Scouting the FA Closers

As you probably know by now, Cleveland is shopping for a closer this off-season. The Tribe is looking to either sign or trade for an established closer, although their budget is not entirely clear. I felt that the best combination of reliability, experience, and value on the free agent market was Trevor Hoffman, which you can read about here. Cleveland supposedly talked with Hoffman, Fuentes, Rodriguez, and Jason Isringhausen. I was originally going to do a list of free agents and trade targets, but I think I’ll just round out the free agents Cleveland has an interest in and pick up on any trade rumors after the winter meetings (in case you were wondering, Matt Capps is at the top of my wish-list on that front).

2.) Kerry Wood

2008 Team: Cubs
Age: 31
Previous Contract: 1 yr / $4.2 mil (2008), plus up to $3.45 mil for performance bonuses

Player	SV (%)	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA+	H/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB
K. Wood	34 (85.0%)	66.1	3.26	1.09	137	7.33	2.44	11.40	4.67

As much as I hyped up Trevor Hoffman earlier, I think I’d be pretty happy if the team went with Kerry Wood instead. Wood is an interesting option considering he has 10 MLB seasons under his belt, but just completed his first as a closer. After logging 174, 213, and 211 innings as a starter from 2001 to 2003, Wood struggled to stay healthy. Between 2004 and 2006, Wood suffered from an array of injuries and underwent surgery on his knee and rotator cuff. The Cubs finally decided to try and conserve Wood's electric arm by converting him to a reliever in 2007. The relief stint got off to a rough start as Wood spent most of the season battling elbow issues (he did not return to Chicago until August). Wood expressed a strong preference to stay in Chicago, taking an incentives based $4.2 million dollar contract after filing for free agency after the 2007 season.

Wood would have been the perfect Shapiro project a year ago; battered by injuries with a high payoff when healthy. Wood's 2008 run as the Cubs closer jump-started the former ace's career and probably put him in line for a hefty raise. Wood officially hit the open market Monday after the Cubs declined to offer him arbitration. The Cubs have made it clear they are moving on without Wood, even though he has offered to take a one year deal to stay with the team. Chicago balked at Wood's supposed $9+ million salary and have already anointed Carlos Marmol as closer.

Wood's value significantly increased after 2008 due to his success as closer and the fact that he was able to stay healthy for the entire season. The only major setback for Wood was in July when he suffered from a blister on his right index finger and was placed on the 15-day DL. Wood isn't exactly a veteran closer, but he is a veteran starter. He has already proven that he has the mentality to handle the closer role and is a seasoned playoff pitcher. His 85.0% save percentage last year was comparable to elite closers like Joe Nathan (86.6%) and B.J. Ryan (88.8%).

Despite owning the lowest save percentage and highest ERA between Fuentes and Rodriguez, I would take Wood if all I had to go by were the numbers. Wood’s ERA was inflated by a few bad outings, particularly in July when he was probably trying to work around a blister on one of his throwing fingers. Other than the three isolated appearances where he gave up three runs and a bad stretch in September where he surrendered 7 runs in 3.1 innings, Wood was very reliable. He may have blown six saves, but three of those came before May 2. After that, all Wood did was rack up consecutive saves.

Wood’s H/9 rate was slightly higher than K-Rod and Fuentes, but Wood’s outstanding combination of a 2.44 BB/9 rate and 11.40 K/9 rate really puts him ahead of the competition. Even though he gave up more hits, Wood had the best WHIP, K/BB ratio, and HR/9 rate of the three. Wood’s combination of strikeouts and precision place him ahead of pack in terms of overall pitching ability and I feel that his numbers are fairly sustainable. Several stats seem likely to regress based strictly on Wood’s career totals, although I’m not sure it’s fair to directly compare his time as a starter to that as a reliever. If you consider Wood’s ability as a starter and remove all the pitfalls of starting (late inning fatigue, loss of focus, multiple ABs per batter, etc.) it seems very reasonable to think that Wood would see a significant improvement in performance if all of his effort were distilled down to just one or two innings per outing.

If Wood can stay healthy this season, there’s a strong chance he’ll be a lights-out closer.

While I'm not sure about the exact amount, I think his price per year will fall between Fuentes and Hoffman. I don't see him giving other teams the option of a one year deal like he offered to Chicago (that was motivated more by his own desire to stay in Chicago than anything else). If I were Wood's agent I would advise him to seek a three to four year deal given that this is his first real venture as a free agent and his history of injury. The 31 year old Wood may not have another shot at a big, multi-year contract depending on how his body holds up. It's not clear how heavily teams are weighing Wood's prior injuries (no pun intended), but if other GMs hesitate to sign him to three or four years Cleveland may step in with the next best thing.

Considering how important it is that Cleveland's closer be a consistent presence (read, healthy) this season, I'm not sure Wood is the best choice for Cleveland. Still, K-Rod has been deflecting rumors about the condition of his arm this off-season, while Trevor Hoffman is 41 years old. It’s tough to tell where Cleveland would rank Wood in terms of injury risk (you can bet someone is poring over his latest physical and 2008 tapes though). Personally, I think I’d take a chance on Wood if he could be had for a reasonable contract.

I could see Cleveland offering a two year guaranteed contract at $6-8 million per year, plus a team option, with another $2-3 million in incentives based on appearances and DL stints. Again, the market will likely dictate whether Wood ends up considering anything less than three years at $9-10 million per. Texas is rumored to be pretty high on Wood and has a history of burning money in free agency, so expect some stiff competition to drown out concerns about Wood's past injuries.

3.) Brian Fuentes

2008 Team: Colorado
Age: 33
Previous Contract: 1 yr / $5.05 mil (2008)

Player	SV (%)	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA+	H/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB
B. Fuentes	30 (88.2%)	62.2	2.73	1.10	168	6.75	3.16	11.78	3.73

Fuentes appears to be the Mets’ primary target right now. Based on Fuentes' scheduled meeting with the Mets in Vegas and how desperate New York is for a closer to replace the ailing Billy Wagner, I'd say Fuentes will be off the market before the Winter Meetings conclude. While Cleveland did express an interest in Fuentes, I don't see them getting into a bidding war with the Mets (never a good idea).

Fuentes managed to have the best season of his career in 2008 despite logging over half his innings in the Major’s third best hitters park (Coors Field). Below are his home/away splits for the past three seasons:

Brian Fuentes 2008 Season Splits

Location	Year	IP	ERA	WHIP	SLGA	K/BB
Home	2006	34.2	3.63	1.21	.410	4.44
	2007	31.1	1.72	0.83	.292	3.00
	2008	33.1	3.51	1.29	.357	4.80
Away	2006	30.2	3.23	1.11	.324	1.94
	2007	30.0	4.50	1.43	.350	2.13
	2008	29.1	1.84	0.89	.210	3.40

Finding success in Colorado as a pitcher is no easy task. You either face a thin-aired, slugger’s paradise at home or a foreign, hostile environment on the road. I guess it’s not that surprising that Fuentes’ home and away splits tend to fluctuate each year. I expected his ERA and SLGA to heavily favor his time at Coors, but if you take the past three seasons as a whole, there seems to be a rough equilibrium. In 2006, Fuentes posted similar numbers at home (3.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) and away (3.23 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). In 2007, he dominated batters at home (1.72 ERA, 0.83 WHIP), but got roughed up to the tune of a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road. In his walk year, the splits reversed: stellar away (1.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP), significantly less so at home (3.51 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).

Even Fuentes’ slugging against (SLGA) follows this pattern, although you’d expect opposing batters to consistently collect more extra base hits against him at Coors Field than in most other stadiums.

