Aces Wild

I haven’t posted much lately, as the last week or so has been pretty rough. To be honest, I still don’t have much of a taste for baseball right now, which is an extremely rare occurrence for me. I can’t even watch the World Series, it’s just too painful. Plus, it already looks like the Colorado Flameouts are going to roll over for the Boston Yankees anyway, so it’s not like I’m missing anything special. My initial reaction after Cleveland played its final game of the season certainly included anger, sadness, and all the like. The most prominent feeling was that of loss; as if something had been taken from me. It was a hollow feeling.

Despite all the pain left over from last week, the sting has subsided considerably. First off, my expectations going in were realistic, at best. I viewed the ALCS as a near even match up, hinging on the performance of a few select players. It’s hard to swallow a loss that could have easily swung to either team, but it doesn’t make any sense to dwell on a proverbial coin flip.

Boston was every bit as good as Cleveland going in, maybe a little better. The fact that Cleveland was such a large underdog was pure media hype; both teams featured similar traits and achieved near equal success before their meeting. The series went seven games for a reason. Yes, Cleveland won three in a row, pushing Boston to the brink. But just as Cleveland proved it could win three, so did Boston. There was nothing magical about Boston’s comeback. The timing was the thing. What if the roles were reversed and Cleveland came back from three down to win it? Would that be considered “clutch” play by Cleveland or a “choke” by Boston? It depends on who you ask. As I said, this series was a coin flip.

You may be wondering when I’m going to cut the philosophical, intangible slant. Well, that was just for a bit of perspective. One of the key factors that shifted the balance of power came down to two players: Sabathia and Carmona. Sabathia had been far from his usual self in Game 1 of the Division Series, while Carmona was absolutely brilliant. Fans took the optimistic view that Sabathia would bounce back and Carmona would carry his dominance into the ALCS; both fair assumptions. Obviously, neither came true and it killed the Tribe’s chances. Below are the ALCS stats for the two pitchers:

Game	Player	Team Result	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	HR	Pitches-Strikes	GB-FB Outs
ALCS Game 1	Sabathia	Loss	4.1	7	8	5	3	0	85-44	4-3
ALCS Game 5		Loss	6	10	4	2	6	1	112-70	7-2

Game	Player	Team Result	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	HR	Pitches-Strikes	GB-FB Outs
ALCS Game 2	Carmona	Win	4	4	4	5	5	2	100-51	4-2
ALCS Game 6		Loss	2	6	7	4	2	1	63-33	2-1

Cleveland went 1-3 with their two best starting pitchers on the mound. Carmona did not factor into the decision for the single win, since his one run lead evaporated shortly after his departure in the 4^th inning. The sole fact that Cleveland lost three of the four is not the overarching issue. Beckett and Schilling faced off against Sabathia and Carmona twice respectively, so it’s not as if the Tribe folded to a couple of patsies in those games.

The issue is the individual performance of Sabathia and Carmona in the series. Cleveland’s chances of winning Games 1 and 6 were slim to none after the mess (to put it politely) C.C. and Fausto left behind. Granted, the offense had its share of struggles, but the fact that the offense never had a shot to win Games 1 and 6 is obvious. I believe momentum and a team’s confidence are factors in the playoffs and Sabathia and Carmona made every start an uphill battle for the rest of the team.

By failing to adapt to Boston’s lineup (or contain Ramirez and Ortiz), C.C. and Fausto set themselves up for failure. If their plan of attack wasn’t failing them, their lack of command and dominant pitches were. The two pitchers gave up nearly a walk per inning pitched, combined. Allowing so many batters to reach base gave each start a tension that had to have worn on the pitchers. Even when Carmona and Sabathia gave up only four runs, Games 2 and 5 felt like they were just a bloop single away from disaster; the two were that shaky.

