Tribe Pitching Falls Flat in Opening Week

Cleveland's pitching staff hasn't done much to disprove the idea that they could be the team's Achilles heel this season. In fact, the blame for three of the team's last four losses sits squarely on the shoulders of the pitchers. Simply losing five in a row to start the season was unnerving enough, but to see the team's biggest potential weakness establish itself so early is not a good sign. Even the supposedly sturdy bullpen has had its share of blowups, with Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis, and Kerry Wood all getting roughed up fresh out of Spring Training.

The shortcomings of the pitching staff puts the team's leadership in a difficult position. Obviously, it's far too early to be taking any drastic measures, but Wedge and Shapiro are no doubt thinking ahead as to what they'll do if this trend continues. Unfortunately, I don't think their contingency plan is meant to cover the entire pitching staff, so some of these guys have no choice but to suck it up and do their job next time out.

The real question is at what point should the team start to really worry if the pitching continues to be this inconsistent? I know it's only the first week of a long season and that everything is magnified since all eyes are on the small number of games that have actually been played. That doesn't make it any easier to watch. I can't fault the front office either, since I was cautiously optimistic about the rotation during Spring Training as well (perhaps more so than Shapiro himself).

The only player that I would be willing to pull the trigger on this early is Pavano, but even that isn't as simple as it seems. David Huff (5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 3 BB), Aaron Laffey (3.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB), and Kirk Saarloos (6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 1 BB) all came up short in their Columbus debuts, which leaves me guessing as to who could get called up as a replacement. Regardless of how bad it looked, Cleveland isn't going to cut a starter after just one game. Pavano was supposed to be part of a multi-pitcher attack to provide some (hopefully) quality innings until Westbrook returned, but it looks like that plan will backfire unless the "second wave" of arms is brought up sooner than anticipated. And don't think I'm going easy on Cliff Lee just because I hadn't mentioned him yet, he's got a lot of work to do to silence concerns that his terrible Spring Training was anything more than a meaningless blip on the radar.

The bottom line is that until the team has a larger body of work to go on, all they can do is continue to be prudent in how much slack they cut their pitchers and hope that Carl Willis and his coaching staff can find a solution to the individual struggles holding the rest of the team back.

Cleveland can't afford to get off to such a slow start in what should be a tightly contested division (not to mention the AL East, which will probably be fighting tooth-and-nail for the Wild Card spot all year). The franchise hasn't gotten off to an 0-5 start since 1985 and now join Washington (0-5) as the only teams in the Majors who are still win-less.

Today I wanted to characterize the first five outings from the starting pitching. Despite the end result, there were actually a few positive signs.

Cliff Lee

4/6 @ TX: 5.0 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 5 SO, 1 HR, 79-53 pitches-strikes, 3-7 GB-FB

I was willing to chalk this start up as an anomaly at first glance. Combine a sore forearm from a deflected linedrive, Opening Day pressure, a very strong Texas lineup, and a career 9.19 ERA over 6 career starts at Arlington and the odds seemed to be stacked against Lee that day. Lee retired the first four batters he faced until being struck in the left forearm by a liner. After being inspected by the training staff, Lee continued to pitch, but allowed five more base runners on four hits and a walk before getting out of the inning. My guess is that the soreness in Lee's arm temporarily broke his concentration or mechanics because he seemed fine in the third and fourth innings. Lee gave up just two hits while striking out four in the middle innings before surrendering a three-run homer in the fifth.

4/11 vs. TOR: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 5 SO, 0 HR, 102-57 pitches-strikes, 3-7 GB-FB

The match-up between last year's Cy Young winner and runner-up was supposed to be where Lee redeemed himself after a poor showing on Opening Day. Instead, Lee struggled, but no longer had the benefit of the doubt since he was pitching at home against a tamer Toronto lineup. Lee failed to go beyond five innings for the second straight start after averaging 7.19 IP per start in 2008. In the post-game wrap, Wedge thought his ace was "a little erratic with his fastball. There were times when he was throwing where he wanted to, but he was also missing by quite a bit at times." Lee didn't throw a curveball until the 9th batter he faced (resulting in a K) and relied heavily on his fastball throughout the start.