Fuentes’ overall performance as Colorado’s closer has been pretty solid, averaging 62.8 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 155 ERA+ over the past three seasons (his 78.7 save percentage represents some really shaky stretches in ’06 and ’07 though). The main thing I was curious about was if Fuentes would see a significant improvement in performance once he got away from Coors Field. Based on a rough analysis of his splits, I don’t think he’ll see any major improvements in the future, at least not due to a change of address. I don’t see Fuentes’ value slipping very much, but his 2008 season will probably go down as a career year for him.

Again, as long as his contract remains reasonable (unlikely) then Fuentes will provide an experienced, quality arm, but probably won’t meet the Mets’ expectations as closer based on his inability to dominate in high leverage situations on a consistent basis (career 80.0 SV%)

4.) Francisco Rodriguez

2008 Team: Anaheim
Age: 26
Previous Contract: 1 yr / $10 mil (2008)

Player	SV (%)	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA+	H/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB
F. Rodriguez	62 (89.8%)	68.1	2.24	1.29	198	7.11	4.48	10.14	2.26

I’m probably going to get torched for ranking Rodriguez near the bottom...oh well (not that my made-up “ranking” system ever meant anything).

The market seems to have cooled on Rodriguez and his record 62 saves. At one point, Rodriguez was seeking Mariano Rivera money (you know, 1.40 ERA, .66 WHIP, 39 saves for the umpteenth time in his career…that Rivera), or around $15 million a year on a long term contract. Amazingly, no one appears to have taken the bait and the hype surrounding Rodriguez is dim heading into the Winter Meetings.

Except for a 2.24 ERA and 62 saves, Rodriguez was only average in a direct comparison to Wood, Fuentes, and Hoffman. Rodriguez actually had the worst WHIP and K/BB ratio, which doesn’t make sense when paired with his sparkling ERA. At first glance, it looks like Rodriguez had quite a bit of luck on his side to allow so many baserunners with minimal damage. Let’s peel back another layer here:

2008 Closer FIPs

B. Fuentes: 2.24
K. Wood: 2.32
F. Rodriguez: 3.22
T. Hoffman: 3.99

Rodriguez’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is nearly a full point higher than Wood and Fuentes, which suggests he was getting a significant boost from his team’s defense and other factors beside his performance on the mound. Would Rodriguez be able to duplicate his 89.8 save percentage without improving his WHIP and BB/9 rate next season? Probably not.

Speaking of walks, 2008 marks the second consecutive season Rodriguez has seen his BB/9, H/9, and HR/9 rates rise, while his K/9 rate dropped. The rising walk rates and apparent decline in control may be a sign of some early wear and tear in Rodriguez’s throwing arm. Regardless of why these issues are popping up for the 26 year old flamethrower, allowing an exponential amount of baserunners and taters each year is going to catch up with him at some point (probably sooner than later if his K rate fails to rebound).

Another issue that may be causing reluctance amongst GMs is Rodriguez’s declining velocity. I wouldn’t have thought to look it up before (the kid throws hard), but Rodriguez has lost at least a MPH off his fastball every year since 2006. Rodriguez threw his heater 56% of the time with an average speed of 94.8 MPH. In 2008, he had cut back on his fastball usage by 5.3% and had an average speed of 91.9 MPH. The same can be said of his slider, which lost 4.6 MPH since 2006. To compensate, Rodriguez threw nearly twice as many changeups in 2008 as he had in the past.

Normally, a 26 year old whose fastball is his bread and butter wouldn’t have to compensate for lost velocity by mixing in a new pitch. It’s not the combination of the pitches so much as the timing (plus the declining K/BB rate). If I were talking to K-Rod’s agent about a long-term deal, that would be a major point of concern for me.

So why am I digging into Rodriguez when there are plenty of other flawed closers on the market? Well, I felt that Rodriguez was severely overrated in 2008 (Cy Young, are you kidding me?) and find it interesting how his breaking the saves record seemed to overshadow a few red flags (like the persistent drop in velocity). Anaheim has never been afraid to spend to retain a player. You have to wonder, what did they see that caused them to pass on Rodriguez?

Basically, I feel sorry for the team that signs Rodriguez to a four or five year deal because I think they’ll be lucky to get two good years out of him. Then again, maybe the abundance of closers and lack of spare change will see some GMs (not to name anybo-Sabean) show a bit of restraint this off-season.

No matter how scouts are interpreting the above trends, Rodriguez is one of the most important free agents this winter (Sabathia and Teixeira are the others), since he will set the precedent for every reliever’s contract after him.

And no, I don’t think Cleveland will make him a serious offer.

5.) Jason Isringhausen

2008 Team: St. Louis
Age: 35
Previous Contract: 3 yrs / $25.75 mil (2005-07), plus $8 mil club option (2008)

Player	SV (%)	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA+	H/9	BB/9	K/9	K/BB
Isringhausen	12 (41.67%)	42.2	5.70	1.64	78	10.12	4.64	7.59	1.64

After seeing his name on the list of pitchers Cleveland is talking to, I was forced to take a closer look at Izzy. Overall, I think a return to form is a definite possibility for Isringhausen. I wouldn’t bet the bullpen on it, but certainly possible. That said, I hope Shapiro views Isringhausen as a sort of last resort (including trades) in case the market goes totally nuts or something.

Isringhausen is currently rehabbing from September elbow surgery to repair a torn tendon in his throwing arm. He should be 100% healthy by the time Spring Training arrives. The veteran closer will have plenty of motivation after suffering through his worst season since 1999 when he was traded from the Mets to the Athletics mid-season. His 2008 campaign was derailed by a series of injuries including a hand laceration (kids, don't punch a tv after you blow a save; water coolers are a much cheaper alternative), knee strain, tendonitis, and the torn tendon. To add insult to injury, Izzy had his closer status revoked (twice). Isringhausen probably would have retired if he had reached his goal of 300 saves last season (he needs seven more).

I'm convinced Isringhausen's ugly season can be blamed solely on his injuries and he could be a fairly productive closer in 2009. The trouble is, most of Isringhausen's past struggles were caused by injury issues. He got off to a terrible start in 2006 as well. After an erratic season, he finally succumbed to a hip injury in early September and was left off the Cardinal's post season roster (Adam Wainwright closed out the World Series victory). A newly repaired Isringhausen went on to have a career year in 2007, posting a 2.48 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 32 saves (93.7%) in 65.1 IP. Over his age 31-34 seasons (2004-2007), Isringhausen averaged 64.4 IP, 162 ERA+, 1.19 WHIP, 2.07 K/BB ratio, and an 84.8 save percentage (a couple good seasons, one great one, and one with a major injury, seems about right). At worst, Isringhausen is a top 15 closer (actually, at worst he's a top 15 closer on the DL) and at best he's a top 5. Which Izzy is going to show up in 2009? No idea.

Isringhausen is kind of like a watered down Kerry Wood (minus the filthy K rate): when he's healthy he can be very productive, but the risk of injury tends to run high. However, if I had to choose one injury prone closer over another, Wood is the obvious choice. One benefit of signing Isringhausen is that he'll probably have one of the friendliest free agent contracts of 2009. After expressing his desire to pitch again Isringhausen described his next contract as an "incentive-based thing." Izzy would make sense as a depth signing, but not as the full-time closer. Since he has clearly stated he wants to close, Isringhausen won't be signing with Cleveland.

All contract information was taken from Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Trevor Time?

