability, that's how we're going to play it out. I explained to Betancourt what I'm seeing and where he's at.

According to Wedge, Borowski will still be the team’s closer when he completes his two rehab assignments this month. The article reconfirmed Borowski’s role and that the closer rotation would only last until his return. Even though it’s only a short-term situation, I don’t understand why Wedge would use situational matchups to dictate who will close a game. This implies that none of the four candidates (Betancourt, Masa, Lewis, Perez) can be trusted to close out a game on their own. This type of attitude has occasionally left the better option (or higher ceiling) on the bench, while Wedge’s “favorite” gets the bulk of the playing time. Closer should be a more concrete role; a pitcher can either handle it or he can’t and this team has at least two viable, experienced candidates in-house.

At the outset, Betancourt was a lock for interim closer, leaving Masa to take over the primary set-up role. Betancourt has not been his usual, dominant self this season and showed some inconsistency when handed the closer role. In 10 innings, including his first two save opportunities, Betancourt gave up 4 earned runs (3.60 ERA). Since then, he has surrendered 9 earned runs over 5 innings, including three appearances where he was chased early (16.20 ERA). Raffy converted two consecutive save opportunities before giving up three earned runs in a non-save situation, followed by a blown save. The same scenario played out again: two saves, a 3 run meltdown, and a (technically) blown save. Betancourt had loaded the bases with one out in the ninth against Oakland. Wedge had seen enough at that point and pulled Betancourt for Kobayashi. Obviously, Betancourt was in trouble that night and Wedge didn’t want to lose the game just because Raffy was off his game. When was the last time Wedge pulled Borowski when he was in a rough spot though?

I think Betancourt’s sampling of poor performances has made Wedge more cautious with how he uses him. Another possibility is that Wedge is just trying to take some of the pressure off Betancourt while he works through his slump. Whatever the reasoning, I doubt Betancourt will be asked to close again any time soon. The Oakland game on April 15 was Betancourt’s last appearance. It’s a bit harsh, but moving Betancourt back to the 8^th inning seems like a good move; he either doesn’t have his best stuff right now or just doesn’t have the mentality to close (probably a little of both).

This brings us to Kobayashi, who has been outstanding so far. Kobayashi has posted a 3.20 ERA (it was 1.86 before the Dunn HR at Cincy), 1.16 WHIP, and 6.5 K/BB ratio. He is a veteran pitcher who has more practical experience as a closer than anyone else on the team (227 saves in Japan) and recorded two consecutive saves in lieu of Betancourt. Kobayashi is perfectly qualified to be the interim closer for a couple weeks, right? Then why does Wedge not trust Kobayashi enough to handle the duties on his own? That’s the impression I get when the phrase “closer by committee” is tossed out there; no single pitcher in the bullpen is good enough to close full-time.

With Betancourt essentially removed from closing and Kobayashi having to compete with a pitching platoon for the ninth inning, who will take over if Borowski goes down again? Borowski re-injuring his arm or continuing to be ineffective once healthy is a very real possibility. Cleveland does not seem to know who it will use to close if either of these scenarios plays out. Borowski at least deserves a shot to close again; the Tribe really doesn’t know what he’s capable of this season.

In the meantime, I think Kobayashi should be allowed to show what he’s capable of. As mentioned, Kobayashi is off to a solid start in transitioning to MLB. The next step should involve shifting him back into his former job as closer. Cleveland has other options for the future in Jensen Lewis and possibly Betancourt or Perez. Betancourt’s potential closer issues have been prominent lately, while Perez and Lewis are unknowns in the 9^th (granted, you have to find out sometime with young players, but these guys already see a lot of high leverage situations in the 7^th and 8^th, thus making significant contributions elsewhere). I feel the strongest and most logical candidate for closing in 2009 is Kobayashi though.

My theory from earlier was that Cleveland may have offered Kobayashi a chance to close at some point as a way to lure him to the team (pure speculation on my part). For now, that all depends on how he responds as interim closer and how many more opportunities he has this month. There's no need to work under a cloud of mystery in the bullpen, the decision should come down to either Borowski (health permitting) or Kobayashi (Borowski and performance permitting). It’s unclear how Wedge is going to manage the 9^th inning, but hopefully he does so with some foresight to the team’s needs.

Former Indian Sighting

I was pleasantly surprised to see Jody Gerut starting in center field for San Diego. Gerut was called up from the Triple-A affiliate in Portland in early May to replace Jim Edmonds. Jody’s off to a modest start, batting .216 with a .704 OPS, a homer, and a stolen base in 37 at-bats. I had no idea Gerut was still in baseball, let alone healthy again. Good for him though, I always liked Gerut, so hopefully he settles in with San Diego.

Iron Men: Tribe Starters Make History

There are two ways to approach a rampant offensive slump like the Tribe has been experiencing lately. The first option is to continue to be patient, rethink your approach as a hitter, and wait for the hits to come. The second option is to have your pitching staff mow down opposing batters like a game of RBI Baseball. Seriously, does anyone want to throw in a no-hitter while they’re at it?