One of Lee's keys to success last season was how his fastball and curveball complimented each other. 2008 saw Lee utilize the curveball about 9.6% of the time (a career high) and his heater 70.1%. It's also worth noting that in going to his fastball so often, Lee possessed excellent command of it (something he lacked in his last start). In two starts, Lee has stuck mostly with his fastball (57.0%), cutter (11.4%), and changeup (24.1%), using the curve only 7.6% of the time. It will be interesting to see how Lee's pitch selection evolves after a few more starts and if he finds success by going back to last year's strategy of mixing in the curveball more often.

Fausto Carmona

4/8 @ TX: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 4 SO, 1 HR, 95-59 pitches-strikes, 6-5 GB-FB

I thought Carmona looked better than what the boxscore indicates in this case. He displayed a good range of velocity (84-94 MPH) and had decent action on his sinking fastball. Carmona's undoing against Texas was that he just made too many mistakes. Many of the balls Carmona left up in the zone were punished by the Rangers. Others, like the ball Kinsler golfed from his ankles for a double, seemed a bit unlucky. I think Carmona is the most likely to bounce-back immediately because many of his runs seemed to come from a lack of concentration or a few bad pitches. Overall, Carmona seemed to have decent stuff and was able to find the strike zone 62% of the time, but Texas seemed especially patient at times, making it difficult for Fausto to set-up his go-to pitches.

Look for Carmona to get his confidence and focus back and enjoy much better results in his next outing.

Carl Pavano

4/9 @ TX: 1.0 IP, 6 H, 9 ER, 3 BB, 1 SO, 2 HR, 39-21 pitches-strikes, 1-1 GB-FB

The only way Pavano's debut as an Indian could have been any worse was if Wedge had left him in for more than one inning. If Pavano fails to significantly improve on this first start, there's no justification for keeping him on the team. If Shapiro needs more time to evaluate his options in Columbus he might as well stretch out Zach Jackson to make a couple of starts in lieu of Pavano (the downside of this is that they could realistically need Jackson to fill in the gaps for another struggling starter). The stark contrast between Pavano and Jackson's 4 innings of 4 hit, 2 run ball was laughable. Jackson came out of the bullpen and basically schooled Pavano in how to deal with the Texas lineup, striking out six and walking none. The only good to come out of Pavano's start was that it gave Jackson a chance to confirm he can be an effective long-man or emergency starter in a pinch. I was impressed with the way Jackson attacked hitters (70% of his pitches were strikes) and mixed up his location and velocity to keep hitters off-balance, especially after being called in on short-notice like that.

I wasn't expecting Pavano to have great velocity; at this point in his career that's not his game. But where was the pitch location that's supposed to be his bread and butter? Pavano either couldn't locate his pitches or he had so little confidence in his stuff that he was afraid to throw strikes. Most of his pitches were either elevated or too far outside the zone to even be borderline calls. It felt like Pavano had a very weak presence on the mound and had absolutely no answer for the loaded Texas lineup. At one point, it looked like Pavano was just avoiding the hitters zone as much as possible, going through the motions, waiting to be pulled. I can't blame Wedge for leaving him in even after the seven runs, since calling on the bullpen to pitch almost an entire game would have its own adverse consequences.

Short of a miraculous turn-around, I wouldn't be surprised if Pavano was cut after two more starts.

Scott Lewis

4/10 vs. TOR: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 B, 3 SO, 2 HR, 94-61 pitches-strikes, 3-6 GB-FB

Lewis looked extremely sharp out of the gate, nailing Martinez's glove and locating the ball well. The 25-year old southpaw showcased his ability to paint both corners of the plate and use his fastball and changeup in tandem effectively. He also didn't seem to get rattled when faced with a lead-off double in the third inning. Toronto's hitters seemed to make the necessary adjustments to Lewis' strategy the second time through the lineup, resulting in a three-run fourth inning. Lewis gave up four consecutive hits in the fourth: two singles, a double, and a two-run homer. He was pulled in the fifth after coughing up a home run to Marco Scutaro on an obvious mistake pitch right down the middle of the plate at the letters (the rain had picked up to a steady downpour at that point, so that didn't help matters). The key to Lewis improving will be if he can counter his opponent's adjustments the second and third time through the lineup. While it's great that he can locate his fastball inside, Jays' hitters were starting to catch up to balls trailing in on them and making contact for hits.