The inability go at least six (or even five, I’m not picky) innings placed all four games in the hands of the bullpen. The Cleveland bullpen is great, but Sabathia and Carmona placed a daunting task before the bullpen each night. The bullpen should not be expected to take on the job of the starting pitcher in four, high pressure games like that. Actually, scratch that, two of the games were blowouts, so I guess that relieves some of the pressure. Still, the bullpen was overworked. When a team’s setup man comes out for two innings in the middle of the game, someone didn’t do their job.

Cleveland led only once (in Game 2), allowing Boston’s pitchers to be more aggressive and take more chances. The pressure was always on the offense to catch up, as if facing Beckett and Schilling weren’t difficult enough already. The offense certainly missed some opportunities to break out against Boston’s pitching in these games, but Sabathia and Carmona did not provide the contributions Cleveland needed to keep up with Boston.

In such an even match up, Cleveland needed every advantage it could get. Sabathia and Carmona were supposed to be the advantage, outside of the Tribe’s bullpen, but they came up well short of what was required to win.

This does not change the fact that Sabathia and Carmona were as good a reason as any that Cleveland made the playoffs in the first place. It also doesn’t change the fact that Carmona owns one of the all-time great postseason pitching performances by an Indians pitcher, single-handedly winning a pivotal Game 2 against New York. When Tribe fans debate the 2007 ALCS though, Sabathia and Carmona should shoulder a significant part of the burden.

I don’t plan on fuming about the playoffs any more this season, so in my next post I’ll finally get around to Shap’s press conference and look back on some of the highlights from a great season.

Disappointment

I don't blame C.C. Sabathia for Game 5.

Sabathia made vast improvements since Game 1 of the ALCS where he walked 5 and gave up 8 runs in 4.1 innings. There's really no comparison between the two starts, which is good news for Cleveland.

In Game 5, C.C. gave up 4 ER, 10 H, and a HR over 6 IP. The most important stat of the night was the fact he only surrendered 2 walks, while throwing 62.5% of his pitches for strikes. Again, this is a near complete turnaround from 5 walks and 51.7% pitches for strikes in his last start. Throw in 6 strikeouts and you have a solid bounce-back start for the Tribe's ace. Not great, but certainly winnable.

As encouraging as Sabathia’s Game 5 seems on the surface, the numbers lie a little bit. Sabathia's more aggressive approach (more strikes, less nibbling) resulted in less walks, but his stuff was far from dominant. Instead, he gave up 10 hits and allowed at least one baserunner in every inning except the 6th. He also hit two batters and threw a wild pitch. C.C. walked a thin line all night, owing a saved run to Gutz in the 1st, narrowly avoiding an additional run from Ramirez's "single" in the 3rd, and escaping from a bases loaded jam in the 5th.

Like a Joe Borowski save, the bottom line is what matters most. C.C. got the job done tonight by giving his team a chance to win.

I’m still on the fence as to whether Wedge should have brought Sabathia back out for the 7th inning. Wedge had to have known he was playing with fire by having Sabathia face the top of Boston’s lineup again. The 7th would have been C.C.’s fourth time facing Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ortiz. Based on the lead-off double and triple from said batters, Sabathia wasn’t fooling anyone. At 106 stress-filled pitches, Sabathia probably didn’t have much left in the tank and may have been struggling with his focus.

I understand why Wedge stuck with C.C., but it was still a very risky decision. Wedge said if he had pulled C.C. after six, Betancourt would have had to pitch two innings and the remaining reliever matchups would have been difficult to deal with; these were things Wedge did not think benefited the team in the long run. Wedge also cited Sabathia was having his best start of the playoffs and didn’t want to hamper his rhythm or confidence. He felt Sabathia could handle the large pitch count, citing past starts where he threw 120 pitches.