Many apologies to any esteemed readers who may have stopped by in search of an update in the last two months. I haven’t made a blog post for quite some time due to my new job and subsequent change of residence. Fortunately (or not, depending on what you think of the blog), I have a working internet connection again, but it seems I have some catching up to do on the state of the Tribe and the Hot Stove League. I’ll try not to repeat too much of what’s already been covered by other writers lately, but I do have a few topics I’d like to cover regardless.

Cleveland’s shopping list this offseason has two big items right at the top, in bold letters, underlined, and highlighted: a closer and either a second or third baseman. Despite a strong showing by Jensen Lewis in the final month of 2008 and Kerry Wood impersonator Adam Miller waiting in the wings, the Tribe has placed a priority on bringing in an experienced reliever to man the ninth. I went into detail in a previous post how the bullpen had some cracks in it heading into 2008 and still feel strongly that a lack of a solid contingency plan for when Borowski would inevitably fall off the cliff cost the team a pretty sizable chunk of wins.

I do think Betancourt will bounce back, with positive contributions from Perez, Lewis, and a couple fresh arms (Miller, Sipp, Meloan?), but I wouldn’t feel comfortable handing the closer gig to anything less than a proven commodity in 2009. The fact that Cleveland has three potential closers in Lewis, Perez, and Miller is great, but their services are needed elsewhere. Its one thing to draw on the bullpen depth in a pinch (injuries, etc.), but I think it would be a mistake to not take advantage of a deep free agent class. The team dug itself a steep hole last season while they were scrambling to find a replacement closer in-house; that can’t happen again.

GM Mark Shapiro made it clear that he would not make the same mistake twice and is determined to acquire a legit anchor for the bullpen who won’t end up sinking the ship (although Borowski was more like a torpedo…).

So who has Cleveland been talking to? Apparently, everyone:

"If there's a back-end bullpen alternative out there, then we're going to explore it," general manager Mark Shapiro told MLB.com.

Shapiro has reportedly been talking to agents for several relief pitchers, but the only two that have been confirmed by the GM as targets are Trevor Hoffman and Jose Valverde (via trade). After that, a whole slew of whispered names pop up in connection with Cleveland.

I’ve compiled a list of the top six relievers I would like Cleveland to pursue via free agency or trade, loosely ranked by how likely their acquisition is. I’m running a little short on time heading into my Turkey Day road trip, so the rest of the list will show up in my next post. Today I’d like to focus on the pitcher who I think is most likely to sign with Cleveland.

1.) Trevor Hoffman

2008 Team: San Diego
Age: 41
Previous Contract: 2 yr / $13.5 mil (2006-07), plus $7.5 mil option (2008)

There were two closers that I didn’t think would hit the market this off-season: one was Kerry Wood, the other was Trevor Hoffman. After the turbulent San Diego front office bungled negotiations by low-balling their longest tenured player, Hoffman opted to take his 554 career saves elsewhere.

Cleveland has shown early interest in Hoffman and has had experience dealing with him before. Hoffman nearly came to Cleveland three years ago before re-signing with San Diego (the fact that he had spent 13 years with SD and was still on good terms with their GM back then makes that near-miss very significant in rumored negotiations now). In a recent MLB.com interview, Hoffman showed no preference in his next destination:

"I'm absolutely open to anything," said Hoffman. "National League, American League, just something that's a good fit in a number of arenas. A lot of it is going to depend on what teams come into play."

I think Cleveland could easily sign Hoffman if that’s the direction they want to go in. Hoffman appears to be the best fit in terms of a proven track record, length of contract, and salary. A 1-2 year deal for around $7-8 million annually seems like a reasonable estimate based on his previous contract. There’s a possibility that a chunk of that could be incentives based, but since Hoffman did not miss significant time due to injury in 2008 that seems less likely.

Hoffman only threw 45.1 innings in 2008 after posting at least 50 in 15 of his 17 seasons (the last time he failed to reach this mark was 2003, where he only had 9 IP due to injury). This is due to a lack of save opportunities on a bad team and the fact that San Diego was trying to pace Hoffman’s innings. While reliable, Hoffman would have to be treated somewhat cautiously over the course of a season and would probably have to take the occasional save opportunity off depending on how his arm feels. Given the team's projected bullpen depth, I don't see this being much of an issue. Hoffman did not miss any significant time due to injury last season. He was day-to-day in May with arm soreness and had arthroscopic surgery after the season to remove a few bone chips from his throwing elbow.

The Tribe has several young arms in the pipeline and having Hoffman there for a couple seasons to hold down the fort and mentor his heir apparent would be an ideal development timeline. Three seasons ago, I would have been absolutely stoked to have Trevor Hoffman suit up with the Tribe. Based on his 2008 performance though, I can’t help but be wary of relying on Hoffman to captain the bullpen in 2009.

Hoffman didn’t have a particularly bad season, but there was clearly some regression occurring. It’s hard to critique a guy who hadn’t blown back-to-back save opportunities for 11 years before last season. There were a few interesting trends in 2008 though.

The first thing that jumped out at me was how many homeruns Hoffman gave up last year. Hoffman saw his HR/FB ratio jump to 13.8%, a 7.6% increase from his career total. Considering Hoffman logged 65.7% of his innings at a home field with the most pitcher friendly park rating in the Majors last year (.796, where 1.000 is neutral), this was a surprise. In fact, Hoffman gave up all but one of his eight homeruns at home, where he posted a 4.25 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 29.2 IP. His performance on the road seems better at first glance (2.87 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 15.2 IP), but his K/BB rates (5.40 home to 4.75 road) are similar while his WHIP and BAA increase by 0.27 and .047 respectively. Hoffman got hit harder at home, but he allowed fewer baserunners as well.

I’m not sure what to make of Hoffman’s longball numbers, but they seem a little flukey to me. While Hoffman’s K/BB ratio of 5.11 was better than his career average of 3.85, his hits per 9 IP were not especially high compared to previous seasons either, so no Byrd Effect here. He did get hit harder than in previous years though. Hoffman has a career SLGA (slugging against) of .340, a number that has increased over the past three seasons at .316, .358, and .394 from 2006 to 2008.

Normally, a pitcher who starts to get smacked around more will see a drop in velocity or control, but Hoffman’s average velocity has held steady the past four seasons (85.2 mph FB, 80.9 mph SL, 74.1 mph CB, 73.9 mph CH). Hoffman has had great success working with these pitch velocities in the past and I don't see any reason for his approach to suddenly hit the fan. As I mentioned earlier, Hoffman's K/BB and H/9 ratios are strong compared to previous seasons, so he does not appear to be suffering from control issues on the surface.

Hoffman’s overall numbers in 2008 are heavily weighted towards a poor first half, particularly in April (6.52 ERA, 9.2 IP) and June (6.48 ERA, 8.1 IP). Before the All Star break, Hoffman posted a 5.08 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 17 saves in 28.1 IP, while after the break he had a 1.59 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 13 saves in 18 IP. This isn’t to excuse the two crappy months earlier in the season, but I would have expected a (*ahem*) more experienced arm like Hoffman’s to wear down in the second half, not get stronger. Of course, the opposite happened in 2007 when he posted a 1.91 ERA before and a 4.44 ERA after the break. I was going to make a nifty point about how Hoffman still displays durability late in the season, even at age 41, but the two seasons contradict themselves. So yeah, never mind….

I’m not sure what to make of Hoffman for 2009. I’m not particularly worried about his occasional bad months translating into more consistent, um, inconsistency. Every pitcher hits a few rough patches, which tend to get amplified due to the small sample sizes available for relievers. I'm not too worried about his homerun totals either, since he has given up 6+ in a season a few times before. Also, five of the eight against him came in his two ugly months (May and June), but gave up no more than one homer in any other month. The homerun trend did not dog him throughout the season, which is a good sign.