Lewis no longer has the benefit of being an unknown rookie to Major League hitters, so he'll have to adapt to remain effective at this level.

Scott Lewis Sets Tribe Rotation

I'm still not sure what to make of Scott Lewis. With a grand total of eight starts between Buffalo and Cleveland last season, it's difficult to get a true bearing on how the 25-year old lefty will perform over an extended period in the Majors. Apparently, Tribe management has enough confidence in Lewis to grant him the final spot in the starting rotation in the closing weeks of Spring Training.

Lewis came into camp as a dark horse of sorts, forced to state his case against the experience of Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers and the momentum of a then-healthy David Huff. My prediction at the beginning of camp was for Laffey to tighten his grip on a fifth rotation slot that was essentially his to lose with Huff settling in as the emergency starter in Columbus. I was excited about the prospect of either pitcher making it into the Tribe's rotation this season. Each southpaw features a different set of strengths, with Laffey relying heavily on groundball outs and Huff utilizing precise location and a diverse arsenal of pitches to fool batters.

I thought Laffey held an edge this time because his 143 innings in the Majors alone outpaced that of Huff's entire pro career (214 minor league innings). In a rotation with a rebounding Carmona, a rehabbing Pavano, and the occasionally fragile Reyes, Laffey's unique combination of experience and talent made him a stand-out amongst the youthful rotation candidates. With so much uncertainty in the rotation, Cleveland felt fairly confident in what to expect from Laffey at the highest level of competition. While Laffey has already made his debut, all signs point to Huff being Major League-ready as well.

The only real set-back Huff has experienced since college was an elbow injury that cost him part of the 2007 season. After showing no residual effects from the injury in 2008, Huff continued to tear through opposing batters as he made a smooth transition from Akron to Buffalo in his age 23 season. Huff finished 2008 with a 2.53 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 4.93 K/BB over a healthy 145.4 IP, punching his VIP ticket to Goodyear in the process. Clearly, Huff was ready for a new challenge in 2009. Unfortunately, Huff made it through just four innings in exhibition games before being shut down due to tendinitis in his left bicep. With flashbacks to the 2007 elbow issue resurfacing, Cleveland took the cautious route and shut-down the prized lefty for much of camp.

Huff may have missed out on an opportunity to impact the race for the fifth rotation spot, but Terry Pluto reports that Huff was back in action at minor league camp after a quick rebound from the bicep injury. According to Pluto, Huff has been totally locked in at camp, preventing any base runners from to advancing past first base over 12 IP until a Beau Mills tater left the park on Monday.

With Huff making an early exit, the competition came down to Laffey and Scott Lewis. Management was on-board with Laffey from the beginning and made it clear that the job was his to lose. Laffey reflected this sentiment, stating "I have that confidence that it's going to be my spot" entering the second week of March. Laffey had plenty of motivation heading into camp after being demoted to AAA in late July and struggling to regain his footing for the remainder of the 2008 season. He was outstanding in May, tossing 34 innings over five starts with a 0.79 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, but fell apart in June and July with a 6.24 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over 53.3 IP in 10 starts. Elbow tightness supposedly affected Laffey's control, leading to the inconsistent season.

The team tends to focus on many factors when evaluating a pitcher during the pre-season. Given how uneven the whole Spring Training experience is, from the lack of innings to the uneven quality of opposing lineups to the lingering effects of a long off-season, the usual performance stats are given minimal consideration in camp (Wedge claims he doesn't even look at stats during Spring Training). This amplifies the importance of a pitcher's current physical condition, preparation prior to each start, adjustments made on the fly, and composure under pressure along with pitch velocity and movement, control, and a consistent delivery. Even if a pitcher has a poor outing in the box score, the bottom line is the impression made on the coaching staff and general manager.