I emphasized Wedge’s long term mentality to the situation because I feel it’s important in understanding his decision. The team has been riding Betancourt the entire postseason. Betancourt leads the regular relievers with 6.1 innings pitched and has appeared in four of the five ALCS games. Jensen Lewis is not far behind with 5.1 IP. This may not seem like much, but you have to rest these guys at some point. Many people will point to the two off-days dividing the series as enough rest, but Wedge knows how his pitchers feel better than we do. I think some of the bullpen guys are feeling a little drained, otherwise Wedge would not have expressed concern when citing his reasons for sticking with Sabathia.

Wedge did not concede the game in the 7th inning; he took a calculated risk that backfired. Further proof of this is Betancourt having to pitch anyway in an attempt to preserve the 3-1 deficit Sabathia left behind.

Despite my dwelling on Wedge and C.C., Beckett’s performance was the real story of Game 5. If any other Boston starter was on the mound tonight, I think Cleveland would have won this game.

Wedge cited a lack of adjustment by his players as a contributing factor. It’s good to hear the manager get in the players’ ear a bit. Wedge’s analysis makes sense, as the Tribe started strong against Beckett. Cleveland had three hits and a run against Beckett in the first inning, but managed only two hits and a walk the rest of the night. I realize Beckett was pounding the strike zone and threw all kinds of filth, but Cleveland drew first blood early on and failed to counter Beckett’s game. Obviously this is easier said than done as no one has touched Beckett all post-season, but given the infrequency of overtly negative comments from Wedge, I think the criticism holds some water.

The offense can not allow Schilling to fall into a similar rhythm in Game 6.

On Lofton

Did anyone else want to see Lofton KO Beckett cold? I really, really wanted to see Beckett leave with a bloody nose after screaming at Lofton while he jogged to first after a pop-up. Yeah, I know Lofton would have faced a suspension for the rest of the series, but the mental image of the Mayor of Cleveland slamming Beckett the Blister with a left hook combo is just awesome.

Fortunately, Lofton is too classy to take a swing at another player, even if that player is a preening prima donna who thinks he’s God’s gift to baseball. Seriously, Beckett has become the A-Rod of pitching. Aren’t there enough smug, blowhards in the AL East? That division is like a personality roach-motel. It’s too bad Albert Belle wasn’t the one jogging to first, because that would have been entertaining.

The Other Pitcher

Hey Boston, remember that third starter Cleveland has? The one that got next to no attention leading up to the ALCS and was dismissed as a weak link in the rotation after getting bombed by New York? Remember him? Of course you don't, but Jake Westbrook did in Game 3 what Sabathia and Carmona could not: shut down the Boston offense.

Jake delivered the kind of quality start Cleveland craved, scattering 7 H and 3 BB over 6.2 innings. Westbrook's defining moment came in the 6th when he got Manny Ramirez to ground into an inning ending double play with two men on. Boston's only runs came off a two-run homer by Jason Varitek in the 7th, shortly before Westbrook's night ended.

Jensen Lewis completed the 7th with a strikeout of Dustin Pedroia. Raffy Betancourt and Kevin "that guy from Moneyball" Youkilis locked horns again in the 8th before Raffy retired Ortiz and Ramirez, neutralizing Boston's last legitimate scoring threat. Youkilis had an 11 pitch at-bat against Betancourt in the 9th of Game 2 and an 8 pitch at-bat tonight. Not a fun experience late in the game with Ortiz on-deck.

JoeBo sealed the game with a painless 1-2-3 inning. Borowski has earned two saves this postseason, but it was still nice to see him breeze through the bottom of Boston's lineup. Wedge has shown that Borowski is the undisputed closer for the playoffs, so his body of work thus far is encouraging (4 IP, 2 SV, 2.25 ERA).

The infield defense was sharp and made a crucial contribution to Cleveland's win tonight. Westbrook fed the infield three double play balls tonight, frustrating Boston by staying just out of reach. Westbrook got Ortiz (1st inn.), Crisp (2nd inn.), and Ramirez (6th inn.) to each ground into a DP. Asdrubal Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta made some beautiful plays around the horn, including a snag on the run by AstroCab to start the first DP and steal a hit from Ortiz.