What I am worried about is how his SLGA has been steadily increasing in an extremely pitcher friendly park. Even if I'm misinterpreting some of the other stats, I think the rising SLGA is a valid concern. I’m also slightly concerned about how he’s never pitched in the American League before, but I’m not sure relievers see their numbers inflate as much as starters making the move since they only have to face a handful of batters as opposed to an entire AL lineup three to four times.

Hoffman is far from fragile and has been very durable even after his rotator cuff surgery back in 2003. Is relying on the 41 year old Hoffman significantly less risky than the 37 year old Borowski was last season? Will he have more success than a player like Jensen Lewis? That’s something the Tribe will have to answer this off-season. Hoffman’s 554 saves and healthy track record set him far from the uncertainty that was associated with Borowski, in my opinion. I think regardless of how confident the team is in Lewis, Miller or who ever, they still have to sign a closer to mitigate the risk associated with using an unproven pitcher at closer.

The main reason I'm hesitant to totally endorse Hoffman is the mess with Borowski last year. I think if you were to remove that experience I might have a different view. It almost seems insulting to compare Hoffman to Borowski, but the risk of injury or fatigue is (was) there for both of them. Both were nearing the end of their careers, although Hoffman obviously has more of a reputation (that's an understatement). Both entered free agency after having a good year, where Borowski posted a 3.75 ERA and 36 saves with Florida. Plus there's the whole speech I made about not taking such a big risk at closer. I'm just not sure how to properly represent the degree of risk (if it were strictly financial this would be easy) associated with Hoffman right now.

Several of the top free agent closers have their own baggage as well. Kerry Wood’s injury history is well known. Fuentes may end up not being much better than Hoffman, but will probably cost a lot more for longer. Even Rodriguez has questions regarding his velocity and endurance at this stage of his career.

The bottom line for any closer is earning the save and Hoffman did that as well or better than any of the other free agents I just mentioned. Hoffman’s 86.7 save percentage matches up well with Rodriguez (89.8%), Fuentes (88.2%), and Wood (85.0%) in 2008 (a down year for Hoffman and a career year for everyone else, what does that tell you?). In that regard, Hoffman may end up as the best value on the relief market this year (seriously, K-Rod is going to end up with a fat, long term contract somewhere and he was only slightly more efficient at doing his job than Hoffman last year).

I have no idea how high Hoffman is on Shapiro’s white board. Based on what I know about Hoffman's health and effectiveness compared to other top closers last season, I would feel comfortable signing him. I know Cleveland wants to move quickly on locking up a closer if possible, so they can allocate funds towards settling the infield. If the price for Fuentes or Wood becomes too steep, Hoffman will quickly become the most appealing free agent for the Tribe.

Does Sabathia Deserve the Cy Young Hype?

If you had asked me at the beginning of August who I thought should win the NL Cy Young, I probably would have said Webb, Lincecum, or Santana depending on how they fared down the stretch. Sure, C.C. Sabathia had been shredding National League bats into dust for over a month at that point, but I didn't consider him a serious CY candidate.

First, the fact that Sabathia had split his time between two different leagues made him seem like a tough sell for an award traditionally given to NL-exclusive pitchers. Second, it seemed like Sabathia's credentials for the NL CY were being hyped up because he happened to get traded to Milwaukee in the middle of a playoff race. I was rooting for the Brew Crew to make the playoffs, but there was no way Sabathia would be able to keep up such a torrid pace, right? It almost seemed like a slight to the other candidates, several of whom were fighting for their own playoff berth, to discuss awarding the recently arrived Sabathia the title of the NL's Best Pitcher.

The trouble is, Sabathia hit the ground running in Milwaukee and never slowed down. Sabathia made 17 starts from July 8 to September 28, posting a 1.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 128 K over 130.7 IP. Milwaukee made no effort to temper C.C.'s competitive nature either, unleashing him in the midst of the wild card race with little concern for a pitch count. To get an idea of how far Sabathia pushed himself in the second half of the season, remember that the Major League leader in complete games was Roy Halladay with nine. Sabathia collected seven CG in about half that time (he had three in the first half with Cleveland, marking his second consecutive year with 10 CG).

Sabathia went on to pitch a complete game shutout on the final day of the season to punch the Brewer's first ticket to the postseason in 26 years. The must-win season finale was Sabathia's third consecutive start on just three days rest (he's in line to make a fourth straight start on short rest against Philly in Game 2 of the NLDS). Besides dragging a struggling Brewers club over the finish line, Sabathia's season is a testament to his durability, athleticism, focus, and outstanding skill as a pitcher. In fact, Sabathia has far surpassed his 2007 Cy Young winning campaign (19-7, 241 IP, 3.21 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 209 K) in every category except win percentage and total wins, making 2008 the best overall season of his career.

Would his stats be so impressive if Milwaukee hadn't given the 27 year old Sabathia free reign over his pitch counts though? As effective as Sabathia has been, there is a potential downside to letting him go like it's 1950 again (but not for Milwaukee). Milwaukee's desperation combined with Sabathia's confidence and competitive nature may have valuted C.C. beyond his peers in terms of performance this season, but I just hope 2008 doesn't come back to haunt him down the road. Interestingly enough, Tim Lincecum is ahead of Sabathia in Baseball Prospectus' Pitcher Abuse Points metric by 62,699 points. Sabathia is still well ahead of the field though with a 33,826 point buffer.

The risks associated with logging so many pitches per outing would grind down most pitchers, but who's to say Johan Santana wouldn't have dominated in the same way as Sabathia if the Mets didn't have millions of dollars still invested in their ace's arm. Santana could have easily reached the 20 win level without the Mets' bullpen holding him back, likely pushing him to the front of the pack in CY consideration. In that sense, it could be argued that Sabathia had an unfair advantage over more restricted (and sane) pitchers.

A similar argument of circumstance can be made on behalf of Tim Lincecum and the fact that he plays for a basement dweller like the Giants. Many voters feel that whether a player's team makes the playoffs is an important part of the awards equation, but I personally disagree with this notion. The player doesn't get to choose the environment he pitches in, all he can do is give his best effort and suck it up when the offense gets shut out or the bullpen implodes. Interestingly, Lincecum, Sabathia, and Santana are all within two wins of each other overall, partly negating the disparate teams issue. All three pitchers have had to deal with either a poor offense (Lincecum, C.C. with Cleveland) or leaky bullpen (especially Santana) on multiple occasions this season.

Even with the pitchers' decisions removed from consideration, Sabathia is arguably at a disadvantage compared to the rest of the NL CY field. The NL features much softer lineups compared to the AL, but Sabathia has had to deal with both leagues over a roughly equal number of starts (18 AL starts, 17 NL starts). Meanwhile, Lincecum and Santana have had twice as many starts logged against NL lineups and appear to have an edge against Sabathia if his entire season were to be taken into consideration.

This brings us to the biggest sticking point in advocating Sabathia for the NL CY. Should C.C.'s entire season be considered in the voting process?

Rick Sutcliffe is the only player to be traded mid-season and end up winning the Cy Young for the league he was traded to. Sutcliffe was dealt from Cleveland to the Cubs on June 13 in 1984. Given Sutcliffe's less than stellar performance while with Cleveland (4-5, 94.3 IP, 5.15 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 58 K) and his near perfect run in Chicago, it's seems the voters didn't give his time in Cleveland much thought. Sutcliffe also faced a seemingly better pitcher in the voting that year. It may have been because he was a rookie or his team finished second to Sutcliffe's Cubs, but Dwight Gooden was better than Sutcliffe over 68 more innings and didn't get a single first place vote (Sutcliffe won unanimously).