The lack of substantial innings makes a consistent execution of these things crucial to a pitcher trying to win a spot out of camp. A bad week by one player can provide enough of an opening for the competition to pull ahead. I think a lack of consistency was what cost Laffey the job that he had been favored to win. Even though the overall numbers between Laffey and Lewis are similar, Laffey was more erratic on the mound over those 13 innings. Here's how they compared through March 20:

Player	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/BB	GB/FB
S. Lewis	13.1	4.12	1.45	2.00	1.72
A. Laffey	13.0	6.92	1.46	2.25	2.50

In the team's opinion, Lewis looked more prepared for the start of the season than Laffey. Maybe Laffey was a little too relaxed in his approach and let a few of his exhibition starts get away from him or maybe a few of his bad habits from last season carried over into camp. Whatever the reason, Lewis out-pitched Laffey in what appears to be a minor upset as far as Spring Training competitions go.

Having Lewis start the season in Cleveland feels more like an extended tryout to me though. It's not so much that Lewis looks better right now, rather the team wants to gain some clarity on how big a role Lewis may play in the future. I haven't seen much to indicate the team is very confident in what to expect out of Lewis over an extended period. This could be their way of filling in some of the gaps on the depth chart by getting a better read on what they have in their rookie pitcher.

A similar scenario has played out in the past with Sowers in 2006. Sowers made his Major League debut against Cincinnati after a late June call-up. While he didn't blow away opposing batters, the then 23-year old was steady over his first 14 starts, compiling a 3.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 1.75 K/BB in 88.3 IP. Back-to-back complete game shutouts on the road on July 22 and 28 solidified his role in the starting rotation for the remainder of the season. Sowers started the 2007 season with Cleveland, but fell short of his previous effort with a 6.42 ERA over 13 starts (67.3 IP). He has struggled to secure a permanent starting job with Cleveland ever since.

Like Sowers, Scott Lewis made a splash in his debut, tossing 14 consecutive scoreless innings and winning all four of his starts. Lewis had a bit of a rough go in his final two starts against hard-hitting Detroit and Chicago (10 IP, 14 H, 4 HR, 7 ER), but finished with a 2.62 ERA and 2.50 K/BB ratio. Lewis' September stint in Cleveland no doubt aided his audition in February and March.

There are two key differences between the duel southpaw's debuts (besides a disparate number of starts). First, this isn't 2006 where the Tribe finished in fourth place with a 78-84 record (Todd Hollandsworth started in Sowers' debut, if that tells you anything). This squad is a playoff contender and doesn't have the luxury of testing rookie pitchers in uncharted waters purely for evaluation purposes. If the rookie is the best option on the roster, fine, but most of the starting rotation will already be on a short leash and Lewis should be no exception. Second, this team is loaded with starting pitching depth. If Lewis shows signs of being overwhelmed, fatigued, or unable to make the necessary adjustments Cleveland should make that call to Columbus without hesitation.

I expect Laffey to snap out of whatever mysterious funk he's been in lately and judging by what I've heard thus far, Huff could turn out to be the impact rookie for Cleveland this season (LaPorta or Brantley would have earned this designation if it weren't for the fact that the offense is the least of this team's problems). I still consider Sowers more of a secondary option behind Laffey and Huff, but given his quasi-veteran status and modest improvements from last season he may be higher up on Shapiro's speed-dial than I realize. My point is, Lewis will need to carry that Spring Training mentality into the regular season, since he'll be fighting to keep his job from Day 1.

Decisions made regarding the starting rotation in March may ultimately prove meaningless come June or July. I have a feeling the state of the rotation will remain fluid during the first half of the season as the health and effectiveness of Pavano, Reyes, and Lewis are tested in meaningful games. This could prove to be a blessing or a curse, depending on how the organization's vaunted depth handles the opportunity (think Juan Gonzalez's hammy in 2005). I have no idea what we'll see out of Scott Lewis, but I also know we haven't seen the last of Laffey and Huff this season.