Cleveland’s starting pitchers had tallied 44 1/3 scoreless innings before Aaron Laffey’s throwing error in the second inning against Oakland allowed a run to cross the plate (no discredit to Aaron, since the streak could have ended any moment and he's been outstanding in his last two starts). The streak began in the top of the sixth inning of Friday’s game against Toronto where Sabathia gave up a run in seven innings pitched. From there, all five starting pitchers threw a shut-out in regulation. These weren’t cheap wins either. These were dominant, K happy, complete game monstrosities against two contending teams. The fact that Paul Byrd struck out seven in a game to keep the streak alive should deserve some sort of trophy all by itself. The Tribe’s only loss came against Shawn Marcum, who matched Cliff Lee and forced extra innings. Here are the Tribe’s pitching performances over the last seven games:

Pitcher	Team Result	IP	H	ER	K	BB	Bullpen
C. Sabathia	W, 6-1	7.0	6	1	9	2	2 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K
A. Laffey	W, 12-0	7.0	6	0	2	1	2 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 3 K
F. Carmona	W, 3-0	9.0	5	0	3	4	DNP
C. Lee	L, 0-3 (10)	9.0	7	0	5	2	1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB
P. Byrd	W, 4-0	7.1	5	0	7	0	1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SV
C. Sabathia	W, 2-0	9.0	5	0	11	2	DNP
A. Laffey	W, 4-2	7.0	5	0	6	1	3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SV

That’s 50 1/3 innings with a 0.16 ERA for the starters and a 0.00 ERA for the bullpen excluding Betancourt over that span. This type of streak has occurred only a handful of times in the modern era, with the most recent example and all-time record credited to the 1974 Baltimore Orioles. The O’s starters threw 54 shutout innings from September 1-7, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Baltimore’s staff featured Jim Palmer, Mike Cuellar, Ross Grimsley, and Dave McNally.

The last Cleveland staff to do it belonged to the 1948 World Championship team, which finished the season with just 568 runs against. From August 15-20, Bob Lemon, Gene Bearden, Sam Zoldak, and Satchel Paige tossed 47 scoreless innings over four complete game shut-outs.

Someone needs to buy Carl Willis and Luis Issac a couple beers. Congratulations to the Indian’s pitching staff, as they have joined some truly rare company over the last seven games.

The defense also deserves some recognition, particularly AstroCab, Sizemore, and Gutz for making some ridiculous plays in support of their pitchers. As of May 15, Cleveland’s .833 RZR, 99 OOZ, and .988 FPCT rank 3^rd, 11^th, and 2^nd in the American League, respectively (ok, so the defense doesn’t have the best range, but at least they don’t make many mistakes once they get there).

Just a couple weeks ago, Cleveland was struggling to reach .500 and the White Sox were in first place. Cleveland now holds sole possession of first place, while Detroit sits six games back. Baseball’s funny that way.

Well, There's Your Problem...

My main concern before the pitching decided to go all Field of Dreams on everyone was the offense. How much did they contribute during the recent winning streak? Here’s a profile of the team’s last three series (10 games) and the quality of pitching they faced:

Opposition	Combined Starters' ERA	RPGA Starters	Team Bullpen ERA	RPGA Bullpen	CLE Total RPG
NYY (Pettitte, Wang, Mussina)	3.76	2.67	3.30	1	3.67
TOR (Halladay, McGowan, Burnett Marcum)	3.78	4	3.35	1.25	5.25
OAK (Duchscherer, Blanton, Smith)	2.96	2	2.96	1.33	3.33

While the Tribe didn’t exactly rough up the other teams pitchers, look at who they had to deal with on the mound. Toronto and Oakland have two of the strongest pitching staffs in the league right now and all they got from New York were an ace and two tough veterans. Not the likeliest time for an offensive surge, is it? I feel like a broken record whining about the offense this season, but it'll be interesting to see if the offense got a boost in confidence from the winning streak. I did read an article here that pointed to a possible downward trend throughout the AL. Below is an excerpt from the Baseball Prospectus article:

The AL's figure is highly unusual -- the AL hasn't seen run levels like this in 16 seasons. What's down in the AL?

		Rates through May 10, 2008, AL only
		Year	AVG	OBP	SLG
		2008	.257	.328	.392
		2007	.258	.330	.407
		2006	.269	.337	.432
		2005	.261	.334	.415

You should immediately notice the drop in slugging. From 2007 to '08 batting average has dropped by one point, but slugging has dropped by 15. This is in an environment with no new ballparks, and no radical changes to the existing ones. Over two years slugging is off by 40 points, isolated power by 28 points. At least OBP is moving in line with changes to batting average, which indicates that walk rates aren't the culprit for this cold spell at the plate. They've actually risen slightly, from 8.1 percent of PA in 2005 to 8.9 percent this year.

A few percentage points between 2007 and 2008 might not seem like much, but the impact can be significant when applied to the entire league. The article goes into more detail on possible explanations for the trend and is a worthy read.

Is Cleveland’s offense really that bad compared to rival AL teams? No, since every other AL team has seen a significant drop in runs per game this season.

Rank	2007 Team	2007 RPG*	2008 Team	2008 RPG^
1	NYY	5.98	BOS	5.02
2	DET	5.48	TEX	4.76
3	BOS	5.35	LAA	4.56
4	LAA	5.07	OAK	4.55
5	TEX	5.04	DET	4.55
6	CLE	5.01	TB	4.53
7	SEA	4.90	CWS	4.53
8	TB	4.83	MINN	4.44
9	BAL	4.67	CLE	4.25
10	TOR	4.65	NYY	4.17
*For entire 2007 season
^As of May 15, 2008

The decline has been so sharp, that the only 2008 teams that would crack the top ten in RPG for 2007 are Boston and Texas. Perennial offensive juggernaut, New York, has lost a full 1.81 runs off its average. Boston has lost .33 runs, while Detroit and Anaheim have lost .93 and .51 runs, respectively. Compared to those teams, Cleveland’s loss of .76 runs per game during an uncharacteristic slump doesn’t seem as bad.

If this trend continues and the AL is turning into a more pitching oriented league, that’s great news for the Tribe and their top-flight pitching staff. As long as the rest of the league struggles to score right along with them, Cleveland shouldn’t experience too many adverse effects in the standings from their current slump.