1984 NL Cy Young Award Results

Player	Team (WP)	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	1st Place Votes^
Rick Sutcliffe	CHC (.596)	16-1	150	2.69	1.08	155	24
Dwight Gooden	NYM (.556)*	17-9	218	2.60	1.07	276	0
Bruce Sutter	STL (.519)*	5-7 (45 SV)	123	1.54	1.08	77	0
Joaquin Andujar	STL (.519)*	20-14	261	3.34	1.10	147	0

*Team did not reach playoffs
^Out of 24 possible votes

The precedent set by Sutcliffe shows that voters are not necessarily swayed by total innings or even if the pitcher has spent the entire season in the same league. Sutcliffe struggled the entire time he was in the AL that season (C.C. had a bad April, but was dominant after that), but like Sabathia, dominated after being traded to the NL. If anything, Sutcliffe's poor first half should have worked against him, but instead the voters saw the impact he made during a partial season in Chicago and ran with it. I think there is a strong chance Sabathia will benefit in the voting by helping Milwaukee to the playoffs in a similar manner.

I probably wouldn't vote for Sabathia if his time in the AL was banned from consideration. Technically, the NL CY is only supposed to consider innings logged in that league and the Sutcliffe vote showed that any AL starts tend to be ignored (that 5.15 ERA in the first half really sticks out).

If C.C. is limited to his NL starts, the gap in innings (over 100), wins (7), and strikeouts (over 130) compared to Lincecum is just too great to truly justify voting for Sabathia. The seven complete games and five shutouts are impressive, but unfortunately don't deserve to carry as much weight since Sabathia appeared to gain an edge from the fact that the Brewers' didn't need to worry about his arm beyond 2008. As great as Sabathia's impact was on the Brewers' second half, his 14.2 pitching win shares trail Johan Santana by 4.1 and Lincecum by 9.6.

I figured Sabathia would have been closer in win shares considering how bad the rest of the Brewers have been lately. Milwaukee went 49-40 (.550) before the trade and just 41-33 (.554) after, so it's safe to say they would have missed the playoffs by a wide margin with a slumping offense and an injured Ben Sheets had they not made the trade (again, a matter of circumstance).

The NL leader in wins, Brandon Webb, doesn't really deserve to be grouped in with those three pitchers; he just isn't good enough this year. I opted to include Webb into the table below anyway because he is still a serious candidate for the CY in the eyes of the voter. There are a few other pitchers who have come close to or surpassed Webb's performance this season (Cole Hamels gets honorable mention here), but have not been as good as the Big Three and are too far behind Webb in wins to have a realistic shot at getting many first place votes this year, so they were excluded from the conversation.

2008 NL Cy Young Candidates

Player	Team (WP)	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	CG	SHO	Pitching WS
C.C. Sabathia	MIL (.554)	11-2	130.7	1.65	1.00^	128	7^	3^	14.2
T. Lincecum	SF (.444)	18-5	227.0	2.62	1.17	265^	2	1	23.8
J. Santana	NYM (.549)	16-7	234.3	2.53^	1.14	206	3	2	18.3
B. Webb	ARI (.506)	22^ -7	226.7	3.30	1.19	183	3	1	18.8

^Leads or ties NL

The Sutcliffe precedent may ultimately work against Sabathia because his AL starts are impressive in their own right. Here are Sabathia's total stats for 2008:

C.C. Sabathia Totals for 2008 Season

Team (WP)	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	CG	SHO	Pitching WS
TOTAL (.493)	17-10	253.0	2.70	1.11	251	10	5	22.4

After taking all of the above factors into account, I think I would stop just short of calling Sabathia the best pitcher in baseball this season. Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay are the only two pitchers who would cause me to pause in terms of who has compiled the best overall season (yes, I'm backtracking a bit and saying Halladay may be more deserving of the CY than Lee).

Considering Sabathia only had a 116 ERA+ (adjusted by league, 100 indicating an average pitcher) with Cleveland and a ridiculous 262 ERA+ with Milwaukee, I think the difference in leagues has to be taken into account when comparing Halladay, Lee, and Sabathia in 2008. Lee's ERA+ of 175 and Halladay's 155 actually makes their respective campaigns even more impressive since they weren't able to feast upon National League lineups after the All Star Break.

So in conclusion, does Sabathia deserve the National League Cy Young Award?

Probably not.

Will he win it?

No, I'd put my money on Lincecum by a slight margin over Santana.

Fun Fact

The Cy Young Award was initially given to the single best pitcher in the Major Leagues from 1956 to 1966. Sandy Koufax was the last pitcher to win the unified title of best pitcher in 1966.

Isaac Out as Bullpen Coach

Longtime bullpen coach, Luis Isaac, was dismissed from the team this week. The announcement was made by Manager Eric Wedge, who apparently had the last word on the decision. Fans and the media alike seem to be surprised by the move, as there was no indication that Isaac had done anything to warrant getting fired this season. Even insiders like Tribe beatwriter Anthony Castrovince said he was "stunned" to hear the news, so the events leading up to the firing were really kept quiet.

A legitimate explanation has yet to be released and we may not find out why Isaac was let go for a while, if at all. Wedge did point out that Isaac was not being fired on account of the bullpen's poor performance this year, which led me to believe this was a personal matter. My initial guess was some sort of confrontation or rift occured between Isaac and another member of the coaching staff. Whatever it was, the team doesn't want to share the details.

The Diatriber provided a likely scenario in a post on Let's Go Tribe:

I think this is a move to clear the way for Scott Radinsky to replace Luis in the bullpen. Radinsky is ALWAYS lauded by the organization for righting players that are sent to him (Jen Lewis) or trying to put the finishing touches on young arms (I seem to remember a piece on him wanting to keep Stevens in AAA until he was “ready” for MLB) before they come to the parent club.

Who knows how the Isaac thing went down and why he wasn’t simply re-assigned, but my guess is that they decided that they wanted to get Radinsky into the Tribe bullpen and asked Luis to take another position. If he refused, he’s shown the door. Maybe more was in play, but I think it’s a matter of getting Radinsky up here with all of the young arms that he’s helped develop over the last few years.

This makes sense in terms of trying to advance the organization and Radinsky does seem like a logical replacement for Isaac. Still, I'm sad to hear that Luis is no longer with the team after 43 years. Isaac was first appointed bullpen coach in 1993 and has become sort of an institution at the Jake; one of the few constants left from that era of Indians baseball.

I wish Luis good luck at the next stop in his career, I'm sure he won't have much trouble finding an organization that values his pitching expertise.

Bull***

A lot of things have gone wrong for the Tribe this season. The heart of the order has spent most of the season on the disabled list. Injuries to the starting rotation have given way to open tryouts. Many of these blips you just can't build into the off-season shopping list. Every time I go through the long list of things that have gone haywire though, I keep getting hung up on the bullpen.

The bullpen is tricky because on one hand it appeared strong in the off-season and you can only dump so much money into what would likely amount to insurance policies. On the other hand, it should have been obvious to the experts in the Front Office (not so much to me as I'm obviously not an expert on anything) that some of the pillars holding up the relief corps were baring a few cracks.

Cleveland's bullpen was one of the best in the Majors last year and boasted a 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 49 saves. Betancourt had a career year and was the undisputed king of the 8th inning. Rookies Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis made an impact in the late innings and seemed primed to contribute in 2008. I personally hyped up the arrival of Masahide Kobayashi as a key addition for 2008 based on his experience as a closer in Japan. The Front Office was very familiar with the volatility of relief pitching, but the pros appeared to outweigh the cons with the Tribe's bullpen core heading into 2008.