Weather or Worry?

Terry Pluto provided an interesting quote from veteran pitcher Kerry Wood in a recent article addressing the troublesome weather conditions at Goodyear:

Not long after Cliff Lee was spanked for seven runs in five innings Wednesday, Tribe closer Kerry Wood said there are real reasons why pitchers complain it's hard to grip and throw the baseball in Arizona's dry, desert air.

"It sometimes feels like baby powder [is on the ball]," said Wood.

Those words came just after Wood threw a 1-2-3 sixth inning, whiffing two.

Pluto points out that "not every Tribe pitcher has been hit hard this spring," citing the success of Fausto Carmona, Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes, and Jensen Lewis in the desert environment (although Fausto could probably pitch in a snowstorm and still manage to find the the strike zone). Personally, I'm not buying the lack of humidity as a real excuse. The same issue pops up at many West Coast locales and during frigid night games early and late in the season. If a pitcher doesn't know how to deal with the ambient air conditions by now, they're going to run into trouble at some point.

Cliff Lee brushed off the "dry ball" issue as just another excuse, but Scott Lewis...not so much. I'm probably being a bit harsh, but an athlete at that level really needs to be aware of how the environment can affect his performance on the field. High winds blowing the ball towards the fence are one thing; no way to control that. But blaming a wild start on the lack of humidity?

Lewis got jacked up in his last two tune-ups (6.2 IP, 21 H, 15 ER, 6 HR), so hopefully he was able to learn something from those beat-downs beyond "use more rosin." Otherwise, he's going to have a tough time pitching in the cold, dry months of the season.

Checking In with the Late Additions

In keeping with the Spring Training theme for the second half of the season, Cleveland’s roster went through some major changes in September. A few players finally returned from injuries, but most are just in town for a hard earned cup-of-coffee. With so many players vying for work, it can be hard to keep track of who’s done what, so I thought I’d take a brief look at how some of the rookies and returning veterans have fared since joining the club (I intentionally left the relief pitchers out, but will get to the bullpen as a whole in my next post).

Michael Aubrey

Aubrey actually started six games at first base and one as a DH with Cleveland way back in May (.674 OPS, 2 HR, 30 PA). In 72 games with Buffalo this year, Aubrey compiled a .281 AVG, .328 OBP, .418 SLG line along with 18 doubles and 7 homeruns. Despite average production at the plate, his 97 minor league games are by far the most he’s played in a season since 2004 (98 games), making Aubrey’s health a bright spot for 2008.

The 26 year old has been slow to advance through the minors and 2008 marks his first appearance in Cleveland. The main reason Aubrey hasn’t been able to string together a lights out season in the high minors is a disheartening series of back and lower body injuries. So to be fair, Aubrey may well possess the ability to succeed, but his body has failed him over his career.

According to minor league guru Tony Lastoria, Aubrey is also out of minor league options after this season and the logjam at first base does not bode well for the oft injured infielder. Cleveland really needs all the help it can get at first though, so a fresh face is certainly welcome.

Aubrey has only appeared in five games so far, but seems to be getting a start in roughly every other game. In a miniscule 17 PA, Aubrey has collected four hits, two walks, and an RBI. It’s way too late in the season to get a real bead on whether Aubrey can handle Major League pitching, but he’ll likely glean a few starts from the mix of Garko and Martinez.

I’m not sure if the presence of Martinez and Aubrey (kind of hard to ignore) has provided Garko with some extra motivation lately, but his offense has picked up considerably. Unfortunately, even with a (relatively) hot August Garko still isn’t making a strong case for retaining his starting gig next season.

Even with the current issues at first, I have a feeling Aubrey may be traded or let go this off-season since he’s out of options, injury prone, and is facing competition at first base from incumbents and other minor leaguers.