Peralta seemed to be charging the ball and working the pivot all night, to great effect. I honestly don't remember Peralta's defense looking this dynamic before. Say what you will about his regular season habits, but Jhonny has awakened in October.

Westbrook got stronger as the game went on, working around the occasional walk or hit, but never yielding. Sox batters didn't seem to be going for Jake's sinker early on, but started to press after the Tribe took the lead. Westbrook finished with 14 groundball outs and 2 strikeouts. The number of groundball outs is always a good indicator of how well Jake's pitches are working. Judging by some of the enraged, post at-bat reactions from Boston's players, the sinker was working just fine.

It looked like Jake might run into trouble early on as he seemed to be getting squeezed on pitches at the edge of the (supposed) strike zone. I know the crowd reacts unfavorably to many called balls, but seriously. The ump tonight sucked. A lot. Tiny strikezones are one thing, but this guy couldn't even call it consistently. I felt bad for Jake, you could tell that he was annoyed with the ump (lots of long pauses and Wickman-esque grimaces). Fortunately this chump didn't cost us any runs tonight.

After exploding late in Game 3, the offense showed it still had plenty left in the tank for Matsuzaka-san. Matsuzaka did plenty of damage with 6 strikeouts, but the way the Tribe was hammering the ball, it was only a matter of time before they got to Boston's starter. The quality of the Tribe's at-bats steadily improved, but they were just missing the elusive game-breaker. Ryan Garko atoned for his earlier error by smacking a single up the middle to start the 2nd. Kenny Lofton followed up with a homerun that just cleared the right field wall.

Lofton made the first pitch he saw into a souvenir, sending the crowd into a frenzy. You'd have thought he had hit a walk-off by the way the stadium roared; definitely one of my favorite moments of the postseason so far. First Trot Nixon with a game-winning hit, now Kenny Lofton hitting one out of the park? How about that.

The Tribe managed to score two more runs off Matsuzaka before Francona crashed the party. Cleveland's four baserunners were enough to convince Francona to yank his starter in the 5th inning for the second game in a row. The Boston bullpen did it's job, holding Cleveland to 4 runs, but the Tribe's bullpen continued its playoff dominance.

Paul Byrd and Tim Wakefield get the call for Game 4. Wakefield has had mixed results against Eric Wedge's Indians and has not faced them in 2007. I have a feeling Cleveland will have a solid plan of attack for Wakefield. Veterans Kenny Lofton and Trot Nixon should prove useful in helping the rest of the lineup figure out Wakefield's elusive knuckle ball. Byrd has decent career numbers against Boston (4.12 ERA) and has faced them once this season. Byrd gave up 1 ER over 6 IP at Fenway in May.

Breaking Through

Game 2 was absolutely loco. Tom Mastny? Trot Nixon? Seven runs in the 11th inning? Wow. I was exhausted afterward, so I can't imagine how the players must have felt. Probably pretty pumped, judging by the post-game celebrations. If there was ever a doubt in my mind that Cleveland could hang with Boston in this series, it was erased during Game 2.

Fausto Carmona did not fare well in this game. Like Sabathia in Game 1, Carmona struggled with his control all night, walking five on 100 pitches. Carmona appeared to be overthrowing from the start, consistently throwing in the 94-97 MPH range. As sick as a 98 MPH sinker is (just ask Dustin Pedroia), it's not going to get you many strikes if you can't control it.

Fausto threw just 51% of his pitches for strikes and had many erratic breaking balls that Sox batters weren't swinging at. Fausto failed to use his changeup or off-speed slider tonight, allowing the opposition to settle in. I may have missed it, but I don't think Fausto threw less than 90 MPH until the fourth inning (he used two off-speed pitches on Varitek for a K).

Fortunately for the Tribe, Curt Schilling was just as bad, surrendering 5 ER over 4.2 IP. Schilling was far from his best tonight and the Tribe's batters were able to capitalize on his mistakes. Tribe batters worked over the former ace, making him throw 85 pitches before getting pulled early. The Tribe also launched two taters off Schilling, including a 3-run bomb by Peralta to regain the lead in the 4th.