Like every off-season, risk assessment is a big part of deciding how heavily to lean on certain players and how much money to spend. Cleveland took a gamble with Joe Borowski's arm and it backfired; there's not much else to it. The team certainly didn't go in without a backup plan though, far from it. In fact, I advocated making Kobayashi the closer once Borowski went down (oops). Masa was added as depth for the pen and I feel that the Tribe got him as a backup in case a late inning role became vacant. Masa's backup role (speculation on my part) was never officially stated by the team, not that anyone expected them to say something like that with Borowski's name still at the top of the depth chart.

Borowski went down with a triceps strain in May and never regained his lost velocity (the velocity was down before, but the injury didn't help). Borowski saw three more save opportunities in June before being released July 1 (he ended up on a minor league contract with Boston, but has not contributed in the Majors again).

Cleveland's first line of defense in case of a Borowski implosion was Rafael Betancourt. Betancourt was the interim closer from late April to the end of May. Raffy didn't take well to the closer's role, but I think that was more reflective of his struggles in the entire first half than anything else. Betancourt posted a 6.38 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 4.33 K/BB ratio, and converted 4/6 saves over 14.1 IP during his initial foray into closing from April 24 to May 28.

I still think Betancourt has what it takes to be an effective closer, but it was a matter of the wrong guy at the wrong time in 2008. Betancourt's 6.00 ERA before the All Star break made it clear that he was not pitching at 100% and really wasn't a viable option for closer at the time. Granted, the team was desperate and probably just following their plan; somebody had to pitch the final inning with Borowski hurt.

Kobayashi was the primary closer from mid May to late July, but it soon became clear that the transition to the Majors and, more importantly, the career high in innings was taking its toll. Kobayashi posted a solid 3.05 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.54 K/BB ratio, and converted 5/7 save opportunities in 44.1 IP before the All Star break. Kobayashi has only exceeded 50 IP in his career three times in nine Pro Yakyu seasons ('01, '04, '06). It may be coincidental, but Masa's two highest season ERA's in Japan occurred when he pitched 52 (4.33 ERA) and 57 innings (3.90 ERA), respectively. I think these ERA spikes are notable in that Kobayashi owns a career ERA of 2.79 in the Pro Yakyu League.

As the 34 year old Kobayashi crept toward the 50 IP mark in his rookie season his pitches began to lose some of their effectiveness, resulting in more multi-run innings. Cleveland opted to cut Masa's innings in the second half from an average of 12.12 per month from April to July, to just 3 each in August and September.

It appears that Cleveland may have been banking too much on Betancourt and Kobayashi (assuming they viewed him as a major cog for 2008). I don't think it's a matter of hindsight either, since certain information was available during the off-season. One point that I had alluded to in a previous post was Betancourt's innings load last season.

After shattering his career high in IP of 67.7 (2005) by 21.6 (includes post season) and throwing so many high leverage, stressful innings in 2007, common sense would dictate that something had to give.

I'm not talking about a typical regression (that was already obvious given Raffy's god-like numbers), I'm talking about a more drastic change be it a tired arm or more serious injury. Raffy's performance clearly shows something went wrong between 2007 and 2008. My theory is that he's had a nagging injury all season that was precipitated by his being the bullpen's workhorse last year. This would match up with reports of back stiffness and an obvious loss of control (career worst 2.52 K/BB ratio in 2008). I don't know how much concern Betancourt's 2007 work load caused the team, but it seems like Betancourt was supposed to be the key to the bullpen a second straight year.

Besides the announced back issue, I still can't pinpoint what may be bothering Betancourt. Considering the team signed him to a three year deal last winter, you'd think they'd have shut him down at this point in a lost season if he had a truly serious injury. Maybe he's not hurt and the best thing is for him to work out whatever control issues he's having, I honestly don't know.

There was risk in signing Kobayashi, although I'd be short-changing the team's scouts to suggest they didn't do their homework on the guy. Still the question of whether Masa would make a smooth transition to the Major Leagues must have been hanging over Cleveland's head as they finalized the bullpen for Opening Day. I feel that Masa made a successful adjustment to the Majors, but his season was derailed by fatigue in the end. Either way, Kobayashi did not fit the profile of an impact pitcher heading into 2008.

All these issues lead back to the need for a contingency plan at closer. With the team's two veteran setup men reeling, the team was left without enough quality arms to fill in for the 8th and 9th. Unfortunately, the team couldn't have Perez toss a two inning save every time (although old-school closers like Goose Gossage often did), since he was already being heavily utilized everywhere but the 9th. The bullpen ended up being spread too thin, despite apparent fail-safes meant to prevent such a severe collapse in the hierarchy.

So lesson one, the team really can't afford to leave the closer job up to anyone less than a proven, healthy pitcher for 2009. No closer by committee, no wait-and-see on a guy held together by duct tape, but a full time, established closer. This is easier said than done because truly reliable closers tend to be hard to come by.

It's been said before, but the closer role really is the anchor for the entire bullpen. Cleveland has to go into 2009 with that anchor or they'll encounter the same problems they've had this year.

The basic bullpen structure seems to revolve around five "core" pitchers who handle the bulk of the innings. Besides the closer and setup man, there tends to be a second, reliable reliever who covers the 7th-8th, a strong middle reliever who comes in to protect the lead, and a weaker middle reliever who comes in to eat innings and contain the damage when the team is behind. This is just the impression I got from checking out how other teams tend to structure their bullpen (more detail on this later).

With the army of relievers the Tribe has marched out this year, it may not seem like the bullpen really fits into this mold. Cleveland does have a potentially strong core of relievers who fit this archetype for 2009 though (yes, I realize my use of the word "potentially" is hypocritical to a degree, since I just got done preaching about how the team left too much to chance this year. I wasn't saying you can eliminate risk, but felt the team didn't place as much weight on certain factors as they should have in the past. Hopefully they are better prepared in 2009, even though financial and depth restraints are never easy to navigate).

Player	Role
Free Agent	Closer
R. Perez	Setup
R. Betancourt	7th-8th; top tier
J. Lewis	6th-8th; top tier
M. Kobayashi	7th-8th; mid tier
E. Mujica	Cleanup

This roster currently has a few assumptions built into it:

1.) Perez's numbers level out from his modest 2007 decline and he doesn't suffer any ill effects from an 80 inning season.

2.) Betancourt is 100% healthy again and reverts back to his career average performance. Raffy hasn't been dominant at all this season, but he has shown signs of progress with a 3.71 ERA in his last 26.2 IP compared to a 6.00 ERA in his previous 42.

3.) Lewis holds steady in his second full season. He may have struggled in June and July with a 6.87 ERA, but has an excellent 2.90 ERA in his last 31 IP. Lewis has also made a strong case for himself by going 12 for 12 in save opportunities during that stretch.

4.) Kobayashi significantly improves his endurance (this may be tough, given his age).

Those four players give Cleveland some good pieces to work with heading into the off-season, but there are still a few mines to traverse in that list, even with the optimistic outlook I have for 2009. I think in addition to the acquisition of a closer, a big boost for next season's bullpen will come out of the minor leagues.

A major strength of the pen in 2007 was the depth available in the minors, but outside of Mujica there just wasn't much available in 2008. I think that will change next season.

The bullpen absolutely has to be retooled for 2009 or this team isn't going anywhere. A team that goes into the playoffs, let alone the regular season, with a weak bullpen is just shooting itself in the foot before they even leave the starting line. Cleveland may have paid the price for having too much confidence in and/or overtaxing their relievers in 2007, but they will not be making the same mistakes twice.