Josh Barfield

Barfield has run into a disappointing combination of bad luck and poor performance this year. In what was supposed to be a bounce back season, Barfield struggled to gain any traction in Buffalo. Over 73 games in AAA, Barfield managed a weak .251, .292, .368 line in 320 PA. There’s barely been any improvement between his 444 Major League PA’s in 2007 (.243, .270, .324) and his time in the minors now. That’s bad news no matter how you slice it.

I’ve always wanted to take a closer look at Barfield’s decline, but at first glance his career is just puzzling to me. How does a player who posted consecutive OPS’ of .922, .728, and .820 through Class A+, AA, and AAA take such a drastic nosedive just when he’s supposed to be entering his prime? Barfield was only 23 years old when he hit .280 with 13 HR and 32 doubles with the Padres. At age 25, he seems destined to be a total bust as a major leaguer.

Cleveland promoted him as a more experienced alternative to Asdrubal Cabrera back in early June. The very next game, Barfield was hit by a ball that resulted in surgery on a tendon in his middle finger. I don’t think anybody was expecting Josh to tear the cover off the ball, but I still feel sorry for the guy. While Barfield rehabbed the finger, Cabrera essentially locked up second base and threw away the key (bad for Barfield, good for the team and Cabrera).

Barfield has started a game in the last two series (@BAL, KC), but that’s it since he was rehabbing before that. I wouldn’t be surprised if Barfield gets a few more token starts, but he’s basically out of a job with the sudden emergence of Cabrera (I doubt he factored into the team’s plans this early, otherwise why trade for Barfield later that year?).

Victor Martinez

Victor may have made his final minor league rehab start the last week of August, but as far as I’m concerned he’s still rehabbing. The team planned on bringing Martinez along very slowly in his return from elbow surgery. Martinez has actually seen more playing time than I expected in the past two weeks, rotating between first, catcher, and DH over 11 starts.

The fact that Martinez has appeared comfortable behind the plate (even playing consecutive games there) tells me that he’s close to 100% health-wise. I doubt the timing on his swing is quite up to speed yet based on how long he couldn’t swing a bat and that he hadn’t faced ML pitching for quite a while (think of it as a player who missed spring training and had to start the season cold). Even so, Martinez has looked pretty good over the past two weeks, posting a solid .290, .378, .452 line with 9 H, 8 RBI, and 6 R in 8 starts. He’s hardly been dead-weight in the lineup, which is exactly what Cleveland wanted to see before the season ended.

The main thing missing from Martinez’s season thus far was his ability to drive the ball. Over 130 PA’s in May and June (I excluded April because I don’t think the elbow was seriously hindering him yet), Victor’s SLG was a paltry .267. Considering his career SLG is .463, it’s fairly obvious injuries were sapping Martinez’s power. Since the surgery, Martinez has a .466 SLG and hit his first two taters of the season. It’s been like night and day since Martinez had elbow surgery, so I wouldn’t worry about him for 2009.

Travis Hafner

Hafner was just activated off the 60-day DL on September 9, so there’s not a lot to report here in terms of in-game action. Wedge has been using Hafner about every other day (that seems to be the trend with such a crowded bench) in the middle of the lineup as DH.

In case you missed it earlier, Hafner’s right shoulder was the reason he was out all season. Anthony Castrovince quoted Head Trainer Lonnie Soloff on the injury:

“Hafner was able to build up the muscles surrounding his clavicle, and that had the effect of masking what was going on in the scapula (shoulder blade) area. Beneath the surface, the muscles around Pronk's scapula were wasting away, unbeknownst to the player and the team. Both parties insist Hafner wasn't bothered by the shoulder in 2007.”

Last I heard, Hafner was still working his way back and continuing to strengthen his shoulder. The shoulder was strong enough to ruin the Bowie Baysox playoff run though. Batting behind human wrecking ball Matt La Porta (.462 AVG, 5 R, 5 RBI vs. Bowie), Hafner went 2-6 with 2 bombs and 7 RBI in two games.