The trio of Jhonny Peralta, Grady Sizemore, and Victor Martinez continued their postseason tear on offense. Peralta leads the team this postseason with 6 RBI, while Grady leads the team in runs with 6. Tonight's line:

Peralta: 3-5 / 3 R / 4 RBI / 1 BB / 1 HR
Sizemore: 3-5 / 3 R / 1 RBI / 1 BB / 1 HR
Martinez: 3-4 / 2 R / 1 RBI / 2 BB / --

Peralta has been a pleasant surprise this series and has shown no signs of cooling off. Jhonny is a great example of why October is considered the second season; all those regular season stats tend to go out the window.

The key to the game for both teams was the bullpen. With both starting pitchers out of commission by the 5th inning, the game switched from a shootout to a pitcher's duel. Cleveland's bullpen depth was what really swung Game 2 in their favor. By the time the 11th inning rolled around, Boston was left with the dregs of its bullpen while Cleveland had yet to use their closer.

It's difficult to say which pitcher had the biggest impact on the game, since Lewis, Betancourt, and Mastny were all outstanding. Each pitcher had a different challenge to face in the team's win: Lewis had to hold Boston to their 6 runs until the Tribe could climb back in it. Betancourt faced off against Papelbon in the 9th and had to contend with an 11 pitch at-bat from Indian killer, Kevin Youkilis, with a man on 2nd.

The breaking point came with Tom "Indonesian Pride" Mastny on the hill. Mastny came on in the bottom of the 10th to face Ortiz, Ramirez, and Lowell. Boston knew their bullpen was spent, so the 10th was their best chance to win, but Mastny threw a perfect inning to let Cleveland face Eric Gagne the next inning. So many guys stepped up tonight, but Mastny is the one that stands out for me; he took his game to another level when it mattered most.

Just how deep is Cleveland's pitching staff? Well, when your best starter and second best reliever give up 6 runs over 4 innings, almost any other team would be toast. Instead, the Tribe's remaining relievers (Lewis, Raffy, Mastny, JoeBo) gave up just 3 hits over 6.2 innings, while striking out 5 to win the game. That, is depth.

Boston couldn't keep pace, utilizing every reliever in their pen, plus Jon Lester. By the time Papelbon left with the game still tied, it really was a new game.

The Tribe was on the verge of lighting up Gagne until Francona replaced him with Javier Lopez. Wedge replaced Barfield (who pinch-ran for Hafner) with Trot Nixon.

Trot Nixon?

Nixon and I have had a love-hate relationship this season, for obvious reasons, but I had a good feeling about this at-bat. I think a lot of Tribe fans knew something was going to happen when Trot came up to bat though; the setup was just too perfect. Nixon's first postseason appearance in Fenway without a Boston uniform on? I guess that got the Baseball Gods' attention. Nixon smacked a hanging junker into centerfield, scoring Grady on a close play at the plate. His single opened the floodgates as the Tribe scored 7 runs that inning, breaking the postseason record for most runs in a non-regulation inning.

Nixon was in need of some serious redemption after making an error on a routine ball in Game 3 of the ALDS. He more than made up for that performance tonight, so thanks Trot.

It was almost as if the Tribe was letting off some pent-up frustration left over from an embarrasing Game 1. The hapless Boston relievers were just the unfortunate recipients at that point.


Random Notes

Wedgie seemed to be managing with the off-day on Sunday in mind, allowing Lewis and Betancourt to go over two innings each. Their extended outings were actually out of necessity, since Perez got roughed up (.1 IP, 2 HR) and was unable to contribute. Wedge was smart to pull Perez tonight, but I think this was just one of those isolated incidents where he didn't have his best stuff and got rattled. Perez's performance against New York is cause enough for me not to worry about him.