In Part II, I'll break down some interesting minor league pitchers that may be ready to contribute to Cleveland's bullpen in 2009. I'll also take a look at the projected free agent market for closers.

Fun Fact

Jhonny Peralta became the first Indians shortstop to ever hit 20 homeruns and 40 doubles in a single season. - courtesy of STO

Tribe Signs Collegiate Standout from Taiwan

Cleveland finalized negotiations with right handed pitching prospect Chen-Chang Lee earlier this week. The 21 year old Lee is a native of Taiwan and started for his national team in the Beijing Olympics.

According to Cleveland's Assistant General Manager of Scouting, John Mirabelli, the team has scouted Lee since he was 16 years old. Cleveland reportedly offered Lee a contract in the past, but was turned down. Lee chose to attend Taipei Ti Wu college before going pro, the same school that produced Chien Ming Wang.

A Chinese news source translated by the blog Taiwan Baseball reports Lee "received a $350K signing bonus + a possible $90K for tuition if he performs well in the fall instructional league. Aside from the high six figure offer from a NPB team, Lee received interest from the Indians and 4 other ML teams. The other clubs' offers were all rumored to have been less than $150K (with the Twins offering less than $100K). The article also goes on to say that the reason for some of the scout's apprehension with not offering/or the lower offer for Lee, was because of Lee's limited upside (will probably be a middle reliever) and that he was over utilized in Taiwan."

Apparently, Lee and other Taiwanese pitchers were viewed by multiple Major League scouts at the Olympics. Lee may have boosted his value recently with a strong performance in Beijing. Lee surrendered just 3 H, 2 BB, and 1 ER with 7 SO over 6.2 IP against the Cuban national team. He followed that strong outing up with 2.1 IP, 1 ER, and 4 SO against the United States. Lee has participated in various collegiate and amateur leagues during his career, as well and is highly regarded in Taiwan.

On his blog, Castronvince writes that Lee "reportedly throws a sinker, slider and split-finger. His fastball is said to max out at 94 mph." Lee also features a side-arm delivery, which is one reason scouts view him as a reliever if he ever makes the Majors. In a 2007 ESPN.com article, Keith Law described Lee as a "fast return on investment" and "the top college pitcher" in Taiwanese baseball. According to previous reports cited by Taiwan Baseball, Lee has encountered some shoulder injuries in the past. Given the extent to which Lee has been scouted and a successful physical, his shoulder does not appear to be a major concern at this point.

Lee is expected to report to Class-A Kinston for the 2009 season.

On Pacific Rim Baseball

Even if Lee does not make an impact in the Major Leagues, his signing may serve as another stepping stone for Cleveland baseball in East Asia. Cleveland has been very active throughout the region for several years and all signs point to Asia as an emerging hot bed for baseball prospects. Taiwan, South Korea, and China have joined Japan in producing Major League caliber players and MLB has started to aggressively promote the sport in these emerging regions. Lee is one of Taiwan's best known players and his career with the Tribe should draw a fair amount of interest there. His signing may encourage prospects to take a closer look at Cleveland's system in the future.

The Dodgers have had a strong presence in China since the 1980s when they teamed up with the China Baseball Association. The partnership led to visits by Dodgers coaches and scouts, field construction, baseball clinics, and youth leagues in China. The Dodgers and Padres played two exhibition games in China last Spring, marking the first meeting of two MLB teams in the country.

MLB has had a flurry of activity the past two years, establishing grass roots programs to promote the sport, signing an agreement with Chinese television to air the World Series, and hosting the Chinese National team at this year's Arizona Fall League.

The Yankees began collaborating with the Chinese Baseball Association last year on ways to develop and promote baseball in China. New York became the first MLB team to sign Chinese players in pitcher Kai Liu and catcher Zhenwang Zhang, both 19 years old. Further utilizing their well-known name, the Yankees also became the first MLB team to sign a sponsorship deal with a Chinese company.

Seattle signed two more Chinese players later on in 2007, catcher Wei Wang and infielder/outfielder Yu Bingjia.

Taiwan was represented in the Majors well before 2007. Yankees ace Chien-Ming Wang is by far the most famous and had an outstanding sophomore season in 2006 (19-6, 218 IP, 3.63 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 1.46 K/BB). The Dodgers have had four Taiwanese players in their system since 2002 (Chin-Feng Chen, Chin-Lung Hu, Hong-Chih Kuo, Chin-hui Tsao), while Colorado (Chin-hui Tsao) and Cleveland have each signed one.

Cleveland's prospect, relief pitcher Sung-Wei Tseng, split the 2008 season in Kinston (5.27 ERA, 54.2 IP) and Akron (8.80 ERA, 15.1 IP), where he has apparently been struggling.

Checking In with the Late Additions

In keeping with the Spring Training theme for the second half of the season, Cleveland’s roster went through some major changes in September. A few players finally returned from injuries, but most are just in town for a hard earned cup-of-coffee. With so many players vying for work, it can be hard to keep track of who’s done what, so I thought I’d take a brief look at how some of the rookies and returning veterans have fared since joining the club (I intentionally left the relief pitchers out, but will get to the bullpen as a whole in my next post).

Michael Aubrey

Aubrey actually started six games at first base and one as a DH with Cleveland way back in May (.674 OPS, 2 HR, 30 PA). In 72 games with Buffalo this year, Aubrey compiled a .281 AVG, .328 OBP, .418 SLG line along with 18 doubles and 7 homeruns. Despite average production at the plate, his 97 minor league games are by far the most he’s played in a season since 2004 (98 games), making Aubrey’s health a bright spot for 2008.

The 26 year old has been slow to advance through the minors and 2008 marks his first appearance in Cleveland. The main reason Aubrey hasn’t been able to string together a lights out season in the high minors is a disheartening series of back and lower body injuries. So to be fair, Aubrey may well possess the ability to succeed, but his body has failed him over his career.

According to minor league guru Tony Lastoria, Aubrey is also out of minor league options after this season and the logjam at first base does not bode well for the oft injured infielder. Cleveland really needs all the help it can get at first though, so a fresh face is certainly welcome.

Aubrey has only appeared in five games so far, but seems to be getting a start in roughly every other game. In a miniscule 17 PA, Aubrey has collected four hits, two walks, and an RBI. It’s way too late in the season to get a real bead on whether Aubrey can handle Major League pitching, but he’ll likely glean a few starts from the mix of Garko and Martinez.

I’m not sure if the presence of Martinez and Aubrey (kind of hard to ignore) has provided Garko with some extra motivation lately, but his offense has picked up considerably. Unfortunately, even with a (relatively) hot August Garko still isn’t making a strong case for retaining his starting gig next season.

Even with the current issues at first, I have a feeling Aubrey may be traded or let go this off-season since he’s out of options, injury prone, and is facing competition at first base from incumbents and other minor leaguers.

Josh Barfield

Barfield has run into a disappointing combination of bad luck and poor performance this year. In what was supposed to be a bounce back season, Barfield struggled to gain any traction in Buffalo. Over 73 games in AAA, Barfield managed a weak .251, .292, .368 line in 320 PA. There’s barely been any improvement between his 444 Major League PA’s in 2007 (.243, .270, .324) and his time in the minors now. That’s bad news no matter how you slice it.