Hafner is in a similar situation to Martinez in that he is basically starting his season over again ice cold. I’ve only seen Hafner bat in a couple games, but he’s definitely not in any kind of groove right now. His timing is off and he seems to have a hard time squaring up the fastball. One positive is that Hafner isn’t swinging at balls out of the zone very often, so he is showing some patience at the plate.

Oddly enough, Baltimore’s manager still respected Hafner’s bat enough to issue an intentional walk to him with men in scoring position. Hafner has three hits and four strikeouts in four September starts with Cleveland.

Asdrubal Cabrera

Since returning from Buffalo on July 18 AstroCab has racked up a .307, .390, .464 line, 11 2B, 5 HR, 25 R, 26 RBI and 3 SB in 50 starts and 201 PA.

Yeah, that’s pretty awesome. Next….

Zach Jackson

Jackson may have played his way out the conversation for sixth starter in 2009. The young left-hander got crushed by the Twins on Tuesday, surrendering 7 ER on 9 hits and a walk over 5.1 IP. Jackson has been a bit of a wild card in his brief stay with the Tribe, averaging 5.88 innings per start with a 6.48 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

His tendency to attack the strike zone (63% of his pitches are strikes) and 3.66 K/BB ratio aren’t bad, but Jackson has a tendency to give up runs in bunches. Over 19% of Jackson’s innings have ended with multiple runs scoring. When he gets hit, he gets hit hard.

Jackson’s last two starts are on the road against Boston and Chicago, so he still has a chance to reassert himself versus the field.

Scott Lewis

No disrespect to Lewis, but I’m not sure I’d heard of him before he was called up last week. The 24 year old Ohio State alum has been tearing up Class AA hitters this season. Lewis boasts a 2.33 ERA, .97 WHIP, and 6.77 K/BB ratio over 73.1 IP (5.62 per start) with Akron. He also made a smooth transition to Buffalo, posting a 2.63 ERA, .96 WHIP, and 5.25 K/BB ratio in his first four starts.

Lewis went on to pitch eight shutout innings at Baltimore in his debut. He followed it up with a six inning, three hit, five strikeout shutout against Minnesota, which definitely turned some heads. Like I said, I don’t know much about Lewis, but fortunately Tony Lastoria provides a detailed scouting report on his blog:

“To the casual observer, Lewis' high strikeout rate would seem to indicate he throws some serious heat; however, this is not the case. Lewis has a fastball that consistently sits around 87-89 MPH and tops out at 91 MPH, but his tremendous command of his secondary pitches along with good arm action and deception throughout his delivery makes his fastball play up and look faster. He also throws a curveball and changeup, and the power and depth he has added to his nasty 12-6 curveball has made it one of the best in the system. His changeup has developed into a plus pitch, and he gets a lot of action on his pitches in the strike zone.”

The array of tools and an impressive minor league track record makes Lewis an interesting player to watch going forward. The thing I was most impressed with was Lewis’ focus in his first two Major League starts. How many guys can jump from Class AA to the Majors and show no sign of nerves in their performance? I’ll be sure to catch Lewis’ remaining starts this season.

Anthony Reyes

I’ve talked about Reyes in depth before, so this is more of a minor update. Reyes left his September 5 start after the third inning because of soreness in his throwing elbow. It turns out the elbow inflammation has been slow to heal, so the team opted to shut down Reyes for the final weeks of the season.

According to Anthony Castrovince, “St. Louis had bounced [Reyes] between starting and relief work, and the Indians think that might have contributed to his elbow trouble.”

Reyes has looked like a steal early on, compiling a 1.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 1.25 K/BB ratio over 6 starts (5.71 IP per start). Tribe Manager Eric Wedge feels confident about Reyes despite the minor setback with his elbow:

"He did a great job with his fastball. His changeup is a plus pitch, and I saw more of a breaking ball than was advertised. He's stoic. Nothing fazed him. Obviously, there's going to be strong competition, but he's pitched as well as anybody in that group."

Barring any free agent signings, I have a hunch Reyes will be a frontrunner for fifth starter at the outset of the 2009 season.