Another agressive move by Wedge was pinch-running for Hafner in the 9th with 2 outs. Granted, Barfield was able to steal secondbase with Victor at the plate, but if Nixon doesn't succeed in his pinch-hit appearance later on, you can bet Wedge would have been raked over the coals for removing Hafner. I think the timing of Barfield coming in (2 outs, Papelbon pitching) was off, but I agree with Nixon coming in with a man on second (not in lieu of Hafner, but in that situation). Boston's reliever, Javier Lopez, posted an .805 OPS against lefties (.565 vs. righties) in 2007, so Wedge made a smart move in countering Francona with Trot. (Ed: Nixon has a career .629 OPS against LHP. So maybe it was a coin flip here, but I still like the move.)

If the Tribe hadn't come up big in Game 2, they would have been in serious trouble for the remainder of the series. After splitting at Fenway, against Boston's top two starters, Cleveland has placed itself in a great position to put a stranglehold on the ALCS at home. All of this went down while the Tribe's top two starters pitched horribly. Cleveland is a very dangerous team, but Boston may not realize until it's too late.

Jake Westbrook faces off against Daisuke Matsuzaka in Cleveland on Monday. It will be intersting to see how the Tribe handles a change of pace in Matsuzaka's pitching style. Cleveland has a reputation of crushing fastball pitchers, but whiffing on guys strong with the breaking ball. Matsuzaka has a 4.26 ERA in 2 career starts against Cleveland and a 4.02 road ERA on the season.

The Elephant in the Dugout

What's up with Cleveland's aces? The hype around Sabathia and Carmona was certainly justified coming into the playoffs. Many analysts picked Cleveland to go deep in the playoffs based on the performance of their top-flight starters. Here's what the Tribe has gotten out of Sabathia and Carmona this postseason:

Game	Player	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	HR	Pitches- Strikes	GB-FB
ALDS Game 1	Sabathia	5	4	3	6	5	2	114-62	1-8
ALCS Game 1		4.1	7	8	5	3	0	85-44	4-3
Game	Player	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	HR	Pitches- Strikes	GB-FB
ALDS Game 3	Carmona	9	3	1	2	5	1	113-77	16-4
ALCS Game 2		4	4	4	5	5	2	100-51	4-2

The glaring line for Sabathia is his BB-SO ratio. Sabathia came in with a dominant 5.65 K/BB ratio, but has a 1.37 ratio in two games this postseason. That speaks to his lack of control and the ineffectiveness of his strikeout pitches, the changeup and slider. Sabathia seems to have the same issue as Carmona had in the ALCS; he's overthrowing the ball and his control is suffering because of it.

I almost never saw Sabathia fire away in the 95-97 MPH range on a regular basis during the season. He has not mixed in his off-speed and breaking pitches effectively and has had a hard time putting away batters. Sabathia will go up two strikes on a batter, but often struggle after that.

I'm still sticking with my earlier assertion that C.C.'s breakdown is mostly mental. There's no other explanation for such a drastic divergence from his regular season and career numbers in just two starts. Maybe he's still rattled from pitching in October? My hope is Sabathia has a long talk with whoever he turns to for help, be it Carl Willis or another pitcher, and then locks himself in the film room to fix it. It's as if everything he learned about pitching the last two seasons has left him. Simply put, he needs to get it back, and fast.

Carmona is an odd case. The kid was lights out against New York, but couldn't find the strikezone against Boston. Go figure. I broke down Fausto's overthrowing issue earlier and like I said, his issues appear to be similar to C.C.. It's possible the Fenway crowd or all those horror stories he's heard about Ortiz and Ramirez got to him, but Fausto has never been one to shy away from a challenge. A more logical antagonist is what happened to Fausto the last time he pitched in Fenway. Saturday was Fausto's first appearance in Fenway since his stint as closer ended in dramatic fashion during the 2006 season. I may be grasping at straws here, but it's something to think about.