I’ve always wanted to take a closer look at Barfield’s decline, but at first glance his career is just puzzling to me. How does a player who posted consecutive OPS’ of .922, .728, and .820 through Class A+, AA, and AAA take such a drastic nosedive just when he’s supposed to be entering his prime? Barfield was only 23 years old when he hit .280 with 13 HR and 32 doubles with the Padres. At age 25, he seems destined to be a total bust as a major leaguer.

Cleveland promoted him as a more experienced alternative to Asdrubal Cabrera back in early June. The very next game, Barfield was hit by a ball that resulted in surgery on a tendon in his middle finger. I don’t think anybody was expecting Josh to tear the cover off the ball, but I still feel sorry for the guy. While Barfield rehabbed the finger, Cabrera essentially locked up second base and threw away the key (bad for Barfield, good for the team and Cabrera).

Barfield has started a game in the last two series (@BAL, KC), but that’s it since he was rehabbing before that. I wouldn’t be surprised if Barfield gets a few more token starts, but he’s basically out of a job with the sudden emergence of Cabrera (I doubt he factored into the team’s plans this early, otherwise why trade for Barfield later that year?).

Victor Martinez

Victor may have made his final minor league rehab start the last week of August, but as far as I’m concerned he’s still rehabbing. The team planned on bringing Martinez along very slowly in his return from elbow surgery. Martinez has actually seen more playing time than I expected in the past two weeks, rotating between first, catcher, and DH over 11 starts.

The fact that Martinez has appeared comfortable behind the plate (even playing consecutive games there) tells me that he’s close to 100% health-wise. I doubt the timing on his swing is quite up to speed yet based on how long he couldn’t swing a bat and that he hadn’t faced ML pitching for quite a while (think of it as a player who missed spring training and had to start the season cold). Even so, Martinez has looked pretty good over the past two weeks, posting a solid .290, .378, .452 line with 9 H, 8 RBI, and 6 R in 8 starts. He’s hardly been dead-weight in the lineup, which is exactly what Cleveland wanted to see before the season ended.

The main thing missing from Martinez’s season thus far was his ability to drive the ball. Over 130 PA’s in May and June (I excluded April because I don’t think the elbow was seriously hindering him yet), Victor’s SLG was a paltry .267. Considering his career SLG is .463, it’s fairly obvious injuries were sapping Martinez’s power. Since the surgery, Martinez has a .466 SLG and hit his first two taters of the season. It’s been like night and day since Martinez had elbow surgery, so I wouldn’t worry about him for 2009.

Travis Hafner

Hafner was just activated off the 60-day DL on September 9, so there’s not a lot to report here in terms of in-game action. Wedge has been using Hafner about every other day (that seems to be the trend with such a crowded bench) in the middle of the lineup as DH.

In case you missed it earlier, Hafner’s right shoulder was the reason he was out all season. Anthony Castrovince quoted Head Trainer Lonnie Soloff on the injury:

“Hafner was able to build up the muscles surrounding his clavicle, and that had the effect of masking what was going on in the scapula (shoulder blade) area. Beneath the surface, the muscles around Pronk's scapula were wasting away, unbeknownst to the player and the team. Both parties insist Hafner wasn't bothered by the shoulder in 2007.”

Last I heard, Hafner was still working his way back and continuing to strengthen his shoulder. The shoulder was strong enough to ruin the Bowie Baysox playoff run though. Batting behind human wrecking ball Matt La Porta (.462 AVG, 5 R, 5 RBI vs. Bowie), Hafner went 2-6 with 2 bombs and 7 RBI in two games.

Hafner is in a similar situation to Martinez in that he is basically starting his season over again ice cold. I’ve only seen Hafner bat in a couple games, but he’s definitely not in any kind of groove right now. His timing is off and he seems to have a hard time squaring up the fastball. One positive is that Hafner isn’t swinging at balls out of the zone very often, so he is showing some patience at the plate.

Oddly enough, Baltimore’s manager still respected Hafner’s bat enough to issue an intentional walk to him with men in scoring position. Hafner has three hits and four strikeouts in four September starts with Cleveland.

Asdrubal Cabrera

Since returning from Buffalo on July 18 AstroCab has racked up a .307, .390, .464 line, 11 2B, 5 HR, 25 R, 26 RBI and 3 SB in 50 starts and 201 PA.

Yeah, that’s pretty awesome. Next….

Zach Jackson

Jackson may have played his way out the conversation for sixth starter in 2009. The young left-hander got crushed by the Twins on Tuesday, surrendering 7 ER on 9 hits and a walk over 5.1 IP. Jackson has been a bit of a wild card in his brief stay with the Tribe, averaging 5.88 innings per start with a 6.48 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

His tendency to attack the strike zone (63% of his pitches are strikes) and 3.66 K/BB ratio aren’t bad, but Jackson has a tendency to give up runs in bunches. Over 19% of Jackson’s innings have ended with multiple runs scoring. When he gets hit, he gets hit hard.

Jackson’s last two starts are on the road against Boston and Chicago, so he still has a chance to reassert himself versus the field.

Scott Lewis

No disrespect to Lewis, but I’m not sure I’d heard of him before he was called up last week. The 24 year old Ohio State alum has been tearing up Class AA hitters this season. Lewis boasts a 2.33 ERA, .97 WHIP, and 6.77 K/BB ratio over 73.1 IP (5.62 per start) with Akron. He also made a smooth transition to Buffalo, posting a 2.63 ERA, .96 WHIP, and 5.25 K/BB ratio in his first four starts.

Lewis went on to pitch eight shutout innings at Baltimore in his debut. He followed it up with a six inning, three hit, five strikeout shutout against Minnesota, which definitely turned some heads. Like I said, I don’t know much about Lewis, but fortunately Tony Lastoria provides a detailed scouting report on his blog:

“To the casual observer, Lewis' high strikeout rate would seem to indicate he throws some serious heat; however, this is not the case. Lewis has a fastball that consistently sits around 87-89 MPH and tops out at 91 MPH, but his tremendous command of his secondary pitches along with good arm action and deception throughout his delivery makes his fastball play up and look faster. He also throws a curveball and changeup, and the power and depth he has added to his nasty 12-6 curveball has made it one of the best in the system. His changeup has developed into a plus pitch, and he gets a lot of action on his pitches in the strike zone.”

The array of tools and an impressive minor league track record makes Lewis an interesting player to watch going forward. The thing I was most impressed with was Lewis’ focus in his first two Major League starts. How many guys can jump from Class AA to the Majors and show no sign of nerves in their performance? I’ll be sure to catch Lewis’ remaining starts this season.

Anthony Reyes

I’ve talked about Reyes in depth before, so this is more of a minor update. Reyes left his September 5 start after the third inning because of soreness in his throwing elbow. It turns out the elbow inflammation has been slow to heal, so the team opted to shut down Reyes for the final weeks of the season.

According to Anthony Castrovince, “St. Louis had bounced [Reyes] between starting and relief work, and the Indians think that might have contributed to his elbow trouble.”

Reyes has looked like a steal early on, compiling a 1.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 1.25 K/BB ratio over 6 starts (5.71 IP per start). Tribe Manager Eric Wedge feels confident about Reyes despite the minor setback with his elbow:

"He did a great job with his fastball. His changeup is a plus pitch, and I saw more of a breaking ball than was advertised. He's stoic. Nothing fazed him. Obviously, there's going to be strong competition, but he's pitched as well as anybody in that group."

Barring any free agent signings, I have a hunch Reyes will be a frontrunner for fifth starter at the outset of the 2009 season.

Road Trip

I'll be visiting the North Coast this week, but unfortunately I didn't have much time to prepare any content for while I'm gone. So as always, thanks for visiting and check back next week for the latest post.

Go Tribe